sorry posted that wrong
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been drinking need to post tomorrow,, just win the games,,,,,,
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Bob - these are based on Bookmaker numbers and SBR %
Week 6
RLM (< 1pt move with less than 40%)
Kst, 12 to 11, 31% L
Cuse, 10 to 7, 37% W
Ia St, 7.5 to 6, 17% L
ECU, 9.5 to 8, 37% W
SCar, 7.5 to 6.5, 16% W
LSU, 7.5 to 6.5, 20% W
Tulane, +1 to -1, 20% L
La Tech, +3 to -1.5, 44% W
KY, 8 to 6, 17% W
Rut, 6 to 5, 34% W
A+M, 8.5 to 5, 18% - Bookmaker opened this at 7
W at 8.5, L at 5
BYU, 6 to 4.5, 33%
8-3, 1 W/L
Week 7
RLM: 8-3-1 last week.
(Must move 1 or more point, Public % at SBR at least 60% on opposite side)
W KY, 7 to 4.5, 48%
L TX Tech, 1.5 to -3.5,44%
W KY, +2 to -2.5, 39%
W Miss ST, 9.5 to 7.5, 40%
W Wisc, 5.5 to 4, 37%
Week 8
RLM (Must move 1 at least 1 pt with 40% or less)
12-4-1 since week 6
4-1 last week
W IA ST 22 to 21, 35%
Week 9
RLM
W Duke, 14.5 to 13.5, 39%
I would stop tracking on Th/Fr and make my final list. I think late money is chasing dumb money.Comment -
This week RLM plays
Clemson
Idaho
UCLA
I am already on those three but for different reasons.
Ttech (I am oppo this one
) Think Mizzou is in a much better spot/bounceback
UTEP, havent looked at it but if I have any more money....
GL with these plays.Comment -
Hey Bob, you do know that if these systems pan out, with some tweaks (reverse -0.5 to neg and -1.5 to pos), you will have the potential to accurately predict over 80 % of your games? Last two weeks went 82.85%. This is bookie killer stuff here!Comment -
morn guys with a clear head and was so depressed watching that pathetic game last night with Houston
never saw a team with no defense,,,,,,Lets move on
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what i did was eliminate some of the rlm rules,, everything within this thread is about the #'s only and their records over the last 2 weeks,,,, the hell with % and # of bets Etc
first the -1.5 plays to the negative,,which is to play the DOG(these are RLM plays without all the rules)
( record 2-5) so play the DOG
Boise -22.5 to -21 = play Hawaii
Oreg St -6 to -4.5 = play UCLA
SMU - 8 to - 6.5 ,,,= play UTEP
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Now the 1.5 plays to the positive which will be the favorite( record (3-1)
Clemson - 2.5 to -4 = play Clem
S Carol -3 to - 4.5 ,= play S /C
Utah St -16.5 to -18,,= play Utah St
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Now the -1 Positive plays ( 9-2 Record) play the favorite
Syrcause - 5.5 to -6.5,,, = Play Cuse
Okla St,, - 7.5 to - 8.5,, = play Okie St
Tenn ,,,,,- 18.5 to - 19.5 = play tenn
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-1 negative plays went (7-4),, this area needs to be omitted unless you have strong opinions but your on your own, these teams fit this week,,,but NP for me i need more time to review,,
CFU,, won last night,,
A/F
Tulsa
Okla
Nevada
Missouri
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-05 to the positive went ( 12-2)Examp (-6.5 to -7) teams that fit this week are
Iowa
MSU
FSU
Alab
SDS
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-05 to the negative,,record (3-6) suggest play opposite these teams or NP at all,,,,, teams that fit( posting for record purposes)
B/C
Color
ECU
TX
TCU
Cal
Play these with caution
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Teams with no line change ( Record 12-5) this week they are( Favorites)
Mich
Penn St
Wisc
Fla
BYU
S Miss
Stanf ( they were a -1 to the positive ,,(i may play them anyway)
UAB
If i missed any or if change by game time please adjust accordingly
all lines must be thru Sports insights for final legitimacy
________________________________________ _________________
Note to all
i am not responsible for any mistakes,, we all get diff #'s this is what i have,,, adjust yours accordingly
were all big boys here just trying to get an edge on the book,,, do not tail ,,,this is for my own ,, record keepingComment -
from Page 6 post
WMU is a -05 negative down( -4.5 to -4 )so is a NP at a win rate of 4-7 over the last 2 weeks
correct play was opposite WMU as results show
Houston appears as a upcoming play with CFU opening line at -3.5 to cur -2 = -1.5 line move and 63% on them,, this i believe is a true RLM play without all the other rules so far (# of bets Etc),,,,stay tuned
Pathetic Loss and met all the RLM rules i believe so nothing is guaranteed
additional plays but too early for final selection
Army
MD
Clem
Syrc
Mich
Fla
Haw
Utah St
Stanf
N Mex
Tenn
Utep
these are all on the watch list,, funny from Wednesday most of these teams still are in the play listComment -
good luck Bob
you are obviously putting a lot of work into this
hope you kill it
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Regarding Houston, as I mentioned, I would avoid using line movement as an indicator in weekday games.
