Dapper Dan Picks 2025-26 Season Long Thread

SBR Andy · 08-25-25, 01:10 PM

Appreciate the write-up. Nice call!

Smutbucket · 08-28-25, 10:41 AM

Thanks ANDY!

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 0: 1-0 (+1 unit)

More to come tomorrow…..

Week 1 Picks:
Rutgers -15 (-110)
Neb/Cinn Under 52 (-105)

Rutgers -15 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Oh man we have a Rutgers team that is mostly back in tact from last season, with Schiano fired up after his defense struggled last year bringing back his boy Robb Smith at co-DC who was there as DC in 2020-21 and another co-DC Zach Sparber who’s a disciple of Mike Elko’s defenses at Duke from ‘21-’23 (and Robb joined them in 2022) so you know they will be prepared to bring Schiano’s defense back to one of the best in the country. Their offense was the big surprise - especially at the end of the season where they averaged 36 ppg in their last 4 games and 29 ppg over the season. They have their OC back in his 3rd year with Athan Kaliakmanis at the helm and 9 returning starters and ranked 18th in % of yards returning. On the other side you have Ohio with their 4 year HC Tim Albin departing and basically no new coaching additions and keeping the rest of the staff in house promoting them up to new roles. They have two areas that may struggle as their defense only returns 3 starters - and ranks 77th in % of tackles returning - as well as their offensive line who ranks 98th in total career starts. Despite going 10-3 the last 3 seasons, it was against a notably weaker SOS in the MAC compared to the BIG 10 as last year Ohio played the 131st weakest schedule and Rutgers 59th according to Sagarins SOS rankings. Rutgers pulls away in the 2nd half and wins this one easily by 2+ TDs.

Neb/Cinn Under 52 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Both teams' defenses were their strengths last year with Nebraska being in the Top 25 of most DFEI categories. Cincinnati’s unit was not as strong - but return more starters and are in the 2nd year now of implementing a new 3-3-5 defense under Tyson Veidt who was a long time LB coach and Broyles nominee over at Iowa State. Both offenses struggled with Havoc allowed in the back-field with Nebraska ranking 132nd and Cincinnati ranking 56th. That was also the strength of each defense - with Nebraska ranking 26th in Havoc and Cincinnati ranking 56th. They are both experienced teams so let’s hope we don’t see any horrible breakdowns in coverage that lead to big plays. Last year in long scrimmage plays on offense, Nebraska struggled ranking 123rd in plays over 30+ yards and 81st in plays over 20+ yards. Cincinnati’s offense ranked 57th in plays over 30+ yards and 105th in plays over 20+ yards.

Smutbucket · 08-29-25, 12:04 PM

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 2-1 (+0.9 units)

Week 1 Adds:
Baylor ML (+115) 2x
Gtech -3.5 (-113)

Baylor ML (+115) Risking 2 units to win 2.3 units
Love this play and this Baylor team this year with 10 starters back on offense - including Sawyer Robertson who looked like an absolute stud at the end of the season - averaging 8.3 ypp, completing 62% for 3000 yards and a 28:8 TD:INT ratio. With the same OC in his 2nd year and ranking 5th in % of yards returning - there’s not much reason to believe they won’t have the same kind of production and were in the Top 30 of most PFF and O-FEI categories. Auburn on the other side not only lost the majority of their starters - ranking 105th in % of yards returning - but they brought in the crappy Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold who couldn’t average more then 5.5 ypp last year with all that talent at OU. Baylor also has 8 starters on defense returning ranking 40th in % of total tackles returning where Auburn also ranks significantly less in experience ranking 71st in % of total tackles returning. The only place Auburn is more experienced - is in the offensive line - where they are ranked 7th in offensive line starts - but that’s not necessarily a good thing when your team ranked 108th in havoc allowed the year before. Baylor will be fired up at home - Dave Aranda is a hell of a DC turned HC and think he will have his experienced team ready to win the opener against and SEC opponent. Favorite play of the weekend.

Gtech -3.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Bought the extra half point just to keep it under 4 but I think Georgia Tech should win easily. Haynes King AND Jamal Haynes are back - accounting for over 1500+ yards on ground, even being banged up and missing some games from injury. They have 7 starters returning on both sides of the ball and an OC in his 2nd year with the QB/RB duo that relies heavily on the counter and lots of pre-snap motion - they should have this Colorado defense on their heels that ranks 86th in % of total tackles returning from last season. Even more concerning for Colorado is their offense that returns 3 starters and #119th ranking in % of total yards. They bring in transfer QB from Liberty Kaidon Saltor who regressed last season - only completing 56% of his passes for 7.2 ypp, 1900 yards and a 15:6 TD:INT ration - after a great 2023 year. With an entire new offense that heavily relied on throwing the ball last season, I don’t expect them to keep pace with Georgia Tech in this one.

Smutbucket · 08-30-25, 06:29 AM

Dapper Dan Picks

Season YTD: 3-2 (-0.1 units)

Going to keep these short and sweet as I have a Jurassic dinosar quest with my daughter this morning before the games start and pissed Baylor got HOSED by the refs tonight - woulda got the ball back with 8 minutes left down 1 TD but a phantom “defensive holding” on a run play extended their drive on 3rd down to solidify their win.

Week 1 Adds:

Texas +2 (-101)

Miss State -13 (-111)

Northwestern +4.5 (+102)

UK/Toledo Over 47.5 (-110)

Clemson ML (-180)

Utah -5.5 (+104)

Texas +2 (-101) Risking 1.101 units to win 1 units

I mean we have Archie Manning and a much more experienced team going against a freshman with 12 career passes? Texas also had the #1 recruiting class last year according to Marc Lawrence’s ratings. Texas had an arguably much tougher schedule too last year being in the SEC now. Give me Texas in this one hell of an opening noon kickoff.

Miss State -13 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units

I mean Mississippi State’s defense was so incredibly horrible last year, which is giving us a nice low line. They brought in two new DC’s to turn that around and Lebby is in his 2nd year as HC and he calls the plays - he has a nice track record having coached with Huepel, Kiffin, and Venables at Oklahoma over the last 7 years prior to taking over this job. They rank 9th overall in Phil Steele’s experience returning and 28th in recruiting. That is the complete opposite of Souther Miss’s offseason who ranks 116th in experience and 106th in recruiting. The conference mismatch should have us winning by atleast two TDs.

