Wal's College Football Week #13

**wal66** · 11-22-09, 09:05 PM

Gentlemen, we have ourselves a rather nice card with plenty of value this week. There are several that you REALLY need to look ahead to see what's on tap for some games and you also need to make sure who is likely just going through the motions this week as well. That said though there are some great spots this week.

**Cougar Bait** · 11-22-09, 09:10 PM

Navy is already a great play. I don't know if there is any way I don't play that game.

**wal66** · 11-22-09, 09:49 PM

Ding Ding

**mmike032** · 11-22-09, 09:53 PM

GT -7
love this play

**LINE-crush-ER** · 11-23-09, 12:23 AM

Pitt
Alabama
Nevada
Marshall
SmU
Stanford
New Mexico
Kent State
Bowling Green
Akron
temple
South carolina
Missouri

Dont have time to do a lot with these games
so hopefully some of you agree with em
wal 66of these make your selections /picks or you agree with em
Getting out of town
Im stuck on nevada and alabama
but getting out of town (disney) be back the 5th
staying with mostly mac and wac this week
thanks man
If you could email me @ thanks with your opinions
shaneelrod@yahoo.com

**TheBetBuysDanK** · 11-23-09, 12:23 AM

GT.
UNC.
Zona.
Navy.
FSU.
Clemson.
UCLA.
Nebraska.

lets cash this bitch.

**LINE-crush-ER** · 11-23-09, 12:28 AM

Pitt
Alabama
Nevada
Marshall
SmU
Stanford
New Mexico
Kent State
Bowling Green
Akron
temple
South carolina
Missouri
navy
florida
forgot the above two on the list

**TheBetBuysDanK** · 11-23-09, 12:31 AM

no way florida beats fsu by 23. not in this Rivalry game. mickey andrews will have the d ready to at least hang on for 45 minutes. florida may win easy, but 23 is A LOT. Ima tease the shit (+33) out of that line

**LINE-crush-ER** · 11-23-09, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by TheBetBuysDanK

no way florida beats fsu by 23. not in this Rivalry game. mickey andrews will have the d ready to at least hang on for 45 minutes. florida may win easy, but 23 is A LOT. Ima tease the shit (+33) out of that line

I would love to drop this game
But I actually get a great preview of it
So I dont have to bet until game time
I feel that the acc is so much weaker
Gtech there best had problems beating sec worst MISS state and Vandy
but thats ok
Clemson plays South Carolina prior to FSU and FL
So ill get a preview
FSU has no defense
they ll have to score 20 to cover and 44 to keep it close
that part is a fact
if they can or cant will tell me if South Carolina woops clemson or is getting a spanking ,
I am hoping they are taking over clemson ,
I see this line coming way down ,

**LINE-crush-ER** · 11-23-09, 01:20 AM

33 should be a tease play for sure , ive gt atleast on other team to go with it New Mexico +53
thats 2
need one more for my tease probale Nevada + 21.5 or Alabama -2 well I like these 3 better than fsu right now
I am uncertain FSU can Score at all right now they just cant run the ball and you get killed in the sec when you cant run
you dont have to be able to pass in the SEC just be able to run
I see it similar to the Texas /Kansas game 51-20

so to get it right I like the tease I just dont live it but 33 points is something I need to jump on
Probable will be down a few if I dont
2-1 last week in top 3 picks UCONN , HAWAII ,AIR FORCE
so I get em wrong and being doing that lately a lot
so im not one to take advice from

**HawaiiFan** · 11-23-09, 02:39 AM

Navy is going to hang 1,000,000 pts on the weak Hawaii run D. Our QB is nothing to brag about either. If you watched the game last week against San Jose St., you'd be able to see why he's not picked to be our starting QB at the start of the year. Many missed opportunities. You are a 4th string QB for a reason. 7.5 is a very low number for a top ranked running team like Navy, trust me.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-23-09, 07:30 AM

Originally posted by HawaiiFan

Navy is going to hang 1,000,000 pts on the weak Hawaii run D. Our QB is nothing to brag about either. If you watched the game last week against San Jose St., you'd be able to see why he's not picked to be our starting QB at the start of the year. Many missed opportunities. You are a 4th string QB for a reason. 7.5 is a very low number for a top ranked running team like Navy, trust me.

You may be understating how many pts Navy is going to score. haha

I know you believe Hawaii is garbage, but whats been the key to the recent success?

**bigcat1** · 11-23-09, 08:11 AM

I JUST WANT TO know if your going to stay hott on your tuesday night pics, by your generated lines it looks like w. michigan will be your play, another rainy day in kentucky, by the way did you see the kentucky game, i know georgia not great, but first time kentucky beat georgia in athens in like 30 years, big win for us

**HedgeHog** · 11-23-09, 08:33 AM

Thanks for the #s, Wal. Some good underdog value to be found this week.

