Wal's College Football Week #13

[BigdaddyQH]

ok guys i am trying to follow you but i am just a dumb redneck hill billy from kentucky, give me a couple of examples, using some real teams and real lines, i would appreciate it thanks for your time

Here are a couple of examples from last week. When the lead line came out, Iowa was -13 against Minnesota. We thought that the line was too high, so we took Minnesota +13. Then the line dropped all the way down to 9.5, so we took Iowa -9.5. Iowa wins the game 12-0, so we win BOTH wagers. Iowa covered the -9.5, and Minnesota covered the +13. We took Rice +8, and UTEP -6.5. Rice wins straight up, so we split, winning the Rice wager but losing the UTEP wager. That is basically how it works.

[wal66]

These are my LEANS as of now. I know my plays this week will come from this list. I only have 4 official plays right now and that number may or may not increase.


Western Michigan
Nevada
Temple
Pittsburgh
Central Florida
UConn
East Carolina
Troy
Middle Tennessee St
Stanford
Navy


I am not able to get down on these games till later in the week at my book with the exception of Tuesday game.

[ImBettor]

Here are a couple of examples from last week. When the lead line came out, Iowa was -13 against Minnesota. We thought that the line was too high, so we took Minnesota +13. Then the line dropped all the way down to 9.5, so we took Iowa -9.5. Iowa wins the game 12-0, so we win BOTH wagers. Iowa covered the -9.5, and Minnesota covered the +13. We took Rice +8, and UTEP -6.5. Rice wins straight up, so we split, winning the Rice wager but losing the UTEP wager. That is basically how it works.

sounds like a good strategy, but doesn't the juice kill you?

[wal66]

When you hit the middle there is no juice
Only time there is juice involve would have been if in the situation above Minnesota had won by 14 or 9.

[wal66]

This is why it takes very good knowledge of line movement. Even more so than normal wagering. a couple of middles makes up for a lot of juice.

[wal66]

QH, I had a buddy a few years ago who started creating his own middles by buying either side. We tried to warn him how risky this method could be but I guess some like your group who have much experience with line movements could afford to dabble in this process. Does your group sometimes buy a 1/2 point here and there to get the middle you desire or do you wait for te line to do it all?

The friend went bust by the way.

[madworld]

Keep up the good work!

[eastvan09]

I've never tried middling.

Wal, how high are you comfortable betting Navy? I notice the line is up to -9 and -9.5 in some places, it may move above 10. I'm not going to lay double digits

[wal66]

Personally I won't go over 10. I think Navy is focused and really determined and THINK this will be a comfortable cover but I still won't go beyong 10. A good chance because of my personal limit I may not get this game by the time my book offers it.

[jeccross]

thank you for your answer, i am starting to see, to quote you its still fuzy, but if you do it on a game tell me the game and the lines, i kinda see where they are coming from by (middling)

"Sharps Sports Betting" explains this well. It is also possible to place both bets at the same time for a +EV middle if you can find books with stale lines, tends to be higher lines though which are less likely to hit. There's still value though sometimes.

[jeccross]

Here is how we determine a good middle. First, we have to see the lead lines. We have already assigned a line to each game, just as you do. When the lead comes out, we have someone ready to roll. We look for key numbers, such as 3, 4, 7, 10, and 14. We try to play our middles as early as possible, incase of injuries, like the example you just mentioned. The philosophy behind middles is the make the maximum amount of money with the minimum amount of risk. When you middle, three good things can happen. Both teams (A and B) can cover. One team can cover and the other tie (Team A covers and team B ties, or Team A ties and team B covers). The worst that can happen is that you split, and have lost some vig. If you middle for $100.00 on each team, you wager a total of $220.00. If you hit it, you win a total of $420.00 for a $200.00 profit. If you get a win and a push, you collect $210.00 on the winning ticket and push the tie, giving you a $100.00 profit. Worse case scenario is that you split, and lose $10.00 in vig. If you hit one middle, you can split 19 others, and still have a profit. We have done very well on middles this year. We figure that as of now, we have made an extra 50% by middling. In all honesty, this is the best we have ever done. This season may be out best. We hitting at 60%, and a lot of that is because of successful middle.