Northwestern +4.5 (+102) Risking 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Another experience mismatch as NW ranks 11th in exp charts and and Tulane ranks 79th. I also really like their new QB - Preston Stone from SMU - he has a ton of experience and threw for 3200 yards, averaging 9.3 per pass, 60% and 28:6 TD:INT ratio before getting hurt at the end of the season and never really got a chance last season with Jennings taking over the starting role.Tulane is in he 2nd year of the Troy coaching staff that took over - last year they had a lot of returning starters but regressed from Willie Fritz’s 24-5 over the two seasons prior to 9-5 last season. They are also not used to the level of competition that NW faces in the BIG 10 - can’t believe we’re getting 4.5 points

UK/Toledo Over 47.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

Even though both defenses were the strengths of these teams last year, I like the low number and thing both offenses put up some points. Kentucky brings in transfer Zach Calzada who has a ton of experience and QB play was a huge problem of UK’s offense last year. Jason Candle is getting back 8 starters on offense including Tucker Gleason who can do just enough to move the chains. I was leaning Toledo TT over but just decided to go over in the low game total

Clemson ML (-180) Risking 1.8 units to win 1 units

I hated Klubnik at first but the more I watched him the more I was impressed and he returns his top 3 WR’s from last season and is one of the highest rating receiving corps in college football - Klubnick himself ranked 7th in PFF last year out of all QB’s who took at least 50% of the snaps. I’m a big fan of their new DC - Tom Allen. LSU has a lot of new guys from the transfer portal - they rank 47th overall in exp returning and Clemson ranks 2nd.

Utah -5.5 (+104) Risking 1 units to win 1.04 units

Love Utah with nearly their entire offense returning - except the QB but bring in an experienced Devon Dampier who started last year at New Mexico with the same OC Tim Beck who came to Utah with him to implement their new offense - it should catch some teams off-gguiard. Whittingham always has a top notch defense and they should put a pounding on this UCLA team that’s definitely in the 2nd year of a “transition year” after Kelly leaving - they don’t have much of a coaching staff with any respectable track records and a whole lot of new faces - including Nico from Tennessee who was never that impressive and benefited from Huepels offensive system.

Smutbucket · 09-05-25, 03:38 PM

Dapper Dan Picks:

Week 1 Results: 4-6 (-4.01 units)

Season YTD: 5-6 (-3.01 units)

Bounce back time~! Lots of changes this off-season and wild cards so going to go light until things get rolling week 4-5ish. Limited time for write-ups this week and limited info - so far locked in these few - back tmrw morning with a few more

Week 2:

Maryland -16.5 (-105)

Iowa State ML (-152)

Baylor/SMU Over 64.5 (-113)

Kansas +7 (-125)

Kansas ML (+210)

Maryland -16.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Both teams had a lot of turnover this past season, with Maryland ranking 132nd in exp charts and NIU ranking 129th - and tons of new starters on both sides of the ball - the difference is Maryland in a power conference and recruiting - they rank 25th in recruiting this past year by Athlon sports and NIU ranked 80th. NIU struggled last week against FCS team Holy Cross - squeaking out a 19-17 win. Their starting QB Josh Holst - looked pretty awful - and got hurt so they may be starting their backup QB Jackson Proctor who’s even worse. They were only able to average 3.71 ypc against Holy Cross - Maryland should stack the box and their size and athleticism should outmatch the huskies. They played FAU week 1 and crushed them 39-7 and held the Owls to 2.41 ypc and new freshman QB Malik Washington looked good and through completions to 10 different receivers that should exploit NIU’s new secondary. Both coaching staffs come back the same so not much changes there but I think this NIU team that has typically overperformed expectations- may be in for a down year due to recruiting and talent loss.

Iowa State ML (-152) Risking 1.52 units to win 1 units

Last year I had Iowa ML where Iowa State squeaked out a winning FG in the closing seconds of the game. This year I’m flip flopping to the Cyclones as they looked great in there first two games and last year they were literally run over by Kaleb Johnson who ran for 187 yards on 25 carries -thankfully he’s off to the NFL and Iowa needs to find a new identity on offense ranking 70th in % of yards returning - their defense is also very new - ranking 79th in % of tackles returning. They have a new senior QB, Mark Gronowski, who had not thrown a pass in his career before last week and he only completed 8 for 15 for 44 yards against Albany. Iowa State should smash.

Baylor/SMU Over 64.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units

Talked a lot about Baylor last week even though they didn’t come through because their offense was very capable. SMU also returns their starting QB Ketih Jennings and Rhett Lashlee calling plays with 6 returning starters on offense - they should easily put up 30+ against Baylor who got gashed on the ground vs Auburn allowing 6.0 ypc. SMU's defense is very green with only two returning starters, just like Baylor's so this game should go into the 80s. Track Meet.

Kansas +7 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units

Kansas ML (+210) Risking .5 units to win 1.05 units

Bought the half point here just in case and definitely think Kansas has the potential to win outright. They promoted up in house - Jim Zebrowski as the new OC - he has been with Kansas since 2021 and took over playcalling for the bowl game when Kotelniki left in 2023 where they put up 49 points against UNLV- with the very experienced Jalon Daniels leading it, they should be very comfortable together. Missouri - although put up 61 points in Week 1 - was against a laughable FCS opponent and had a close QB competition and the expected leader Sam Horn, got injured on his first snap of the game - leaving Beau Pribula to take over who’s a senior but never saw any significant playing time as he’s always been a backup - the last two years at Penn State. Kansas’s front - although against weak competition - has held its first two opponents to 90 yards on the ground, allowing only 1.58 ypc and leading the country with 19 TFLs.

