HG's Football Thread

[HeeluvaGuy]

I hoped that I could have an all sports thread, but it looks like these boards don't work that way. This will be my thread for all football picks (mostly CFB, but a little NFL and possibly CFL too). Here's the link to the thread I started on the MLB forum:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3293422-heeluvaguys-mlb-ncaaf-nfl-ncaab-cfl-others-picks.html

I will update my record from that thread as soon as I can. I had to put my dog this week after a month long illness so I have been a little distracted.

All plays are 1 unit unless otherwise noted, and all picks will have a writeup so you can see where I'm coming from.

Good of luck to everyone!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Arizona St. tt o40 -110 (.5u)


Last weekend, the Sun Devils ran up and down the field against Texas Tech. Tonight they travel to San Antonio to play UTSA in the Alamodome. The Roadrunners have given up over 40 points in 4 of the 6 games they have ever played against P5 teams. Arizona St plays very fast (#2 last season in offensive plays per game), and I look for them to play even faster indoors on turf. Todd Graham is a Texas native, so he'll no doubt be looking to impress against an inferior foe. My strong suspicion is that ASU covers the 3 TD spread here, but just in case the defense doesn't rebound after last weekend's track meet, I'll stick with the team total. 6 TDs is well within reach for this ASU offense. Slight concern is that the PAC 12 opener against Cal is on deck next week, but Graham will likely want to see his 1st year starter at QB keep the momentum going with the offense.

[thekoreanmang]

On it. Lit's git it!

[HeeluvaGuy]

On it. Lit's git it!

Nice to see you mang.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Arizona St. tt o40 -110 (.5u)

This line moved to 41.5 and then ASU proceeded to suck out loud.

0-1 (-.55u) (I will add this to the results from the other thread very soon)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Two plays for 9/17:

3:30 FIU/UMass u47.5 -105
By any metric, these are two of the worst offenses in the nation. Points per game? UMass 7.0 (#128), FIU 13.5 (#124). YPP? UMass 2.7 (#128), FIU 5.2 (#94). YPPT? UMass 22.1 (#122), FIU 26.0 (#128). They are also both in the bottom half of the nation in plays per game (UMass 56.5 (#124), FIU 68 (#82)). Neither defense is great (both in the bottom half/third so far), but they should be sufficient given how bad the offenses are. The under is a perfect 4-0 in all of their games, and only one has gone over 47. Last season these two played to a 24-14 final. It may not be a factor, but there is some wind in the forecast that likely won’t help these feeble offenses move the ball. Here’s what others project: Massey 45, PW 31, PP 49, Steele 45, Powers 45, GS 44.

7:00 Army -3.5 -105
Both of these teams want to run the ball, so this one will likely hinge on who can do the better job of stopping the run. Through the first two games of the season, Army has held their opponents to 3.6 ypc, slightly below their season averages. UTEP, by contrast, is allowing 4 ypc, which is a tad higher than what their opponents are averaging. It’s a little tough to gauge the UTEP team at this point because they have played a rival in New Mexico St and the big dog in Austin. I look for UTEP to be a little beaten up after the beatdown they took against the Horns, while Army had a pretty easy time with Rice at home. It also helps that UTEP has struggled against the option under HC Sean Kugler (though with anew DC this season). Army has 5 takeaways to 0 turnovers so far in the early season. If they keep that up, they should cover this line. Added bonus: there should be a decent contingent cheering for the Black Knights with Ft. Bliss being in El Paso. Others say: Massey -7, PW -17, PS +7, PP -8, Steele +3, Powers -1, GS-10.

[HeeluvaGuy]

CFB record to date (including picks from baseball thread):

2-3 (-0.7)

[doubledime]

Good luck today. I am very close to posting the U Mass under myself.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good luck today. I am very close to posting the U Mass under myself.

I like when we're on the same page.

[doubledime]

I like when we're on the same page.

I was waiting for it to go up a bit and posted it at 49. Good luck to both of us!

By the way, you posted early in the morning. Just coming in or just waking up?

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm on the left coast, so I was just finishing up looking at match ups. Lots of games that I was close on, but we still don't have a lot of data on the season.

[doubledime]

I'm on the left coast, so I was just finishing up looking at match ups. Lots of games that I was close on, but we still don't have a lot of data on the season.

Midwest here. That's one of the problems I have with FB. Relatively limited number of games compared to MLB, NHL and NBA which also limits data. Plus the fact that some of these early games have strong schools teeing off on some weak one which throws off the stats also.