The key here is to have accurate numbers BEFORE the lines come out. You must have the ability to accurately predict where the line will end up at game time. This is absolutely critical, because if you wager on the lead, and the line goes the other way, you are basically stuck with a wager that you may not want. Another thing we do, but not very often, is play a side middle against a money line middle. We adjust the amount of our wager to guarantee a small profit even if we split. The trick to that is to find a game where the lines may swing to favor a team after they opened up as a dog. Again, accurate numbers are critical. We spent more money than you want to know refining our computer. We feed it with over 1500 angles and trends involving college teams, plus our stregnths and weaknesses for each position on each team, plus gambler trends to try and outguess the LVSC, which does the exact same thing.

How accurate is your model at predicting moves, i.e. how often do you get left with an open 1 sider?

Also do you leave the bet open in this case or try and close out by buying points for a small guaranteed loss?

[tommyminh]

wal66 keep it up bro

[BigdaddyQH]

First, as far as the juice is concerned, if you hit 1 middle, you could split 20 middles and come out even. This is what we mean by the maximum return for the minimum amount of risk.

Next, we never buy points. Buying points is like buying insurance in Black Jack. It is there for a reason, and that reason is to allow the house (or book) to make more money off of the player. Rarely does a half point determine a winner or loser in a play, and to consistantly give away 10-30% as some players in here do is rediculous. It is tough enough giving up the 10%. In Craps, the odds are a lot better, as they are in Blackjack and even some slots. IF you are that unsure about the wager, do not make it.

As far as the accuracy of our models is concerned, we are normally 1/2 to 1 point off the final line. Since we have a person who lives in Vegas and can wager at a moments notice for us, we normally find a number sometimes during the week at one of the Vegas books we use that will give us our middle. Now I want to stress the fact that this is a TEAM effort. All of us have different areas of expertese, if you will. Each of us is responsible for feeding the computer accurate information to generate accurate plays. We have one person who does nothing but read every post on every site to get a feeling of what Joe Pub is thinking. We have people who break down offenses and defenses of every team. We have others who are responsible for technical information, like angles and treands. I do not see how one person could do this successfully. It is one thing to wager middles. It is another to be successful. Remember, when lines are posted, hey project what the public will think is a fair line. Most of the time they are dead on in the colleges, and they are almost always dead on in the pros, because there are only a maximum of 16 games in the pros. But in the college ranks, where there are between 40-50 games or more a week, a few are going to get thru the cracks. Last week we had 4. This week we have 2. Never a lot. We have not been stuck with an open one sider this year. Last year when it happened, we just opted out and sacrificed the vig.

We noticed something ery interesting this year. We play "futures" to middle as well. There have been many games where the future line has been the same line as the gametime line. Many more than we are used to. This indicates that because of the current economic slump, Vegas is playing things much closer to the vest this year than in previous years. It got so bad in Vegas that Ballys closed their book (one of the best for horses) during the summer and had their guests wager at the Paris Book, their sister hotel joined at the wasit, so to speak. If it was this bad in Vegas, you can imagine what the offshore books are going through. They are smaller, have nowheres near the means to generate income, and can not easily recover from a big loss. They also have to offer "incentives" for people to join, which comes out of their pockets. Maybe this is why so many people in here are getting screwed by offshore books one way or another.

[jeccross]

Do you always close out the middle? Surely there's spots where only one side of the line is wrong, taking the middle is +EV, but keeping just one side is more +EV (but understandably more risky).

[wal66]

11-24-09
Ball St @ Western Michigan
ESPN 2


I was planning on having a play tonight on Western Michigan. My program set the line here as Western Michigan -13 so I had some value in the beginning. I ran all the numbers and looked at every game these teams have played this season. While it is true Western Michigan has performed better they haven’t been overly convincingly better. My number on this game was -10 and it has climbed as high as -13 in some places before coming back down to -11 at most books now. It crossed over my limit so I am staying away from the side in this game. Everything on the season numbers indicates Ball St can stay within this number. What I feel about a team or a situation has to go out the window when the numbers don’t support the thoughts.