Week 1 Picks:

Rutgers -15 (-110) L

Neb/Cinn Under 52 (-105) W

Baylor ML (+115) 2x L

Gtech -3.5 (-113) W

Texas +2 (-101) L

Miss State -13 (-111) W

Northwestern +4.5 (+102) L

UK/Toledo Over 47.5 (-110) L

Clemson ML (-180) L

Utah -5.5 (+104) W

Smutbucket · 09-06-25, 09:42 AM

Dapper Dan Picks

Season YTD: 5-7 (-4.06 units)

No Writeups for Todays - a lot harder to find time when you have a daughter lol. I’m also dabbling in options trading during the week so but once we start getting more stats to pull from I will focus on football. Yesterday really pissed me off with Maryland busting the way they did. Two times inside the 10 and got 0 points. Also contained em on the ground except for one 75 yards run. Going LIGHT this week - Lotta my lines I picked already moved like 4-5 pts from openers!

Week 2 Adds:

Vanderbilt +2.5 (-107)

Michigan/OU Under 44 (-102)

WVU/Ohio Over 58.5 (-102)

Tulane -13 (+100)

Arizona State -6.5 (+100)

Kansas State-17 (-103)

SBR Andy · 09-08-25, 10:49 AM

Was a tough week for sure. Looking forward to your Week 3 insights.

Smutbucket · 09-12-25, 01:28 PM

Thanks Andy - another struggle last week and a few heartbreakers- including KU. I’m going light this week and resisting the temptations lol. We need more time for stats to develop. More picks to come tomorrow

Week 2 Results: 4-7 (-2.85 units)

Season YTD: 8-13 (-5.86 units)

Week 3:

Arizona +1.5 (+102)

Oregon State/T. Tech Over 61 (-109)

Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110)

Week 3:

Arizona +1.5 (+102) Risking 1 units to win 1.02 units

Scary one to take tonight as last year after moving to the BIG 12 and these two teams faced off Arizona got blown out (31-7). This year though, Kansas State has looked awful with a disappointing loss to Army last week, Iowa State in week 0, and barely squeaked out a win against North Dakota in Week 1. They are banged up and have allowed teams to extend drives ranking 61st in 3rd down conv % and allowing opponents to score in 100% of red zone opportunities. Defenses have been throwing on them, even ARMY went 15-25 for 172 yards and they are currently ranked 91st in coverage in PFF. I have faith in Fifita and this offense to return to its 2023 form - they bring in new OC Seth Doege, as it was clear Dino Babers had no idea what he was doing. Seth had a successful 1st year as Marshal OC last year, before that he had various analyst and assistant jobs. Arizona is one of the most experienced teams returning - ranking 13th in Phill Steele’s experience charts. Granted so far they have had no competition but I think the home field - revenge matchup against the deflated Kansas State team has a good chance of upsetting tonight.

Oregon State/T. Tech Over 61 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

I can spot a Track Meet when I see one.

Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

I love when we have a coaching face-off between two veterans who have been around for decades and a history against each other from a few lifetimes ago. Back when Narduzzi was DC at Cincinnati, and Rich Rod at WVU in 2005 and 2006 - Rich Rod had the better team and strategy and dominated the Bearcats in two straight years. Then Narduzzi moved to Michigan State where he went 3-0 against Rich Rod’s Wolverines and held them to 15 ppg from 2008 to 2012. Granted this was a few lifetimes ago, but I think Narduzzi has the more established program and team to run away with this game. Starting Pitt QB Holstein is back after suffering some injuries towards the end of last year but he led them to 7 straight wins to kick off last year - showing the ability to run and throw effectively before getting banged up. For WVU, Rich Rod doesn’t have a QB to run his system, Nicco Marchiol, got shut down by Ohio going 15 for 26 for 178 yards and an INT - on the ground, getting just 9 yards on 11 attempts. Jalen Henderson came in but could not complete a pass. Narduzzi should feast and smash this WVU team that lost to a MAC team last week - Rich Rod will need some better tools to run his offense.

Week 2 Recap:

Maryland -16.5 (-105) L

Iowa State ML (-152) W

Baylor/SMU Over 64.5 (-113) W

Kansas +7 (-125) L

Kansas ML (+210) .5x L

Vanderbilt +2.5 (-107) W

Michigan/OU Under 44 (-102) W

WVU/Ohio Over 58.5 (-102) L

Tulane -13 (+100) L

Arizona State -6.5 (+100) L

Kansas State-17 (-103) L

Smutbucket · 09-13-25, 07:55 AM

Dapper Dan Picks:

Season YTD: 10-13 (-4.86 units)

Had correction was 9 wins before yesterday.

Units were correct ^*

Week 3 Adds:

Georgia Tech +3 (-106)

Troy/Memphis Over 50.5 (-115)

Wiscy/Bama under 45.5 (-113)

Purdue +21 (-105)

Vanderbilt/South Carolina Over 48 (-112)

Texas AM +7 (-115)

Georgia Tech +3 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units

No surprise. I love Haynes King and this may be the first time in 10 years that Gtech beats Clemson - they didn’t play each other last year but only covered once and lost every game in the years prior yet this line is 3?! This Clemson team is not the same as it was when Brent Venables ran the defense - they brought in Tom Allen to bring in a new scheme this season but they should struggle with this difficult offense to contain. They have already struggled on the season ranking 58th in overall defense, 123rd in the pass rush, 51st in coverage and 38th against the run - in PFF - and these grades were from playing just LSU and Troy. Their offense has lost their ability to run the ball (big time loss in Mafah) - and are only rushing for 2.96 ypc on 51 carries in their first two games - granted one was against LSU but they should have ran over Troy. Klubnik has been banged up and struggling to sync with his receivers - ranking 72nd in passing and 96th in receiving - their offensive line hasn't done them any favors ranking 99th against the pass rush. Georgia Tech will be fired up at home and finally have the potential to upset this long established conference rivals that they didn't play last year. Vegas knows this will be a close game with the low line despite the head 2 head domination - this should come down to 3 points.

