Plays that do not fit rules of RLM but appear over last 2 weeks as poss winners

[goallinebob]

1st let me say, i am far from an expert in all this and what rules do and do not apply.

With this only being my 3rd week in following all this it does intrigue me with the plays that do not fit requirements exactly,, # of bets,, Percentages on a specific side,,all other rules,etc,etc,,,,,,,,,I just see a lot of plays with a little tweaking could be plays and have an excellent win percentage,,so why exclude them,,,?????

As i said i'm far from an expert in all this as some are well more knowledgeable in all this,, but i wanted to post my finding over a very short period( 2 weeks),, and if someone else has been tracking all this i request you to get involved and post your findings as well.

I know from watching the experts here post what must happen but what if all the requirements are not met,,,one of these teams still will win and one will lose,,i don't want to discard them that quickly

This is what i have found over the last 2 weeks in review,,,,Remember we all get opening and closing lines at different times so all must review their past records for legitimacy,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

I have found the following

If the opening line and closing line does not change or is the same at kickoff,the favorite wins more that they lose,,,last 2 weeks my lines went ( 16-7)

If the opening line and closing line has a .05 differential between both ,,,the favorite win percentage was 12-2,, pretty good ( example -6 to -6.5),,,(-7.5 to -8) an increase of -.05

If the reverse happened to occur,,,Example ( -6.5 to -6 ) the result was 4-7,,,,

Thus i guess the rule for a 1 point requirement,,,,,but why do we need to lose playing that 12-2 win %,,??????

Maybe the 2 week experiment is not long enough and could be a negative approach and if anyone has any records of all this for past seasons please jump in,,,

additionally I have found the full 1 point requirement has a more valid RLM both for the favorite and dog regardless of # of bets on either side,,thus against the actual RLM understanding and meaning,, so what i'm saying is forget RLM and if either side gets a 1 point advantage play it,,,if you like it,,,( -1 increase went 4-1 and - 1 decrease went 7-4)

1.5 went more as the true RLM requires -1.5,,,,play the dog,,+1.5 ( 4-0) the opposite went 1-2,,,,,,,

there were not many in higher #'s to take a position on,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Understand this for me is just last 2 weeks as i have seen it and yes a season under ones belt would be a more definitive review,,, maybe someone else has tracked all this and i'm not the only one out there alone in all this,, trying to make sense out of all this

Anyway it is what it is and i will track it for the season and maybe next year i will have a better handle on all this,,,,,,

[goallinebob]

t nites game as i see it

MTS favorite 44% giving points but public 56% on Ark St ,,play is MTS,, additionally plays that involved a -.05 negative increase over the opening line is 12-2 to the favorite over the last 2 weeks,,,GL on your plays

additionally where lines stay same as opening lines ,,,,,also prevail ,,last 2 weeks 16-7

Also dogs with Higher bet percentage over favorites do not fare well visit Diesels thread,, 7-2 last saturday,,

[goallinebob]

additionally Game does not fit RLM rules without a 1 point spread,,,sports inights shows a current line of -2 only a .05 differential,, but covers shows the line is back to - 1.5

[Nepaa]

interesting thread

[piffd]

at -2.5 now thats a full point

[goallinebob]

well MTS was a total disaster,, What 4 interceptions and 3 i believe fumbles,,,what a PATHETIC team,,,,,,
yeaa RLM did not have the 60% so in all was a NP,,,,,,but i played it any way with a -1 point move

If not for all the miscues they had a chance to win that game,,,,as pack says don't play very bad teams
another note i ignored,,,,,,its OK as i played it very small,,,but anoyes me that the line still did move 1 point,,

South Fla is looking as the play t nite with opening line -9.5 going so far to -10.5,,,,This also matches Diesel's going against the dog plays,,,,with 52 % or more on the DOG,,,,,,,lets go S Fla,,,,

Ohio and G Tech also are looking like plays at this time

WMU is a -05 negative down( -4.5 to -4 )so is a NP at a win rate of 4-7 over the last 2 weeks

Houston appears as a upcoming play with CFU opening line at -3.5 to cur -2 = -1.5 line move and 63% on them,, this i believe is a true RLM play without all the other rules so far (# of bets Etc),,,,stay tuned

additional plays but too early for final selection
Army
MD
Clem
Syrc
Mich
Fla
Haw
Utah St
Stanf
N Mex
Tenn
Utep

these are all on the watch list

[goallinebob]

what i would also like to see is how many plays drop off as plays or change from a Wednesday review to the day and time of the play as i like to play a few parlays and maybe i can find a % of plays that do not change but follow the same path thru game day,,,

[goallinebob]

updates casino's lines,,,,

S Carol now a -1 (-3 to -4)

T TECH WAS + 5 NOW + 4

[goallinebob]

