[A Quant]

I am a numbers guy. I want data, data, data, and more data. I can't have enough data points.

How many of you guys know a buddy who tells ya, "I got TEAM A +2"? Or +2.5?

And you look at him like he's a little crazy?

Or how many of you actually bet those numbers?

I want you to think about this the next time you do.

For purposes of this, I am only discussing the 130 1-A teams playing other 1-A teams. I am giving you a 5 year snap. There can be variances over 1 year, but 5 years can give you a fairly decent snap.

Now, another important distinction. This thread focuses on the closing #, or the Saturday morning number as almost all rec bettors play late, few if any, develop power numbers and hunt for the opener. And, hopefully this can help a rec bettor or two.

Lastly, remember. It's about value. Value. Anything to give you the smallest of edges to earn coin.

From 2013 thru 2017 there were 2832 games in 1-A. Of those 2832 games, there were 265 games (9.3%) where the close was 2.5 or less. That's 9% of your available games that close at 2.5 points or less.

Of those 2832 games, 4 of them ended with the underdog covering with either +1.5, +2, or +2.5. That is .14% of the total games. In other words, 99.86% of the time, if you took the +1.5, +2, +2.5, the numbers would make absolutely no difference whatsoever.... MAKING ML plays at that range the value play.

Further, you're leaving cash on the table.

Of those 265 games that closed at +1.5, +2, +2.5, the underdog won straight-up 150 times (56.6%) of the time.

Within the ML being anywhere from +101, +105, +109 for the those spread numbers-- the value is clearly in betting the ML.

Okay, what's my point?

A lot of rec bettors feel comfy with getting a few points.

Don't do it.

Play the ML any time you're considering taking a few points this college football season.

On the other side of the coin?

If you're betting the favorite at -2.5, -2, or -1.5? Tread carefully.

Dogs are living large at these numbers. Over the last 5 years, you would have been crushed betting ML favorites at these numbers/prices.

Add ons:

There is no statistical difference between home/road in these numbers. Nothing that would indicate a patter over the last 5 years.

Find the number

[fudy213]

What about when you buy the points up to +3 or even 3.5? My guess would be that getting a field goal or more would bump the percentages up on a win/loss average. Will it make up for the extra 15cents? Im not sure there. Numbers data is great and I always look at it. It comes down to picking the best team in the end. Ive found in my experience that numbers data and trends, when relied on too much, can just confuse the heck out of me.

[A Quant]

What about when you buy the points up to +3 or even 3.5? My guess would be that getting a field goal or more would bump the percentages up on a win/loss average. Will it make up for the extra 15cents? Im not sure there. Numbers data is great and I always look at it. It comes down to picking the best team in the end. Ive found in my experience that numbers data and trends, when relied on too much, can just confuse the heck out of me.

Never, and I repeat, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, did I say NEVER? buy up to 3 or 3.5 in college football.

There is simply no value in it, the data is almost identical to what I mentioned in my original post.

Again, in a 5 year snap, you're looking at (<1%) of the games where buying up to 3, or 3.5 would have been worth the added juice.

Here are some more numbers for you.

In a 5 year snap (2832 games), and looking at Dogs getting 7 or less (1095 games), the Dog won S/U 39.11% of the time.

Don't buy, never buy, and NEVER bet anything less than +3 ATS.

[fudy213]

That is very enlightening AQ. Very enlightening indeed. THX for sharing. I usually bet money line or money line parlays. I try to keep them at 2 teams and no more than 3. I find when I try to think too much, my brain hurts.

[gojetsgomoxies]

there's a ton you could do on a sports database about small home and road favorites and i'd say must be conference games.

having a brain freeze but our most controversial poster (whose info i respect. not always the delivery) put me onto small conference road favorites. worked relly well. not sure if it still works.

to me, things like buying points is very unsophisticated i.e. another chance for the bookie to charge more juice.. but i could be wrong.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

solid food for thought, thanks

[A Quant]

I am bumping my own thread because there are some guys who don't get it.

DO NOT BET +1, +1.5, +2, +2.5 in college football.

If you like the dog at the number- BET THE MONEYLINE!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BigDofBA]

This has worked well for me in recent years.