Wiscy/Bama under 45.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units

Not sold on either of these offenses - but both these defenses have historically always been one of the Top 20 year over year. Wisconsin will probably be starting their backup QB and their defense - so far against weak competition is in the Top 20 of every category in PFF. Alabama was held to 17 points, 3 ypc and 6 yards per pass against FSU defense who I doubt is that good after last years performance but only time will tell. Last year Bama won 42-10 but I think their offense is nowhere near the caliber it was. This is a low scoring grind it out game as Wiscy will struggle to put up 14 points - hopefully their defense can hold Bama down.

Troy/Memphis Over 50.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

Memphis has a completely revamped squad as they rank 122ns in experience charts. Their offense has looked very effective though like in years past averaging 41 points in their first two games. Their coaching squad is unchanged and like to call aggressive games - bringing in some tempo at times. Troy is a bit more experienced and in the 2nd year of a coaching staff overhaul so I think they will be a bit more cohesive on offense and exploit the very green defense of Memphis who has yet to play a formidable opponent. Troy averaged 26 ppg on offense over the season - but averaged 36 ppg in their last 5 games. Last year when these two teams plays it ended 38-17, I think this year its a bit closer and more points are put up.

Purdue +21 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

This is just too many points for this new Barry Odom football team to cover. Barry Odom did a great job the last two years taking the 5-7 UNLV team from the year prior to his arrival to a 9-5 team in his first year and 10-3 last year. This Purdue team was in shambles last year going 1-11 which is why this line is so high but a new coaching program can change everything and he already has more Ws than last year - albeit against weak competition - the offense, new QB have been effective as well as the defense. Odom excels at rapid improvements (e.g., Memphis from 117th to 22nd in three years; Missouri's historic top-10 in 2015). His schemes generate disruption (elite TFLs and INTs). As a head coach, his teams ranked top-40 nationally 7 out of 10 years. He has always been a run first team that can be problematic for this USC defense that ranked 79th last year in YPA allowed and bring back the same coordinators on both sides of the ball. USC also brings in a new QB and a very inexperienced team ranking 84th in Phil Steels exp charts. Give me the new Odom’s Purdue at home with 20 points this early on the season all day.

Vanderbilt/South Carolina Over 48 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units

This Vandy team has me pumped up after last week’s come from behind win last week. Jerry Kill is a legend at 2nd half adjustments and it was evident in last week's game against Vtech where they scored 34 points in the 2nd half. I couldn't find the stat tracked online but as a head coach - prior to 2022 he had one of the best ATS records, especially on the road as an underdog -I’m tempted to take the points here but am much more comfortable with the over and think we hit it easily as South Carolina should put up their fair share of points too - have scored 28 points in last years head to head matchup. This year Vanderbilt's defense has struggled against the run ranking 89th in PFF run defense and 64th in tackling. This should be a close back and forth game with both offenses being led by QBs who can extend plays and tire out defenses.

Texas AM +7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

Very surprised at this line. No write-up

Smutbucket · 09-19-25, 02:55 PM

Dapper Dan Picks:

Week 3 Results: 4-5 (-1.59 units)

Season YTD: 13-18 (-7.45 units)

Oooof. Two starting QBs get hurt in two of my overs early in the game and a kickoff return and some bs Tuddies to beat my under - another losing week. We’re due for a winning week and studying extra hard and finally able to start creating a spreadsheet with some stats. This is what we got so far - back with more tmrw morning

Week 4:

Iowa/Rutgers Over 45.5 (-111)

NC State/Duke Over 57.5 (-105)

Arkansas -6.5 (-125)

Nebraska +3.5 (-112)

Iowa/Rutgers Over 45.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units

The best bets are the toughest ones to make? This one's tough - the only 4 times these coaches and teams have squared off it has always been a low scoring affair - averaging 27.5 but I think this year is set up to have more points - and the bookies agree setting the “high” total of 46. Rutgers defense has been pretty terrible still since last year - they are currently ranked 109th overall in defensive PFF - 107th in coverage and especially bad against the run allowing opponents to run for 6pc against them - ranking 128th in the county. That’s where this Iowa offense excels - ranking 1st in run blocking in PFF and averaging 4.2 ypc. According to PFF, there’s a mismatch for both offenses on paper - as Rutgers is actually in the top 10 of most categories - including passing and receiving - albeit against soft competition - it still counts for something. These defenses are very opportunistic - so don’t be surprised if we see a defensive or special teams TD too but I think this game will get into the 50s.

NC State/Duke Over 57.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

We have two experienced QBs that have been effectively running their offenses so far averaging 30+ ppg and two defenses that have been struggling. Duke’s secondary has been especially concerning - ranking 122nd in coverage and 94th in tackling. The 11th ranked (in PFF) 6’6 CJ Bailey should have a big day with his receivers who are currently ranked 25th in PFF. Manny Diaz plays very aggressive defense, which can be effective with the right players but it has not been paying off this year - his team currently ranks 110th in DPP - 101st in plays over 4+ yards allowed, 117th in plays over 7+ yards and 111th in plays over 10+ yards. NC State has been explosive, ranking 38th in OPP, 22nd in plays over 7+ yards and 28th in plays over 10+ yards so they should capitalize on Manny’s aggressiveness. The FEI numbers show strong advantages to both offenses as well with NC State outranking Duke’s defense by an average of 65 ranks. Duke’s offense outranks NC State’s defense by an average of 10 ranks. Starting Duke QB Mensah has been great - ranking 6th in PFF in passing and his experience and great season for Tulane last year is definitely showing as he has already thrown for 1000+ yards in 3 games - Duke loves to throw - more than anybody in the league (66% of the time) and NC State runs an up-tempo offense averaging 83 plays per game and 22 seconds per play. I think this will be a shoot out although the last two times they have faced off it has gone under.

Arkansas -6.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units

I just don’t think Memphis has played anyone respectable - last week they were fortunate to have Troy’s QB get hurt on the 3rd play of the game so their defense is currently sporting some of the best numbers in the league - but I doubt that will be the case after facing this explosive Arkansas offense. Starting QB Taylen Green has really evolved over the years and is averaging 9.4 yards per pass and 9.6 yards per carry so far this season. He has great poise in the pocket as a 4 year starter (2 at Boise and 2 here). Memphis’s QB Brendan Lewis has been around longer but periodically benched and shown to struggle against tougher defenses (Power 4) like last year he threw 3 picks against Minnesota and in 2023 he only threw 2 TDs and 6 picks over the whole season - lol. Even against its weak schedule, Memphis' new green defense has struggled on 3rd down - ranking 42nd in 3rd down conv %- Arkansas’s offense has been the best in the league so far on offense converting on 78% of 3rd downs. Arkansas’s offensive line has yet to give up a sack this year and Lewis has been sacked on 7.8% of passes -ranking 92nd in the league. I think Arkansas blows out this AAC team after a rough loss to Ole Miss last week.

