Bowls

[BiffTFinancial]

College teams roll over so fast now. It's hard for me to look at stats for past teams in past years. At least in the pros they tend to keep the same foundations.

i agree for the most part. there's just not denying that Lester's bowl teams have probably far outscored their team total (of course, their bowl defense has been light's out). oh well, i'm probably over-thinking it, a loss is a loss.

[BiffTFinancial]

in today's wildcard games, i'm leaning Seattle and under (think Saints win, 21-16) and Indy and over (Colts, 31-24). not sure yet what i'll play.

[BiffTFinancial]

i'm playing 4* Jets/Colts over 44'. i think that the line is going to go up and it's the option i like best in the NFL today.

[goodguys]

great theory

[BiffTFinancial]

also like Cuse and FSU/VT under in college hoops today. Georgia and UConn may also be worth a look.

[zuluhead1``1]

Seahawks should cruise to a victory now. Up 41-30. Glad I was away from home and didn't have a lean because I would have been wrong. I like Indy -3 tonight, I don't care for the over/under. Anyone have any ideas on GB/Philly? I'm leaning GB ML.

[BiffTFinancial]

Seahawks should cruise to a victory now. Up 41-30. Glad I was away from home and didn't have a lean because I would have been wrong. I like Indy -3 tonight, I don't care for the over/under. Anyone have any ideas on GB/Philly? I'm leaning GB ML.

i ended up playing Seattle +10. Packers +3 is my big play in the NFL this week. i paid a little juice, but i'm okay with it. Jets/Colts over not off to a good start.

[BiffTFinancial]

also like the Baltimore/KC over some too.

[Rick22]

Good luck on the Pack. It's my homer pick of the week!

[Rick22]

Biff - never noticed before, but you and I joined SBR on the same day.

[BiffTFinancial]

Good luck on the Pack. It's my homer pick of the week!

thanks, BOL to you - go Pack! this is a big play for me, 5u to win 4 with the juice. i'm also playing the over in the early game and looking at some college hoops.

Biff - never noticed before, but you and I joined SBR on the same day.

hmmm, that is weird....great minds think alike, i suppose, heh heh.

[terrortwylight]

nice small hit on seattle ML yesterday.. biff i'm loving that baltimore/kc over 41, numbers certainly suggest this thing is going over. baltimore D isnt the same as old..

2* over 41

BOL

[terrortwylight]

damn. bad call.

[terrortwylight]

i'm definitely chasing now.. oh god haha

3* eagles -1 (-120, bought a hook)

[BiffTFinancial]

Ravens/Chiefs over was rough. takes two to make an over, and i didn't see the Ravens' defense shutting KC down completely. bah. hit a couple of college hoops 2H plays to help make up for Ravens game, i'm on Kansas/Michigan over and Indiana State in college hoops, both relatively small (fyi, there is potentially fishy line movement on that total). lean under and BC in the bowl game later, but not enough to play them. go Packers.

[BiffTFinancial]

i'm definitely chasing now.. oh god haha

3* eagles -1 (-120, bought a hook)

uh-oh. well, we can both cash if the eagles win by 2, zulu on GB ML i think. BOL terrortwylight, going out to dinner with wife to watch late game.

[BiffTFinancial]

also, officially booked earlier today

5* Auburn -2

there really aren't stats to back this up. i think that Auburn's speed on the d-line will slow Oregon's spread option (similar to OSU's in the Rose Bowl last year, and Auburn's faster). Cam Newton is the best player in the game and will ensure that Auburn wins by multiple scores. i know that the line movement says Ducks, but my eyes say War Eagle.

[WarEagle43]

Thanks for all you do..long time follower, just signed on. I think you are dead on about Newton, he may be the best player that we will see in our lifetime...he seems to to have an uncontrollable desire to win...noone on this end expected a season like this, but this team is humble and I agree that they get it done and more than cover the number, and once again, thanks for all you do!

[zuluhead1``1]

he may be the best player that we will see in our lifetime

I think that may be a bit of an over statement.

That being said, I just locked in 5 units on Auburn -2.

The Pack came through in a big way, and put me back where I need to be on my money. I was never down, but it got a little close for comfort.

[BiffTFinancial]

Thanks for all you do..long time follower, just signed on. I think you are dead on about Newton, he may be the best player that we will see in our lifetime...he seems to to have an uncontrollable desire to win...noone on this end expected a season like this, but this team is humble and I agree that they get it done and more than cover the number, and once again, thanks for all you do!

thanks, war eagle, i really appreciate that. most of my plays are based upon statistical angles/mismatches, but stats go off the tracks here (the big problem being that objective stats and particularly strength of schedule appear to be misleading here - the PAC-10 gets an SOS bump for playing 9 conference games instead of 8). i've had a solid month to think about it, and i can't talk myself out of Auburn. the more cappers and pundits who pick Oregon, the more i like Auburn. Cam Newton will be the guy that we all remember, but this game will be dictated in a less obvious way by Auburn's d-line. Oregon doesn't run a ton of plays, but can run all of them from any formation. Auburn will stay in looks to keep Oregon with the spread option, count on their d-line to match (or over-match) Oregon's o-line, and have two guys devoted to that spread option on every play. getting psyched already, it's gonna be a long 12 hours until kickoff. BOL to you and thanks again for the kind words.

[BiffTFinancial]

I think that may be a bit of an over statement.

That being said, I just locked in 5 units on Auburn -2.

