Careful if you're on Buffalo this week, I was wanting to play them yesterday, but their QB got hurt last week and is doubtful and so is their backup who missed the last 2 weeks. Miami has been missing their QB also, but that isn't new.
-
Comment -
A few teams I would be wary of because their opponent has been playing them tight in recent years. TCU, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Penn St and I'm sure there are some others I'm forgetting, and I liked all of those I listed.
So far I'm personally interested in..
Wyoming
Fresno St
UL Lafayette
Nevada
Army
Texas
Notre Dame
Colorado State
and some others if I get to them or depending how the line plays out..
Syracuse
Indiana
UTSA
Memphis
E.Michigan
Wisconsin
Missouri
PurdueComment -
I need the Cubs to come through for me tonight to win my 2nd free play this month at 5Dimes.
________________________________________ ______
10/17/2017 06:06 PM Baseball MLB
964 Chicago Cubs K Hendricks - R pk vs 963 Los Angeles Dodgers Y Darvish - R
Pending
10/16/2017 07:35 PM Baseball MLB
910 New York Yankees C Sabathia - L pk vs 909 Houston Astros C Morton - R
Win
10/15/2017 12:42 PM Football NFL
271 Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs 272 Oakland Raiders
Win
10/14/2017 06:12 AM Hockey NHL
19 Boston Bruins pk vs 20 Arizona Coyotes
Win
10/12/2017 02:00 PM Baseball MLB
959 Chicago Cubs K Hendricks - R pk vs 960 Washington Nationals G Gonzalez - L
Win
10/11/2017 07:56 PM Hockey NHL
55 Boston Bruins pk vs 56 Colorado Avalanche
Loss
10/09/2017 08:25 AM Baseball MLB
905 Washington Nationals M Scherzer - R pk vs 906 Chicago Cubs J Quintana - L
Loss
10/08/2017 01:01 PM Football NFL
471 Green Bay Packers +2ยฝ vs 472 Dallas Cowboys
Win
10/05/2017 07:20 PM Football NFL
303 New England Patriots -3ยฝ vs 304 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win
10/04/2017 07:27 PM Baseball MLB
934 Arizona Diamondbacks Z Greinke - R -1 vs 933 Colorado Rockies J Gray - R
Win
10/02/2017 08:17 PM Football NFL
280 Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs 279 Washington Redskins
Win
10/01/2017 12:14 PM Football NFL
260 Houston Texans +2ยฝ vs 259 Tennessee Titans
Win
Comment -
First glance plays Memphis Col.St UCF. Minn and PurdueComment -
Temple is 46-25-2 ATS since Sept. 2006 as a Dog.
46-25-2 (4.92, 64.8%) avg line: 12.5 +6: 56-15-2 (78.9%) -6: 28-42-3 (40.0%) +10: 61-11-1 (84.7%) -10: 21-50-2 (29.6%) 28-45-0 (-3.09, 38.4%) avg total: 50.7 +6: 20-53-0 (27.4%) -6: 36-35-2 (50.7%) +10: 15-57-1 (20.8%) -10: 48-22-3 (68.6%)
Kansas 28-60-2 ATS since Oct. 1995 as a Road Dog.
28-60-2 (-5.15, 31.8%) avg line: 18.9 +6: 45-44-1 (50.6%) -6: 17-72-1 (19.1%) +10: 54-33-3 (62.1%) -10: 12-78-0 (13.3%)
N.Illinois is 28-8 ATS L36 on the Road.
28-8-0 (8.33, 77.8%) 28-8-0 (5.92, 77.8%) avg line: -2.4 +6: 29-6-1 (82.9%) -6: 17-19-0 (47.2%) +10: 31-5-0 (86.1%) -10: 14-21-1 (40.0%)
N.Illinois is 10-3-1 ATS L14 overall.
10-3-1 (4.39, 76.9%) avg line: -3.0 +6: 13-0-1 (100.0%) -6: 5-9-0 (35.7%) +10: 14-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 3-10-1 (23.1%) 3-10-1 (-6.07, 23.1%) avg total: 57.1 +6: 2-11-1 (15.4%) -6: 5-9-0 (35.7%) +10: 1-13-0 (7.1%) -10: 10-4-0 (71.4%)
Navy is 83-46-1 ATS since Oct. 1994 as a Dog.
83-46-1 (3.70, 64.3%) avg line: 11.1 +6: 100-30-0 (76.9%) -6: 48-82-0 (36.9%) +10: 108-22-0 (83.1%) -10: 37-93-0 (28.5%)
UCONN is 5-18 ATS L23 at Home.
UCONN 1-8 ATS L9 as a Dog.5-18-0 (-6.48, 21.7%) avg line: 1.0 +6: 10-13-0 (43.5%) -6: 5-18-0 (21.7%) +10: 13-9-1 (59.1%) -10: 5-18-0 (21.7%) 7-14-1 (-3.23, 33.3%) avg total: 50.2 +6: 5-17-0 (22.7%) -6: 10-11-1 (47.6%) +10: 4-18-0 (18.2%) -10: 15-7-0 (68.2%)
1-8-0 (-12.39, 11.1%) avg line: 9.6 +6: 3-6-0 (33.3%) -6: 1-8-0 (11.1%) +10: 4-5-0 (44.4%) -10: 1-8-0 (11.1%)
UCONN is 19-44-1 ATS since 2012.