**wal66** · 11-23-09, 09:01 AM

Conference Standings

ACC
Atlantic
Clemson 8-3 (6-2)
Boston College 7-4 (4-3)
Coastal
Georgia Tech 10-1 (7-1)
Virginia Tech 8-3 (5-2)

Big 12
North
Nebraska 8-3 (5-2)
Kansas St 6-6 (4-4)
South
Texas 11-0 (7-0)
Oklahoma St 9-2 (6-1)

Big East
Cincinnati 10-0 (6-0)
Pittsburgh 9-1 (5-0)

Big Ten
Ohio St 10-2 (6-1)
Iowa 10-2 (5-2)

Conference USA
East
East Carolina 7-4 (6-1)
Central Florida 7-4 (5-2)
West
Houston 9-2 (5-2)
SMU 6-5 (5-2)

IndependentsNavy 8-3 (1-0)

MAC
East
Temple 9-2 (7-0)
Ohio 8-3 (6-1)
West
Central Michigan 9-2 (7-0)
Northern Illinois 7-4 (5-2)

Mountain West
TCU 11-0 (7-0)
BYU 9-2 (6-1)
Utah 9-2 (6-1)

Pac-10
Oregon 9-2 (7-1)
Oregon St 8-3 (6-2)

SEC
East
Florida 11-0 (8-0)
Georgia 6-5 (4-4)
Kentucky 7-4 (3-4)
West
Alabama 11-0 (7-0)
LSU 8-3 (4-3)
Ole Miss 8-3 (4-3)

Sun Belt
Troy 8-3 (7-0)
Middle Tennessee St 8-3 (6-1)

WAC
Nevada 8-3 (7-0)
Boise St 11-0 (6-0)

Even though this in many situations is Rivalry Week there is stil a lot at stake for some of these teams. While most of the conference match ups are set there are still a couple yet to be decided. Also there are some teams currently sitting in 3rd place and can move up to take 2nd with a win. Kentucky moves ahead of Georgia with a win by virtue of head to head. Also we have a playoff game in the MAC this week between Temple and Ohio U. Ohio currently sits in 2nd in the East but they play Temple this weekend and the winner will play Central Michigan for the Conference Title. So even though there appears to be some soft situations be sure to look to see which games matter. Even ones where the conferences are decided for the leaders there is still bowl implications at stake for others.

**wal66** · 11-23-09, 09:05 AM

I'll be at The Swamp Saturday so I will have everything in by Friday if not sooner. Plenty of Holiday time to get everything up early. Also the Round Table guys will be doing that agins this week. Houlihan's will be posting that thread when the 4 of us have everything completed.

**wal66** · 11-23-09, 09:11 AM

Crusher, If any of your games line up with mine I will shoot you an email. Heck I'll send you my plays as well as the Round Table plays regardless if they line up or not.

QH, never a problem guy. Always enjoy contributing what I can to the forum.

HawaiiFan, without looking at anything yet I tend to agree here. Initial problem is why this line is set so low ( in my opinion )? Navy should in fact not have too much trouble owning the clock and keep the chains moving. Looks too easy so we SHOULD make sure to look at this from every angle.

Cat's truly a HUGE win for Kentucky. They set themselves up to take 2nd place in the East if they can beat Tennesse this weekend. I mean it's not impossible even if unlikely. Would hear some cat's ROAR if they pull it off though.

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-23-09, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by wal66

From some of the comments I’ve gotten some of you are taking my program results and doing better with them than I have lately. I want to caution you this week though. These results DO NOT take into consideration teams that are playing their last regular season game but have Conference Championship games next week. Keep this in mind as it could effect how aggressively they close out or even approach some of these games.

Western Michigan -13 10.5
Texas -18.5 21
Boise St -15.5 16
Rutgers -7 5
Bowling Green -9.5 8.5
Temple -5 4
Pittsburgh -3.5 PK
Akron -13 14.5
Central Michigan -10 10
Cincinnati -26 16.5
Wyoming -.5 1
Buffalo -1 1.5
Nebraska -13.5 8
Tulsa -8.5 18
Alabama -14.5 13
Central Florida -7 3
Arizona -10 3.5
San Jose St -3 13
USC -7.5 13
UConn -10.5 15
Florida -15 21
Miami -5.5 7
Georgia Tech -12 9.5
Kentucky -2 +3
Boston College -13 6.5
Wake Forest -2 4
East Carolina -4 2.5
North Carolina -13.5 4
Oklahoma St -1 OFF
Texas Tech -13 21.5
Houston -24.5 24
Virginia Tech -17 13
Washington -16.5 26
Troy -12.5 10
Ole Miss -7.5 7
Arkansas St -7 9
Missouri -3.5 4.5
Midd Tenn St -4 4
Clemson -7.5 pk
TCU -40 42
SMU -15.5 17.5
Marshall -10 3
Florida Int -13.5 No Game
Idaho -7.5 3
Utah -1 +7.5
Stanford -7 10
LSU -4 6
UNLV -3.5 3
Navy -16.5

