Pags' Plays 9/19

**raiders...someda** · 09-16-09, 12:08 PM

2 team ml parlay, tarheels and packers, seems close to a lock to me

**obamaismyuncle** · 09-16-09, 12:34 PM

Good luck this week, shall I tail a few or tail all your plays this week?

**cashflow50** · 09-16-09, 12:53 PM

GL this week bud..

**vinwon8** · 09-16-09, 02:34 PM

PAGS: Thanks for your valued info. The hard work will pay off in the long run!! Can you answer a ? for me "PLEASE". In the virginia-So.Miss gm their are some elements I can't understand. First off Virginia has a E/V of 15.5, in all my capping I see no way So.Miss. has a 16-17.5 advantage at various books. The Sar. PR has SO.Miss as a -4.27 fav. which seems more realistic. They have beat Alcorn ST. a FCS team ranked 221 in the country, and they also beat Central Fla. a team with prob. ever since the death of a player who G.O'leary curcsed at during the workout. On the other hand we have Virginia who has their share of prob. also: They lost to William@mary, who is a FCS team ranked 79 in the country, and in my opinion could beat several BCS teams. Finally they lost to T.C.U. by 16, who I believe needs no intoduction. I believe if T.C.U. were playing So.Miss. the line would be T.C.U. -14.5!! Once again what am I missing? Thanks again for taking up your time. GL with your picks and all your endeavours.

**Flaghunter** · 09-16-09, 03:03 PM

Hey Pags, Like to see we are together on the Nebraska and Navy games. I like getting points and these two games jump out from the get go. I think Nebraska is under the radar a bit and geting +5 pts with them is good. Look forward to your input on the others and Cinn Bearcats is one im looking at also. I'm laenain towards that BYU / Fla st game taking BYU. They way Fla St played last week against Jackson St, I think BYU should be able to handle them also at -7.5 pts. BOL to you these week. Time to start making the Green..

**pags11** · 09-16-09, 05:11 PM

Fogtown,

that's a good point about Dodge...no clue on that game really...

KingJIM,

thanks kingjim...will have them for you tomorrow night sometime...GL...

Joe Dogs,

I only wish I was doing a better job thus far...apparently people are seeing the Nebraska and Tulsa plays quited differently than I am...the Tulsa line move especially bugs me...GL bud...

oda11,

thank you...I'm going to try and do better this week...GL...

mcmc,

appreciate your feedback on both of those games...glad to hear we will be on them together...GL this week...

obamaismyuncle,

it isn't my job to tell you what plays of mine you should play if any, I simply post what I play each week and for how much I play them...hell I don't care if you want to fade them with the results I have had thus far...what I don't want is for you to bitch, that's all I care about...GL...

cashflow50,

thank you and GL to you as well...

vinwon8,

man you really bring up an interesting game this week...I listened to the whole So. Miss game last week and as you are probably aware I was burned laying over two TD's to a George O'Leary coached squad (he's a tough guy to lay points against regardless of how bad his teams are). I think Southern Miss is probably the third best team in CUSA behind Houston and Tulsa and they do have some good players and are well coached...my biggest issues with them is on their offensive and defensive lines...I am not interested in laying those type of points again to Virginia...not that I think Virginia is good or that they are even well coached but Virginia usually has descent line play which could make this a tough cover for Southern Miss...GL with what you decide...

Flaghunter,

thanks for your thoughts...great grab on Nebraska at +5, I thought they were a good play at +3.5 and agree that they are a good team...playing at Va. Tech will be tough but I feel they are up to the challenge this week in what could be a close game either way...GL...

**taurus** · 09-16-09, 05:12 PM

pags- I know you don't do much with mid-week games but shouldn't I like my chances with Paul Johnson vs Randy Shannon getting 5 points even tho the game is on the road ?
Hoping those points in the Nebraska game doesn't matter, and we get a SU win.
GL

**pags11** · 09-16-09, 05:14 PM

taurus,

my opinion is that the line in that game is about right and it's not worthy of a play...I seriously hope that with Nebraska too as I got a less than favorable line in that one...GL my friend...

**Cougar Bait** · 09-16-09, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by pags11

taurus,

my opinion is that the line in that game is about right and it's not worthy of a play...I seriously hope that with Nebraska too as I got a less than favorable line in that one...GL my friend...

I think the best bad habit I have broken so far this year is staying away from Thursday and Friday night games...it is easy to want to play...I won't stray this week though. I agree completely that it's a better game to watch than wager on. BOL this week Pags

**Stan Bowles** · 09-16-09, 06:00 PM

Pags,

I rarely comment on threads but I'm always lurking, absorbing & learning from your posts. I really appreciate the thoroughness of your work on picks and your sound gambling advice. You save me lots of money and allow me to enjoy my hobby much more.

Many thanks and good luck this week.

Stan.

**looseonthelead** · 09-16-09, 06:20 PM

Pags, any thoughts on buying a bit more on Tulsa now that its steamed over a ker number?GL and continued success

**Henry** · 09-16-09, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by pags11

Play Number Four:

Cincinnati +1.5 (+101) for 1.5 units...
Arizona +6 (-102) for 1.5 units...

Love these plays!! Good Luck the rest of the year pags.

**polson22** · 09-16-09, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by Fogtown

Be careful with that North Texas game. Riley Dodge, North Texas QB, is out for the game.

fogtown, thank you very very much. did not know dodge was out. might have seen it later in week when i do more in-depth analysis, but often i skip that step

....... anyway, pretty sure i'll skip that game now. dodge at QB makes the whole team better, i think.