Nebraska +3.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units

You may have to buy some points to get this nice line. I snagged it early and shopped around. Despite Nebraska getting blown out last year by Michigan - I think with the home field advantage and experience of Nebraska this will be a close game they may even win outright. Nebraska - on both sides of the ball - are ranked in the Top 25 of almost all FEI categories and in PFF they are ranked 27th in overall defense, 5th in tackling, and 7th in coverage. On offense - their very experienced offensive line is showing their strengths ranking 11th in pass blocking and 16th in run blocking. Their receivers are also ranked 7th in the league overall in PFF. Also, Chip Lindsey has taken over the play-calling duties and although I used to be a fan (when he was with Gus) he has struggled the last few years including a UCF and last year at UNC calling the plays. Head coach Moore is also still suspended for Michigan and head coach for Nebraska- Matt Rhule is one of my highest rated coaches - having turned around Temple from 2-10 in his first year to 10-3 in his 3rd year - and then he did it again at Baylor, going 1-11 in his first year to 11-3 in his 3rd year. This is his 3rd year at Nebraska with a veteran team so I think we can expect a good season out of them and it starts with this game.

Week 3:

Arizona +1.5 (+102) W

Oregon State/T. Tech Over 61 (-109) L

Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) L

Georgia Tech +3 (-106) W

Troy/Memphis Over 50.5 (-115) L

Wiscy/Bama under 45.5 (-113) L

Purdue +21 (-105) W

Vanderbilt/South Carolina Over 48 (-112) L

Texas AM +7 (-115) W

Smutbucket · 09-20-25, 09:01 AM

Dapper Dan Picks:

Season YTD: 14-18 (-6.45 units)

Been studying all morning - just don’t have it in me to do write-ups now but I love these picks.

Week 4 Adds:

Auburn +7.5 (-125)

TCU -6.5 (-109)

Bowling Green/Louisville over 50.5 (-115)

South Carolina +10.5 (-114)

Illinois +7.5 (-128)

Florida TT Under 21.5 (-120)

Locked in before:

Week 4:

Iowa/Rutgers Over 45.5 (-111) W

NC State/Duke Over 57.5 (-105)

Arkansas -6.5 (-125)

Nebraska +3.5 (-112)

Smutbucket · 09-26-25, 02:14 PM

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 4 Results: 8-2 (+5.47 units)
Season YTD: 21-20 (-1.98 units)

Knew we were due for a winning week . Let’s see if we can keep it rolling. This is what we got locked in so far. More tomorrow

Week 5:
FSU -6.5 (-120)
TCU +3.5 (-125)
Louisville/Pitt Under 57.5 (-110)
Kansas TT Over 30.5 (-120)
Iowa +8.5 (-109)

FSU -6.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
FSU should smash here. UVA has just not really played anyone so their PFF grades and stats are impressive but wait til they face this FSU defense that ranks 3rd against the run - holding opponents to 2.3 ypc. They are also great against the pass - ranking 8th in opponents completion % and 27th in ypp - this isn’t going to be Stanford’s or Coastal Carolina team. On offense, it looks as if Malzahn has found a veteran capable of executing his offense in Tommy Castellanos. Until someone stops them on the ground they will run at will averaging 7.1 ypc and running 72% of the time. Tommy has only had to throw 38 passes on the season, completing 71% of them for 15.6 yards per pass. They rank 1st in plays over 10+ yards, 7+ yards, and 2nd in 30+ yards. A problem for this UVA defense that despite the weak schedule, ranks 90th in plays over 10+ yards allowed and 63rd in plays over 7+ yards. UVA’s QB is one of these 6th year COVID guys still lingering after transferring through 3 different programs - finally landing in UVA this year after having a semi-decent year last year but it was at North Texas against some horrible defenses he completed 62% of his passes averaging 7.4 ypp with 31:12 TD:INT ratio - against tough defenses like Army's (are they even tough?) Last year he went 24-37 for 5.8 ypp and 2 INT’s where his team only put up 3 points. He was slinging it around because their defense was so bad but he was by no means good or playing any type of comparable competition that he will see in this game. FSU runs over UVA.

TCU +3.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
The strengths of this TCU team are pitted against the weaknesses of this ASU team so I will take these points all day and think we can potentially win outright. Arizona State’s offense wants to run the ball, ranking 14th in run play % - that has been the strength of this TCU defense who only has allowed opponents to run for 2.6 ypc (rk #17th) and 21st in PFF run defense. TCU’s offense wants to throw the ball and they have been doing it well with Hoover ranking 36th in passing PFF and his receivers ranking 10th in PFF. Arizona State has allowed opponents to complete 64% of their passes (ranking 83rd and for 6.6 ypp (ranking #47th) - they also rank 47th in PFF in coverage. In PFF’s positional matchups - TCU has edges on both sides of the ball - with their offense outranking ASU defense by an average of 33 ranks - the highest mismatch being in overall offense where TCU ranks 20th and ASU ranks 71st. On the other side of the ball - if you exclude passblocking (where ASU ranks 18th and TCU ranks 107th in pass rush) - then TCU’s defense also outranks them by an average of 27 ranks - with the largest being against the run as for PFF run grading I average their Run grade (19th) with their Runblock grade (90th) which is 54.5 and TCU’s run defense is ranked 21st so it gives them a mismatch of 33.5 ranks. We also have mismatches in FEI averaged across all categories. TCU's offense outranks them by 28 ranks and on defense they outrank ASU by an average of 20 ranks. ASU’s defense has struggled giving up the big play - ranking 95th in plays over 10+ yards and 66th in plays over 7+ yards. TCU’s explosive offense should exploit this and rank 17th in plays over 7+ yards, rank 23rd in plays over 10+ yards, and 28th in plays over 30+ yards. We also have a huge mismatch on 3rd down’s on both sides of the ball as TCU’s offense ranks 11th against ASU’s defense who ranks 65th. For ASU’s offense its even worse as they have struggled ranking 104th and TCU’s defense ranks 6th only allowing opponents to convert on 21%! This is an easy writeup on paper lets see if it translates to the field.