9.5

I listed the openers in Vegas. As you can see, there are a ton of differences between your lines and their openers. A + indicates that the team you picked to be a favorite is actually a dog, like Utah. It looks like you and Vegas have some major differences this week. You should try andkeep track of how accurate your spicks were compared to Vegas's picks. The only games we have taken so far is Clemson as a pick against South Carolina, hoping that Clemson goes up to a 3.5 or higher favorite, and North Texas +9 over Arkansas State, looking for a big drop in this line.

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-23-09, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by TheBetBuysDanK

no way florida beats fsu by 23. not in this Rivalry game. mickey andrews will have the d ready to at least hang on for 45 minutes. florida may win easy, but 23 is A LOT. Ima tease the shit (+33) out of that line

Last year, Florida beat Flroida State by 30 at Florida State. They can beat them by 50 if they choose to this year. The only thing that may save Bowden form total humilation is that Florida plays Alabama next week and Meyer will not want to risk injury to any of his star players after the game is settled, which should be by half time. Florida State was much better last year than they are this year. Pass on this game.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-23-09, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Last year, Florida beat Flroida State by 30 at Florida State. They can beat them by 50 if they choose to this year. The only thing that may save Bowden form total humilation is that Florida plays Alabama next week and Meyer will not want to risk injury to any of his star players after the game is settled, which should be by half time. Florida State was much better last year than they are this year. Pass on this game.

E.J Manuel is starting also for FSU. His talent is superior, but raw. He is a turnover machine, and will not be able to move the ball like Ponder was throwing the ball. FSU's D is still one of the worst in the nation. Maybe not talent wise, but execution/scheme its ugly.

**wal66** · 11-23-09, 11:57 AM

Well I know that I'll be at this game and not on this game. If this game were being played any other weekend than the weekend before the SEC Championship I would have a play here but not in this spot. I will say this though. If and I mean IF Florida loses focus here and gets caught looking ahead FSU can and will score some points and the total if reasonable becomes a play.

**TheBetBuysDanK** · 11-23-09, 12:00 PM

yeah, I'm not putting too much on the noles, but i feel with the look ahead spot and the focus on the game they'll be able to cover. EJ manuel is a future superstar in the jimbo fisher offense. 44-28 final score

I've never placed so many bets early in the week, but the released lines have a lot of value, and see some of the chalk climbing fast.

**BECHunter** · 11-23-09, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by TheBetBuysDanK

yeah, I'm not putting too much on the noles, but i feel with the look ahead spot and the focus on the game they'll be able to cover. EJ manuel is a future superstar in the jimbo fisher offense. 44-28 final score

I've never placed so many bets early in the week, but the released lines have a lot of value, and see some of the chalk climbing fast.

I do not see FSU putting 28 up on UF's defense. I'll leave this one alone.

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-23-09, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by TheBetBuysDanK

yeah, I'm not putting too much on the noles, but i feel with the look ahead spot and the focus on the game they'll be able to cover. EJ manuel is a future superstar in the jimbo fisher offense. 44-28 final score

I've never placed so many bets early in the week, but the released lines have a lot of value, and see some of the chalk climbing fast.

I guess you are expecting a lot of line movement. We are not. There will be the usual amout of movement, but this time of year, when most of the gambers are tapped out or waiting for the bowl season, you do not see the type of movement that you see earlier in the year. We are waiting for the totals to come out. We do not see the value that you do, but that means nothing. We took two lead lines that we hope to middle. We really lucked out last week hitting two of our four middles. Good luck to you this week.

**wal66** · 11-23-09, 01:31 PM

QH, it's never been a strategy I've ever ventured into but I am curious. I understand the priciples involved playing middles but how much of a difference does your group look for to qualify? Also, what determines a game worthy of trying to middle and just a game where the line while offering a middle doesn't offer the proper oppertunity. For instance, Team-A opens at -5.5 but during the week star player is injured in practice and you see the line go off the board and then when it comes back it's at -3. By the nature of the process you just gained very good middle value in the number but lost practical value on the situation. I'm just curious to learn. As I have repeatedly mentioned I am purely recreational but with most things I involve myself with I like to learn what I can.

