World Cup plays

ChuckyTheGoat · 2026-06-26T14:19:15+00:00

Originally posted by Chiefs83

Plays were made 2 days ago

Saudi Arabia +0.5 (-154)
Uruguay ML (+700)
Panama ML (+1700)
Columbia ML (+330)

3 team parlay
South Africa ML (+500)
Turkey ML (+285)
Norway ML (+400)
25/2887.50
cashout offer 545.64

trying to hedge to make the most profit any ideas welcome

Chief, a few basic comments:
1) Looks like you drilled 2/3 of your Big Dog parlay. Bravo!
2) This is the setup where Risk/Reward comes into play. Small risk where the EV ballooned. Reasonable to considering hedging to lock in some profit.
3) I normally HATE the cash-out offers. I hear this advertised more now. It's certainly not 100-cents on the dollar...and probably not even 90-cents on the dollar. The books have to make a KILLING on these cashout offers where they short-change the payout.

As for Norway on this ticket, they certainly have a CHANCE b/c those guys can score. Looks like their offer is too short, as it's < 20% of the potential payday.

Your call, man. If you take it, you 22x'd your money in a few days. Here's the real catch on these cashout offers:
*Most people can't distinguish between Retrospective and Prospective. They'll say that you need to lock in a gain.
...I used to see this frequently at Poker final-tables. Players were terrified of missing out, so they always wanted to make a deal.

Other option = playing FRANCE -0.5. Current line is -154.
...That is certainly reasonable. Might be better than the payout they're offering you.

Chiefs83 · 2026-06-26T14:21:23+00:00

I can’t do that…I could end up losing every wager if I did it your way

Chiefs83 · 2026-06-26T14:24:05+00:00

Added 3 teamer with 20% boost
Draw Senegal/Iraq (+550)
Draw Norway/France (+340)
Saudi Arabia ML (+170)
50/4623

ChuckyTheGoat · 2026-06-26T14:26:08+00:00

Sorry for the long-winded response. Looking at it again, FRA -0.5 would not guarantee a payout (as the Draw would still be in play).

Could play: FRA -0.5 and the DRAW (+368). That would guarantee you some return.
...You normally don't see the Fav (France) listed at +0.5.
...If you do find that line, France +0.5 would be priced around -450. So, that would be an option.

ChuckyTheGoat · 2026-06-26T14:40:25+00:00

Originally posted by Chiefs83

I can’t do that…I could end up losing every wager if I did it your way

Yeah, see post #5. You'd need both FRA -0.5 and DRAW tickets.

Chiefs83 · 2026-06-26T14:44:06+00:00

Added
3 teamer SGP 30% boost
1st half Uruguay ML
Uruguay ML
Ferran Torres 1 shot on target
+1400 boosted to +1820
25/480

Added
3 teamer SGP 50% boost
1st half Uruguay +0.5
Highest scoring half Draw
Draw for the game
+600 boosted to +900
25/250

franz555 · 2026-06-26T14:45:08+00:00

Good Luck today Chief

Its nice to have some options that pay so well

Im cheering for ya

ChuckyTheGoat · 2026-06-26T14:52:15+00:00

I re-ran the #s. Their cashout offer isn't too bad. Current odds = 4.9/4.7/1.65. Implies Norway -0.5 = .200.

$2913 gross * .200 = $581. So, their offer of $545 is about 94-cents on the dollar. Not bad.

If you do hedge back w/ FRANCE, you'd be looking for something like FRA +0.5 1.22.
...If you put $300 on FRA +0.5 1.22, you'd clear +$41 profit on FRA +0.5. Still staring at $2588 profit if NORW wins.
...If you like that, could leverage FRA higher to guarantee a more balanced profit.

pavyracer · 2026-06-26T15:12:03+00:00

For the 3 team parlay with France win or draw at -450 you will need this to hedge:

Results
Bet #2 $1,186.36
Total Bet $1,211.36
$ Profit $238.64
% Profit 19.6998%

I think taking the payout is better.

pavyracer · 2026-06-26T15:17:04+00:00

Maybe take the payout at $520.64 profit and have the cash in hand to bet live if something good comes up.