+2 seems to win outright a lot.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Thanks for sharing. Kind of strange most bettors don’t grasp this simple concept.

[kingdom]

I am a numbers guy. I want data, data, data, and more data. I can't have enough data points.

How many of you guys know a buddy who tells ya, "I got TEAM A +2"? Or +2.5?

And you look at him like he's a little crazy?

Or how many of you actually bet those numbers?

I want you to think about this the next time you do.

For purposes of this, I am only discussing the 130 1-A teams playing other 1-A teams. I am giving you a 5 year snap. There can be variances over 1 year, but 5 years can give you a fairly decent snap.

Now, another important distinction. This thread focuses on the closing #, or the Saturday morning number as almost all rec bettors play late, few if any, develop power numbers and hunt for the opener. And, hopefully this can help a rec bettor or two.

Lastly, remember. It's about value. Value. Anything to give you the smallest of edges to earn coin.

From 2013 thru 2017 there were 2832 games in 1-A. Of those 2832 games, there were 265 games (9.3%) where the close was 2.5 or less. That's 9% of your available games that close at 2.5 points or less.

Of those 2832 games, 4 of them ended with the underdog covering with either +1.5, +2, or +2.5. That is .14% of the total games. In other words, 99.86% of the time, if you took the +1.5, +2, +2.5, the numbers would make absolutely no difference whatsoever.... MAKING ML plays at that range the value play.

Further, you're leaving cash on the table.

Of those 265 games that closed at +1.5, +2, +2.5, the underdog won straight-up 150 times (56.6%) of the time.

Within the ML being anywhere from +101, +105, +109 for the those spread numbers-- the value is clearly in betting the ML.

Okay, what's my point?

A lot of rec bettors feel comfy with getting a few points.

Don't do it.

Play the ML any time you're considering taking a few points this college football season.

On the other side of the coin?

If you're betting the favorite at -2.5, -2, or -1.5? Tread carefully.

Dogs are living large at these numbers. Over the last 5 years, you would have been crushed betting ML favorites at these numbers/prices.

Add ons:

There is no statistical difference between home/road in these numbers. Nothing that would indicate a patter over the last 5 years.

Find the number

Have you average the ML wins of the 150 wins vs. the 154 that win ats of the 265 to see what the monetary difference would be? Very curious about that as well.

[A Quant]

Bumping my own thread to help some of you guys.

Okay--- to date, through October 6th there have been 29 games that closed at +/-1 +/-1.5 +/-2 +/- 2.5.

29 games. How many times did those points come into play? ZERO. 0. ZERO POINT ZERO.




DO NOT TAKE THE POINTS!!!!!!! If you like a dog at any of those 4 numbers (1, 1.5, 2, 2.5)- PLAY THE MONEY LINE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Okay, I'm calm now. But you some of you keep doing it and keep leaving money on the table and its driving me insane.

[2daBank]

Never, and I repeat, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, did I say NEVER? buy up to 3 or 3.5 in college football.

There is simply no value in it, the data is almost identical to what I mentioned in my original post.

Again, in a 5 year snap, you're looking at (<1%) of the games where buying up to 3, or 3.5 would have been worth the added juice.

Here are some more numbers for you.

In a 5 year snap (2832 games), and looking at Dogs getting 7 or less (1095 games), the Dog won S/U 39.11% of the time.

Don't buy, never buy, and NEVER bet anything less than +3 ATS.

Excellent post. I would like to add, NEVER do it! Lol. Honestly can’t be stressed enough. I try to tell guys all the time if they truly feel paying extra juice buying points is a good idea don’t take my word for it (cause they won’t, lol) simply track it for the next year, add up all the extra juice you lose on losses then subtract the few games buying those points actually saved you from a loss or got you a win, I guarantee they will see buying the points is not worth it!!

Great opening post as well, I always take the ml on spreads less than 3 (betting dog of course), same thing applies as not buying points, which essentially you be doing by paying -110 for those numbers when you should be at + money on the ml.