Packbackers plays so far,,,,,

"Games I am tracking for this week" i have 7 Picked ) *

South Florida,,*
Ga Tech,,*
Houston,,*
Maryland,,*
Clemson,,,*
Northwestern
South Carolina,, now a +1 spread was +3 now +4
Hawaii,,,*
Texas A&M
Idaho
New Mexico,,,*
UCLA
Texas Tech,,, looks great so far with 1 point spread ( showed up today) wed

balance of plays are .05 spreads so need watching for RLM rules

[goallinebob]

understand this thread does not follow all the rules as req,,,,,

balance of plays are .05 spreads so need watching for RLM rules( System has them almost all -05 and they have not fared well over last 2 weeks ( 4-7) not good,, so waiting and watching is the requirement

[goallinebob]

correction

South Carolina,, now a -1 spread was -3 now -4

this shit is tricky,,,,

[goallinebob]

gonna parlay these together t nite

S Fla
GT
Houston
MD
Clem
Haw
N Mex
adding South Carolina,, now a +1 spread was +3 now +4
S Carolina,,,,,,,,i'll take that 1 point spread,,,

[goallinebob]

S fla up 7,,,,,,,

[goallinebob]

My dog system play
38% S. Florida -10 (-105)

My Dog System Record
26-12
68%
+13.25 units

________________________________________ ___________________


diesel's( aka Iceman's Pending plays)

SO. FLORIDA
CENT MICH
TULSA
COLORADO
FRESNO ST
SO CAROLINA
FIU
SMU
CLEMSON
DUKE
MICHIGAN

[goallinebob]

Damnnn S Fla shit the bed on us,, and a RLM goes down,,,,,,we'll get it back t nite with Geo Tech as that is really looking good and line is -2 as of now,, gonna double up from last 2 nights loses,,and a little more

[goallinebob]

Jumping on OHIO too,, not a RLM but for me when theres a 2 point change i'll follow the favorite,,,,,JP does win as last 2 nights have shown,,,

[goallinebob]

Just reviewed all plays for this week at Sportsinsights lines one hour ago,,understand i am not following rules for RLM just point spreads from opening to current line,,no ,,# of bets or % on one side or the other,,,

Teams with same lines from opening to current ( last 2 weeks the W/L ratio was 16/7
Iowa
Mich
Wisc
Mich St
Okla St
Fla
Ball St
ECU
UAB
FAU
FIU
I expect most of these teams to win and cover per the 16-7
________________________________________ __
-05 to the positive ( teams this week so far) Examp (open line was -6.5 and curr is -7,,a -.05 increase) Record last 2 weeks was 12-2
Syrc
BC
FSU
BYU
Alab
SDS
_____________________________
Teams with a -05 to the Negative ( Examp -7.5 to -7),,not good over last 2 weeks ( 4-7)
Colorado
Temp
S Miss
Neb
Tx
TCU
Cal
USC
_______________________________-
Teams with a full point to the positive ,,Examp (- 4.5 to -5.5)( My plays),,,4-1
Clem
duke
S Carol
Stanf
Miss
__________________________________
Teams with a 1 point to the negative and RLM possibilities ( per experts if all rules apply) last 2 weeks 7-4
Penn St
Tulsa
Okla
fresno
Missouri
Per RLM you play opposite these teams( I will play all regardless of rules)
________________________________________ _____________
Teams with a -1.5 to the positive,,Examp -7.5 to -9,, last 2 weeks 1-2
Utah St
Tenn
________________________________________ ______
Teams with a -1.5 to the Negative and a strong RLM play,,(rules or no rules i will play all teams opposite that are listed.. ( Examp,,, -11.5 to - 10),, great win % 4-0

Boise
Nevada
Wyo
Oreg St
SMU
All these teams are expected to not cover per RLM,,,
________________________________________ ________________________________
if lines stay the same then all these plays will be the ones i will play this week,, i also want to monitor all these plays to see actually how many actually change and don't by Saturday,, so poss i can apply a parlay next week on thursday,for that weeks card

One play that is very strange is the Oregon line 8 points from opening with locker out,,,

[goallinebob]

need to clear this up as not written as well as i could

Teams with a 1 point to the negative and RLM possibilities ( per experts if all rules apply) last 2 weeks 7-4
Penn St
Tulsa
Okla
fresno
Missouri
Per RLM you play opposite these teams( I will play all opposite all these teams regardless of rules)

[goallinebob]

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[goallinebob]

appears i forgot a few,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Geo tech is a great RLM play with a 1.5 line drop and JP all over VT

Taking a shot with Ohio although not a RLM play but i like that Minus 2 point spread for favorite ,,,,,,,,,Favorite could prevail,,,if past is correct

over looked Army play
AF -7.5 to -6.5 a 1 point drop and major % on AF

Mia with a -11 and now a - 7.5 is a 3.5 drop, so MD appears as the play although % is about even so not a strong RLM play but sure looks good

[goallinebob]

