NCAAF Conference Championship Free Picks

[SBR Andy]

ACC Championship: Duke vs Virginia

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)
• TV: ABC

Duke vs Virginia prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Duke +2.5 (+100 FanDuel)

"Duke needed three things to happen in Week 14 to punch its ticket to the ACC Championship. And now that it did, the Blue Devils are likely to be an overlooked bunch despite playing this game less than 150 miles from campus.

Virginia beat Duke in Durham 34-17 just three weeks ago, while limiting the Blue Devils to just 255 total yards and 11 first downs. The Blue Devils were a 4.5-point betting favorite in that game, suggesting that oddsmakers viewed Duke as the better team at the time if that game were to have been played on a neutral field.

The Cavaliers certainly did not need an offensive breakout to beat Virginia Tech in the regular season finale after holding the Hokies to six first downs and 197 total yards. But it is concerning that Virginia could only complete 22 of 36 passes for 5.1 yards per pass against a Virginia Tech defense that entered ranked 119th or worse in yards per pass and completion percentage allowed.

Duke backers are wise to hold out for a better number (+3 or better), as the line is likely to move in the direction of the regular season champion."

Duke vs. Virginia opening odds

• Moneyline: Duke +115 | Virginia -135
• Spread: Duke +2.5 (-110) | Virginia -2.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)

Duke vs. Virginia trends & betting notes

• Duke has not covered the spread in three games against ranked opponents this year
• Virginia has won nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings against Duke with an average point differential of +14.2
• Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah has a 20-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the last nine games
• Duke and Virginia are each looking for their first ACC Championship Game victories in their second appearances since 2005

[SBR Andy]

Big Ten Championship: Indiana vs Ohio State

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
• TV: FOX

Indiana vs Ohio State prediction from SBR's Rob Paul:

Under 48.5 (-110 bet365)

"Don't let the narrative that this game could decide the Heisman Trophy distract you from the fact that these are the two best defenses in the country. Whichever QB survives four quarters in Indianapolis and comes out a winner will potentially win the Heisman, but these two defenses are so dominant that both Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin could turn in their worst performances of the season.

Ohio State has a historically dominant defense under Matt Patricia, with first-round talents like Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, and Kayden McDonald helping the Buckeyes hold opponents to just. 7.8 PPG, best in the country. This defense is ranked No. 1 by SP+ and allows the fewest yards per game in college football (203.0).

Meanwhile, Indiana's defense isn't far behind. The Hoosiers are No. 2 in defensive SP+, No. 2 in points allowed per game (10.9), and No. 4 in yards allowed per game (251.8). Indiana has given up more than 20 points just once this season, and it was to an Oregon team that's ranked No. 4 overall by SP+.

So despite Mendoza and Sayin being arguably the top two QBs in the country, these are by far the best defenses they've faced. And in games Indiana has played against teams ranked top 40 in defensive SP+, the Under is 3-0-1."

Indiana vs. Ohio State opening odds

• Moneyline: Indiana +185 | Ohio State -225
• Spread: Indiana +6 (-115) | Ohio State -6 (-105)
• Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)

Indiana vs. Ohio State trends & betting notes

• Ohio State has the best ATS record in the country at 10-1-1
• Indiana is 7-5 ATS, but has failed to cover in two of its last three games
• The Hoosiers are 7-4-1 betting the Over, but 1-3-1 when they fail to cover the spread
• The Buckeyes are 8-4 betting the Under, including 3-0 betting the Under against ranked opponents

[SBR Andy]

SEC Championship: Georgia vs Alabama

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
• Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
• TV: ABC

Georgia vs Alabama prediction from SBR's Rob Paul:

Georgia -2.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"Even in seasons where it looks like another program could emerge from the conference where it just means more, it's once again going to be Alabama or Georgia at the top of the SEC heading into the CFP. These two programs have accounted for 10 of the last 11 conference championships, but this will be Kalen DeBoer's first time coaching for an SEC title.

While DeBoer has found serious success at times this season with the Tide, thanks to the emergence of QB Ty Simpson, Alabama has dwindled down the stretch. The Crimson Tide are just 2-2-1 ATS since Week 9, with their offense slipping to No. 22 in SP+ and No. 98 in EPA per rush.

Alabama's inability to consistently run the ball has allowed opponents to focus on stopping Simpson and this passing attack, with the Crimson Tide's last three SEC opponents holding them to just 22.6 PPG. Smart will have his defense foaming at the mouth, especially with it hitting its stride in the second half of the season. The Bulldogs are No. 8 in defensive SP+ and haven't given up more than 21 points in five straight games.

With Gunner Stockton and Nate Frazier leading Georgia's rushing attack, it should do enough against a Bama defense ranked No. 44 in EPA per rush to pull away."