I do same in NFL but I will say there been several times over the years when forgo the point or 2 in favor of ml my doggie loses by 1! Lol. That said those instances were more than offset by the increased payout playing the mls

[2daBank]

I am bumping my own thread because there are some guys who don't get it.

DO NOT BET +1, +1.5, +2, +2.5 in college football.

If you like the dog at the number- BET THE MONEYLINE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Some never will bro, no matter how much sense you making in trying to help them out. In the end too many don’t understand/respect the long term ramifications and rather feel that extra false security for one game. Respect your efforts tho and hopefully it will get thru to some. That what this site supposed to be about!!

[A Quant]

Some never will bro, no matter how much sense you making in trying to help them out. In the end too many don’t understand/respect the long term ramifications and rather feel that extra false security for one game. Respect your efforts tho and hopefully it will get thru to some. That what this site supposed to be about!!

Good points-- I don't get it. Any edge we can get as players-- you have to take advantage of. A few pick threads here-- same guys, keep doing it-- Keep taking Team A at +2.5, or +2, and I try and explain how that money adds up over the course of a season.

[BigdaddyQH]

Bumping my own thread to help some of you guys.

Okay--- to date, through October 6th there have been 29 games that closed at +/-1 +/-1.5 +/-2 +/- 2.5.

29 games. How many times did those points come into play? ZERO. 0. ZERO POINT ZERO.




DO NOT TAKE THE POINTS!!!!!!! If you like a dog at any of those 4 numbers (1, 1.5, 2, 2.5)- PLAY THE MONEY LINE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Okay, I'm calm now. But you some of you keep doing it and keep leaving money on the table and its driving me insane.

This is very good advice, even though the number of games that you wager on in this catagory will be very small. While you still may end up losing overall, you will lose a lot less by taking the ML than the points. He brings up another good points. Most people wait until just before game time to wager. That is why most people are total Squares and losers. The smart players get on board as soon as they can so they can adjust to line movements if the opportunity presents itself.

[jtoler]

Good points-- I don't get it. Any edge we can get as players-- you have to take advantage of. A few pick threads here-- same guys, keep doing it-- Keep taking Team A at +2.5, or +2, and I try and explain how that money adds up over the course of a season.

its because most who bet do bet long term but arnt thinking long term rather take it more from game to game, bet to bet. part of the reason is because most arnt using money management and betting according to bankroll.

[Getch13]

NFL Underdog win rate from last five years, this year not included. Curiosity of OddsSharks

Odds Range	Win %	Profit
+100 to +150	43%	-$1,317
+151 to +200	34.6%	-$1,347
+201 to +250	30%	-$497
+251 to +300	18%	-$3,736
+301 and more	19.5%	-$1,176

[Getch13]

Curiosity of Wizard of odds

Probability of Winning by Point Spread in the NFL For Underdogs

Spread	Games	Wins	Actual Probability	Estimated Probability	Fair Line
1	139	69	49.6%	46.4%	115
1.5	88	43	48.9%	44.6%	124
2	126	51	40.5%	42.9%	133
2.5	224	98	43.8%	41.1%	143
3	517	235	45.5%	39.4%	154
3.5	279	107	38.4%	37.7%	165
4	157	59	37.6%	36.1%	177
4.5	128	47	36.7%	34.4%	191
5	89	23	25.8%	32.8%	205
5.5	118	38	32.2%	31.3%	220
6	133	45	33.8%	29.7%	236
6.5	147	42	28.6%	28.3%	254
7	220	51	23.2%	26.8%	273
7.5	146	36	24.7%	25.5%	293

[alamo]

Love this post. Going to take duke +2.5 today as I can think they can cover here

[A Quant]

Hate bumping old threads, but this works.

I will post the 2018 numbers before next week's games, but the data remains the same.

DO NOT BET +1, +1.5, +2 in college football--- you are leaving money on the table.

[BigdaddyQH]

You and I certainly have our differences, but I am NOT afraid to praise someone when they are correct. This post is spot on. There are some things in College Football you never do. One, as Quaint points out, is taking points that range from +1/2 to 2 1/2 instead of taking the Money Line. Another is Buying points. I don't care what the number is, buying points is ALWAYS a suckers play.