Houston was a loser but was in a good spot to win that game - their D is so undisciplined though, against a running QB you gotta stay in your lanes and prevent those outside runs.Comment -
Bandos u never know as won with GT and Ohio,,,,,,,but lost with S Fla
MTS,Houston...,,2-3 week night plays,,,,
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I think after this week i will have a stronger handle on all this,,,,,and i will follow thur the season and be hopefully the wiser next year,,,,,if i'm not broke by then,,,
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my plays( Playing just the Best of the Best)
Haw
Ucla
Utep
Clem
S/C
Utah St
Cuse
Okla St
Tenn
Stanf
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these are official RLM plays from TOTO thread
Army +6.5 (57% of the public is on Air Force with 8087 bets placed. Only playing because it crosses 7)
Maryland +7.5 (Not playing this yet as less than 5,000 bets have been placed. Will keep an eye on it tomorrow)
Clemson -4 (62% are on NC State with 11,791 bets placed. Line moved from +2.5 to +4 for NC State)
South Carolina -4.5 (~6000 bets with 65% on Arkansas. Line moved from +3 to +4.5 for Arkansas)
Hawaii +21 ( 18,263 bets placed with 60% on Boise State and line moved from -22.5 to -21 for Boise State. This one is tough because the spread is pretty high. Game day decision. Not for sure.)
Iowa State +17 (~6000 bets placed with 73% on Nebraska and Nebraska line moved from -18.5 to -17)
Texas A&M +3 (14,380 bets placed with 82% on Oklahoma and Oklahoma line moves -4 to -3)
Idaho +11 (10,635 bets placed with 82% on Nevada and Nevada line moves from -12 to -11.)
New Mexico +9 (KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. Not official play. Not enough bets placed)
UCLA +4.5 (8,467 bets placed with 75% on Oregon State and Oregon State line moving from -6 to -4.5) (UCLA screwed me over last time. Kinda hesitant but will take it.)
Texas Tech +4 (10,922 bets placed with 83% on Missouri and Missouri line moving from -5 to -4)
Arizona State +5 (12,634 bets placed with 72% on USC. Line for USC moved from -6 to -5)
I have quite a few,, now if they can just cover,,,,
Comment -
these are official RLM plays from TOTO thread
Army +6.5 (57% of the public is on Air Force with 8087 bets placed. Only playing because it crosses 7)
Maryland +7.5 (Not playing this yet as less than 5,000 bets have been placed. Will keep an eye on it tomorrow)
Clemson -4 (62% are on NC State with 11,791 bets placed. Line moved from +2.5 to +4 for NC State)
South Carolina -4.5 (~6000 bets with 65% on Arkansas. Line moved from +3 to +4.5 for Arkansas)
Hawaii +21 ( 18,263 bets placed with 60% on Boise State and line moved from -22.5 to -21 for Boise State. This one is tough because the spread is pretty high. Game day decision. Not for sure.)
Iowa State +17 (~6000 bets placed with 73% on Nebraska and Nebraska line moved from -18.5 to -17)
Texas A&M +3 (14,380 bets placed with 82% on Oklahoma and Oklahoma line moves -4 to -3)
Idaho +11 (10,635 bets placed with 82% on Nevada and Nevada line moves from -12 to -11.)
New Mexico +9 (KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. Not official play. Not enough bets placed)
UCLA +4.5 (8,467 bets placed with 75% on Oregon State and Oregon State line moving from -6 to -4.5) (UCLA screwed me over last time. Kinda hesitant but will take it.)
Texas Tech +4 (10,922 bets placed with 83% on Missouri and Missouri line moving from -5 to -4)
Arizona State +5 (12,634 bets placed with 72% on USC. Line for USC moved from -6 to -5)
I have quite a few,, now if they can just cover,,,,
I don't think those are "official" plays bob. I think those were the ones he is keeping an eye on. They were listed for those who want early information.
