Nebraska +3.5
Is Nebraska for real? That's the question people have been asking all week. They have faced two Sun Belt opponents at home and this week go on the road to play a tough Virginia Tech squad on the road. I believe they have the defense, special teams and balance on offense to keep this game close for four quarters.
Nebraska QB Zach Lee (73.7% comp., 6 TD/1 TD) has played extremely well the first two games of the season, running the offense with great efficiency and making excellent decisions. Veteran receivers Mike McNeil (8 rec., 13.5 ypr., 2 TD) and Menelik Holt (8 rec., 10.6 ypr., 1 TD) lead the Nebraska receiving corps. RB Roy Helu Jr. (212 yds., 7.1 ypc., 3 TD, 5 rec., 9.4 ypr.) is one of the better all-around backs in the Big 12 and should play a key role in this game. Nebraska's balance on offense will allow them to move the football against Virginia Tech's defense, who will be without shutdown CB Stephan Virgil. Expect Nebraska to neutralize the Virginia Tech pass rush with WR screens and screen passes to the RB's. Virginia Tech's defense is at the bottom of the country in rush defense, and while I realize it's only been two weeks giving up 5.0 yards per carry to a less than stellar Marshall squad leads me to believe Nebraska can put some points up in this game.
Nebraska will have to center their attention around the Virginia Tech running game, as freshman RB's Ryan Williams (235 yds., 8.1 ypc., 5 TD) and David Wilson (165 yds., 13.8 ypc., 1 TD) have started the season well. The edge Nebraska should have defensively in this game should be against Virginia Tech's struggling passing game. At the beginning of the year I was hopeful that QB Tyrod Taylor (50% comp., 2 TD/1 INT) would have improved upon his passing but I have yet to see it. Also, he seems more hesitant to scramble and make plays with his legs. Nebraska's defense doesn't have to be perfect against the run in this game, they should be able to contain the Virginia Tech running game and put Taylor and company in some third and long situations.
If Bo Pelini's Nebraska special teams unit can match Frank Beamer's special teams unit, this should be anyone's ballgame. It's always a difficult proposition playing in Blacksburg, but Nebraska should be up to the task. I'll take Nebraska and the points in this game.
Boston College +7
This B.C. squad came into the season underrated and they appear to still be heading into this week's game against Clemson. I actually think it was a positive this offseason with Jeff Jagodzinski was fired for interviewing for an NFL job and they named longtime defenisive coordinator Frank Spaziani head coach. Spaziani's team will have it's hands full with some of Clemson's playmakers, but recently history between these two teams along with match-ups lead me to believe this should be another close game.
Redshirt freshman Justin Tuggle (52.9% comp., 3 TD/ 0 INT) appears to be B.C. most complete QB and I liked what I saw from him in last week's game vs. Kent State. He is mobile, has a strong arm and the ball comes out of his hand nicely. B.C. will also use former minor league baseball player David Shinskie (61.5% comp., 2 TD/ 1 INT) at quarterback. Shinskie is more of the drop-back passer although it appears he doesn't have as good of a grasp of the offense as Tuggle does. Both quarterbacks will be facing a strong defensive front of Clemson and will need to make good decisions while taking care of the football. B.C. has one of the more underrated RB's in the ACC in sophomore Montel Harris (181 yds., 5.3 ypc., 3 TD). B.C. also has two other talented young running backs in Josh Haden (75 yds., 3.9 ypc., 1 TD) and Rolandan Finch (90 yds., 6.9 ypc., 1 TD). While they are a young group, B.C. offense should have some success moving the football against Clemson's defense.
B.C. year in and year out produces top notch defenses and while they lost some key players off of a talented group from last year's team they bring back a nucleus of players who have a good amount of experience in playing defense in the ACC. What I have noticed about Clemson on offense is that most of their touchdowns in the first two games have come from big plays. This obviously shows the potential for them to make big plays, but it also leads me to believe that if you make Clemson earn it down the field they are going to have a tougher time generating points against a quality defensive unit like B.C.'s. Most of the attention will be paid to RB/KR C.J. Spiller (99 yds., 4.1 ypc., 4 rec., 17.3 ypr., 1 TD). WR Jacoby Ford (8 rec., 22.4 ypr., 2 TD) also has big play capability and freshman QB Willie Parker (47.1 % comp., 5 TD/2 INT) has played well thus far. B.C. will need to play sound defense against the run and make sure they keep plays in front of them in the secondary, two tasks which I feel they are capable of.