Louisville/Pitt Under 57.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
These two coaches are very familiar with each other facing off the last two years and have split 1-1. The story for both of these teams have been their defenses with both ranking in the Top 10 overall in PFF. They both are especially good in creating havoc and in the pass rush with Pitt ranking 3rd and Louisville ranking 1st! This has been a problem for both offenses (who love to throw) and Pitt ranks 64th and Louisville ranks 65th so both offensive lines should struggle to contain the defensive fronts. In sack% the mismatch is huge with Louisville's offensive line ranking #117th and Pitt’s defense ranking 5th in sack %. Pitt’s offensive line hasn't been much better ranking #114th and Louisville's defense ranking 10th! They are also both great against the run with Pitt ranking 13th and Louisville ranking 37th in PFF. In FEI we show the mismatches in favor of both defenses with the overall average across all FEI categories in favor of Pitt’s defense by 27 ranks and for Louisville's defense by 39 ranks. Both defenses have been stiff against the big play with Louisville ranking 1st in plays over 10+ yards allowed and 2nd in plays over 30+ allowed - only 2 on the season. Pitt’s defense has been almost as good too, ranking 16th in plays over 10+ yards and 20th in plays over 30+ yards allowed. As much as I hate unders, this one qualifies in all 3 major statistical categories I look at - PFF, FEI, and OPP.

Iowa +8.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Are the bookies serious with this line? Smells like a trap but sign me up with a defense that is in the Top 25 of most categories - including opponents yards per rush against them which is 2.3 and ranked 11th best in the country. Indiana runs 62% of the time and their ability to do so sets up their whole offense.

Kansas TT Over 30.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
This is an elite veteran Kansas offense that has averaged 37 ppg so far this season. Daniels is syncing nicely with his old co-OC who took over the play-calling duties this year. The last time these two teams faced off, the season before last in Nov of 2023 - Kansas put up 49 points and that was after Daniels got hurt and Jason Bean led the Jayhawks to that easy win. I’m not sure if this will be a shoot out or if Kansas will just run away with it so I like the 30 points here and I think we are getting some value as Cincinnati's defense is high in the rankings but has not played anybody so - Kansas should score at will.

Week 4: 8-2 (+5.47 units)
Iowa/Rutgers Over 45.5 (-111) W
NC State/Duke Over 57.5 (-105) W
Arkansas -6.5 (-125) L
Nebraska +3.5 (-112) W
Auburn +7.5 (-125) W
TCU -6.5 (-109) W
Bowling Green/Louisville over 50.5 (-115) W
South Carolina +10.5 (-114) W
Illinois +7.5 (-128) L
Florida TT Under 21.5 (-120) W

Smutbucket · 09-27-25, 09:21 AM

Dapper Dan Picks

Season YTD: 22-21 (-2.18 units)

Oy vey - FSU did everything they could to lose that game.

No writeups for these sorry- dad duties this morning. Tried to go light but eh…..

Week 5 Adds:

Minnesota -4 (-104)

Kansas State -5 (-110)

Gtech -13.5 (-108)

Auburn +7 (-112)

EMU +3.5 (-115)

Arizona +6.5 (-110)

Penn State ML (-167)

Georgia ML (-128)

BYU -6.5 (-103)

Smutbucket · 10-04-25, 09:11 AM

Dapper Dan Picks:

Week 5 Results: 5-9 (-5.65 units)

Season YTD: 26-29 (-7.63 units)

Ooof….rough week last week - pissed at myself as almost all my leans won and some games I switched off the numbers trying to be contrarian and busted - yada yada…..going back to an old rule - no picks unless writeups! Try to keep them short and sweet - just finished them all this morning so. Here we gooooooo.

Week 6:

Iowa State/Cinn over 55.5 (-105)

Baylor -4.5 (-120)

Clemson -14 (-110)

Arizona -20.5 (-107)

Vanderbilt/Alabama Over 55.5 (-120)

Penn State -24.5 (-101)

Minnesota +23.5 (-105)

Kansas -3.5 (-115)

Miami/FSU Over 53.5 (-112)

Duke/Cal Over 54 (-110)

Iowa State/Cinn over 55.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Both teams offensive strengths are up against the other teams defensive weaknesses so this should be a shootout. Iowa State’s defense is ranked 100th against the run in PFF and 75th in tackling - Cincinnati’s offense ranks 7th in the run and 43rd in run blocking. Cincinnati defense has struggled against the pass - ranking 80th in coverage and Iowa State’s offense ranks 15th in passing and 28th in receiving in PFF. Cincinnati ranks 135 in opponents completion %, and 120th in ypp allowed - safe to say Rocho Becht should have a field day. What really makes me lean over is the depleted secondary of Iowa State - last week they lost two of their top corners - and have even some 3rd and 4th stringers now we will see a lot of snaps with a total of 5 defensive backs on the injury report - this will be a very green defense. This is dangerous for a very capable Sorsby who can hit a ton of explosive plays and rank 10th in plays over 10+ yards and 38th in plays over 30+ yards. The FEI numbers shows an advantage to both offenses in almost every category and by an average of 38 ranks for Iowa States and 13 ranks for Cinn. Despite both teams' preference to run - and the last two years they have faced off it has gone under the total - this year they should see big plays and tons of points on both sides of the ball.

