World Cup plays

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  • Chiefs83
    SBR MVP
    • 08-01-16
    • 3123

    #1
    World Cup plays
    Plays were made 2 days ago

    Saudi Arabia +0.5 (-154)
    Uruguay ML (+700)
    Panama ML (+1700)
    Columbia ML (+330)

    3 team parlay
    South Africa ML (+500)
    Turkey ML (+285)
    Norway ML (+400)
    25/2887.50
    cashout offer 545.64

    trying to hedge to make the most profit any ideas welcome

    Futures
    The other 3 teams would be first time winners to hedge my other bet
    No First Time Winner (-270)
    Belgium (+5200)
    Netherlands (+2200)
    Portugal win World Cup (+1500)
  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 39467

    #2
    Originally posted by Chiefs83
    Plays were made 2 days ago

    Saudi Arabia +0.5 (-154)
    Uruguay ML (+700)
    Panama ML (+1700)
    Columbia ML (+330)

    3 team parlay
    South Africa ML (+500)
    Turkey ML (+285)
    Norway ML (+400)
    25/2887.50
    cashout offer 545.64

    trying to hedge to make the most profit any ideas welcome
    Chief, a few basic comments:
    1) Looks like you drilled 2/3 of your Big Dog parlay. Bravo!
    2) This is the setup where Risk/Reward comes into play. Small risk where the EV ballooned. Reasonable to considering hedging to lock in some profit.
    3) I normally HATE the cash-out offers. I hear this advertised more now. It's certainly not 100-cents on the dollar...and probably not even 90-cents on the dollar. The books have to make a KILLING on these cashout offers where they short-change the payout.

    As for Norway on this ticket, they certainly have a CHANCE b/c those guys can score. Looks like their offer is too short, as it's < 20% of the potential payday.

    Your call, man. If you take it, you 22x'd your money in a few days. Here's the real catch on these cashout offers:
    *Most people can't distinguish between Retrospective and Prospective. They'll say that you need to lock in a gain.
    ...I used to see this frequently at Poker final-tables. Players were terrified of missing out, so they always wanted to make a deal.

    Other option = playing FRANCE -0.5. Current line is -154.
    ...That is certainly reasonable. Might be better than the payout they're offering you.
    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
    Comment
    • Chiefs83
      SBR MVP
      • 08-01-16
      • 3123

      #3
      I can’t do that…I could end up losing every wager if I did it your way
      Comment
      • Chiefs83
        SBR MVP
        • 08-01-16
        • 3123

        #4
        Added 3 teamer with 20% boost
        Draw Senegal/Iraq (+550)
        Draw Norway/France (+340)
        Saudi Arabia ML (+170)
        50/4623
        Comment
        • ChuckyTheGoat
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 04-04-11
          • 39467

          #5
          Sorry for the long-winded response. Looking at it again, FRA -0.5 would not guarantee a payout (as the Draw would still be in play).

          Could play: FRA -0.5 and the DRAW (+368). That would guarantee you some return.
          ...You normally don't see the Fav (France) listed at +0.5.
          ...If you do find that line, France +0.5 would be priced around -450. So, that would be an option.
          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
          Comment
          • ChuckyTheGoat
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 04-04-11
            • 39467

            #6
            Originally posted by Chiefs83
            I can’t do that…I could end up losing every wager if I did it your way
            Yeah, see post #5. You'd need both FRA -0.5 and DRAW tickets.
            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
            Comment
            • Chiefs83
              SBR MVP
              • 08-01-16
              • 3123

              #7
              Added
              3 teamer SGP 30% boost
              1st half Uruguay ML
              Uruguay ML
              Ferran Torres 1 shot on target
              +1400 boosted to +1820
              25/480

              Added
              3 teamer SGP 50% boost
              1st half Uruguay +0.5
              Highest scoring half Draw
              Draw for the game
              +600 boosted to +900
              25/250
              Comment
              • franz555
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-13-14
                • 12672

                #8
                Good Luck today Chief

                Its nice to have some options that pay so well

                Im cheering for ya
                Comment
                • ChuckyTheGoat
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 04-04-11
                  • 39467

                  #9
                  I re-ran the #s. Their cashout offer isn't too bad. Current odds = 4.9/4.7/1.65. Implies Norway -0.5 = .200.

                  $2913 gross * .200 = $581. So, their offer of $545 is about 94-cents on the dollar. Not bad.

                  If you do hedge back w/ FRANCE, you'd be looking for something like FRA +0.5 1.22.
                  ...If you put $300 on FRA +0.5 1.22, you'd clear +$41 profit on FRA +0.5. Still staring at $2588 profit if NORW wins.
                  ...If you like that, could leverage FRA higher to guarantee a more balanced profit.
                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                  Comment
                  • pavyracer
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 04-12-07
                    • 83020

                    #10
                    For the 3 team parlay with France win or draw at -450 you will need this to hedge:

                    Results
                    Bet #2 $1,186.36
                    Total Bet $1,211.36
                    $ Profit $238.64
                    % Profit 19.6998%

                    I think taking the payout is better.

                    Comment
                    • pavyracer
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 04-12-07
                      • 83020

                      #11
                      Maybe take the payout at $520.64 profit and have the cash in hand to bet live if something good comes up.
                      Comment
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