Cat's I like interation between posters. If someone takes the time to read something in my thread and has a question I feel obligated as well as obligded to respond. Hopefully dialogue between us will spark something that may have been ommitted or overlooked. Possibly myself or someone else reading the thread can learn something or at least view another perspective. I mean that is what this whole thing should be about. true we have varying types of posters. Some are attention grabbing grandstanders and some are serious. Some are very logical and others are trendy. Some are shy but still very knowledgable. Some have a wealth of information and others are just here to learn. So taking time out to respond to others is just being a part and working part of our lil community here at SBR. Plus I'm at work and I gotta kill time doing something.
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lyon, I am working on one. the problem in basketball is that there are so many more games to deal with. i am currently working on trying to take what I use in football and make some obvious adjustment but convert to basketball. I will primarily focus on Saturday games though since that will be the day with the heaviest activity. I'm playing around with points in the SBR Sportsbook right now but hopefully by conference time I'll have something.Comment -
Thanks Wal!
A more techical question.... Are you a computer programmer? Are have you bought a program that does what you want?Also,are you strictly a data,stats, player or is there other things. You don't have to tell me what they are of course if you don't like, but maybe say.. Yea, there is other paramaters of meeting certain criteria for me before I play a game. Thanks again!Comment -
lyon, I can't even upload a stupid video to the web without asking someone here to help me so no I'm far from a programmer. I obviously won't devulge everything that goes into my program but I can say because it's only fair to say that my football program STARTS with the Sargin rating. That's it's base. From there I have my own ingredients that I add. The Sargins and my own formula is what I use to create my lines on games. I use that as a filter to look for my advantages. From that point it's normal good old fashion handicapping and luck. I don't credit myself with being savy in technological terms because I'm not. I don't take credit for being able to create my own initial ratings for teams because I can't. What I have compiled works for me. A real programmer or model developer would LAUGH at mine and consider it less than amateurish at best.Comment -
you know mr wall (no disrespect but you give your self no credit) you do a great job, your prob one of the best cappers on here, i am not just saying that i have followed you all year,
Truthfully i wouldn't be up as much as i am with out ya
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We try to avoid spots where the line is expected to move just slightly, unless it involves middling 3 or 7. If, in your example, there was a line at 9.5, we would not middle that unless we were very sure that the line would climb to over 10.5 or drop to 6.5. Sometimes we are wrong, and then we just eat the vig. I once asked a casino general manager why he allows us to play middles for such a large sum of money. He said that the money we may win is still less than the money generated by major swings in the line. When I stopped and thought about what he had said, I knew he was right. Just look at all the posts in here when there is a major line swing, and these sites represent a samll percentage of the people who wager on football. Now it is virtually impossible for an offshore book to do this because none of them come close to haveing enough money to pay off a huge middle winner. Look at the percentage of money wagered at the over 600 offshore books compared to the 85 or so books in Vegas.Comment -
Thanks Wal!! I have to agree with what bigcat below says. I think you have some talent. Well ahead of the game on the average player. You seem way sharper than most. I appreciate your time and for your response and wish you all the best on your upcoming plays.
I see you like Central Florida -2.5 I actually made a couple dollars on them this past Saturday when they were -22. It was a blowout winner 48-0. Some of the easiest dollars I has made. I will take Central Florida too this Saturday. They will actually be playing about 30 minutes from me at Legion Field in Birmingham,Al.Comment -
I appreciate the consideration of ability Cat's but I make way too many mistakes. i still go degenerate at times. I am still fighting a never ending battle with wanting to get all crazy and just blow it all on a huge move.
I have been fortunate with some selective plays but I am in awe of those cappers that can see the play that no-one else sees or can make a call on an outright winner that everyone else asumes has no shot.
I am still learning. You want to get some great info spend some time with guys like MonkeyFocker and Justin7. It's really technical stuff and I don't understand it but anyone that has a mind for such mathematical type stuff will gain an enormous amount of knowledge. You want someone who is consistant pay attention to G's. Even though he does a different style buying more than a 1/2 point and playing a lot of negative moneylines he is a proven winner and regardless if you are minimizing your returns or not as long as you are banking that's all that really matters. Knowledge of the environment and old school techniques BigDaddyQH. I know people give him crap at times and even though GH sometimes types like he's annoid with fellow posters you can tell he does have a good knowledge and if he were truly annoid he wouldn't take the time to respond and offer advice.
