HG's Football Thread

HeeluvaGuy · 11-05-16, 08:33 AM

Probably my last full update for this weekend: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Current home dog plays are:

12:00 Northwestern +6 (does not qualify below +6)
3:30 Duke +12 (does not qualify below +12)
4:00 SMU +3 (qualifies as long as SMU is a dog)
5:30 North Texas +20 (qualifies down to +16)
7:30 Kentucky +2 (qualifies as long as Kentucky is a dog)
8:00 LSU +7 (qualifies down to +6)

Best of luck today everyone!

HeeluvaGuy · 11-05-16, 09:45 AM

FYI, if the Northwestern line stays at 5.5, it is not an official home dog play.

HeeluvaGuy · 11-05-16, 10:44 AM

NW +6 is official for me. Gotta cut this off at some point.

HeeluvaGuy · 11-05-16, 12:50 PM

Duke will not be an official home underdog play.

HeeluvaGuy · 11-05-16, 01:54 PM

Well, it looks like Duke will be a play. Line is +12.5.

HeeluvaGuy · 11-07-16, 11:29 AM

Terrible weekend. Just atrocious.

I haven't had time to catch up on total results and start in next week, but I will as soon as possible. I have a busy week so it might not be until Thursday that I'm caught up. I'll try to run the Tuesday game before then if I can.

HeeluvaGuy · 11-08-16, 11:41 AM

Updated with Tuesday games only: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...QY8RxjSgf8f0CY

doubledime · 11-09-16, 04:21 PM

Thank you

HeeluvaGuy · 11-10-16, 09:52 AM

All up to date for this weekend: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I'll catch up on the results in a little bit, probably with some comments.

doubledime · 11-10-16, 05:20 PM

HeeluvaGuy · 11-10-16, 08:23 PM

That was a rough week last week. Hope you didn't get roughed up too badly DD.

doubledime · 11-11-16, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

That was a rough week last week. Hope you didn't get roughed up too badly DD.

Your info is helpful and I'm using it with some of the things I do so keep it coming.

HeeluvaGuy · 11-12-16, 02:13 AM

So here are the updated results, including last week: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Home underdog plays went 2-6, which was rough. All plays were 56-60, which wasn't a total disaster, but not where we have been. We could be hitting a stretch where the model is losing utility (rivalries, post-season prospects affecting motivation, etc.). I have always found models to be most helpful for the middle 50% of the season where there is a certain sense of "normal." We're outside of that now, so my suggestion is to use caution going forward.

Updated model with home underdog plays coming next...

HeeluvaGuy · 11-12-16, 02:16 AM

Here is the model updated with lines through Friday night: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Home underdog plays are:

Kansas +10.5
Syracuse +7
Memphis +3

If you're wondering, this is not the fewest number of plays we've had this year. That was Week 7 (2). My hope is that we're seeing quality over quantity.

Best of luck this weekend!

doubledime · 11-12-16, 07:42 AM

doubledime · 11-18-16, 11:11 PM

Your totals are on fire this week

HeeluvaGuy · 11-19-16, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by doubledime

Your totals are on fire this week

Haha. Yeah. Makes me wonder if they are fade material now. Been busy at work and have been slow to update this week. Everything is up right now. Gonna update current lines as soon as I can this morning.

NCAAF 2016-17

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rcizHLGU1CI5S6zxreDozT1SAxWdaQY8RxjSgf8f0CY

Best of luck today!