B.C. usually has good special teams units and former walk-on kicker Steve Aponavicius is solid and play a big role in the kicking game. B.C. will also have to be good in their kick-off coverage and punt coverage. If they can do so they should be able to make this anyone's ballgame. I'll take B.C. and the points here.
Tulsa +15.5
Todd Graham's scrappy Tulsa squad rolls into Norman this week to face a Sam Bradford and Germain Gresham-less Oklahoma squad in a game that could be filled with fireworks. It is also a game that I see Tulsa being more motivated for as most of their players probably weren't recruited by OU and the Tulsa players will be out to prove something come Saturday.
Tulsa QB G.J. Kinne (67.3% comp., 5 TD/ 0 INT), a Texas transfer, is a big athletic QB who appears to have a good grasp on Graham's spread option offense, which was tweeked for the better last year by former offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. Kinne has plenty of skilled playmakers to distribute the ball to and is aided by a terrific ground attack. FB Charles Clay (51 yds., 5.1 ypc., 2 TD) gets the tough yards between the tackles and WR Damaris Johnson (59 yds., 8.4 ypc., 3 rec., 20 ypr.) is their big play guy running the football and also through the air. Tulsa also has three solid WR's in Slick Shelley (9 rec., 14.8 ypr., 2 TD), Trae Johnson (5 rec., 15.4 ypr., 3 TD) and A.J. Whitmore (9 rec., 9.0 ypr.). Tulsa may have problems running the football early vs. a stout Oklahoma defensive front, but I believe Graham will let the passing game open up the running game.
Where I believe Tulsa has a better chance of having success than most people think will be with their defense against Oklahoma's offense. I can't stress how big it is for the Oklahoma offensive unit to be without QB Sam Bradford and TE Germain Gresham, who were both regarded by many around the country to be the best players in their respecitve positions in the entire nation. You just don't lose two great players like this without losing some fire power with your offense. While QB Landry Jones has gained some experience since the BYU game (although I'm not certain Idaho State was a true test), he just didn't have the arm strength, pocket prescense or ability to read the defense that Bradford does. Look for Oklahoma to feed the ball to RB's DeMarco Murray (159 yds., 7.2 ypc., 2 TD) and Chris Brown (124 yds., 5.0 ypc., 1 TD) which should allow Oklahoma to move the football, but they will have to earn their drives. When Landry does go to throw it's very evident his main target will be WR Ryan Broyles (11 rec., 16.5 ypr., 4 TD).
This is a match-up I see very similiar to last week's game between Houston and Oklahoma State, in that Tulsa much like Houston, has the motivation and firepower to keep up with a nationally ranked opponent who isn't yet at full strength. Going against Oklahoma in Norman is never an easy feat, but I feel Tulsa is ready for the challenge. Tulsa and the points is the play for me in this one.
Cincinnati +1.5
As a personal rule, anytime I can get a Brian Kelly coached football team with a "+" sign by their name I have to take a serious look at the game. While I think that Oregon State will be a worthy opponent and respect their home field greatly, I think Cincinnati could create some match-up issues this weekend that will allow them to escape Corvalis with a win.
Cincinnati QB Tony Pike (77.2% comp., 6 TD/ 1 INT) is playing as well as any quarterback in the entire country right now, and he will need to continue to do so on Saturday afternoon for his team to have a chance. In addition to Pike throwing the ball well and making excellent decisions he has a plethera of playmaking pass catchers to distribute the ball to. WR/KR Mardy Gilyard (14 rec., 14.3 ypr., 3 TD), famous for his hugging of a young boy after he ran into the boy on a play during a Thursday night game last year, is fresh off an 81 catch season from last year and is one of the more dangeroud kick returners in the country. D.J. Woods (7 rec., 13.0 ypr.) and Marcus Barnett (3 rec., 11.7 ypr., 1 TD) are veterans who know how to help move the chains. Cincinnati has also had more success running the football this year which should take some of the heat off Pike come Saturday. RB's Jacob Ramsey (142 yds., 9.5 ypc.) and Isaiah Pead (92 yds., 4.8 ypc., 1 TD) have both run well this early season and also do a good job catching the ball out of the backfield. While I think that Oregon State is a well-coached defensive unit, and has a good front seven, I do think that Cincinnati has several players to match up with and that they can expose OSU's secondary.