I guess what I am saying Cat's is there are so many people here at SBR that really contribute, this is why I down play credit or avoid it.Comment -
i knew you would say something like that, but let me tell you where your better, or as good as those guys you mentioned..i also read bigdaddy statements in the forum does a super job too. But he likes to argue which most of the time he is correct, (just no nead in it) but about you..your totally honest when you say something you can tell its your honest truthfull choice, people can tell that you try not to lead them wrong, ITS YOUR HUMBLENESS that people pick up on.
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Cat's you're good for the spirits bro. We need more members here to stand up and express positive comments on posters. Even the most modest of people get a good feeling from knowing someone acknowledges the type of person they are. I take much more pride in trying to be a good person than I ever will in attempting to be a good capper. So I do seriously appreciate the human aspects of your recognition.
My mom would be so proud.Comment -
I wll tell you why I like a lot of people who post in this particular thread. They ask questions. They want to learn. They do not talk about rediculous "Games of the Month, Year, Decade, etc..." They do not talk about "Locks" because anyone who has been around long enough in this game knows that there is no such thing as a "Lock". Too many people want you to think that they know what they are doing. Last night was a perfect example. People were so sure that Western Michigan was going to cover that they put their best tout act in their threads. They ranted and raved about how it was a sure thing that Western Michigan and the over covered. Well, to the suprise of few, they lost. So the wanna-be touts blamed everything except the one person to blame, that being themselves. The people in this thread make their wagers and state their reasons why. They ask questions. They give opinions. They win. They lose. All part of the game, minus the tout act.
As some of you know, I have been in this business for over 45 years. I have seen gaming evolve from the simple one armed bandit and the occasionally wager on a big football game, to what it has become today. I have spent more time in Vegas than most of you have spent in wagering forums. My relaitves have run casinos, sports books, and other gaming activities that were, shall we say, a bit more shady? I have been fortunate to meet some of the best in this business. I learned the gaming business from the casino's and book's point of view. With all that experience, I still always actively look to improve. I always look for a better way of playing. The people in this thread do the same. Wal and all the others who post in this thread deserve to be commended. They wager. They win. They lose. But most importantly, they always want to learn.Comment -
QH, I hope my threads always maintain that type of environment. I am greatful to everyone that takes the time to ask a question or give an answer. We are all out to make a profit that is true, but if we can learn something along the way then it makes the money nice but the experience lasting.Comment -
BiggydaddyQh, I agree with what you are saying and you are a valuable resource to all of us. Thanks for you help and insight. You have been in the game longer than I have been alive, so you obviously have forgotten more than I know. Thanks for sharing some tips and knowledge about the game. Middling, is above my head so to speak. I understand the concept, but rarely employ it. I have gotten lucky middling games in the past... For instance. Let's say I have the under of 56 for the game and the teams score only 17 for the first half. Second half total is 24 and I take the over of 24 for the second half. I have a 14 point window here to hit a middle. Sometimes it works and sometimes it don't. I also try to middle the sides on occasion at the half. When I hit the middle it is sweet as hell. Almost better than anything else I can imagine. Makes me feel like a sharp or wise guy. However, I know I am not.
Bigdaddy, what's your opinion on this form of middling? I don't do it often and haven't kept records of it. Do you ever do this or would you suggest it. Thanks again!Comment -
We have not played that type of middle to be honest, so any opinion I give is strictly an opinion. If you hd an under of 56, and only 17 points were scored, 30 points would have to be scored for you to lose, and 29 for a push. So it appears that you are giving up a 29 point cushion for a 14 point middle, which is not real good. I would stick with the big cushion that I have at half time, unless there is some circumstance that leads you to believe that the second half will be totally opposite. What you may consider doing is hedging you wager. It would be possible to win both that way. If you wagered, say $100.00 on the total, you may want to lay $50.00 on the 2nd half over. That way you have cut your losses to $50.00 max, but could win $50.00, $100.00, or $150.00. That may be the safer play.Comment -
thanks for the reply BDComment -
I really have debated all week if I wanted to make any additional plays this weekend. The problem for me is purely ego driven to not post them. I wanted to protect my percentage. Even if I were to lose the Central Florida play I would still be guaranteed of a 60% regular season record. That goal is very important for pride reasons.