Ohio and GT both up 7,,,,,,,long way to go though,,,,,,

[goallinebob]

plays against the dog

CMU
Clem
Mich
S Car
Color
FIU,,,

Ohio and GT both up 14,,, need to overcome that tues and wed disasters,,,

[goallinebob]

OHIO and GT are winners,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[goallinebob]

Geo tech is a great RLM play with a 1.5 line drop and JP all over VT,,

Taking a shot with Ohio although not a RLM play but i like that Minus 2 point spread for favorite ,,,,,,,,,Favorite could prevail,,,if past is correct,,,

Army play
AF -7.5 to -6.5 a 1 point drop and major % on AF

Mia with a -11 and now a - 7.5 is a 3.5 drop, so MD appears as the play although % is about even so not a strong RLM play but sure looks good

[goallinebob]

Current update of teams that lines have not changed,, Sportsinsights is the Law book of lines

Teams with same lines from opening to current ( last 2 weeks the W/L ratio was 16/7

Mich
Wisc
Fla
Ball St
ECU
FAU
FIU
Troy
I expect most of these teams to win and cover per the 16-7

[goallinebob]

-05 to the positive ( teams this week so far) Examp (open line was -6.5 and curr is -7,,a -.05 increase) Record last 2 weeks was 12-2

IOWA now moved into this area,,from a steady line
MSU ,,,,,ditto
Okla St,,ditto
UAB,,,,,,ditto
Syrc
BC
FSU
BYU
Alab
SDS

[sos41]

Bob, I hadn't seen many posts other than your own and I wanted you to know I have found the thread very interesting and I will be following the scenarios very close this weekend. I find the No line movement the most interesting and thought you might also track the ranges of lines that dont move. I would expect the lines to more firm and solid on the key numbers 3, 7, 10 14 etc.

BOL
Scott

[DarkNite]

Thanks. Very interesting and good lesson

[goallinebob]

morn Scott welcome yeaaa i want to dig very deep into all this and although just started on my own keeping records,,i think there could be some value in all this,,,,,,,,,,,yes RLM is good but there seems to be a lot of other things occurring that is overlooked just by playing RLM,,,,,,,,No line movements also intrigues me and all various lines and levels,,,Just trying to monitor it and use one web site sports insights as the law of lines for opening and closing,,,,,,happy to welcome you and please get involved as i can use the help and insight from another,,,,,,,

[goallinebob]

these teams and lines have not changed from opening,,and will be monitored to game start

Mich -3,
Wisc -20
Fla -14
Ball St -13.5
ECU -3
FAU -2.5
FIU -9.5
Troy - 11.5

[Bando]

Hi Bob,

Good to see you still hard at work finding some angles. I had Oh and GT as well

I tracked this, along with some steam plays. They were profitable but two things I noticed.

1. Weekday games are GOOFY. My theory is that with a limited board there is unusual action. I don't get caught up in RLM for these games.

2. Higher lines are GOOFY. People might pound an OR at 28, just cuz they know they can buy it back at +32 later in the week. Thus, the action is weird.

All that said, the vast majority of the games I am on this week had early rlm or steam to my side.http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...-bad-ugly.html

Also, I write down the opening lines for all games right when they come out at wynn's or bookmaker. I do not trust these sites not to change the opening lines midweek. Anyone else noitice that the opner for UCF/HOU used to be 4.5 on sbr odds page, and now it is 3.5. Both are valid. Bookmaker opened it at 4.5 and it was bet down to 3.5 so quickly that when 5dimes opened it, it was at 3.5. Nonetheless, do not trust sportsinsights openers. It is a bit more work but use wynn's or bookmaker.

I look forward to seeing your card this week. As usual, I follow your thread/reasoning/analysis - but many have a hard time with it. If you just Post plays at some point in BIG BOLD LETTERS, that will keep the haters away.

[Godsmack]

gl this week goal. you put alot of time in this. very much appreciated

[goallinebob]

Godsmack,,,,,,,

Hi Bando,,, great to see you once again,,,,been a long time,,,,,,,,,,,

I only use sportsinsights and i copy and print their opening line sun night so i know there can be no changes for me for week,,, then i just monitor the lines till game time,,,I have found them to be pretty accurate,,,but i will check wynn's,,,,Haters come and go thats just a standard policy in posing in forums,,

if i recall NCABB was your best sport maybe we can work together,,

[Bando]

Geez, I wish I had a best sport. I am trying to get better. I know what doesn't work. I have spent too much time with numbers and spreadheets; playing games on paper. Looking at early money is a bit of an indicator.

[goallinebob]

well the games are about to be reviewed (record last 2 weeks) not much to go on

per sportsinsights CMU closed at -3 that is a change from opening line of -2.5 =,,,-.05 rise (12-2)

cfu appears as it will close at - 2.5 that is a change from opening line of - 3.5 =,,,,-1 drop,,(7-4)

lets see how these play out,, ( this all gets applied to favorite W / L)