Watching last week's game vs. UNLV it's apparent to me that OSU head coach Mike Riley isn't afraid to use his two horses, RB Jacquizz Rodgers (269 yds., 6.4 ypc., 4 TD, 14 rec., 6.9 ypr.) and WR James Rodgers (8 rec., 17.9 ypr., 2 TD, 39 yds., 7.8 ypc.). The Rodgers brothers do it all, and when I say that I truly mean it. Right now these two players are accounting for over 75% of the team's total offense. I noticed last week that Jacquizz touched the ball on almost every play in the first half and that the UNLV defense hit him pretty hard. It was stated that he didn't participate in practice and I'm not sure that he heads into this game 100%. In the event that both he and his brother are at full strength I think having to focus their efforts on these two players will make game planning a little easier for Kelly and crew. While OSU QB Sean Canfield (78.6%, 3 TD/ 0 INT) has good numbers thus far he doesn't scare me as much as Lyle Moevao (still currently injured does) in a close game.
Both teams should play good in the special teams game and both teams will be well coached. I think an underrated Cincinnati defense unit can keep OSU's offense in check enough to let their offense expose the OSU secondary and escape Corvalis with a hard fought victory. Cincinnati and the points is my choice in this one.
Navy +7
I have to admit that I was dead wrong about Navy when studying them in the off season. I had them pegged as a program that was going to be down from the last couple of years, but after watching them the last two weeks I think they have the balance on offense and enough strength on defense that they can make a game of it with Pitt this weekend.
Navy QB Ricky Dobbs (66.7% comp., 2 TD/ 1 INT, 130 yds., 3.0 ypc., 4 TD) is a special player who makes excellent decisions when running the triple option and also adds a true passing threat to the Navy offense. I've also been impressed with A back Marcus Curry (138 yds., 7.3 ypc., 1 TD) and it always seems Navy has a capable fullback as they do again this year with Alexander Teich (93 yds., 4.2 ypc.). WR's actually now play a role in the Navy offense and are often left with one-on-one coverage when defenses load the box to stop the run. WR's Mario Washington (4 rec., 17.0 ypr.) and Mike Schupp (4 rec., 8.8 ypr.) have stepped in nicely and made some plays.
Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo has really started to grow on me and the more problems I see Georgia Tech have the more I think that this guy might have had something more to do with Paul Johnson having success at Navy. Niumatalolo has one of the better Navy defenses in rescent years and they will have focus their defensive efforts on talented Pitt RB Dion Lewis (319 yds., 7.3 ypc., 4 TD). This kid reminds me a lot of LeSean McCoy and Pitt head coach Dave Wanndstedt isnt' afraid to feed him the football. QB Bill Stull (69.6% comp., 5 TD/ 1 INT) has improved upon his numbers so far thus season but this will be the best defense he has faced so far this year. Look for him to get the ball to TE Dorin Dickerson (12 rec., 8.1 ypr., 4 TD) and WR's Johnathon Baldwin (7 rec., 16.3 ypr.) and Oderick Turner (6 rec., 6.8 ypr.). Pitt does have some talent on offense, but I believe Navy has some speed on defense to help slow down the Pitt attack.
Pit lost four of their top five tacklers from last year's team and it's apparent to me they have some issues on defense that will allow Navy to sustain drives and play keep-away from the Pitt offense. Anytime you can get Navy on the road, you will get their athletes more well-rested as they don't have to get up early as they do when they play at home to perform their military duties. This one should be an explosive battle and again I'll side with dog who could end up outrushing their opponent. Navy and the points is the play for me here.
Arizona +6
Can Mike Stoops have his boys ready to play this Saturday in Iowa City without his best offensive pass catcher? Despite going against Kirk Ferentz and a disciplined Iowa squad I do feel that Arizona has the athletes on both sides of the football, as well as good special teams play, and that they can trade blows with Iowa throughout the game.
The question will be for Arizona's offense is whether or not sophomore QB Matt Scott (66% comp., 1 TD/2 INT) can make enough plays through the air, without TE Rob Grownkowski (injured) to take some heat off of the Arizona ground game. I say this because Iowa's strength has always been against the run and although it's not every week they see a running back duo of Nick Grigsby (325 yds., 8.6 ypc., 3 TD) and Keola Antolin (97 yds., 5.1 ypc., 1 TD). Fortunately for Scott he is very mobile and could make some plays out of the pocket with his arm and also from zone read formations with his legs (8.2 ypc.). Arizona has seven pass catchers back from last years team, headlined by WR's Delashaun Dean (4 rec., 9.5 ypr.), Terell Turner (11 rec., 9.2 ypr., 1 TD) and TE Chris Gronkowski (2 rec., 9.5 ypr.). Arizona has the balance on offense that can allow them to play field position football and break the occasional big play, which are things they will need to do to stay competitive in this game.