I do however want to have something in play tonight. Since it can’t be a side that leaves me with two options. I can tease this game to the numbers I prefer or I can play the total here. While I would prefer to tease this game I have little success in this area. On the season I have lost more teasers than I have won. So I am going with the total tonight. Scary as that is for me I am willing to risk a small amount just for some excitement. NOT A SMART IDEA by the way but it’s my money and as long as I feel I am responsible in telling everyone how much I SUCK at totals then I can rest at ease.

After crunching all the numbers from regular season to common opponents to previous head to head match ups I compute an average score of 29-25 Western Michigan. Now with the variables and intangibles allowed for I feel confident enough in making a small play here on the over. Confidence for me on a total should not equate to confidence for you.

Play:

Ball St/Western Michigan over 51.5 (1/2 unit play)

[tcarn01]

its going to rain.....

[wal66]

Hopefully it will rain points. I've been on the wrong side of the weatehr all year. Report calls for rain and I've factored it in and then it might drizzle but clear as a bell by halftime. I hear no rain and it's been total crap come game time. I just gave up on trying to factor weather in. Even if it does rain though points can be had with the increased chances of fumbles and defenders slipping so rain doesn't always mean low scoring. Besides it's me and a total I never expect to win these anyways.

[moodyt2]

everybody vote in my thread

[bigcat1]

mr. wall, i went with ball st +11 and the under for 1/4 each small bets, good luck tonight,

[UnderDog_Philip]

I'm with you on the over, I'm also playing playing w. michigan-10 also. GL this week.

[wal66]

Cat's, hate that we are on opposite sides of the total, if it were just me I would think your under was safe because I really am terrible with totals. Good luck all the same though.

Phillip, we might end up in the minority tonight but I like our number all the same.

[moodyt2]

Wal are you sticking with the over?

[wal66]

Yeah, I explained my thoughts about the weather. I have no choice but to stick with my play. I generally place my bet then post the play so I can never give out a stale line as to what I have.

[moodyt2]

Sounds great "wal the great"

[ImBettor]

First, as far as the juice is concerned, if you hit 1 middle, you could split 20 middles and come out even. This is what we mean by the maximum return for the minimum amount of risk.

Next, we never buy points. Buying points is like buying insurance in Black Jack. It is there for a reason, and that reason is to allow the house (or book) to make more money off of the player. Rarely does a half point determine a winner or loser in a play, and to consistantly give away 10-30% as some players in here do is rediculous. It is tough enough giving up the 10%. In Craps, the odds are a lot better, as they are in Blackjack and even some slots. IF you are that unsure about the wager, do not make it.

As far as the accuracy of our models is concerned, we are normally 1/2 to 1 point off the final line. Since we have a person who lives in Vegas and can wager at a moments notice for us, we normally find a number sometimes during the week at one of the Vegas books we use that will give us our middle. Now I want to stress the fact that this is a TEAM effort. All of us have different areas of expertese, if you will. Each of us is responsible for feeding the computer accurate information to generate accurate plays. We have one person who does nothing but read every post on every site to get a feeling of what Joe Pub is thinking. We have people who break down offenses and defenses of every team. We have others who are responsible for technical information, like angles and treands. I do not see how one person could do this successfully. It is one thing to wager middles. It is another to be successful. Remember, when lines are posted, hey project what the public will think is a fair line. Most of the time they are dead on in the colleges, and they are almost always dead on in the pros, because there are only a maximum of 16 games in the pros. But in the college ranks, where there are between 40-50 games or more a week, a few are going to get thru the cracks. Last week we had 4. This week we have 2. Never a lot. We have not been stuck with an open one sider this year. Last year when it happened, we just opted out and sacrificed the vig.