Like I said I have battled with this all week. Ultimately I decided playing scared is not what I did last season and it’s not what I have done this season either. I have several games that have value both from a program perspective as well as research. So I am gonna play the games I have here and if it’s a bad weekend then I could still make it back up to the 60% mark with the final week next week.
Temple: Ohio U has really played well down the stretch. They are slightly better from a defensive perspective against common opponents but not on the overall season. Temple has the edge in scoring both against common opponents and regular season. I have no illusions that this will be an easy win for Temple. As a matter of fact Ohio has a very real shot here, they are at home after all. I’m trusting the program and the research though and going with Temple.
Bowling Green: There really isn’t anything here to play for. Even with a 7th win Bowling Green in all likelihood still has no shot at a bowl game. The top 3 in this conference are Ohio, Temple and Central Michigan. So pride is basically all that is on the line. Home field, and a defensive edge goes to Bowling Green. Scoring on offense is in favor of Toledo. The Program liked Bowling Green by 9.5 and the line sits at 7.5 now. I’ll take my chances here and trust the program
I really liked Navy, East Carolina and Troy but I have lost a lot of value on all 3. While the current line is still under what my program suggest each should be favored by I want some edge back. For that reason I am doing a 3 –point teaser using these teams.
Plays:
Temple -2.5*
Bowling Green -7.5
East Carolina-2.5/Troy -7/Navy -6.5*Comment -
The only reason I got off of Temple is Bernard Pierce is doubtful. The nation's 3rd leading rusher being out is a big deal, for me. Good luck with your plays Wal
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To be honest guys this game could be a nailbiter all the way down the line. Both teams are very capable. Both are playingfor the same thing here. Winner gets Central Michigan for the championship. A lot on the line I'm certainly not selling Ohio short I just have a gut feeling Temple gets it done.
Either way it comes out tomorrow I like Central Michigan to win the MAC.Last edited by wal66; 11-26-09, 11:21 PM.Comment -
Good luck today, wal..
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Thank odus. There are easier games on the board but I saw something with Central Florida numbers I really liked. Hope I see at the end of the game what I saw prior.Comment -
Change my luck Wal...had a bad day yesterday...find a Cougar and tell her to say my name out loud 3 times or something.Comment -
Coug's, if I were to give you several clips could you slice them together as one video? I have bought all this softwars that "does it for you" but I have proven to be a bigger idiot than the developers considered when they made the claims.Comment -
You could try. I have no idea. I've never done that. I'll put an hour into it for you. If I haven't figured it out after that, then I'll have to give up.Comment -
any other strong leans?? thanx and BOLComment -
mr wall, no plays for you today, besides central florida, i am on the wagon, also took ole miss -8, and navy -9.5, should have played the rutgers/louisville game yesterday, easiest win i had all year...but anyways good luck today, my only nfl pics is the colts -3.5, figured ride them why i can, what you doing on monday night football, leaning towards the pats moneyline...not unless you talk me out of itComment -
On a side note, their is alot of people on here on the weekends, it cracks me up their threads, locks and gurantees, must not gamble long, no such thing..talk to ya monday, my 1/2 day overComment -
GL today Wal and have fun at the SwampComment -
Wal - Almost forget your Central Florida -3.5. Go with you and your system. Thanks and GL on your best one of the season.
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one last question for you middlers,
say you bet a game at +9 expecting it to move to +4ish. If it only moved to, say, +8, do you still bet that game at +8. What is the point where the vig is just too much to take? 1 point? 2 points?Comment -
34-27 UCF easy. Thanks again Wal
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Good job Wal. I had a thread going about it in-game. Didn't get your 10, but we didn't need that 10 
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