BOLComment -
your correct,,,, but some are def going to be plays,, just wanted to compare theirs against mineComment -
Plays against the Dog,,total different system,, but 2 plays match
Mia
Clem,, Matches RLM
Mich
S/C matches RLM
ColorComment -
gl today
-playr101Comment -
gl todayComment -
Thanks guys and GL to you also,,,,
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cuse needs to pick it up..
think they will!
2H -4
-playr101Comment -
11 am updates PST( latest Line advantages posted by sportsinsights
BC
Okla St
S carol
Utah st
Tenn
Rice
hawaii
Iowa st
Ucla
UtepComment -
BC,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-1 to positive
Okla St,,,,,,,,, -2.5 to the Positive
S carol,,,,,,,,, -1.5 to positive
Utah st,,,,,,,, - -3 to the positive
Tenn,,,,,,,,,,, - -1 to the positive
Rice ,,,,,,,,,,, - +1 to the negative
hawaii,,,,,,,,, + 1 to the negative
Iowa st,,,,,,, +1.5 to the negative
Ucla,,,,,,,,,,, +1.5 to the Negative
Utep,,,,,,,,,, +1.5 to the NegativeComment -
Missed one big play Miss -2.5 to the positive
-05 to the positive plays( 12 -2)
FSU
BYU
S Miss
Alab
Color St
FIUComment -
sorry Okla St went off early today and naturally there kicking the opposition's ass ,,but was posted in pages above just wanted to repost itComment -
Hey bob, will u be updating this page later on before tonights games?Comment -
i will be watching lines for any changes and if see any will repostComment -
not many plays finished but of the ones done finding interesting info,,,,
of the teams that lines have not changed we have 2 W's and 1 L,,only 3 completed
one large fav -2.5 Okla St won Easily( -7.5 to -10) = -2.5,,all over okla St,,,,
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so far
-05 to negative,, one loss
-1 to negative,,,one loss cmu won over wmu last night
-1 to positive ( Favs to win ) 2 loses Iowa,, Virginia,,,,
-1.5 to the negative ( favs to lose),,AF won,,,Mia and Ball Lost as expected,, 1-2
-1.5 to the positive ( fav exp to cover ) 2 loses,,,,Clem and Syrc
thats all i have as of now,,,,Comment -
correction
that 05 to negative was Michigan,, -3 to - 3.5 so was a -.05 to positive,,,
this is easy to misconstrue,,,Comment -
sorry as said ,,,,easy to misconstrue,, Mich was correct -3 to - 2.5 = a .05 to the negative
and i'm not even drinking,, damnnn may need to post all results tomorrow as its getting near that time,,,,
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New Mexico looking like a great play
wyoming -11 current -8.5 = + 2.5,,,,,love these big #'s,,,Comment -
Late games per sportsinsights update
SC is a-1 to the positive,, play SC
Okla is a -.05 play,to positive, record is 12-2 but don't blame me on these.. just 2 weeks of stats
Tx is a even play but evens usually do well
Stanf is a .05 to the negative ,, not a good play,poss other side ???
Oreg st is a fard play with 1.5 to the negative and a true RLM play i believe and #'s are same,, UCLA
Mizz not good another -05 to the negative
Tenn is a play as -1 to the positive
Smu is a -1.5 fade play ,,play Utep
SDS is a 1.5 to the positive so fav is the play
USC is a -05 to the negative and these do not do well ,NP or poss other side
Miss BEST PLAY t Nite -27 to - 30-5 = -3.5 to the positive ( I'm pounding this),, hope i'm right
FIU is a .05 play to the positive these usually do well,,,,
troy is a .05 to the negative and not a good play,, do as you wish i will pass
GL t Night
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Oreg st is a fard play with 1.5 to the negative and a true RLM play i believe and #'s are same,, UCLA
Oreg st is a FADE play with 1.5 to the negative and a true RLM play i believe and #'s are same,, UCLAComment -
thats it brothers make your choices wisely,,,,,,,damnnn wish i started this 8 weeks ago,, but theres always next yearComment -
final results,, if you just focused on the -1.5 plays to the negative,,,,dogs should cover,,,today 6-2,, only two dogs did not cover
Army
Hawaii
if you just focused on favorites that were expected to cover with -1.5 to positive and played the dogs today you would had been 3-0,,,all 3 favorites did not cover
Clemson
Syrcause
S/carolina
if combined the total win loss for today was ,,,,,9-2,, if add last 2 weeks (6-1)the total would be 15-3
Next week i will be on all the _1.5 dogs and against all 1.5 favorites,, regardless of all rules,,,Comment