Arizona returns 75% of their defense from last year and I was particularly impressed that a couple of weeks ago that they held CMU's explosive offensive unit to 6 points. They will need another good defensive effort come Saturday as they will be facing one of the more underrated QB's in the country in Iowa Ricky Stanzi (58.8% comp., 5 TD/ 2 INT). Stanzi will look to get the ball to his TE Tony Moeaki (11 rec., 7.9 ypr., 1 TD) and I thought last week both WR's Trey Stross (7 rec., 18.6 ypr.) and Derrell Johnson-Kulianos (4 rec., 15.3 ypr., 1 TD) played well and the Arizona defense will need to keep an eye on them. Freshman tailbacks Adam Robinson (132 yds., 4.9 ypc., 1 TD) and Brandon Wegher (101 yds., 6.7 ypc., 1 TD) aren't Shon Greene or even Jewel Hampton but they both ran well last week.
This game pits two very evenly matched teams on both sides of the football. Special teams could play a role in this one and it's worth noting that Arizona has one of the top punters in the country in Keenyn Crier (43.9 avg). If Arizona can keep turnovers to a minimum and limit big plays from the Iowa offense they will have real shot in this game. I'll take the Wildcats and the points in this one.
Arkansas -1
Wow, there has been a lot of talk about this game all week and fortunately for us all things will be settled come Saturday. Most expected Arkansas to be improved heading into this season, which I feel they are, but I think most people haven't yet realized that this Georgia team has some glaring weaknesses that could be exposed this weekend in Fayetteville.
Bobby Petrino is one of the best offensive minds in the game of college football and I remember towards the end of his stint in Louisville getting to the point where I just couldn't bet against him, especially when his team was playing at home. Rather quickly he has implemented his offensive system at Arkansas and has the right guy at the helm in QB Ryan Mallet (77.3% comp., 1 TD/ 0 INT). Mallet is a former number one recruit who originally began his career at Michigan but transfered once Rich Rodriguez took over. He is now suited in an offense who accentuates his strengths and he comes into this season having lost weight making him lighter on his feet. RB Michael Smith (1119 yds, 8 TD '08) runs extemely hard and leads the Arkansas rushing attack, and USC transfer Broderick Green (30 yds., 3.0 ypc., 1 TD) adds depth and big play ability. Arkansas returns their top seven pass catchers from last year, led by TE D.J. Williams (61 rec., 11.9 ypr., 3 TD '08) and WR's Lucas Miller (30 rec., 16.3 ypr., 2 TD), Joe Adams (31 rec., 12.2 ypr., 1 TD) and London Cawford (27 rec., 11.5 ypr., 1 TD) all are a year more experienced in Petrino's system which I feel can expose the Georgia secondary. Georgia's defensive unit has talented individual players, but their defensive scheme seems to be one that isn't clicking after watching them play the first two weeks.
I think the same can be said about Georgia's offensive unit. Even though they scored 41 points last week, many of those points came from special teams plays and big plays. I didn't see the ability of Georgia to be able to pound the football with their running game and part of that is due to the poor performance of Georgia QB Joe Cox (59.3% comp., 3 TD/2 INT). He may have descent numbers but he has made some poor decisions with the football at key times and seems to lack the arm strength needed to keep opposing SEC defenses honest. There was a noticable attempt by Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo to get the ball to WR A.J. Green (10 rec., 13.8 ypr., 1 TD) last week. Green is a talented player but has been the only one thus far to step up and make plays regularly through the air. RB Richard Samuel (152 yds., 4.3 ypc., 1 TD) has run reasonably well but doesn't seem to gain many yards after contact and Caleb King appears to still be banged up heading into this game. The Arkansas defensive unit isn't all that stout but I do believe they will force Cox to beat them and that they can force him into a couple of bad decisions.
The bottom line for me in this game is that Arkansas comes off a bye week and is in a good spot as they catch Georgia off two tough battles. While I respect Mark Richt's road record in the SEC it will be very difficult for Georgia to walk out with a victory on Saturday night. I'll take the up and coming young squad to give Georgia all they can handle. Arkansas laying the short number is the play for me in this game.
