The college football season kicks off this weekend and SBR's Rob Paul shares his College Football Playoff predictions:
Big Ten Champion: Penn State (+240 bet365)
"Though the Big Ten has three teams ranked within the top 10 of SP+ heading into the season, Penn State is the only one with a returning starter at QB. Ohio State (Julian Sayin), Oregon (Dante Moore), and Michigan (Bryce Underwood/Mikey Keene) all have new starting QBs, while the Nittany Lions return Drew Allar.
Allar isn't the only big name back in Happy Valley, either; Penn State ranks top 25 in returning production with potential All-Americans like Nicholas Singleton, Olaivavega Ioane, Drew Shelton, Zane Durant, Zakee Wheatley, and A.J. Harris back. Plus, James Franklin fixed his wide receiver problem via the transfer portal by bringing in Trebor Pena (Syracuse), Devonte Ross (Troy), and Kyron Hudson (USC)."
SEC Champion: Alabama (+450 bet365)
"The debut of Kalen DeBoer as Nick Saban's replacement left a lot to be desired, but Alabama remains one of the most talented teams in the country and returns one of the nation's best offensive lines. Kadyn Proctor, Parker Brailsford, and Jaeden Roberts (if he's healthy) are All-American candidates up front. Behind them is new starting QB Ty Simpson, who steps into a scheme that helped Michael Penix Jr. become a top-10 pick - DeBoer even brought back Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator. Simpson also gets to throw to one of the best wide receiver trios in the country (Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton).
The defense isn't short on talent, either, with LT Overton, Tim Keenan III, Deontae Lawson, Domani Jackson, Bray Hubbard, and Keon Sabb all back. The Crimson Tide are the only team in the country that ranks top six in both offensive and defensive SP+ heading into the season."
ACC Champion: Clemson (+110 bet365)
"The ACC is the weakest of the Power Four conferences this season, and anything less than Clemson winning double-digit games and taking the conference title should be deemed a massive disappointment. The Tigers rank No. 1 in the country in returning production and bring back a Heisman Trophy odds candidate at QB in Cade Klubnik. He gets to throw to a wide receiver room full of future pros, led by Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr., and T.J. Moore. Plus, Dabo Swinney's squad returns three All-ACC-caliber offensive linemen (Tristan Leigh, Walker Parks, Blake Miller) and adds a budding star in freshman running back Gideon Davidson.
Defensively, this looks like Swinney's previous championship-winning teams. The defensive line is terrifying, with two potential top-10 picks in T.J. Parker and Peter Woods, plus Swinney even bolstered the group via the portal with Will Heldt (Purdue). The linebacker room has two sledgehammers in Sammy Brown and Wade Woodaz, and cornerback Avieon Terrell should be a first-round pick like his brother. Clemson's biggest challengers will be SMU and Louisville, who both rank outside the top 15 in SP+."
Big 12 Champion: Kansas State (+600 BetMGM)
"The Big 12 has more parity than any other Power Four conference, primarily because there are so many talented quarterbacks in it. Nine of the 16 programs return their starting QBs from last season, while others added young talent at the position via the portal - Utah (Devon Dampier), BYU (Bear Bachmeier), Houston (Conner Weigman), etc. But no team is as well-rounded as Kansas State, which brings back one of the most dynamic QBs in the country in Avery Johnson.
Though Johnson isn't as polished as Sam Leavitt at Arizona State, his mobility can be a game-changer. The Wildcats also bring back so much; they're No. 16 in returning production, with players like Dylan Edwards, Jayce Brown, VJ Payne, and Austin Romaine. They're the reason K-State is the only team in the conference that ranks top 20 in SP+ (18th). The key to taking the title from Arizona State, and not being stopped by Utah's revamped offense and Texas Tech's $25-million roster, will be the offensive line."
Highest-ranked Group of 5 Champion: Boise State
"Losing a talent like Ashton Jeanty would derail most Group of Five teams, but Boise State isn't most G5 programs. The Broncos lost the Heisman runner-up and still sit No. 13 in returning production and are far and away the highest rated G5 team by SP+ (No. 33). Outside of Tulane, no G5 team comes close to Boise State's talent, and the Green Wave play in a far more competitive conference (American Athletic Conference) - as Memphis, UTSA, Army, Navy, and South Florida are all poised for strong years. And James Madison also plays in a strong-looking Sun Belt conference.
The Broncos, meanwhile, play a schedule that's 104th in strength of schedule, return starting QB Maddux Madsen, have the top NFL draft prospect in the G5 (Kage Casey), and have another potentially dynamic running back in Sire Gaines. Boise State could cruise to an 11-1 record, with its lone loss to Notre Dame, before winning the Mountain West title."