19-44-1 (-3.97, 30.2%) avg line: 5.6 +6: 33-31-0 (51.6%) -6: 16-48-0 (25.0%) +10: 44-19-1 (69.8%) -10: 15-49-0 (23.4%)
Baylor is 13-4 ATS L17 as a Dog.
13-4-0 (11.85, 76.5%) avg line: 12.3 +6: 15-2-0 (88.2%) -6: 10-7-0 (58.8%) +10: 15-2-0 (88.2%) -10: 10-7-0 (58.8%)
Purdue 10-1 ATS L11 on the Road.
10-1-0 (8.23, 90.9%) avg line: 16.5 +6: 10-1-0 (90.9%) -6: 7-4-0 (63.6%) +10: 10-1-0 (90.9%) -10: 5-6-0 (45.5%)
E.Michigan 16-4 ATS L20 overall.
16-4-0 (3.88, 80.0%) avg line: 4.2 +6: 17-3-0 (85.0%) -6: 10-9-1 (52.6%) +10: 18-2-0 (90.0%) -10: 3-16-1 (15.8%) 6-14-0 (-4.40, 30.0%) avg total: 58.2 +6: 4-15-1 (21.1%) -6: 7-12-1 (36.8%) +10: 3-17-0 (15.0%) -10: 13-6-1 (68.4%)
Georgia Southern is 2-12-1 ATS L15 overall.
3-12-0 (-11.53, 20.0%) 2-12-1 (-6.90, 14.3%) avg line: 4.6 +6: 5-10-0 (33.3%) -6: 2-13-0 (13.3%) +10: 9-6-0 (60.0%) -10: 2-13-0 (13.3%)
S.Alabama is 2-12 ATS L14 as a Favorite.
2-12-0 (-5.68, 14.3%) avg line: -13.3 +6: 8-6-0 (57.1%) -6: 1-13-0 (7.1%) +10: 9-5-0 (64.3%) -10: 0-14-0 (0.0%)
Louisville 1-10 ATS L11 overall.
1-10-0 (-15.64, 9.1%) avg line: -19.5 +6: 4-7-0 (36.4%) -6: 0-11-0 (0.0%) +10: 4-7-0 (36.4%) -10: 0-11-0 (0.0%)
Louisville 12-3-1 ATS L16 as a Road Dog.
12-3-1 (6.03, 80.0%) avg line: 8.1 +6: 13-3-0 (81.2%) -6: 9-5-2 (64.3%) +10: 14-1-1 (93.3%) -10: 6-9-1 (40.0%)
Tulane 2-10 ATS L12 as a Home Dog.
0-12-0 (-17.58, 0.0%) 2-10-0 (-9.04, 16.7%) avg line: 8.5 +6: 6-6-0 (50.0%) -6: 0-12-0 (0.0%) +10: 7-5-0 (58.3%) -10: 0-12-0 (0.0%) 3-9-0 (-7.29, 25.0%) avg total: 50.7 +6: 2-10-0 (16.7%) -6: 5-7-0 (41.7%) +10: 2-10-0 (16.7%) -10: 7-5-0 (58.3%)
TCU 1-8-1 L10 at Home.
5-5-0 (6.80, 50.0%) 1-8-1 (-11.05, 11.1%) avg line: -17.9 +6: 4-5-1 (44.4%) -6: 0-10-0 (0.0%) +10: 5-5-0 (50.0%) -10: 0-10-0 (0.0%)
E.Carolina is 1-12-1 L14 as a Dog.
1-13-0 (-24.93, 7.1%) 1-12-1 (-10.43, 7.7%) avg line: 14.5 +6: 5-9-0 (35.7%) -6: 1-13-0 (7.1%) +10: 6-8-0 (42.9%) -10: 0-14-0 (0.0%)
Georgia Tech 9-0 ATS L9 overall.
SMU is 11-1 ATS L12 as a Favorite.7-2-0 (12.11, 77.8%) 9-0-0 (9.50, 100.0%) avg line: -2.6 +6: 9-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 5-4-0 (55.6%) +10: 9-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 4-5-0 (44.4%) 2-7-0 (-2.06, 22.2%) avg total: 54.8 +6: 1-8-0 (11.1%) -6: 6-2-1 (75.0%) +10: 1-8-0 (11.1%) -10: 7-2-0 (77.8%)
11-1-0 (17.67, 91.7%) 11-1-0 (6.17, 91.7%) avg line: -11.5 +6: 11-1-0 (91.7%) -6: 5-7-0 (41.7%) +10: 11-1-0 (91.7%) -10: 4-8-0 (33.3%)
Cincy is 1-9 ATS L10 at Home.