[doubledime]

HG I am thinking about pulling the trigger on Duke/NW under, any thoughts?

[HeeluvaGuy]

HG I am thinking about pulling the trigger on Duke/NW under, any thoughts?

Sorry. I couldn't tell you why, but that's not one I considered.

[doubledime]

Sorry. I couldn't tell you why, but that's not one I considered.

Thanks Just going to wait and see what happens with the day games. I do not want to push it this early in the season.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Two plays for 9/17:

3:30 FIU/UMass u47.5 -105

7:00 Army -3.5 -105

2-0 day. CFB record now:

4-3 (+1.3u)

[doubledime]

2-0 day. CFB record now:

4-3 (+1.3u)

That was easy, why can't they all be that easy!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

That was easy, why can't they all be that easy!!

No doubt, but I wish it could be a little easier getting there. It always takes me forever to get through the card early in the season. I ended up with 18 games circled, and narrowed those down to these plays. The time was well-spent getting to these two, however. My 18 circled plays went 6-12.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sunday Night Football player prop:

E. Lacy receiving yards o12.5 +100 (.5u)
Lacy has gone over this number in 25 of his 47 regular season games. In his 6 games against Minnesota he has had 13+ receiving yards 4 times. Last week DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews had 76 receiving yards against the Vikings.

ETA: Vikes allowed 42.5 RB receiving yards per game last season.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sunday Night Football player prop:

E. Lacy receiving yards o12.5 +100 (.5u)

Missed this one last week. Something like just the 7th game Lacy hasn't caught a pass in his career.

I need to track down my NFL prop record from the other thread, but 0-1 on these here.

[HeeluvaGuy]

One play so far for 9/24:

3:30 Miss St/UMass u47.5 -108
Really odd matchup here. After playing at LSU last week, Mississippi St travels to Boston to play UMass in Gillette Stadium. My bold prediction here is that UMass does not score a TD in this one. Neither of these offenses is very good. The Bulldogs average just 22.3 ppg (#104) and have an offensive yards per point average of 17 (#105). They are converting just 24.3% of their third downs (#115), and rank 88^th nationally with 68 plays per game. The Mississippi St offense will face a passable UMass defense that is allowing 21 ppg (#50) with a 16.2 defensive YPPT average. Teams are converting just 31.1% of their third downs against the Minutemen (#29). Neither of Mississippi St’s QBs has been great so far this season, and from some of this week’s press conferences, it sounds like the coaching staff would like to get the 3^rd string QB in the game if they get a comfortable margin. So while Mississippi St will score some points, it’s unlikely they will pile them on too heavily. On the other side of the ball, UMass is terrible offensively. The Minutemen are dead last in ppg, and the rest of their offensive stats are equally unimpressive. Last week Andrew Ford started in place of injured Ross Comis. It’s not clear who starts this week, but it doesn’t really matter. UMass has allowed 14 sacks already this season and has zero running game to stop the Mississippi St pass rush (MSU boasts the SEC’s sack leader). It’s gonna be a long day for the UMass offense. Others say: Steele 38, PW 48, PP 43, GS 45, Powers 47, Massey 48, Dunkel 53.

[doubledime]

One play so far for 9/24:

3:30 Miss St/UMass u47.5 -108
Really odd matchup here. After playing at LSU last week, Mississippi St travels to Boston to play UMass in Gillette Stadium. My bold prediction here is that UMass does not score a TD in this one. Neither of these offenses is very good. The Bulldogs average just 22.3 ppg (#104) and have an offensive yards per point average of 17 (#105). They are converting just 24.3% of their third downs (#115), and rank 88^th nationally with 68 plays per game. The Mississippi St offense will face a passable UMass defense that is allowing 21 ppg (#50) with a 16.2 defensive YPPT average. Teams are converting just 31.1% of their third downs against the Minutemen (#29). Neither of Mississippi St’s QBs has been great so far this season, and from some of this week’s press conferences, it sounds like the coaching staff would like to get the 3^rd string QB in the game if they get a comfortable margin. So while Mississippi St will score some points, it’s unlikely they will pile them on too heavily. On the other side of the ball, UMass is terrible offensively. The Minutemen are dead last in ppg, and the rest of their offensive stats are equally unimpressive. Last week Andrew Ford started in place of injured Ross Comis. It’s not clear who starts this week, but it doesn’t really matter. UMass has allowed 14 sacks already this season and has zero running game to stop the Mississippi St pass rush (MSU boasts the SEC’s sack leader). It’s gonna be a long day for the UMass offense. Others say: Steele 38, PW 48, PP 43, GS 45, Powers 47, Massey 48, Dunkel 53.