Baylor -4.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

Almost went with the over in this one too but decided to go with Baylor. Kansas State by the numbers is obviously not the same team it was the last few years. They have struggled on both sides of the ball, last week they were able to beat UCF by 14 but that’s not much of an accomplishment. Kansas State’s offense is ranked 82nd in PFF and their defense is ranked 70th in PFF. Their offense has really struggled on 3rd and 4th down - converting on less then 34% and in the bottom 10% of both of these rankings. Avery Johnson can’t hit a deep ball and is only averaging 6.7 yards per pass on the season, Sawyer Roberton is averaging 8.2 ypp and has nearly double the yardage and TD’s. These two teams did not play last year but in 2022 and 2023 Kansas State had Baylors numbers and won and covered so this is a revenge game at home against a conference team and I expect this David Aranda team to be fired up and ready to play - they will pull out all the stops and should pull away in the 2nd half against a KSU team that has been out of sync all year.

Clemson -14 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

Clemson has been horrible on the season but in their defense they have had the 8th toughest schedule to date according to Sagarin with LSU, Gtech and Syracuse. Bellicheck’s North Carolina team has struggled too - but against much easier opponents - ranking 104th in Sagarin SOS. Their offense has really struggled and the FEI numbers show an average of 55 ranks across all categories in favor of Clemson’s defense. UNC is giving up twice as many points (28 ppg) on defense then they are averaging on offense 14 points - and with this mismatch their’s no reason to believe this game doesn’t go over that average and Clemson finally blows a team out this year.

Arizona -20.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units

Oklahoma State has given up on the season - they fired Gundy and their DC Grantham - 2 safeties have entered the transfer portal - and one was dismissed from the team after a sideline altercation. They are literally in the bottom 5% of almost every statistical category on both sides of the ball - averaging 14 points per game and giving up 44 points per game. Arizona should bounce back after a tough loss last week to Iowa State against this joke of a team.

Vanderbilt/Alabama Over 55.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

Another over that’s looking really nice thanks to injuries on both teams for defense. Last year their was 75 points put up in this matchup and Vanderbilt pulled off the upset at home. Alabama will be looking for revenge but Jerry Kill and Paiva will have a ton of trickery ready to put up some points of their own. They currently rank in the top 15 of every offensive category in PFF - with this exception of pass blocking but Alabama has struggled in the pass rush (and have two D-LineMan out - one for first half targeting) and rank 120th in PFF in the pass rush. In FEI, Vanderbilt’s offense is ranked in the Top 5 of almost every category - in plays over 10 yards they rank 3rd, plays over 7 yards they rank 4th. Their defense has been susceptible to much worse offenses then Alabama and rank 76th in plays over 10+ yards allowed. In FEI Alabama - despite the much harder schedule - still outrank Vandy’s defense by an average of 20+ ranks accross all categories. Another shootout!

Penn State -24.5 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units

Another expected blow out on paper - Penn State should come out firing after the tough loss to Oregon and UCLA should give up after losing to Northwestern last week. I’ll just give you the averages accross all stat categories that I track - for PFF - on offense - averaged across all categories Penn State outranks UCLAs defense by an average of 70 ranks - on defense they outrank them in every positional category by an average of 89 ranks! Even in special teams they outrank them by 77 in PFF. In FEI you have the same gross mismatches statistically with Penn State’s offense outranking UCLA’s defense by an average of 70 ranks accross all categories and their defense outranking them by 60 ranks. In net yards per play, Penn State ranks 21st nd UCLA ranks 100th. Easy write-up and Franklin isn’t the type to take his foot off the gas - especially after a loss.

Minnesota +23.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Surprised to see such a big line in this one, last week Washington hung in there with Ohio State until the 4th qtr and I think this Minnesota team is much better equipped to keep this one close. Their offense in PFF outranks Ohio State’s with Drake Lindsey ranking 2nd in passing and his receivers ranking 22nd. As always Minnesota’s defense is no slouch either - ranking 45th overall and 19th in coverage. They don’t give up big plays ranking 7th in plays over 10+ yards and this Ohio State football team has not had the same success in them ranking 71st in plays over 10+ yards. Have you seen this new QB Julian Sayin? I mean he looks like a high school QB and I expect Fleck to put some pressure on him and I’m much more comfortable with Drake and 24 points - even on the road.

Kansas -3.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

I doubt UCF’s new offense can keep up with this veteran Kansas offense. In PFF UCF ranks 100th in passing and 72nd in receiving. In rushing they rank 42nd. Their offensive line has been a big problem - ranking 83rd in run blocking and 60th in pass blocking. Kansas’s defensive line should cause some problems in the backfield ranking 18th in the pass rush. Kansas shows edges in most categories and with the significantly harder schedule. Buy it down to -3 if you can for -130.

Miami/FSU Over 53.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units

Both offenses are in the Top 10 of almost every category in PFF. On defense - they’ve had some struggles with FSU ranking 83rd in coverage and 85th in tackling and Miami ranking 58th in coverage and 94th in tackling. Although Miami’s defense has been stout up front I’m not convinced they will be fully prepared for this tricky FSU offense - their run style and blocking schemes are unlike any team they have faced. In FEI FSU’s offense is better on paper - ranking in the Top 5 in nearly every offensive category - I was a bit surprised to see Miami’s offense in the middle to the bottom of most FEI categories - but FSU defense can be exposed like they were last week against UVA (knew the over was the better play) Both teams have struggled in special teams - crazy things happen in these rivalry games and I think we will see a lot of points.

Duke/Cal Over 54 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

Rounding off the card with another over. Last week Manny Diaz did what he does best and brough tons of pressure and took advantage of Syracuse’s backup QB and held them to 3 points. Aside from that their defense has had plenty of holes - ranking 125th in coverage and 77th overall. They rank in the bottom 10% of plays over 10+, 7+ and 4+ plays allowed. I love this Cal freshman qb Lefty - Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele - he could use some help from his receivers but knows how to zip the ball around and buy some time with his legs. Both teams love to throw and have not been able to do much on the ground. Both defenses have struggled in tackling with Cal ranking 110th and Duke ranking 68th. In FEI both offenses show strong advantages too - cap off the night with another over in what were betting to be a high scoring week.