0-11-1 (-15.29, 0.0%) avg line: -20.5 +6: 2-9-1 (18.2%) -6: 0-12-0 (0.0%) +10: 4-8-0 (33.3%) -10: 0-12-0 (0.0%)
Boise St 3-12-1 ATS L16 as a Favorite.
3-12-1 (-8.53, 20.0%) avg line: -16.3 +6: 6-9-1 (40.0%) -6: 3-13-0 (18.8%) +10: 8-8-0 (50.0%) -10: 1-15-0 (6.2%)
Tennessee is 0-6 ATS L6 overall.
0-6-0 (-11.17, 0.0%) avg line: -9.0 +6: 3-3-0 (50.0%) -6: 0-6-0 (0.0%) +10: 4-2-0 (66.7%) -10: 0-6-0 (0.0%) 1-5-0 (-6.75, 16.7%) avg total: 52.2 +6: 1-5-0 (16.7%) -6: 2-3-1 (40.0%) +10: 1-5-0 (16.7%) -10: 4-2-0 (66.7%)
Colorado is 6-0 ATS L6 as a Road Dog.
6-0-0 (6.17, 100.0%) avg line: 10.0 +6: 6-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 3-3-0 (50.0%) +10: 6-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 1-4-1 (20.0%)
Colorado is 9-2 ATS L11 on the Road.
9-2-0 (4.68, 81.8%) avg line: 6.4 +6: 9-2-0 (81.8%) -6: 5-6-0 (45.5%) +10: 11-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 2-8-1 (20.0%) Comment -
Looks decent to me, cept for the Minnesota game, that's one of the few games I haven't done any work on, not really interested in laying those points with how banged up they were/are even against that bad Illinois offense. You might have a better beat on it than me though, like I said I haven't even ran numbers for that game.Comment -
Added Memphis and UL Lafayette for tonight.
___________________________
UL Lafayette 22-11-1 ATS since 2010 as a Road Dog, 13-5 ATS as a Dog of 14 or less.
UL Lafayette 2-1 SUATS since 2015 on Thursday.
UL Lafayette 5-1 SUATS L6 Conference games, 4-0 SUATS L4 on the Road.
UL Lafayette 13-3 ATS as a Conference Road Dog since 2010, 9-8 SU.
UL Lafayette 4-1 ATS as a Road Conference Dog after a Home win.
Arkansas St 3-9 ATS at Home vs ULL, 1-3 L4.
Arkansas St 7-16-1 ATS vs ULL, 2-7 ATS L9.
Arkansas St 3-0 SUATS since 2015 on Thursday.
Arkansas St 5-5-1 ATS L11 as a Home Favorite, 4-0-1 L5 as Conference Home Fav.
Arkansas St 3-5 ATS since 2012 at Home in a Conference game after a Home win.
Double Digit Home Favorites are 6-12 ATS on Thursday this year, 44% since 2013.
Home Conference Favorites after a Home win on Thursdays are 4-14 ATS L18.Comment -
Not a good start for Lafayette, fumbled 1st possession, recovered and returned for a TD. Can't be giving that offense free points.Comment -
But see what your numbers say with Minny pleaseComment -
What a comeback by Memphis. I had Memphis and the pts on an open parlay.Comment -
Thought about hedging with Old Dominion 2nd half and coming away with at least something and or a slim chance at a middle, but I like the way W.Kentucky is starting to move the ball.Comment -
Middle Tenn is moving the ball well, but the 2 turnovers killing them. Too bad there isn't an easy way to predict turnovers, need another Memphis style comeback.Comment -
One winner and two duds tonight in football, but I can't be mad. I went 2-0 in NBA for +3.16 and 2-0 in NHL for +2.41 on the night, posted in my other threads.Comment -
I like Iowa but fau should take down north Texas no problemComment -
N.Texas is no slouch, they won SU as dogs their last two games against similar ranked opponents as Florida Atl, won at S.Miss as +8 dogs by 15 and won last week vs UTSA, a team that handled them last year. They also took Iowa to the 4th quarter in a 17-14 game. Florida Atl is 2-11-1 L14 as a Conference Home Favorite. They do have a new coach that's improved them but N.Texas can definitely beat them.