We noticed something ery interesting this year. We play "futures" to middle as well. There have been many games where the future line has been the same line as the gametime line. Many more than we are used to. This indicates that because of the current economic slump, Vegas is playing things much closer to the vest this year than in previous years. It got so bad in Vegas that Ballys closed their book (one of the best for horses) during the summer and had their guests wager at the Paris Book, their sister hotel joined at the wasit, so to speak. If it was this bad in Vegas, you can imagine what the offshore books are going through. They are smaller, have nowheres near the means to generate income, and can not easily recover from a big loss. They also have to offer "incentives" for people to join, which comes out of their pockets. Maybe this is why so many people in here are getting screwed by offshore books one way or another.

would you rather middle on integers (as opposed to .5's) because your chances of a push increase?

also, are there spots where you expect a middle and don't, like when the line moves only slightly. Say you get the line at 9.5 and it moves to 8.5. You are hardly ever middling here, right?


you've made a couple of phenomenal posts in this thread, BDQH. Thanks for your insight

[wal66]

I don't label games as Games of the Day, WEEK, Month or Year but if I did then this game for me would qualify even if it is a favorite.


Saturday November 28, 2009
1:30 PM
Central Florida @ UAB


Records:
Central Florida 7-4 (8-2ATS) 1-3 on the road
UAB 5-6 (5-6ATS) 3-1 at home

Trends:
Central Florida is 5-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in last 6 meetings
UAB is 7-3 ATS in last 10 conference games

Head to Head:
UAB won and covered last year on the road as a 8 point dog

Common Opponents:
Marshall 20 Central Florida 21
UAB 7 Marshall 21
Central Florida 49 Rice 7
Rice 24 UAB 44
Memphis 14 Central Florida 32
UAB 31 Memphis 21
Central Florida 14 East Carolina 19
UAB 21 East Carolina 37
Central Florida 19 Southern Miss 26
Southern Miss 17 UAB 30

Offense:
Central Florida averages 26 ppg on the road
UAB averages 28 ppg at home

Defense:
Central Florida allows an average of 20 ppg on the road
UAB allows an average of 32 ppg at home

My Take:
Every year it seems there is a team, sometimes a couple of teams that have been ATS cash cows on the season. Central Florida has been that this season going 8-2 ATS. That’s terrific but unfortunately I haven’t benefited from their success to this point on the season. So jumping on them this week is really going against the odds. They are just 1-3 on the road this season and that should be warning enough to stay away from this game or go with UAB. UAB in fact while having a losing season is actually 3-1 at home. So there is even more reason to either stay away or take UAB. UAB is also playing to become bowl eligible which adds to the appeal of taking UAB at home. Central Florida is already going bowling so motivation could be in question, with another win they might have to stay in the state of Florida but they could end up with a BCS opponent from the Big East in doing so. So with so many intangibles going against Central Florida how could I possibly be making a play on them? Honestly? I am trusting my program and the data I have looked at. I manipulated the numbers every way possible to see if there was any reason to stay away from this game. From a purely data approach there wasn’t any. True UAB statistically is better in scoring and total yards but Central Florida is better on defense in those same categories.
I have pushed the envelope the past couple of weeks going against my program at times and it has cost me several wins. This is a pure program and data play and I have as much confidence in this game as any I have researched all season.

Program:
Central Florida by 10 so from a value perspective we have plenty


Play:

Central Florida -2.5**** (I can’t get this game yet and the line might climb before I can but I will play this game and play it for 4 units at this number all the way to -7. So I am not concerned about the line.)

[wal66]

Ball St/Western Michigan over not surprisingly a loser to start the week. Maybe not a bad thing though.
0-1 for the week so far.

[LINE-crush-ER]

2:30 in the morning , sure its swept under the rug a little more than they are admitting
hes playing very good info /thread though

[lyon804]

Ball St/Western Michigan over not surprisingly a loser to start the week. Maybe not a bad thing though.
0-1 for the week so far.

Nice thread Wal! I was getting a nose bleed reading all the high altitude information you and that other guy have. Very interesting stuff. Can you do this for Basketball?

[sn00p]

hahah, EFF YOU WESTERN MICHIGAN REFS TRYING TO SLOW THE GAME DOWN SO they can score more.. ball state won anyways. oh what a tangle web we weev. especially when we dont want the refs to succeed. I am taking Texas A&M +21 thursday.

[jeccross]

I don't label games as Games of the Day, WEEK, Month or Year but if I did then this game for me would qualify even if it is a favorite.