Good Luck To All
Is Nebraska for real? That's the question people have been asking all week. They have faced two Sun Belt opponents at home and this week go on the road to play a tough Virginia Tech squad on the road. I believe they have the defense, special teams and balance on offense to keep this game close for four quarters.
Nebraska QB Zach Lee (73.7% comp., 6 TD/1 TD) has played extremely well the first two games of the season, running the offense with great efficiency and making excellent decisions. Veteran receivers Mike McNeil (8 rec., 13.5 ypr., 2 TD) and Menelik Holt (8 rec., 10.6 ypr., 1 TD) lead the Nebraska receiving corps. RB Roy Helu Jr. (212 yds., 7.1 ypc., 3 TD, 5 rec., 9.4 ypr.) is one of the better all-around backs in the Big 12 and should play a key role in this game. Nebraska's balance on offense will allow them to move the football against Virginia Tech's defense, who will be without shutdown CB Stephan Virgil. Expect Nebraska to neutralize the Virginia Tech pass rush with WR screens and screen passes to the RB's. Virginia Tech's defense is at the bottom of the country in rush defense, and while I realize it's only been two weeks giving up 5.0 yards per carry to a less than stellar Marshall squad leads me to believe Nebraska can put some points up in this game.
Nebraska will have to center their attention around the Virginia Tech running game, as freshman RB's Ryan Williams (235 yds., 8.1 ypc., 5 TD) and David Wilson (165 yds., 13.8 ypc., 1 TD) have started the season well. The edge Nebraska should have defensively in this game should be against Virginia Tech's struggling passing game. At the beginning of the year I was hopeful that QB Tyrod Taylor (50% comp., 2 TD/1 INT) would have improved upon his passing but I have yet to see it. Also, he seems more hesitant to scramble and make plays with his legs. Nebraska's defense doesn't have to be perfect against the run in this game, they should be able to contain the Virginia Tech running game and put Taylor and company in some third and long situations.
If Bo Pelini's Nebraska special teams unit can match Frank Beamer's special teams unit, this should be anyone's ballgame. It's always a difficult proposition playing in Blacksburg, but Nebraska should be up to the task. I'll take Nebraska and the points in this game.
Boston College +7
This B.C. squad came into the season underrated and they appear to still be heading into this week's game against Clemson. I actually think it was a positive this offseason with Jeff Jagodzinski was fired for interviewing for an NFL job and they named longtime defenisive coordinator Frank Spaziani head coach. Spaziani's team will have it's hands full with some of Clemson's playmakers, but recently history between these two teams along with match-ups lead me to believe this should be another close game.
Redshirt freshman Justin Tuggle (52.9% comp., 3 TD/ 0 INT) appears to be B.C. most complete QB and I liked what I saw from him in last week's game vs. Kent State. He is mobile, has a strong arm and the ball comes out of his hand nicely. B.C. will also use former minor league baseball player David Shinskie (61.5% comp., 2 TD/ 1 INT) at quarterback. Shinskie is more of the drop-back passer although it appears he doesn't have as good of a grasp of the offense as Tuggle does. Both quarterbacks will be facing a strong defensive front of Clemson and will need to make good decisions while taking care of the football. B.C. has one of the more underrated RB's in the ACC in sophomore Montel Harris (181 yds., 5.3 ypc., 3 TD). B.C. also has two other talented young running backs in Josh Haden (75 yds., 3.9 ypc., 1 TD) and Rolandan Finch (90 yds., 6.9 ypc., 1 TD). While they are a young group, B.C. offense should have some success moving the football against Clemson's defense.
B.C. year in and year out produces top notch defenses and while they lost some key players off of a talented group from last year's team they bring back a nucleus of players who have a good amount of experience in playing defense in the ACC. What I have noticed about Clemson on offense is that most of their touchdowns in the first two games have come from big plays. This obviously shows the potential for them to make big plays, but it also leads me to believe that if you make Clemson earn it down the field they are going to have a tougher time generating points against a quality defensive unit like B.C.'s. Most of the attention will be paid to RB/KR C.J. Spiller (99 yds., 4.1 ypc., 4 rec., 17.3 ypr., 1 TD). WR Jacoby Ford (8 rec., 22.4 ypr., 2 TD) also has big play capability and freshman QB Willie Parker (47.1 % comp., 5 TD/2 INT) has played well thus far. B.C. will need to play sound defense against the run and make sure they keep plays in front of them in the secondary, two tasks which I feel they are capable of.
