Bowls

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Fresno State +1'
3* Troy -3

as a MAC fan, i can say from experience that fading the MAC come bowl time is sound investment advice. Here, NIU lost their coach and OU their starting QB, so neither team should look as solid as they did during the conference schedule.

BOL to all this weekend.

[The Madcap]

I like Fresno and Troy myself. Didn't know that about Ohio losing their QB. Makes me feel even better.

[BiffTFinancial]

I like Fresno and Troy myself. Didn't know that about Ohio losing their QB. Makes me feel even better.

yep. OU 8-0 this year when scoring 30+, 0-4 when they don't. Troy's defense is nothing special, but without Jackson, i think OU will struggle to get more than about 24 (they regularly rotate QBs, but Jackson plays more and is the better of the two). gl to you this weekend.

[Retrospect]

but ohio play well backup qb?

[JMF2479]

I like these two plays as well Knowing their situations

[BiffTFinancial]

but ohio play well backup qb?

Bates, the backup, is good on the ground (as is Jackson). Bates is not the big-play threat through the air that Jackson is.

I like these two plays as well Knowing their situations

thanks. i don't like that the Troy line has dipped down to 2' or 2 at some places, but there is no new news on Jackson or Hodge (DT who also has academic issues), and i've been looking for the last few days. the word as of two days ago from multiple papers (Columbus and NO) was that both were left behind from the trip, and then line went up to 3. i grabbed it there thinking it would go to 3'. oh well, i'm fine with 3, like it better at smaller number obviously. because of the line movement, you could be cautious and wait in case there is some sort of late news. bowl games can be weird, but with Jackson still in Athens, OH 24 hours before kickoff, it looks like he's out. in the other game, Pat Hill does a great job of getting Fresno up as a dog and has Rouse back healthy in the backfield, plus NIU has the coaching issue and Fresno will get a bit of a travel/homefield bump on the blue turf. i love the MAC, but they're generally awful in bowls. let's go 2-0.

[BiffTFinancial]

good lord, the eastern washington turf is awful. i feel as if i'm having a flashback.

[DrAwInGdEaD]

[Big Dave's Picks]

Hey Biff I appreciate your analysis on the first Sat. of bowl season. I look to tail you on the two picks. BOL to you sir and look forward to your further analysis.
Thanks again, Big Dave

[chaseutleyfan26]

man, i was about to bet on ohio. good thing you let me know that they lost their qb.

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Fresno +1' - LOSER
3* Troy -3 - WINNER

1-1 -0.3u. one bad pick, one easy winner. bah. MAC picked up their 2nd win in their last 17 bowl appearances with NIU pasting Fresno, and NIU didn't seem to suffer from the coaching change at all. bizarre that Boo Jackson played for OU after having supposedly being left behind (and that no one reported it), glad that didn't end affecting the Troy pick. oh well, at least i was right that OU wouldn't be able to get to 30, even if part of my reasoning was incorrect.

[the12thman]

the bowl season is early, I hate this 3 day wait after saturday

[BiffTFinancial]

the bowl season is early, I hate this 3 day wait after saturday

me too. leaning Louisville, but watching the line movement. hard to believe that 60+% of the public is on So Miss.

[chiliv5]

louisville is bad, i know so miss aint nothin to write home about, but louisville sucks....

[zuluhead1``1]

Southern Miss is the play here IMO. BOL

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Louisville -2'

lean under, but like UL -2' better. with Bilal Powell and their QBs having had time to get healthy, UL should shorten the game from the start, relying upon their 12th ranked defense and Powell in the running game to keep USM's high-octane offense off the field. while USM's run defense has put up decent numbers, they haven't faced many good backs (Powell may be the best they've seen since W1, when they held Marcus Lattimore to 54 yards but allowed S Carolina to roll up 224 total rushing). this is a huge game for UL, which would love to finish off Charlie Strong's first year with a bowl win. UL, 30-23.

[BiffTFinancial]

louisville is bad, i know so miss aint nothin to write home about, but louisville sucks....

i don't know about sucks. they've made significant progress on defense and in running game. they've been inconsistent, had injury problems, and put up a bad game against Pitt, but i watched pretty much all of their last game against Rutgers and was surprised how much they've improved over the course of the year. if nothing else, Powell and their defense give them a legit identity, something that they've lacked since Petrino left.

Southern Miss is the play here IMO. BOL

i hope that you're wrong, but BOL to you too.

[zuluhead1``1]

i don't know about sucks. they've made significant progress on defense and in running game. they've been inconsistent, had injury problems, and put up a bad game against Pitt, but i watched pretty much all of their last game against Rutgers and was surprised how much they've improved over the course of the year. if nothing else, Powell and their defense give them a legit identity, something that they've lacked since Petrino left.



i hope that you're wrong, but BOL to you too.