Iowa is the one with the RLM, opened at +1.5, went to -2 and now +2.Comment -
Saturday 10/21 Plays
ยค Iowa pk -110 (5Dimes)
ยค N.Carolina +21 -110 (Bovada)
ยค North Texas +3 +105 (5Dimes)
ยค Georgia Tech -4 -110 (5Dimes)
ยค Arizona -3 -105 (Bovada)
ยค Wyoming +14 -110 (5Dimes)
ยค Fresno St +7.5 -115 (5Dimes)
ยค Colorado +10 -110 (5Dimes)
ยค N.Carolina/Va.Tech Under 51ยฝ -110 (5Dimes)
ยค Parlay +103 (Purdue -355)(N.Illinois -525)(C.Florida -300)
ยค Teaser -110 (Texas +17)(Indiana +17)(Fresno St +17.5)
___________________________
Here are all of today's plays to make it easier with new plays added.Comment -
Week 8 Results
LOSS - ยค UL Lafayette +12 -110 (Bovada)
WIN - ยค Memphis ML +105 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ยค W.Kentucky -7 +105 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ยค Middle Tenn ML +103 (5Dimes)
WIN - ยค Nevada +7 -115 (Bovada)
LOSS - ยค Iowa pk -110 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ยค N.Carolina +21 -110 (Bovada)
LOSS - ยค North Texas +3 +105 (5Dimes)
WIN - ยค Georgia Tech -4 -110 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ยค Arizona -3 -105 (Bovada)
WIN - ยค Wyoming +14 -110 (5Dimes)
WIN - ยค Fresno St +7.5 -115 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ยค Colorado +10 -110 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ยค N.Carolina/Va.Tech Under 51ยฝ -110 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ยค Parlay +103 (Purdue -355)(N.Illinois -525)(C.Florida -300)
WIN - ยค Teaser -110 (Texas +17)(Indiana +17)(Fresno St +17.5)
___________________________
Week 8 = 6-10 for -4.50
__________________________
Season = 49-37 for +13.03
___________________________
ATS Total = 28-23 for +3.49
(Dogs = 16-17 for -2.18 )
(Favs = 12-6 for +5.67 )
---------------------------
ML Total = 7-4 for +4.05
(Dogs = 7-2 for +6.20)
(Favs = 0-2 for -2.15)
---------------------------
O/U Total = 1-2 for -1.10
(Over = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(Under = 1-1 for -0.10 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-1 for -1.00 )
---------------------------
Parlays = 6-5 for +2.99
---------------------------
Teasers = 7-3 for +3.60
___________________________
Week 1 = 5-7 for -2.17
Week 2 = 4-3 for +1.17
Week 3 = 11-1 for +10.30
Week 4 = 3-2 for +1.92
Week 5 = 6-4 for +1.92
Week 6 = 5-5 for -0.21
Week 7 = 9-5 for +4.60
Week 8 = 6-10 for -4.50
____________________
No excuses, got my ass handed to me today and gave pretty much all of last week's profits back to the books. IT was bound to happen and it was a good point in the season to have a bad week, hard to stay above 60% all year. I think I'll take my time with my picks this week and let the line movements play out, I went 0-5 with my 5 early picks and 4-2 in my last 6 that should of been 5-1. I've noticed that all season with my later picks where I take my time reading the lines have done better than my early ones.
It could of easily been a 10-6 week instead of a 6-10 but I've had some breaks go my way this year so I can't complain too much.
Lafayette was a dud.
Memphis made a good comeback for the win.
W.Kentucky didn't show up the 1st half and missed by 3.
Middle Tenn was a dud.
Nevada was a pick I liked a lot but they made me sweat it out with that defense. I don't know how you can't make an adjustment and take away the wide field, but they never did and got lucky.
I had a loss in OT with Iowa, but they were outplayed and and out coached, their offense was so vanilla and repetitive is was sickening. This was my first play early in the week when it looked like I was ahead of the line movement when I got it at pick, and went to -2, but then ended up +3 today, not something I would touch if I would of waited.
N.Carolina was the game that made me quit watching until the late games after they gave up two def TD's in the 1st Q, so I don't know how the rest went other than they got beat down. Looked like that VT DL was way too much for them and the crowd made it seem like it was a night game.
N.Texas got beat down bad, I didn't see any of it and I'm glad I didn't. Looks like Jeff was right about that one and I was wrong.
Georgia Tech line drop didn't fool me much even though Wake has played them tough recently, they are pretty good ATS and one of those teams that always seems to come thru for me.
Arizona blew a nice lead from the looks of it and by the time I started watching, it went downhill and of course Cal screwed up at then end in OT.
Wyoming went like I suspected even though they made it a closer clover at the end.
Fresno St is on fire and I wish i would of played them ML.
Colorado couldn't finish drives and Wash St just kept on added on to a a easy cover.
Purdue missed the 2pt conversion to tie it at the end and lost my ML parlay, 2nd week in a row 1 loss got me in a ML parlay.
And again I win another teaser, this one took me longer to come up with and I even had to use a team I played ATS and I usually don't like to do that.
_____________________________________
Line movements got the better of me this week, the ones I played early I was stuck with and the ones I talked about playing like Syracuse and Notre Dame and a few others I got scared off because of it. Hopefully I can go another 8 weeks until my next stinker.Comment -
Tough day. I had a losing today myself. I made too many plays. I also lost focus and added plays that were not as strong. I need to focus on the team's and conferences I have been following the past month. Playing Marshall and UNT balanced each other out but I was familiar with neither. By wagering my strongest plays I can have a winning week when they hit. I also have to limit myself with parlays and teasers.