B.C. usually has good special teams units and former walk-on kicker Steve Aponavicius is solid and play a big role in the kicking game. B.C. will also have to be good in their kick-off coverage and punt coverage. If they can do so they should be able to make this anyone's ballgame. I'll take B.C. and the points here.
Tulsa +15.5
Todd Graham's scrappy Tulsa squad rolls into Norman this week to face a Sam Bradford and Germain Gresham-less Oklahoma squad in a game that could be filled with fireworks. It is also a game that I see Tulsa being more motivated for as most of their players probably weren't recruited by OU and the Tulsa players will be out to prove something come Saturday.
Tulsa QB G.J. Kinne (67.3% comp., 5 TD/ 0 INT), a Texas transfer, is a big athletic QB who appears to have a good grasp on Graham's spread option offense, which was tweeked for the better last year by former offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. Kinne has plenty of skilled playmakers to distribute the ball to and is aided by a terrific ground attack. FB Charles Clay (51 yds., 5.1 ypc., 2 TD) gets the tough yards between the tackles and WR Damaris Johnson (59 yds., 8.4 ypc., 3 rec., 20 ypr.) is their big play guy running the football and also through the air. Tulsa also has three solid WR's in Slick Shelley (9 rec., 14.8 ypr., 2 TD), Trae Johnson (5 rec., 15.4 ypr., 3 TD) and A.J. Whitmore (9 rec., 9.0 ypr.). Tulsa may have problems running the football early vs. a stout Oklahoma defensive front, but I believe Graham will let the passing game open up the running game.
Where I believe Tulsa has a better chance of having success than most people think will be with their defense against Oklahoma's offense. I can't stress how big it is for the Oklahoma offensive unit to be without QB Sam Bradford and TE Germain Gresham, who were both regarded by many around the country to be the best players in their respecitve positions in the entire nation. You just don't lose two great players like this without losing some fire power with your offense. While QB Landry Jones has gained some experience since the BYU game (although I'm not certain Idaho State was a true test), he just didn't have the arm strength, pocket prescense or ability to read the defense that Bradford does. Look for Oklahoma to feed the ball to RB's DeMarco Murray (159 yds., 7.2 ypc., 2 TD) and Chris Brown (124 yds., 5.0 ypc., 1 TD) which should allow Oklahoma to move the football, but they will have to earn their drives. When Landry does go to throw it's very evident his main target will be WR Ryan Broyles (11 rec., 16.5 ypr., 4 TD).
This is a match-up I see very similiar to last week's game between Houston and Oklahoma State, in that Tulsa much like Houston, has the motivation and firepower to keep up with a nationally ranked opponent who isn't yet at full strength. Going against Oklahoma in Norman is never an easy feat, but I feel Tulsa is ready for the challenge. Tulsa and the points is the play for me in this one.
Cincinnati +1.5
As a personal rule, anytime I can get a Brian Kelly coached football team with a "+" sign by their name I have to take a serious look at the game. While I think that Oregon State will be a worthy opponent and respect their home field greatly, I think Cincinnati could create some match-up issues this weekend that will allow them to escape Corvalis with a win.
Cincinnati QB Tony Pike (77.2% comp., 6 TD/ 1 INT) is playing as well as any quarterback in the entire country right now, and he will need to continue to do so on Saturday afternoon for his team to have a chance. In addition to Pike throwing the ball well and making excellent decisions he has a plethera of playmaking pass catchers to distribute the ball to. WR/KR Mardy Gilyard (14 rec., 14.3 ypr., 3 TD), famous for his hugging of a young boy after he ran into the boy on a play during a Thursday night game last year, is fresh off an 81 catch season from last year and is one of the more dangeroud kick returners in the country. D.J. Woods (7 rec., 13.0 ypr.) and Marcus Barnett (3 rec., 11.7 ypr., 1 TD) are veterans who know how to help move the chains. Cincinnati has also had more success running the football this year which should take some of the heat off Pike come Saturday. RB's Jacob Ramsey (142 yds., 9.5 ypc.) and Isaiah Pead (92 yds., 4.8 ypc., 1 TD) have both run well this early season and also do a good job catching the ball out of the backfield. While I think that Oregon State is a well-coached defensive unit, and has a good front seven, I do think that Cincinnati has several players to match up with and that they can expose OSU's secondary.