Great write up. Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks DD. Still looking at a few others. Will add 1 to 3 more before the afternoon games. Good luck to you today!

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Army -14 -102
Much like Army’s game against UTEP, this is a matchup of two teams who want to run the ball. And just like last week, I like the team that is better at stopping the run. Army is #2 in the nation in rushing yards per game at 365.3 with a ypc average of 5.3 (#24). Buffalo’s rush defense allows 238.5 yards per game (#114) and a 4.9 ypc average (#103). Army ranks #2 in the nation in time of possession. Buffalo is #127 in that stat. On defense, Army is allowing just 92.7 yards per game on the ground (#16), with an average per carry of 4.1 (T74). Army averages 41.7 ppg and allows just 13.7. Buffalo averages 15 ppg, and allows 30. Army is +7 in turnovers and has yet to give the ball away this season. Army is 3-0 SUATS. Buffalo is 0-2 SUATS with a loss to Albany. Others say: Lawrence -10, PW -27, PS -17, PP -25, GS -18, WP -18, Powers -13, Steele -25, Massey -10, Dunkel -26.5.

[HeeluvaGuy]

3:30 Pitt/UNC o66.5 -105
This game pits two offensive strengths against two defensive weaknesses. Pitt is averaging over 100 ypg rushing than their opponents are allowing (239 vs. 137). Defensively, UNC is giving up 43 more yards rushing than their opponents are averaging. Pitt’s ypc average is 5.0, and UNC’s ypc allowed is 4.9. So it’s safe to say that Pitt will look to run the ball early and often against a UNC run defense that has yet to show it can slow down a decent ground attack. And James Conner is far better than decent. When the Tar Heels have the ball, they have an advantage through the air. Carolina is averaging 9 yards per pass attempt (#21), while Pitt is allowing 8.8 yards per attempt (#118) and is surrendering 79 yards more per game through the air than its opponents have averaged. The end result of all of this is that Pitt and UNC average 36 (#47) and 42.7 (#21) points per game while allowing 30.3 (#89) and 28 (#79). FWIW, the average points scored in a CFB game this season is 64.6. Others say: PW 61, PP 70, GS 67, Powers 69, Steele 73, Massey 69, Dunkel 76. GL!

[Mike Huntertz]

I'll tail the Pitt over.
GL

[Saluki09]

Miss St and Umass total up to 49.5 😕
I got it at 47.5 with you, GL to us 👍

[HeeluvaGuy]

Miss St and Umass total up to 49.5 
I got it at 47.5 with you, GL to us 

I don't have an explanation for the line move. It dipped down to 47 for a while this am. Out of our hands now.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'll tail the Pitt over.
GL

So easy, huh?

[HeeluvaGuy]

One play so far for 9/24:

3:30 Miss St/UMass u47.5 -108

This one went off the rails with 2 minutes to go in the first half. It was 7-6 up to that point.

3:30 Pitt/UNC o66.5 -105

I guess this makes up for the under. Covered with :02 left in the game.

<br>
<br>
1-1 (-.08u) today with 1 pending.

Overall:
5-4 (+1.22u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Army -14 -102

Not only didn't cover; lost straight up.

5-5 (+.14u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

10/1:

1:00 Buffalo +19 -108
In a game that probably ranks somewhere right around dead last in anyone’s “Must See” list, I think there is some value on the Buffalo Bulls getting 19 points against Boston College in Chestnut Hill. The Bulls are coming off of a SU win against Army where they were a 13-point underdog. After trailing by 10 at the half, the Bulls rallied with 2 TDs in the last 9 minutes of the game to tie it up and win in OT. One of the keys to that win was RS Freshman QB Tyree Jackson’s ability to run the ball when necessary. This kid is a load at 6’7”, 245 lbs. Jackson’s ability to extend plays and get an extra yard or two could come in handy against the stout BC rush defense. (Another Bull to watch for is CB Boise Ross, who is on the Thorpe watchlist.) Offensively, neither of these teams is very good, but BC is worse than the stats indicate. The Eagles are averaging 20.5 ppg, however, that number is inflated by a 42 point outburst against FCS Wagner last weekend (in a game BC failed to cover at home). BC’s rushing stats are also inflated because of the Wagner game, which is significant because Buffalo looks bad on paper against the run. (Buffalo’s rush stats are also a product of the Bulls having faced Army and Nevada.) Neither of these teams has shown much big play potential, and both play a pretty deliberate pace (66 plays per game for Buffalo, 62.5 for BC). Yes, BC’s defense is very good, but the Eagles are surrendering 20.7 ppg, and their defensive YPPT is 11.1 (#114). A FG or a TD by Buffalo should be enough to cover this number on a day that is forecast to be wet (and BC has Clemson coming in on Friday). My line for this is 7. Others say: ML 16, PW 10, PP 14, PS 14, Steele 15, GS 24, Massey 17.

[doubledime]

10/1:

1:00 Buffalo +19 -108
In a game that probably ranks somewhere right around dead last in anyone’s “Must See” list, I think there is some value on the Buffalo Bulls getting 19 points against Boston College in Chestnut Hill. The Bulls are coming off of a SU win against Army where they were a 13-point underdog. After trailing by 10 at the half, the Bulls rallied with 2 TDs in the last 9 minutes of the game to tie it up and win in OT. One of the keys to that win was RS Freshman QB Tyree Jackson’s ability to run the ball when necessary. This kid is a load at 6’7”, 245 lbs. Jackson’s ability to extend plays and get an extra yard or two could come in handy against the stout BC rush defense. (Another Bull to watch for is CB Boise Ross, who is on the Thorpe watchlist.) Offensively, neither of these teams is very good, but BC is worse than the stats indicate. The Eagles are averaging 20.5 ppg, however, that number is inflated by a 42 point outburst against FCS Wagner last weekend (in a game BC failed to cover at home). BC’s rushing stats are also inflated because of the Wagner game, which is significant because Buffalo looks bad on paper against the run. (Buffalo’s rush stats are also a product of the Bulls having faced Army and Nevada.) Neither of these teams has shown much big play potential, and both play a pretty deliberate pace (66 plays per game for Buffalo, 62.5 for BC). Yes, BC’s defense is very good, but the Eagles are surrendering 20.7 ppg, and their defensive YPPT is 11.1 (#114). A FG or a TD by Buffalo should be enough to cover this number on a day that is forecast to be wet (and BC has Clemson coming in on Friday). My line for this is 7. Others say: ML 16, PW 10, PP 14, PS 14, Steele 15, GS 24, Massey 17.

As always great analysis. Let's get it!

[HeeluvaGuy]

3:30 Ball St -4 (-102)
Dating back to last season, Northern Illinois has lost 7 straight. They are without presumptive starting QB Drew Hare, and last week the Huskies lost to the Western Illinois Leathernecks. This week they head to Muncie, Indiana to face a surprising Ball State team ready to snap a 7-game losing streak to NIU. The analysis here is pretty simple. Ball State is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and runs the ball a lot. NIU is allowing teams to average 5 ypc and nearly 30 rushing yards above their season average. On the other side of the ball, Ball State allows just 99 yards per game on the ground and is tied for 3^rd nationally with 17 sacks. If you remove the inflated rushing totals NIU ran up against the Leathernecks, the Huskies are averaging just 3.8 yards per carry against FBS teams. Ball State is 4-0 ATS; NIU is 0-4 SU/ATS. There is a rivalry aspect here, which may be a reason to stay away. But I think that Ball State has the team and motivation to cover this number against an NIU team that is reeling. My line is 14. Others say: ML 1 (NIU), PW 14, PP 7, PS 2 (NIU), Steele 1 (NIU), GS 3 (NIU), Massey 2.

[HeeluvaGuy]

3:30 Wake Forest +13.5 (-105)
Not a big writeup here. NC State hasn’t played anyone at all so far and still managed to lose to East Carolina. Wake’s schedule hasn’t been great, but the Deacs are 4-0 with road wins at Duke and Indiana. The key will be how well Wake’s rush defense can keep the Wolfpack in check. The Demon Deacons are allowing just 88 yards per game on the ground, while their opponents average 162. If they can maintain that kind of control on the ground, I like our chances to stay within the number here. My line for this game is 2. Others say: ML 16, PW 1, PP 8, PS 13, Steele 10, GS 3, Massey 7.