In other ways it was one of those days. USF was comfortably ahead of the cover and I went out. Came home and saw they lost the cover in the 4th Q. UAB also lost a sizeable lead. Auburn I bet the past 3 weeks. I backed away this week after they blew the LSU game. I wanted to fade Arkansas but was scared off by the seemingly high -15.5. I also tracked line movement with Cindy - a drop down to +5.5. Didn't bet it.
I'm already browsing next week's card to highlight the games of interest. I need to create a narrow list this week. I want to have an idea of which lines I will bet Monday if the numbers are good.Comment -
Love Penn State. My local put it at 5.5 OSU not sure he will changeComment -
The bad big 10 teams really showed their identities Sat. With the starters now hurt and Freshman playing it will show up.Comment -
Not harping but I tried to tell you Washington St. Last week. Mike Leach would chew ass. Did you see he made the offense do up downs during the game while he watched. ClassicComment -
I got a little bit of work done Sunday while playing poker.
Numbers in () next to teams are YPP margins and the numbers in the two () in the middle is +HF and +SOS added.
I know some are easily confused so I'll try to explain it better using the first one below.
E.Michigan has a -0.8 YPP margin and N.Illinois has a +2.5. That would make N.Illinois -3.3. Add in points for HF advantage would make them -6.6. Add in the SOS difference of 3.0 in favor of E.Michigan and you get N.Illinois back at -3.3. The line is -8 when I last checked so that indicated a value between +1.4 and +4.7 for E.Michigan.
This is pretty much a base cap and you can add or subtract from it if you find other edges that isn't accounted for. For instance, the weather forecast may effect style of play or injury status's, trends, etc..
In this game, E.Michigan has been very good ATS going 16-4-1 L21 and N.Illinois usually doesn't play as well at Home. E.Michigan has a pretty good passing game from what I've watched of them. Both teams are better than last year. E.Michigan really needs a win here for bowl sakes. Everything I've seen so far makes me lean E.Michigan.
The other way I do it takes longer but gives me point totals also, but I'm not too interested in totals.
____________________
E.Michigan(-0.8) +8 (+6.3) (+3.3) at N.Illinois(+2.5)
Last Matchup = 2016 at E.Michigan won by N.Illinois 31-24 as -1 Favs.
Next Game = (E.Michigan = Home vs Ball St) (N.Illinois at Toledo)
Injuries = None
Motivation = A win for E.Michigan would go a long way to get them into a bowl game with 3 winnable games still coming up + C.Michigan who they can beat also. N.Illinois has a tough one coming up next.
Line Movement = N/A
Public = N/A
Money = N/A
Trends
NIL 9-0 SU L9 vs EMICH, won last 4 at Home by avg of almost 30 points.
EMCH is 9-0 ATS (9.00 ppg) since Sep 17, 2016 on the road
EMCH is 16-4 ATS (3.88 ppg) since Nov 27, 2015
NIL is 0-6-1 OU (-10.07 ppg) since Sep 24, 2016 at home
NIL is 4-11-1 OU (-7.13 ppg) since Sep 24, 2016
EMCH is 3-15 OU (-7.32 ppg) since Sep 17, 2016
________________________________________
*Tennessee(-2.7) +5.5 (+8.0) (+3.9) at Kentucky(+2.3)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Tennessee won by Tennessee 49-36 as 14 pt favs.
Next Game = (Tennessee at Home vs S.Miss) (Kentucky at Home vs Mississippi)
Injuries =
(Tennessee - Starting CB Justin Martin is Questionable)
(Tennessee - Starting Center Jashon Robertson is Questionable))
Motivation = Border State Rivalry going back to 1893. Tennessee needs 3 win in last 5 games to become bowl eligible.
Line Movement = Opened at Kentucky -4.5 at Bookmaker and now at -6.
Public = About even so far as of Sunday. 56/44 in favor of Tennessee.
Money =
Trends
Tennessee 31-1 SU since 1985 vs Kentucky and 8-23-1 ATS.
Tennessee 8-1-1 ATS L10 vs Kentucky.
Tennessee 0-7 ATS L7 overall, Under 6-2.
Kentucky is 25% vs Tennessee All Time at 24-79 and lost the L5.
Kentucky has only been a favorite in this series one other time in recent history in 2007 and lost 52-50.
________________________________________
*Rutgers(-2.2) +24 (+7.1) (+15.4) at Michigan(-0.1)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Rutgers won by Michigan 78-0 as -30 favs.
Next Game = (Rutgers play Maryland on a Neutral field) (Michigan plays at Home vs Minnesota)
Injuries = Nothing new.
Motivation = Rutgers need to pull some upsets to make a bowl. Michigan wants to erase a beatdown by Penn St last week.
Line Movement = Opened Michigan -21.5 at Bookmaker and now at -24.
Public = Split as of Sunday.
Money = N/A as of yet.
Trends
Michigan 3-0 ATS vs the Rutgers.
Michigan 0-4 ATS and 0-4 OU L4 at Home.