Watching last week's game vs. UNLV it's apparent to me that OSU head coach Mike Riley isn't afraid to use his two horses, RB Jacquizz Rodgers (269 yds., 6.4 ypc., 4 TD, 14 rec., 6.9 ypr.) and WR James Rodgers (8 rec., 17.9 ypr., 2 TD, 39 yds., 7.8 ypc.). The Rodgers brothers do it all, and when I say that I truly mean it. Right now these two players are accounting for over 75% of the team's total offense. I noticed last week that Jacquizz touched the ball on almost every play in the first half and that the UNLV defense hit him pretty hard. It was stated that he didn't participate in practice and I'm not sure that he heads into this game 100%. In the event that both he and his brother are at full strength I think having to focus their efforts on these two players will make game planning a little easier for Kelly and crew. While OSU QB Sean Canfield (78.6%, 3 TD/ 0 INT) has good numbers thus far he doesn't scare me as much as Lyle Moevao (still currently injured does) in a close game.
Both teams should play good in the special teams game and both teams will be well coached. I think an underrated Cincinnati defense unit can keep OSU's offense in check enough to let their offense expose the OSU secondary and escape Corvalis with a hard fought victory. Cincinnati and the points is my choice in this one.
Navy +7
I have to admit that I was dead wrong about Navy when studying them in the off season. I had them pegged as a program that was going to be down from the last couple of years, but after watching them the last two weeks I think they have the balance on offense and enough strength on defense that they can make a game of it with Pitt this weekend.
Navy QB Ricky Dobbs (66.7% comp., 2 TD/ 1 INT, 130 yds., 3.0 ypc., 4 TD) is a special player who makes excellent decisions when running the triple option and also adds a true passing threat to the Navy offense. I've also been impressed with A back Marcus Curry (138 yds., 7.3 ypc., 1 TD) and it always seems Navy has a capable fullback as they do again this year with Alexander Teich (93 yds., 4.2 ypc.). WR's actually now play a role in the Navy offense and are often left with one-on-one coverage when defenses load the box to stop the run. WR's Mario Washington (4 rec., 17.0 ypr.) and Mike Schupp (4 rec., 8.8 ypr.) have stepped in nicely and made some plays.
Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo has really started to grow on me and the more problems I see Georgia Tech have the more I think that this guy might have had something more to do with Paul Johnson having success at Navy. Niumatalolo has one of the better Navy defenses in rescent years and they will have focus their defensive efforts on talented Pitt RB Dion Lewis (319 yds., 7.3 ypc., 4 TD). This kid reminds me a lot of LeSean McCoy and Pitt head coach Dave Wanndstedt isnt' afraid to feed him the football. QB Bill Stull (69.6% comp., 5 TD/ 1 INT) has improved upon his numbers so far thus season but this will be the best defense he has faced so far this year. Look for him to get the ball to TE Dorin Dickerson (12 rec., 8.1 ypr., 4 TD) and WR's Johnathon Baldwin (7 rec., 16.3 ypr.) and Oderick Turner (6 rec., 6.8 ypr.). Pitt does have some talent on offense, but I believe Navy has some speed on defense to help slow down the Pitt attack.
Pit lost four of their top five tacklers from last year's team and it's apparent to me they have some issues on defense that will allow Navy to sustain drives and play keep-away from the Pitt offense. Anytime you can get Navy on the road, you will get their athletes more well-rested as they don't have to get up early as they do when they play at home to perform their military duties. This one should be an explosive battle and again I'll side with dog who could end up outrushing their opponent. Navy and the points is the play for me here.
Arizona +6
Can Mike Stoops have his boys ready to play this Saturday in Iowa City without his best offensive pass catcher? Despite going against Kirk Ferentz and a disciplined Iowa squad I do feel that Arizona has the athletes on both sides of the football, as well as good special teams play, and that they can trade blows with Iowa throughout the game.
The question will be for Arizona's offense is whether or not sophomore QB Matt Scott (66% comp., 1 TD/2 INT) can make enough plays through the air, without TE Rob Grownkowski (injured) to take some heat off of the Arizona ground game. I say this because Iowa's strength has always been against the run and although it's not every week they see a running back duo of Nick Grigsby (325 yds., 8.6 ypc., 3 TD) and Keola Antolin (97 yds., 5.1 ypc., 1 TD). Fortunately for Scott he is very mobile and could make some plays out of the pocket with his arm and also from zone read formations with his legs (8.2 ypc.). Arizona has seven pass catchers back from last years team, headlined by WR's Delashaun Dean (4 rec., 9.5 ypr.), Terell Turner (11 rec., 9.2 ypr., 1 TD) and TE Chris Gronkowski (2 rec., 9.5 ypr.). Arizona has the balance on offense that can allow them to play field position football and break the occasional big play, which are things they will need to do to stay competitive in this game.