Week 5:

FSU -6.5 (-120) L

TCU +3.5 (-125) W

Louisville/Pitt Under 57.5 (-110) L

Kansas TT Over 30.5 (-120) W

Iowa +8.5 (-109) W

Minnesota -4 (-104) L

Kansas State -5 (-110) W

Gtech -13.5 (-108) L

Auburn +7 (-112) W

EMU +3.5 (-115) L

Arizona +6.5 (-110) L

Penn State ML (-167) L

Georgia ML (-128) L

BYU -6.5 (-103) L

Smutbucket · 10-10-25, 04:24 PM

Dapper Dan Picks:

Week 6 Results: 5-5 (-0.58 units)

Season YTD: 31-34 (-8.21 units)

Back tomorrow morning with more….only a few I think

Week 7:

Rutgers/Wash Over 59.5 (-110)

Indiana +7.5 (-115)

Kansas +14.5 (-111)

Rutgers/Wash Over 59.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

I mean this is all green for OVER on my spreadsheets - as should be for all Rutgers games the way they've been playing this year. Here is the average differential in the stat categories I follow - PFF - across all positional categories - Rutgers offense outranks Washington's defense by an average of 72 ranks - for Washington’s offense its 90 ranks! FEI - Rutgers outranks Wash defense by an average of 62 ranks - for Washington's offense 91 ranks! In ypp - Rutgers doesnt have many big plays over 10+ yards and Washington is the type to not allow big plays to happen but Rutgers defense is and Washington so put up 35+ themselves - hopefully Rutgers is in the 30’s. This was the most obvious OVER by the numbers but maybe it's the Friday night trap?

Indiana +7.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

I’ll take the TD plus with these two teams on paper. Indiana is Top 15 in almost every category on PFF - including 1st on offense where Oregon and their new QB, Dante Moore only rank 10th overall. On defense - Indiana is 6th overall and Oregon’s defense is 31st. They have struggled against the run - where they rank 65th in PFF and Indiana is ranked 12th in rushing and 3rd in run blocking so they should be able to run at will. There is not a big SOS discrepancy like there was last year when Indiana met Oregon undefeated in Week 11 and got smashed. They will be prepared for Oregon’s new team and should keep this one close - even on the road.

Kansas +14.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units

I mean seriously bookies? Sign me up for all these traps I guess - I woulda probably taken Kansas in a pick 'em but have never had much respect for Texas Tech all year. Their Sagarin SOS shows they have played the 151st hardest schedule this season so Kansas SOS although ranked 54th is much higher than T. Tech’s. Texas Tech defense is ranked in the Top 10 in most categories but who’s the toughest offense they faced? Utah and then who? This should be a shootout but no way is Kansas not at least back-dooring but may be worth to sprinkle some on the ML too as this is a game Kansas has circled this season as they have lost to Texas Tech the last few times they have played them - including two blowouts in 2021 and 22.

Week 6:

Iowa State/Cinn over 55.5 (-105) W

Baylor -4.5 (-120) L

Clemson -14 (-110) W

Arizona -20.5 (-107) W

Vanderbilt/Alabama Over 55.5 (-120) L

Penn State -24.5 (-101) L

Minnesota +23.5 (-105) L

Kansas -3.5 (-115) W

Miami/FSU Over 53.5 (-112) L

Duke/Cal Over 54 (-110) W

Smutbucket · 2025-10-11T14:25:40+00:00

Dapper Dan Picks:

Season YTD: 31-35 (-9.31 units)

Oy - last night was brutal - right pick but wrong result…. just been one of those seasons….the breaks will come…4 times either turnover on downs or turnover in red zone…smdh…Fired up for these~!

Week 7 Adds:

Bowling Green +10.5 (-115)

Oklahoma +1.5 (-111)

Ark/Tenn Over 67.5 (-118)

TCU ML (-122)

Arizona +2.5 (-105)

Bowling Green +10.5 (-115)

We got a MAC rivalry game with a beautiful SOS discrepancy setup. Bowling Green has almost a 100 rank differential in SOS then Toledo who has had it easy so far this season ranking 132nd in SOS. Bowling Green has improved on the season, despite the tough schedule having already faced Cinn, Louisville and Ohio. The last 3 years these teams have played, Bowling Green has been dogs and they have won outright in 2 of 3 and covered in all 3. I think this will be a close one.

Oklahoma +1.5 (-111)

This is mostly an eye test and rivalry feel after watching these two teams a bit and the last few games against each other. The stats on paper are pretty even with both defenses being elite but Oklahoma’s offense has been a bit better and Arche has not lived up to the hype - ranking 57th in passing.

Ark/Tenn Over 67.5 (-118)

Both teams are coming off a bye, both teams run fast pace of plays, Arkansas’s defense has been horrible and although Tennessee’s defense has some decent numbers - they haven’t faced an offense like Arkansas. Arkansas prefers to throw - which has been a vulnerability of this Tenn defense that ranks #115th in completion % allowed and 74th in ypp allowed. FEI numbers show advantages to both offenses as well. Expect big plays too.

TCU ML (-122)

The strengths of this TCU team exploits the weaknesses of this Kansas State team. TCU’s receivers rank 13th in PFF and Hoover has stretched the field with deep balls. Kansas State’s secondary has been a problem ranking 98th nationally, 63 in coverage in PFF, and 58th in defensive passing efficiency. They also have been poor tacklers ranking 77th where TCU has been fundamentally sound ranking 27th in PFF tackling. This is a BIG 12 rivalry game who didn’t face each other last year, TCU is ready for some revenge after losing to them in 2022 and 2023.

Arizona +2.5 (-105)

I love me some Fifita who looks great this season but his receivers have not stepped up for him - ranking 98th in PFF. They should start improving with Fifita and his 22nd PFF passer ranking. The bigger surprise has been this Arizona defense who is in the Top 10 of most categories - their coverage has been great ranking 3rd in coverage and 2nd in defensive passing efficency. Granted it has been against weak competition but BYU’s SOS isn’t much better. Another revenge matchup at home as last year BYU blew them out - but Arizona has had a ton of turnover from their team last year - but Fifita steal leads the offense and they will win tonight at home.

Smutbucket · 2025-10-11T14:36:15+00:00

Oops - left off:
Adding: Iowa -3 (-112)