________________________________________
*Virginia(-0.8) +3 (+1.4) (+6.8) at Pittsburgh(-2.2)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Virginia won by Pittsburgh 45-31 as -3.5 favs.
Next Game = (Virginia at Home vs Georgia Tech) (Pittsburgh has a BYE)
Injuries = Nothing new.
Motivation = With a tough 3 out of 4 games left for Pitt, chances are slim they make it to 6 wins and this might be Virginia's easiest game left and best chance to win #6 and get it out of the way.
Line Movement = None as of Sunday.
Public = Even as of Sunday.
Money = Even as of Sunday.
Trends
Virginia is 10-3 ATS L13 on the Road, 3-10 SU.
Pitt is 7-19 ATS L26 at Home.
________________________________________
*USC(+0.5) -3 (+2.7) (+1.4) at Arizona St(+1.2)
Last Matchup = 2016 at USC won by USC 41-20 as -10 favs.
Next Game = (USC at Home vs Arizona) (Arizona St at Home vs Colorado)
Injuries =
(USC - Starting QB Sam Darnold is Questionable with an ankle injury.)
(USC - Starting CB Iman Marshall is Questionable with a knee injury.)
(USC has a rather long injury list for the season.)
Motivation = USC just got embarassed in a big game. Arizona St would love to get a win at Home vs USC.
Line Movement = None as of Sunday.
Public = 82% on Arizona St as of Sunday
Money = N/A
Trends
USC 0-6 ATS thier L6 games.
USC 3-13-1 OU L17 on the Road.
Arizona St 4-0 ATS their L4 games.
Arizona St 9-3 SUATS L12 at Home.
Arizona St 0-4 OU L4 at Home.
________________________________________
NC State(+2.2) +7.5 (+11.3) (+15) at *Notre Dame(+10.5)
Last Matchup = 2016 at NC State won by NC State 10-3
Next Game = (NC State plays at Home vs Clemson) (Notre Dame plays at Home vs Wake Forest)
Injuries = Nothing new.
Motivation = Big game for both teams. Revenge for last season for Notre Dame.
Line Movement = Opened at Bookmaker Notre Dame -8.5 and now at -7 -115.
Public = 58% Notre Dame as of Sunday.
Money = N/A as of yet.
Trends
NC State 4-0 ATS L4 on the Road, 0-4 OU.
NC State 12-5 ATS L17 on the Road, 4-13 OU.
Notre Dame 0-2 SUATS vs NC State, lost last year and in 2002.
Notre Dame 5-0 SUATS L5 games overall.
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*Penn St(+18.0) +6.5 (-6.4) (-5.9) at Ohio State(+7.6)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Penn St won by Penn St 24-21 as +17.5 dogs.
Next Game = (Penn St plays at Michigan St) (Ohio State plays at Iowa)
Injuries = Nothing new.
Motivation = Big game for both teams.
Line Movement = Opened at Ohio State -5 at Bookmaker and now -6.5.
Public = 63% on Penn St as of Sunday.
Money = N/A yet.
Trends
Penn St 14-2 ATS L16 games overall.
Ohio State 10-2 SUATS since 1993 at Home vs Penn St.
Ohio State 4-0 OU L4 games.
________________________________________Last edited by FUqer; 10-24-17, 01:02 AM.Comment -
Great stuff. I remember the ND Ncst game last year just a mud fest. Came down to a muffed punt. I Like ND Virginia. Michigan and Penn State. And the SkersComment -
Are the Vols sticking with the Freshman at QB now? If so I like their chances better. I played them in the 1st game vs Ga Tech thinking they would play the freshman some and they didn't play him at all, luckily they still covered though at the end.Comment -
Wouldn't touch the Vols. Complete mess. Check your pmComment -
I might pass on this game altogether. I faded Tennessee against Georgia and South Carolina. But I don't trust Kentucky much at -6Comment -
Some more games I got to Monday night and Tuesday morning. I'll prolly collect info for another day and then begin focusing more on specific games and take my time with picks this week.
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Florida St(-2.4) -3 (+2.4) (-2.3) at Boston College(-1.0)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Florida St won by Florida St 45-7 as -21 favs.
Next Game = (Florida St plays at Home vs Syracuse) (Boston College plays at Home vs NC State)
Injuries =
(Florida St - Starting RB Jacques Patrick is OUT for the season)
(Florida St injury list is very long and thier 1st and 3rd string RB's are hurt.)
Motivation = Florida St must win 4 of their last 5 to make a bowl and they still have Clemson and Florida left. Boston College needs two wins and likely will only be favored in 1 remaining game.
Line Movement = Opened at Florida St -3.5 on bookmaker and now at -2.5 -115.
Public = 64% on Florida St as of Monday night.
Money = Possible slight RLM on Boston College.
Trends
Florida St 7-0 SU L7 & 3-4 ATS vs Boston College.
Florida St 0-5-1 ATS OU L6 games.
Florida St 1-9 OU L10 as a Road Fav.
Florida St 0-5-1 OU L6 as a Favorite.
Florida St 2-11 OU L13 on the Road.