Arizona returns 75% of their defense from last year and I was particularly impressed that a couple of weeks ago that they held CMU's explosive offensive unit to 6 points. They will need another good defensive effort come Saturday as they will be facing one of the more underrated QB's in the country in Iowa Ricky Stanzi (58.8% comp., 5 TD/ 2 INT). Stanzi will look to get the ball to his TE Tony Moeaki (11 rec., 7.9 ypr., 1 TD) and I thought last week both WR's Trey Stross (7 rec., 18.6 ypr.) and Derrell Johnson-Kulianos (4 rec., 15.3 ypr., 1 TD) played well and the Arizona defense will need to keep an eye on them. Freshman tailbacks Adam Robinson (132 yds., 4.9 ypc., 1 TD) and Brandon Wegher (101 yds., 6.7 ypc., 1 TD) aren't Shon Greene or even Jewel Hampton but they both ran well last week.
This game pits two very evenly matched teams on both sides of the football. Special teams could play a role in this one and it's worth noting that Arizona has one of the top punters in the country in Keenyn Crier (43.9 avg). If Arizona can keep turnovers to a minimum and limit big plays from the Iowa offense they will have real shot in this game. I'll take the Wildcats and the points in this one.
Arkansas -1
Wow, there has been a lot of talk about this game all week and fortunately for us all things will be settled come Saturday. Most expected Arkansas to be improved heading into this season, which I feel they are, but I think most people haven't yet realized that this Georgia team has some glaring weaknesses that could be exposed this weekend in Fayetteville.
Bobby Petrino is one of the best offensive minds in the game of college football and I remember towards the end of his stint in Louisville getting to the point where I just couldn't bet against him, especially when his team was playing at home. Rather quickly he has implemented his offensive system at Arkansas and has the right guy at the helm in QB Ryan Mallet (77.3% comp., 1 TD/ 0 INT). Mallet is a former number one recruit who originally began his career at Michigan but transfered once Rich Rodriguez took over. He is now suited in an offense who accentuates his strengths and he comes into this season having lost weight making him lighter on his feet. RB Michael Smith (1119 yds, 8 TD '08) runs extemely hard and leads the Arkansas rushing attack, and USC transfer Broderick Green (30 yds., 3.0 ypc., 1 TD) adds depth and big play ability. Arkansas returns their top seven pass catchers from last year, led by TE D.J. Williams (61 rec., 11.9 ypr., 3 TD '08) and WR's Lucas Miller (30 rec., 16.3 ypr., 2 TD), Joe Adams (31 rec., 12.2 ypr., 1 TD) and London Cawford (27 rec., 11.5 ypr., 1 TD) all are a year more experienced in Petrino's system which I feel can expose the Georgia secondary. Georgia's defensive unit has talented individual players, but their defensive scheme seems to be one that isn't clicking after watching them play the first two weeks.
I think the same can be said about Georgia's offensive unit. Even though they scored 41 points last week, many of those points came from special teams plays and big plays. I didn't see the ability of Georgia to be able to pound the football with their running game and part of that is due to the poor performance of Georgia QB Joe Cox (59.3% comp., 3 TD/2 INT). He may have descent numbers but he has made some poor decisions with the football at key times and seems to lack the arm strength needed to keep opposing SEC defenses honest. There was a noticable attempt by Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo to get the ball to WR A.J. Green (10 rec., 13.8 ypr., 1 TD) last week. Green is a talented player but has been the only one thus far to step up and make plays regularly through the air. RB Richard Samuel (152 yds., 4.3 ypc., 1 TD) has run reasonably well but doesn't seem to gain many yards after contact and Caleb King appears to still be banged up heading into this game. The Arkansas defensive unit isn't all that stout but I do believe they will force Cox to beat them and that they can force him into a couple of bad decisions.
The bottom line for me in this game is that Arkansas comes off a bye week and is in a good spot as they catch Georgia off two tough battles. While I respect Mark Richt's road record in the SEC it will be very difficult for Georgia to walk out with a victory on Saturday night. I'll take the up and coming young squad to give Georgia all they can handle. Arkansas laying the short number is the play for me in this game.
Good Luck To All