**dise-pa** · 09-16-09, 10:02 PM

texas is going to take texas tech behind the woodshed for a good ol whippen with the hickory stick remember last year what goes around comes around....but all the kiss of death cappers will be on this one.. as some kind of GOY revenge GOY so I take a wait and see approch...love what all u people do here keep up the good work.....

**pags11** · 09-16-09, 10:42 PM

Cougar Bait,

good stuff bud...essentially for me to play a weeknight game I ask myself, "Is this a game I would play if it were being played on Saturday?" Most of the time the answer is no...

Stan Bowles,

thank you very much for posting...sorry we haven't had more success this year but I feel like we can keep grinding and make a profit...glad to hear gambling is a hobby for you as it is for me as well...good job keeping things in perspective...

looseonthelead,

dude I've got no clue on the line move other than people back in the midwest are thinking Tulsa won't score much...the thing is, is that I don't think Oklahoma will score as much as people think either...I liked it at 15.5 so yes I like it at 17.5 but I am frustrated with the line move...GL...

Henry,

glad we will be on those two together...GL...

polson22,

dise-pa,

GL...

**cspurs** · 09-16-09, 10:50 PM

it isn't my job to tell you what plays of mine you should play if any, I simply post what I play each week and for how much I play them...hell I don't care if you want to fade them with the results I have had thus far...what I don't want is for you to bitch, that's all I care about...GL...

well said Pags !!
just wanted to say Thanks for all your hard work each week and Best of Luck to ya !!!

**pags11** · 09-17-09, 12:53 AM

cspurs,

thanks man...BOL to you this week...

**TheSystem** · 09-17-09, 01:02 AM

Pags.....i'm new to this forum, but i've noticed you're obviously well respected. Let me just fill you in on a little secret, you're about to have a monster weekend my friend. LOVE LOVE LOVE about 90% of your plays.

Also, I like the advice you gave about betting weeknight games, I feel the same way.

**pags11** · 09-17-09, 01:18 AM

TheSystem,

welcome to SBR, I appreciate you posting and the kind words...I sure hope you are right 'cause my results lately have been less than stellar...BOL to you this week...

**jsmithj88** · 09-17-09, 01:29 AM

wat is the max units that u will be wagering down the line?

**pags11** · 09-17-09, 01:44 AM

jsmithj88,

3 units per game...

**Ulver86** · 09-17-09, 01:46 AM

bol pags, have been lurking for a bit now and respect your attitude and philosophy

im with you on Cincy and Nebraska, gl this week

**pags11** · 09-17-09, 01:50 AM

Ulver86,

appreciate you posting in my thread...thank you for saying so, I just try to be real and hope that people appreciate it...glad we are on a couple of games together...BOL to you this week...

**daneblazer** · 09-17-09, 08:34 AM

I'm on a few of the same games as you this week. Having the discipline to manage my bankroll properly has been the biggest thing I needed to work on. So I'm following your model of units per week. No more parlays or "doubling up". Good luck this week.

**jacksonjohn** · 09-17-09, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by pags11

it opened +2...I was at bookmaker at 3:40 PM PST and logged the wager...trust me...

Why would going from +2 to -1 be a positive thing? Wouldn't that mean the public is all over Arkansas? Usually a bad sign, correct?

**PingPong** · 09-17-09, 10:56 AM

or the sharp money is on arky

**mv09** · 09-17-09, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by pags11

tobycsh39,

thanks for checking in and for the well wishes...I definitely think A&M is improved and with Utah State's defense the will score some points this weekend...my concern is that USU has two really good players in QB Borel and RB Turbin and the backdoor could be open late in that game...it's a no play for me...GL this week...

Couldnt agree more

**snutz69** · 09-17-09, 03:41 PM

Pags tryin to decide on the BC or Cinci pick as my 5th for my 5on5. Cinci. v Or. St. is PICK, would you still take Cinci -1 or no play. Thanks again and good luck this week, lets kill um!

**pags11** · 09-17-09, 06:18 PM

daneblazer,

good to hear you are working on your money management and discipline...good work...

jacksonjohn,

I don't agree with that line of thinking as I don't think the public moves lines...

PingPong,

exactly...

mv09,

glad to hear we think similiarly on that one...

snutz69,

hmmm, I don't know what to tell you on that one...I posted what I played and what I played them for...I'm not very good at advising people on what plays of mine to pick out...

**dave11486** · 09-17-09, 07:52 PM

GL this weekend pags. Looking forward to watching some of these great games.

**shrax4** · 09-17-09, 09:19 PM

Pags, do you think any teams will win by exactly 8?
Pags, should I bet 10 on the first game, 20 on the next, and 1,000 on the third?
Pags, will any running backs throw a touchdown on Sat?

Will the sun rise tomorrow?

If I think of anymore dumb questions to add, I will do so for sure. I have to stick with the theme of the posting in your thread, right?

I love the Navy and Nebraska picks. Didn't bet AZ when it opened and may pass now at 4. Show me 5-2 this week bud.

**pags11** · 09-18-09, 01:00 AM

dave11486,

thanks bud, good to see you around...enjoy the weekend and GL on your plays...

shrax4,

lol, good stuff bud...glad we will be on a couple together pal...GL this week...

**madworld** · 09-18-09, 02:04 AM

pags,

Good to see your still hanging around, just wanted to say thanks for all your work. Good Luck to you this week, following you on a couple picks but wont tell you which ones because it was bad luck last year. Again, thanks for all your hard work.

**MexicanStallion** · 09-18-09, 02:11 AM

Good luck Pags. I know you will start to roll in the upcoming weeks.

**clowncar** · 09-18-09, 04:39 AM

Where the hell is my thursday night reading material ?