Boston College 5-0 ATS L5 games.
Boston College 4-0 ATS L4 as a Dog.
Boston College 1-7 ATS & 0-8 SU L8 games as a Home Dog.
Boston College 4-15-1 OU L20 at Home.
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Tulane(+0.3) +11 (+4.7) (+6.5) at Memphis(+2.0)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Tulane won by Memphis 24-14 as -12.5 favs.
Next Game = (Tulane plays at Home vs Cincy) (Memphis plays at Tulsa)
Injuries = Nothing new.
Motivation = Tulane will need to pull some upsets to make a bowl. Memphis is fighting for the Conference title.
Line Movement = Opened at Memphis -10 on bookmaker and now at -10.5.
Public = 65% on Memphis as of Monday night.
Money = Public and Money appear to be on Memphis.
Trends
Memphis has won the last 10 vs Tulane, all but one by double digits in 2007, 8-2 ATS L10.
Memphis 7-1-1 OU L9 at Home.
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Nebraska(-2.0) +6.5 (+7.3) (+10) at Purdue(+3.3)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Nebraska won by Nebraska 27-14 as 24 point favs.
Next Game = (Nebraska at Home vs Northwestern) (Purdue at Home vs Illinois)
Injuries =
(Purdue - Starting LT Grant Hermanns injured his knee and is OUT.)
Motivation = Both teams got work to do to become bowl eligible. Nebraska coming off a bye week.
Line Movement = Went from Purdue -5.5 to -6.5 from Sunday to Monday night.
Public = 73% on Nebraska as of Monday night.
Money = Early RLM for Purdue as of Monday night.
Trends
Nebraska 2-7 ATS L9 games.
Purdue 1-3 SU and 3-1 ATS vs Nebraska.
Purdue 10-25-1 ATS L36 games at Home.
Purdue 5-0-1 ATS L6 as a Home Fav, 6-0 SU.
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Vanderbilt(-1.4) +6.5 (+10.3) (+10.2) at S.Carolina(+5.9)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Vanderbilt won by S.Carolina 13-10 as +5 dogs.
Next Game = (Vanderbilt plays at Home vs W.Kentucky) ( S.Carolina plays at Georgia)
Motivation = Vanderbilt has to win 3 more games to reach 6 and their remaining schedule isn't that tough. S.Carolina has a big game coming up at Georgia.
Line Movement = Opened S.Carolina -7.5 at bookmaker and now at -6.5.
Public = 62% on S.Carolina as of Monday night.
Money = N/A
Trends
Vanderbilt 0-4 SUATS L4 as a Dog, 4-0 OU.
Vanderbilt 7-1 OU L8 as a Dog.
S.Carolina has won the last 8 vs Vanderbilt, 4-4 ATS.
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Buffalo(+0.7) +3 (+2.6) (+4.2) at Akron(+0.3)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Buffalo won by Buffalo 41-20 as +19.5 dogs.
Next Game = (Buffalo plays at Home vs Bowling Green) (Akron plays at Miami,OH)
Injuries =
(Buffalo - Starting QB Drew Anderson is Questionable with a should injury.
Motivation = Buffalo will likely not make a bowl game, but Akron has a good chance to reach 6 wins.
Line Movement = None yet
Public = 57% on Akron as of Monday night.
Money = Unknown
Trends
Buffalo 6-2 SU L8 vs Akron, 3-3 ATS.
Buffalo 7-1-1 ATs L9 overall.
Buffalo 0-9 OU L9 on the Road.
Akron 0-7 OU L7 at Home.
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Louisville(-2.1) -3 (+6.7) (+7.8) at Wake Forest(+2.6)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Louisville won by Louisville 44-12 as -34.5 favs.
Next Game = (Louisville has a bye) (Wake Forest plays at Notre Dame)
Injuries =
(Louisville - Starting CB Jaire Alexander is Questionable with a knew injury.)
Motivation = Wake Forest will need to pull off an upset or two to make a bowl game.
Line Movement = None yet.
Public = 86% on Louisville as of Monday night.
Money = Unknown as of now.
Trends
Louisville 4-0 SU & 1-3 ATS vs Wake Forest.
Louisville 2-10 ATS L12 games.
Wake Forest 11-3 ATS L14 as a Dog.
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Indiana(-0.9) -4.5 (+1.8) (+4.4) at Maryland(-1.1)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Indiana won by Indiana 42-36 as -3.5 favs.
Next Game = (Indiana plays at Home vs Wisconsin) (Maryland plays Rutgers on a neutral field)
Injuries = Nothing new.
Motivation = Indiana has the better chance to make a bowl.
Line Movement = Opened -4.5 Indiana at Bookmaker and now at -4.
Public = 82% on Indiana as of Tuesday morning.
Money = Possible RLM on Maryland.
Trends
Indiana 1-7 OU L8 on the Road.
Maryland 6-1-1 OU L8 overall.