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-23-09, 02:17 PM

Here is how we determine a good middle. First, we have to see the lead lines. We have already assigned a line to each game, just as you do. When the lead comes out, we have someone ready to roll. We look for key numbers, such as 3, 4, 7, 10, and 14. We try to play our middles as early as possible, incase of injuries, like the example you just mentioned. The philosophy behind middles is the make the maximum amount of money with the minimum amount of risk. When you middle, three good things can happen. Both teams (A and B) can cover. One team can cover and the other tie (Team A covers and team B ties, or Team A ties and team B covers). The worst that can happen is that you split, and have lost some vig. If you middle for $100.00 on each team, you wager a total of $220.00. If you hit it, you win a total of $420.00 for a $200.00 profit. If you get a win and a push, you collect $210.00 on the winning ticket and push the tie, giving you a $100.00 profit. Worse case scenario is that you split, and lose $10.00 in vig. If you hit one middle, you can split 19 others, and still have a profit. We have done very well on middles this year. We figure that as of now, we have made an extra 50% by middling. In all honesty, this is the best we have ever done. This season may be out best. We hitting at 60%, and a lot of that is because of successful middle.

The key here is to have accurate numbers BEFORE the lines come out. You must have the ability to accurately predict where the line will end up at game time. This is absolutely critical, because if you wager on the lead, and the line goes the other way, you are basically stuck with a wager that you may not want. Another thing we do, but not very often, is play a side middle against a money line middle. We adjust the amount of our wager to guarantee a small profit even if we split. The trick to that is to find a game where the lines may swing to favor a team after they opened up as a dog. Again, accurate numbers are critical. We spent more money than you want to know refining our computer. We feed it with over 1500 angles and trends involving college teams, plus our stregnths and weaknesses for each position on each team, plus gambler trends to try and outguess the LVSC, which does the exact same thing.

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-23-09, 02:19 PM

That should be hitting at 69%, not 60%.

**bigcat1** · 11-23-09, 02:21 PM

ok guys i am trying to follow you but i am just a dumb redneck hill billy from kentucky, give me a couple of examples, using some real teams and real lines, i would appreciate it thanks for your time

**wal66** · 11-23-09, 02:52 PM

I will try Cat's but I only practice this and have never actually wagered on these.

Temple opened at -2.5 this week. I personally have the line at 5. So if I bought early as QH's group did (which from what I am told I couldn't but I can't get into that) I own Temple at -2.5. Now if things go according to plan this week and the line goes up as it has already started too then we are set for action. Not likely this line will rise to more than 4-4.5 so even though it wouldn't have crossed the line I predicted it still created some value here to now wager on Ohio. Basically I have Temple -2.5 and over. I have Ohio U at -4.5 and under. If this game ends at 3 or 4 I win both Temple side and Ohio U side. If Temple wins by 5 or more I split losing the juice. If the line were to end on an even number that brings ties into play were it lands on the final number for a tie one way and win the other. There is a lot of math involved to explain if you have value trying the middle or not but after 10 fingers and toes I start getting fuzzy.

The example above may not be very detailed but I am not very detailed on the process just the gist.

**bigcat1** · 11-23-09, 03:07 PM

thank you for your answer, i am starting to see, to quote you its still fuzy, but if you do it on a game tell me the game and the lines, i kinda see where they are coming from by (middling)

**wal66** · 11-23-09, 04:56 PM

Cat's you won't see me doing this. It's above the recreational level. You have to severely limit your plays or have a much larger bankroll. You need an extremely intuative perception of how lines will move. Truly playing middles the proper way is for the professionals in my opinion.

**wal66** · 11-23-09, 05:20 PM

Big East Title

Should Pittsburgh win Saturday to finish tied with Cincinnati at 7-0 in the conference Cincinnati still wins the BCS birth due to the tie breaker situation. In the Big East first tie breaker goes to head to head but these teams did not play each other. In the event teams are still ties according to Big East rules it the title goes to the team with the higher BCS ranking. So while Saturdays game plays no factor in the Cincinnati representing the Big East in a BCS bowl game it is their final oppoortunity to improve their overall BCS ranking.

**mmike032** · 11-23-09, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by bigcat1

thank you for your answer, i am starting to see, to quote you its still fuzy, but if you do it on a game tell me the game and the lines, i kinda see where they are coming from by (middling)

Fla/LSU game was an example.
line moved from 7 to 10 and back to 7 I believe.

**wal66** · 11-23-09, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Big East Title

Should Pittsburgh win Saturday to finish tied with Cincinnati at 7-0 in the conference Cincinnati still wins the BCS birth due to the tie breaker situation. In the Big East first tie breaker goes to head to head but these teams did not play each other. In the event teams are still ties according to Big East rules it the title goes to the team with the higher BCS ranking. So while Saturdays game plays no factor in the Cincinnati representing the Big East in a BCS bowl game it is their final oppoortunity to improve their overall BCS ranking.

Ignore this post. December 5th Cincy and Pitt play. So Pitt can still get the BCS nod. Which also brings the look ahead spot into play here for Pitt.