Georgia vs. Alabama opening odds

• Moneyline: Georgia -125 | Alabama +105
• Spread: Georgia -1.5 (-110) | Alabama +1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)

Georgia vs. Alabama trends & betting notes

• After starting the season 0-3-1 ATS, Georgia is 5-3 ATS since its loss to Alabama
• Alabama started the season 5-1-1 ATS but is 2-2-1 since
• Georgia is 7-4-1 betting the Under this season, including hitting the Under in four of its last five
• Alabama is one of the best Under teams in the country, hitting it in eight of its last nine

[SBR Andy]

Big 12 Championship: BYU vs Texas Tech

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• TV: ABC

BYU vs Texas Tech prediction from SBR's Rob Paul:

Under 50.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"Texas Tech is a near two-touchdown favorite after beating BYU 29-7 at home in Lubbock, Texas, a month ago. And while I expect the Red Raiders to once again cruise to a victory, the Under is a play I'm more comfortable with, given how both of these defenses stack up in the Big 12 Championship.

Led by Heisman contender Jacob Rodriguez at linebacker and one of the best defensive lines in the country, Texas Tech is No. 4 in defensive SP+ and has allowed more than 17 points just twice this season. The Red Raiders are poised to pressure BYU freshman QB Bear Bachmeier once again and frazzle the 19-year-old in a championship atmosphere.

BYU's defense should do its part, too, with its back seven playing elite football right now - the Cougars are allowing the second-fewest PPG (17.8) in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech (11.3). These are two of the best defenses in the country, and these teams combined for just 36 total points to hit the Under on a game total of 50.5 the first time around."

BYU vs. Texas Tech opening odds

• Moneyline: BYU +325 | Texas Tech -425
• Spread: BYU +11.5 (-110) | Texas Tech -11.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 50 (-110) | Under 50 (-110)

BYU vs. Texas Tech trends & betting notes

• Texas Tech is 6-3 betting the Under against Power Four programs
• The Red Raiders are 10-2 ATS, including 6-0 when favored by double digits against Power Four teams
• BYU is 9-3 ATS overall, and 5-3 betting the Under when an underdog or favored by single digits
• Texas Tech has allowed just 9.8 PPG in games played in Texas this season

[SBR Andy]

MAC Championship: Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
• TV: ESPN

Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan prediction from SBR's Rob Paul:

Western Michigan -2.5 (-110 bet365)

"While this is the third straight MAC Championship Chuck Martin has taken Miami (OH) to, and just the second appearance by Western Michigan in over 20 years, the Broncos enter as the best team in the conference. Although WMU's only loss in MAC play came on the road at the hands of the RedHawks, Martin's team has had a massive shake-up at the QB position since then.

Dequan Finn, who won MAC MVP in 2023 at Toledo and had been among the best QBs in the conference this year at Miami (OH), abruptly left the program following a loss to Ohio. And while freshman Thomas Gotkowski has been productive in his two starts, they came against Buffalo and Ball State - both rank outside the top 70 in defensive SP+.

Meanwhile, the Broncos have the best defense in the MAC (No. 46 by SP+) and an offense that leans heavily on the run game and QB Broc Lowry's legs. The Broncos are No. 55 in EPA per rush on offense, while the RedHawks are just No. 97 in EPA per rush on defense.

Western Michigan is 8-3-1 ATS this season, second-best in the MAC."

Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan opening odds

• Moneyline: Miami (OH) +120 | Western Michigan -140
• Spread: Miami (OH) +3 (-110) | Western Michigan -3 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 44 (-110) | Under 44 (-110)

Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan trends & betting notes

• Western Michigan is 5-2-1 ATS in MAC play this season
• Miami (OH) is 1-4 ATS as an underdog this season
• The RedHawks are the second-best Over team in the MAC at 7-5
• The Broncos are 4-1 betting the Over since Week 9

[SBR Andy]

Mountain West Championship: UNLV vs Boise State

• Date: Friday, Dec. 5
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
• TV: FOX

UNLV vs Boise State prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

UNLV +3.5 (-122 FanDuel)

"There is no denying Boise State’s dominance of this rivalry, beating UNLV 10 straight times since 1977, including every meeting as members of the Mountain West. But UNLV has a chance to exact sweet revenge on the Broncos, who are leaving the conference next year, after losing the last two championship games by an average of 19 points.

Computers were used to set up this championship matchup, as UNLV and Boise State were two of four teams tied with 6-2 league records. But the Runnin’ Rebels were selected in large part because of outstanding recent SP+ numbers, ranking 41st to Boise State’s 55th.

The Broncos were lucky to even be in consideration for this game, as their 25-24 come-from-behind win over Utah State last week had the fifth-lowest postgame win expectancy for any team that was victorious (28%).

UNLV has won four straight games, and I am backing it at +3.5 because of its ability to get off the field. The Runnin’ Rebels' defense entered last week limiting opponents to fewer than 35% third-down conversions, and improved upon that by holding Nevada to just 3-of-13 on third down."