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New Mexico(-3.9) -2 (+9.9) (+7.6) at Wyoming(+3.0)
Last Matchup = 2016 at New Mexico won by New Mexico 56-35 as +3 dogs.
Next Game = (New Mexico plays at Home vs Utah St) (Wyoming plays at Home vs Colorado St)
Motivation = Important game for Wyoming if they want to reach 6 wins.
Line Movement = Opened Wyoming -4 at Bookmaker and now at New Mexico -2.
Public = 63% on New Mexico as of Tuesday morning.
Money = Big line shift to New Mexico.
Trends
New Mexico 3-0 SU L3 and 4-0 ATS L4 vs Wyoming.
New Mexico 9-23-3 OU L35 as a Road Dog.
New Mexico 1-7 OU L8 overall.
Wyoming 9-2-1 ATS L12 at Home.
Wyoming 4-0 ATS L4 overall.
Wyoming 1-7-1 OU L9 overall.
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Arkansas St(+5.1) -5.5 (-6.0) (-1.8) at New Mexico St(-2.9)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Arkansas St won by Arkansas St 41-22 as -18.5 favs.
Next Game = (Arkansas St plays has a bye)(New Mexico St plays at Texas St)
Injuries =
(New Mexico St - Starting RG Dezmand Candielarie is Questionable.)
(New Mexico St - Starting WR Johnathan Boone is Questionable with a Concussion.)
Motivation = Arkansas St is fighting for a Conference title. New Mexico St has a good shot to get to 6 wins if they get going.
Line Movement = None
Public = 67% on Arkansas St as of Tuesday afternoon.
Money = Unknown
Trends
Arkansas St 4-0 SU L4 & 5-0-1 ATS L6 vs New Mexico St.
New Mexico St 6-1 ATS L7 at Home.
New Mexico St 12-5-1 ATS L18 overall.
New Mexico St 0-5 OU L5 at Home.
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Michigan St(-0.9) -1.5 (+3.5) (+4.3) at Northwestern(+0.6)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Michigan St won by Northwestern 54-40 as +6.5 dogs.
Next Game = (Michigan St at Home vs Penn St) (Northwestern plays at Nebraska)
Injuries = Nothing new.
Motivation = Michigan St has 1 loss and wants to remain in the playoff discussion and conference title hunt and may have revenge on their mind for a Home loss last season to Northwestern. Northwestern need 2 more wins to reach 6 and will prolly be favorites in 2 more games.
Line Movement = Opened at pickem on bookmaker and now at Michigan St -2.
Public = 74% on Michigan St as of Monday night.
Money = Public and Money both appear to be on Mich St early.
Trends
Michigan St 6-2 SU L8 vs Northwestern, 4-4 ATS.
Michigan St 4-0 SUATS L4 at Northwestern.
Northwestern 9-31-1 OU L41 games at Home.
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Texas Tech(-0.1) +20 (+5.2) (+12.2) at Oklahoma(+1.1)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Texas Tech won by Oklahoma 66-59 as -16.5 favs.
Next Game = (Texas Tech plays at Home vs Kansas St) (Oklahoma plays Oklahoma St on the Road)
Injuries =
(Texas Tech - Starting RB Justin Stockton is Questionable with a head injury.)
(Texas Tech - Starting NB Douglas Coleman is Questionable with an ankle injury.)
Motivation = Texas Tech is going to have to pull an upset to get to 6 wins and it would be ashamed if they don't make a bowl game. Oklahoma is fighting for a playoff spot and conference title, but have a tough one up next at Oklahoma St.
Line Movement = Opened at Oklahoma -18 and now at -20.
Public = 61% on Texas Tech as of Monday night.
Money = Possible early RLM on Oklahoma as of Monday night.
Trends
Texas Tech 6-3 ATS & 7-2 OU L9 on the Road.
Oklahoma 5-1 ATS L6 at Home vs Texas Tech.
Oklahoma 0-4 ATS L4 games overall.
Oklahoma 6-1 ATS L7 at Home.
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San Diego St(+0.2) -9 (-4.9) (-18.1) at Hawaii(-5.7)
Last Matchup = 2016 at San Diego won by San Diego 55-0 as -20 favs.
Next Game = (San Diego St plays at San Jose St) (Hawaii plays at UNLV)
Injuries = Nothing new.
Motivation = With two losses in a row San Diego St has dug a hole in the MWC, while Hawaii has been awful at Home and has really no chance at making a bowl.
Line Movement = Opened at San Diego St -9 on bookmaker and now at -9.5.
Public = 77% on San Diego St as of Monday night.
Money = Not many touching Hawaii.
Trends
San Diego St 18-2-1 ATS vs Hawaii.
Hawaii 4-15 ATS L19 at Home.
Hawaii 0-5 ATS L5 overall.
Hawaii 38-19-1 OU since Oct 25 2008 at Home.
Hawaii 12-3-1 OU L16 as a Dog.
________________________________________Comment -
Week 9 Plays
ยค E.Michigan +7 -110 (Bovada)
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Season = 49-37 for +13.03
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