You as well. I don't have a play here, so I hope Louisville turns it around, I'm never too hungry to eat my words.

[zuluhead1``1]

3* Louisville -2'

lean under, but like UL -2' better. with Bilal Powell and their QBs having had time to get healthy, UL should shorten the game from the start, relying upon their 12th ranked defense and Powell in the running game to keep USM's high-octane offense off the field. while USM's run defense has put up decent numbers, they haven't faced many good backs (Powell may be the best they've seen since W1, when they held Marcus Lattimore to 54 yards but allowed S Carolina to roll up 224 total rushing). this is a huge game for UL, which would love to finish off Charlie Strong's first year with a bowl win. UL, 30-23.

[BiffTFinancial]

You as well. I don't have a play here, so I hope Louisville turns it around, I'm never too hungry to eat my words.

heh heh, thanks. gotta say, feeling lucky to walk away from this one a winner. i even played my under lean at the last minute and won that one by a point. better to be lucky that good, most days.

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Louisville -2' - WINNER

2-1 +2.7u

[BiffTFinancial]

4* Utah/Boise State under 59'

i know that the pre-Christmas bowls have skewed over the past few years, but long-term, i love the unders in bowl matchups between teams from second-tier conferences. everyone focuses on Boise's offense, but their defense is outstanding, and with Jordan Wynn not playing for Utah, the under looks solid. Boise, 31-20, and i think 20 is probably the max that Utah can get without Wynn. 31-14 is easy to envision too.

[BiffTFinancial]

4* Utah/Boise State under 59' - WINNER

3-1 +6.7u for bowl season.

wow, my mind is totally changed. we must institute some dumbass playoff system stat so that i can see Boise lose to Wisconsin by 30. leaning Navy/SDSU over, Navy and Tulsa in the next two games, but not sure yet. like the over best of those, and have reservations about both Navy and Tulsa (Navy because a lot of value is gone from that line; Tulsa because Hawaii has a strong tendency to blow teams out on the island and Tulsa's pass defense is bad (8.1 OPP YPA vs Hawaii's stellar 9.0 YPA is a big red flag)).

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Tulsa/Hawaii over 73

went back and forth on this one, but i just can't back Tulsa's pass defense on the island against Hawaii's pass offense. better to bank on there being 11-12 scores regardless of who gets them. Hawaii, 44-40.

still mulling over Poinsettia Bowl as well. i don't think that it makes sense to back Navy on a questionable field (esp now that spread only +3), as it may hinder one of their strengths (the FB up the gut in the option). i like the over 58', and am liking it more and more as i read people talking about the under as a lock because the parking lot is flooded. to be fair, i am glad that they're not playing in the parking lot. anywho, it's looking like over or no-play to me (and perhaps the smart money is on no-play....).

[zuluhead1``1]

Good record so far man! I'm sitting at 3-1 as well, missing that Louisville game.

[BiffTFinancial]

Good record so far man! I'm sitting at 3-1 as well, missing that Louisville game.

thanks, pal - you too. if UL/USM is the one game you missed, you're doing really well given that that's the biggest coinflip game we've had so far.

been staring at the Poinsettia total moves all day. gripping. i think it's going to tick back up as we get closer to gametime.

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Navy/SDSU over 58'

the NFL grounds crew has had time to get the field back together, and the weather for the game is supposed to be fine. and if footing is a little unsure, that will favor SDSU's pass game against Navy's DBs and probably affect that more than any other match-up. SDSU beat Air Force both of Hoke's seasons, but didn't exactly shut down the triple option, and Navy's is better. The better athletes are on offense by far in this game, and Navy historically plays pretty high scoring bowl games. My initial forecast for this game was 36-33 Navy, so even if we even it out a bit it SDSU can really exploit Navy's DBs, still think both teams are in mid 30s. i think that the weather just got us some value from the opener of 60'. BOL to all tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

Middies need to switch cleats. for the record, footing is a bit of an issue.

[MartinBlank]

That over is looking good Biff.

I figure they both put up 14 more-----Good luck!

[BiffTFinancial]

That over is looking good Biff. I figure they both put up 14 more-----Good luck!

thanks, martin. a 4th down conversion by Navy would've been sweet there, but can't complain.

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Navy/SDSU over 58' - LOSER

bah. 3-2 +3.4u for bowls, Tulsa/Hawaii over pending.

[zuluhead1``1]

I was 1-1 on that game. Got the SDSU -3 easily and got reamed on the over.

[BiffTFinancial]

I was 1-1 on that game. Got the SDSU -3 easily and got reamed on the over.

yeah, that was frustrating. glad you hit on SDSU, wish i'd played that instead of the over. oh well, onward and upward.

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Tulsa/Hawaii over 73 - WINNER

4-2 +6.4u for the bowls.

Merry Christmas, happy holidays to all.

[bornselling]

3* Troy -3