UNLV vs. Boise State opening odds

• Moneyline: UNLV +105 | Boise State -130
• Spread: UNLV +1.5 (-105) | Boise State -1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)

UNLV vs. Boise State trends & betting notes

• Boise State has won 10 straight head-to-head matchups against UNLV
• The Broncos have beaten UNLV in the last two Mountain West Championships by scores of 21-7 and 44-20
• Something has to give, as UNLV has covered five of six games as the road team this year, while Boise State is 5-1 ATS at home
• The Over has cashed in five of the Broncos’ six games at Albertsons Stadium

[SBR Andy]

American Conference Championship: North Texas vs Tulane

• Date: Friday, Dec. 5
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Yulman Stadium (New Orleans)
• TV: ABC

North Texas vs Tulane prediction from SBR's Phil Wood:

Over 67.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"This is an incredibly high number, but North Texas’ offense has been so good that Over 67.5 is still my best North Texas vs. Tulane prediction. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker leads the nation with 3,835 yards, while his offense leads the country in points per game (46.8) and yards per game (511.8).

North Texas has scored at least 50 points in five of its last six games. Tulane has a solid defense, allowing just 22.8 points per contest. But the Green Wave's biggest defensive weakness is their pass defense, which is allowing 251.9 yards per game.

North Texas has scored at least 31 points in every game this season. Tulane has scored at least 35 in three of its last four."

North Texas vs. Tulane opening odds

• Moneyline: North Texas -150 | Tulane +125
• Spread: North Texas -3 (-110) | Tulane +3 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 66.5 (-110) | Under 66.5 (-110)

North Texas vs. Tulane trends & betting notes

• North Texas is 10-2 against the spread this season
• The total has been set at 56 or higher in every North Texas game, with the Over hitting in nine of 12 games
• The Under has hit in four of Tulane’s 12 games
• Tulane is 2-5 against the spread in its last seven games

[SBR Andy]

Sun Belt Championship: Troy vs James Madison

• Date: Friday, Dec. 5
• Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Bridgeforth Stadium (Harrisonburg, Va.)
• TV: ESPN

Troy vs James Madison prediction from SBR's Phil Wood:

Troy +22.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"James Madison won seven of its eight conference games by at least 10 points. Four of those wins came by more than 30. However, Troy’s defensive prowess is why my best Troy vs. James Madison prediction is Troy to cover as huge underdogs.

Troy allowed just 23.9 points per game this season. The Trojans held Clemson, Memphis, and eight of their other 10 opponents to fewer than 30 points this season. Offensively, they're averaging 25.2 points per game while scoring at least 28 in six of their last eight.

James Madison has won four of its last five Sun Belt games by at least 30. However, in the seven games where the Dukes scored 35 or fewer, they won by more than 20 just once."

Troy vs. James Madison opening odds

• Moneyline: Troy +900 | James Madison -1600
• Spread: Troy +20.5 (-110) | James Madison -20.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)

Troy vs. James Madison trends & betting notes

• The Over has hit in five of James Madison’s last six games
• James Madison is 3-2 against the spread when favored by at least 19
• Four consecutive Troy games have gone Under
• Troy is 5-2 against the spread as an underdog this season

[SBR Andy]

Conference USA Championship: Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State

• Date: Friday, Dec. 5
• Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: AmFirst Stadium (Jacksonville, Ala.)
• TV: CBSSN

Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State prediction from SBR's Phil Wood:

Jacksonville State -1.5 (-103 Caesars)

"When these two teams met earlier this season, Jacksonville State defeated Kennesaw State 35-26. Jacksonville State remains a terrible matchup for Kennesaw State, which is why my best Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State prediction is the Gamecocks to cover as 1.5-point favorites.

Jacksonville State ranks third nationally with 262.2 rushing yards per game. Kennesaw State is allowing 172.6 rushing yards per contest, and in the first meeting, Jacksonville State had 252 rushing yards, with two rushers topping 120 yards.

Kennesaw State ranks fifth in Conference USA with 165.8 rushing yards per game. However, Jacksonville State’s defense is allowing just 155.0 per contest, holding all Owls’ rushers below 65 yards the first time they met."

Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State opening odds

• Moneyline: Kennesaw State +100 | Jacksonville State -120
• Spread: Kennesaw State +1.5 (-110) | Jacksonville State -1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)

Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State trends & betting notes

• The Over has hit in five of Kennesaw State’s last six games
• The Over has hit in seven of Jacksonville State’s last nine games
• Jacksonville State has not covered as a favorite this season
• Kennesaw State is 3-1 as an underdog this year

[SBR Andy]

We've got picks and predictions for all 9 conference championship games below:

Friday, December 5th

Conference USA: Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State

Sun Belt: Troy vs James Madison

American: North Texas vs Tulane

Mountain West: UNLV vs Boise State


Saturday, December 6th

MAC: Miami (Ohio) vs Western Michigan

Big 12: BYU vs Texas Tech

SEC: Georgia vs Alabama

Big Ten: Indiana vs Ohio State

ACC: Duke vs Virginia

[SBR Andy]

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