The Pack came through in a big way, and put me back where I need to be on my money. I was never down, but it got a little close for comfort.

yep, Packers plus War Eagle can make up for the last two CFB losses on unders and Jets/Colts, Ravens/Chiefs overs. glad that we're on the same page here zulu (though i was pretty sure that you'd be on Auburn after previous discussions). monster day at work today, probably won't be able to check back in to thread until at least 6 tonight. BOL to all - War Newton, War Fairley, War Malzahn, WAR EAGLE.

[zuluhead1``1]

Roll Tide.


I won't be rooting for Auburn. I won't be rooting for the SEC. I won't be rooting for the state of Alabama. I hope Oregon kills Auburn. But I don't like losing my money, so I am going in big on Auburn. Mismatches on on side of the ball are my biggest factors in who I place large bets on. Like last night. Packers pass rush vs the Eagles O-line was not even close (though I give it to Philly, they did better than I thought they would.) I think just about any team in the nation would be mismatched vs Auburn in one category or another. TCU would probably have the best chance of any team to put them away. The only way I see Auburn dropping this one is if they start off slow like they have in a lot of games, because Oregon can and will run away with the game. Auburn's secondary will have to step up their game, because Oregon will drop points on them. This game will come down to turn overs (fumbles, picks, AND punts). Whoever has the least will win.

[Rick22]

With you Zulu. I hate the SEC. The Pack helped me out yesterday and I'm not giving any back tonite. Just going to put some SBR points on Oregon and the over and hope for a wild game. There'll always be another game to bet and one thing I've learned from the good" cappers here is don't push it. Good luck to you guys tonite.

[BiffTFinancial]

Roll Tide.


I won't be rooting for Auburn. I won't be rooting for the SEC. I won't be rooting for the state of Alabama. I hope Oregon kills Auburn. But I don't like losing my money, so I am going in big on Auburn. Mismatches on on side of the ball are my biggest factors in who I place large bets on. Like last night. Packers pass rush vs the Eagles O-line was not even close (though I give it to Philly, they did better than I thought they would.) I think just about any team in the nation would be mismatched vs Auburn in one category or another. TCU would probably have the best chance of any team to put them away. The only way I see Auburn dropping this one is if they start off slow like they have in a lot of games, because Oregon can and will run away with the game. Auburn's secondary will have to step up their game, because Oregon will drop points on them. This game will come down to turn overs (fumbles, picks, AND punts). Whoever has the least will win.

love the emotional hedge and genuine hate for your rival. i'd root for the Big Ten in any national title game, but no way could i root for Michigan. i agree with your assessment of the matchups, Auburn's secondary is key. can't say i'm an SEC fan, but hard to argue with how that conference tests its teams for the big stage.

[BiffTFinancial]

With you Zulu. I hate the SEC. The Pack helped me out yesterday and I'm not giving any back tonite. Just going to put some SBR points on Oregon and the over and hope for a wild game. There'll always be another game to bet and one thing I've learned from the good" cappers here is don't push it. Good luck to you guys tonite.

Pack was grand, now just need Auburn to back it up. the line movement sucks, seems as if the entire world is on Oregon, though, hard to believe that 60+% is on Auburn. i want to up my Auburn bet, but i'm going to sit tight at 5, that's supposed to be my max, line movement gives me a good excuse to stay. nice start by Marquette tonight, rick, shooting lights out. BOL to you too.

[terrortwylight]

man.. i bought auburn @ -3 like a month ago, i feel like a chump. my book has it @ pk right now! if anything i saw this line going the other way..

so..
5* auburn -3

BOL biff. you and me buddy. for real though. i think we got this.

[zuluhead1``1]

Get it in now. Win some money on Auburn.

[BiffTFinancial]

man.. i bought auburn @ -3 like a month ago, i feel like a chump. my book has it @ pk right now! if anything i saw this line going the other way..

so..
5* auburn -3

BOL biff. you and me buddy. for real though. i think we got this.

yeah, i almost wish that i'd had the foresight to take Oregon +3 or +3' then Auburn +1 now. i won't say that i'm not anxious, but Auburn's my play and this is essentially a referendum on RLM in big bowls. if you blindly played line movement from new year's on, you backed UConn, Michigan, Penn State, Sparty, Virginia Tech and got buried during that stretch.

my numbers and the line movement say Oregon, but i really think Auburn is the play. Auburn has the matchups (other than possible secondary issues) and the best player, and they've come back from the dead before. in college sports, God love 'em, that's how i make my decisions. War Eagle.

[BiffTFinancial]

Get it in now. Win some money on Auburn.

wish i had the plums to double my bet. i don't.

[terrortwylight]

nice 3 and out to start!!!

[terrortwylight]

aaaand then we do the same thing. boo.

[terrortwylight]

WE GOT AN INT.

guys i promise i'll stop. i'm a little jumpy. i threw another 2 units on pk.

[BiffTFinancial]

heh heh. who knew that the 1H under was the play?

Auburn defense getting gassed, caught in personnel change. fak.

[zuluhead1``1]

Don't get discouraged yet. Theres a ton of game left. If "No score in first quarter" was a prop on this game, I wonder what the odds would have been.

Also, I am fairly certain that Terrance Cody from Bama's NC would have been better in secondary pass coverage than Niko Thorpe.

[terrortwylight]

leaving 7 pts on the field. biff, i concur, FAK.