Saturday November 28, 2009
1:30 PM
Central Florida @ UAB


Records:
Central Florida 7-4 (8-2ATS) 1-3 on the road
UAB 5-6 (5-6ATS) 3-1 at home

Trends:
Central Florida is 5-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in last 6 meetings
UAB is 7-3 ATS in last 10 conference games

Head to Head:
UAB won and covered last year on the road as a 8 point dog

Common Opponents:
Marshall 20 Central Florida 21
UAB 7 Marshall 21
Central Florida 49 Rice 7
Rice 24 UAB 44
Memphis 14 Central Florida 32
UAB 31 Memphis 21
Central Florida 14 East Carolina 19
UAB 21 East Carolina 37
Central Florida 19 Southern Miss 26
Southern Miss 17 UAB 30

Offense:
Central Florida averages 26 ppg on the road
UAB averages 28 ppg at home

Defense:
Central Florida allows an average of 20 ppg on the road
UAB allows an average of 32 ppg at home

My Take:
Every year it seems there is a team, sometimes a couple of teams that have been ATS cash cows on the season. Central Florida has been that this season going 8-2 ATS. That’s terrific but unfortunately I haven’t benefited from their success to this point on the season. So jumping on them this week is really going against the odds. They are just 1-3 on the road this season and that should be warning enough to stay away from this game or go with UAB. UAB in fact while having a losing season is actually 3-1 at home. So there is even more reason to either stay away or take UAB. UAB is also playing to become bowl eligible which adds to the appeal of taking UAB at home. Central Florida is already going bowling so motivation could be in question, with another win they might have to stay in the state of Florida but they could end up with a BCS opponent from the Big East in doing so. So with so many intangibles going against Central Florida how could I possibly be making a play on them? Honestly? I am trusting my program and the data I have looked at. I manipulated the numbers every way possible to see if there was any reason to stay away from this game. From a purely data approach there wasn’t any. True UAB statistically is better in scoring and total yards but Central Florida is better on defense in those same categories.
I have pushed the envelope the past couple of weeks going against my program at times and it has cost me several wins. This is a pure program and data play and I have as much confidence in this game as any I have researched all season.

Program:
Central Florida by 10 so from a value perspective we have plenty


Play:

Central Florida -2.5**** (I can’t get this game yet and the line might climb before I can but I will play this game and play it for 4 units at this number all the way to -7. So I am not concerned about the line.)

I bet this large to take a middle when it moved, might let it ride now...

[wal66]

Nice thread Wal! I was getting a nose bleed reading all the high altitude information you and that other guy have. Very interesting stuff. Can you do this for Basketball?

lyon you can middle basketball as well but to be honest with you I don't really know enough about the line opportuntities in basketball. I'm generally not involved in the basketball season long enough to pay attention to how much line movement there is. In fact I'm not one that practices middles I just understand the concept. Hopefully QH, will stop by and be able to give you more info.

[bigcat1]

mr wall, i took your play with central florida, you usually nail them when you feel so strong about it, just wandering how much you are wagering, that way if we loose i could be in the same boat...by the way i finally won one last night, with the under and the points,,,mr wall look forward to the rest of the pics this week, I am leaning toward nevada if it stays +14 or more, By the way got real luck last night my cats finally covered, how is the program going for the basketball...

[wal66]

Cats, nice to see you swept lastnight. I opened the week obviously with a loss but I think that might bode well in the long run. The past couple of weeks I started the week on fire but flamed out by the end of the weekend so I'll take a slow start and a great finish hopefully.

As for Centraal Florida. Personally I have it listed here as a 4 unit play for me. Unless something bad happenes between now and game time offline this will be my biggest wager of the season. I am confident but I tried to point out in the write-up there are still very real reasons that favor UAB here so don't have blind faith that I am right.

Not sure how many plays I will have this week. At one point yesterday I was thinking maybe Central Florida would be my only play but I am still working on capping more games. Some have promise but none are standing out. Our Round Table group will have plays and I may just play a couple of them and forego anymore personal plays.

[bigcat1]

LOL I NEVER GO ON BLIND FAITH, but i do trust you and your write ups, i feel you put the time in, and so do i, but its the differant angles that hopefully produce winners...i have noticed you starting to have quiet the following, i think its very polite you return all questions from members.