Big Ten Champion: Penn State (+240 bet365)
"Though the Big Ten has three teams ranked within the top 10 of SP+ heading into the season, Penn State is the only one with a returning starter at QB. Ohio State (Julian Sayin), Oregon (Dante Moore), and Michigan (Bryce Underwood/Mikey Keene) all have new starting QBs, while the Nittany Lions return Drew Allar.
Allar isn't the only big name back in Happy Valley, either; Penn State ranks top 25 in returning production with potential All-Americans like Nicholas Singleton, Olaivavega Ioane, Drew Shelton, Zane Durant, Zakee Wheatley, and A.J. Harris back. Plus, James Franklin fixed his wide receiver problem via the transfer portal by bringing in Trebor Pena (Syracuse), Devonte Ross (Troy), and Kyron Hudson (USC)."
SEC Champion: Alabama (+450 bet365)
"The debut of Kalen DeBoer as Nick Saban's replacement left a lot to be desired, but Alabama remains one of the most talented teams in the country and returns one of the nation's best offensive lines. Kadyn Proctor, Parker Brailsford, and Jaeden Roberts (if he's healthy) are All-American candidates up front. Behind them is new starting QB Ty Simpson, who steps into a scheme that helped Michael Penix Jr. become a top-10 pick - DeBoer even brought back Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator. Simpson also gets to throw to one of the best wide receiver trios in the country (Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton).
The defense isn't short on talent, either, with LT Overton, Tim Keenan III, Deontae Lawson, Domani Jackson, Bray Hubbard, and Keon Sabb all back. The Crimson Tide are the only team in the country that ranks top six in both offensive and defensive SP+ heading into the season."
ACC Champion: Clemson (+110 bet365)
"The ACC is the weakest of the Power Four conferences this season, and anything less than Clemson winning double-digit games and taking the conference title should be deemed a massive disappointment. The Tigers rank No. 1 in the country in returning production and bring back a Heisman Trophy odds candidate at QB in Cade Klubnik. He gets to throw to a wide receiver room full of future pros, led by Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr., and T.J. Moore. Plus, Dabo Swinney's squad returns three All-ACC-caliber offensive linemen (Tristan Leigh, Walker Parks, Blake Miller) and adds a budding star in freshman running back Gideon Davidson.
Defensively, this looks like Swinney's previous championship-winning teams. The defensive line is terrifying, with two potential top-10 picks in T.J. Parker and Peter Woods, plus Swinney even bolstered the group via the portal with Will Heldt (Purdue). The linebacker room has two sledgehammers in Sammy Brown and Wade Woodaz, and cornerback Avieon Terrell should be a first-round pick like his brother. Clemson's biggest challengers will be SMU and Louisville, who both rank outside the top 15 in SP+."
Big 12 Champion: Kansas State (+600 BetMGM)
"The Big 12 has more parity than any other Power Four conference, primarily because there are so many talented quarterbacks in it. Nine of the 16 programs return their starting QBs from last season, while others added young talent at the position via the portal - Utah (Devon Dampier), BYU (Bear Bachmeier), Houston (Conner Weigman), etc. But no team is as well-rounded as Kansas State, which brings back one of the most dynamic QBs in the country in Avery Johnson.
Though Johnson isn't as polished as Sam Leavitt at Arizona State, his mobility can be a game-changer. The Wildcats also bring back so much; they're No. 16 in returning production, with players like Dylan Edwards, Jayce Brown, VJ Payne, and Austin Romaine. They're the reason K-State is the only team in the conference that ranks top 20 in SP+ (18th). The key to taking the title from Arizona State, and not being stopped by Utah's revamped offense and Texas Tech's $25-million roster, will be the offensive line."
Highest-ranked Group of 5 Champion: Boise State
"Losing a talent like Ashton Jeanty would derail most Group of Five teams, but Boise State isn't most G5 programs. The Broncos lost the Heisman runner-up and still sit No. 13 in returning production and are far and away the highest rated G5 team by SP+ (No. 33). Outside of Tulane, no G5 team comes close to Boise State's talent, and the Green Wave play in a far more competitive conference (American Athletic Conference) - as Memphis, UTSA, Army, Navy, and South Florida are all poised for strong years. And James Madison also plays in a strong-looking Sun Belt conference.
The Broncos, meanwhile, play a schedule that's 104th in strength of schedule, return starting QB Maddux Madsen, have the top NFL draft prospect in the G5 (Kage Casey), and have another potentially dynamic running back in Sire Gaines. Boise State could cruise to an 11-1 record, with its lone loss to Notre Dame, before winning the Mountain West title."