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  • HeeluvaGuy
    SBR MVP
    • 02-15-14
    • 3449

    #71
    Probably my last full update for this weekend: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

    Current home dog plays are:

    12:00 Northwestern +6 (does not qualify below +6)
    3:30 Duke +12 (does not qualify below +12)
    4:00 SMU +3 (qualifies as long as SMU is a dog)
    5:30 North Texas +20 (qualifies down to +16)
    7:30 Kentucky +2 (qualifies as long as Kentucky is a dog)
    8:00 LSU +7 (qualifies down to +6)


    Best of luck today everyone!
    Comment
    • HeeluvaGuy
      SBR MVP
      • 02-15-14
      • 3449

      #72
      FYI, if the Northwestern line stays at 5.5, it is not an official home dog play.
      Comment
      • HeeluvaGuy
        SBR MVP
        • 02-15-14
        • 3449

        #73
        NW +6 is official for me. Gotta cut this off at some point.
        Comment
        • HeeluvaGuy
          SBR MVP
          • 02-15-14
          • 3449

          #74
          Duke will not be an official home underdog play.
          Comment
          • HeeluvaGuy
            SBR MVP
            • 02-15-14
            • 3449

            #75
            Well, it looks like Duke will be a play. Line is +12.5.

            Comment
            • HeeluvaGuy
              SBR MVP
              • 02-15-14
              • 3449

              #76
              Terrible weekend. Just atrocious.

              I haven't had time to catch up on total results and start in next week, but I will as soon as possible. I have a busy week so it might not be until Thursday that I'm caught up. I'll try to run the Tuesday game before then if I can.
              Comment
              • HeeluvaGuy
                SBR MVP
                • 02-15-14
                • 3449

                #77
                Updated with Tuesday games only: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...QY8RxjSgf8f0CY
                Comment
                • doubledime
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 04-22-09
                  • 9751

                  #78
                  Thank you
                  Comment
                  • HeeluvaGuy
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-15-14
                    • 3449

                    #79
                    All up to date for this weekend: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

                    I'll catch up on the results in a little bit, probably with some comments.
                    Comment
                    • doubledime
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 04-22-09
                      • 9751

                      #80
                      Comment
                      • HeeluvaGuy
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-15-14
                        • 3449

                        #81
                        That was a rough week last week. Hope you didn't get roughed up too badly DD.
                        Comment
                        • doubledime
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 04-22-09
                          • 9751

                          #82
                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                          That was a rough week last week. Hope you didn't get roughed up too badly DD.
                          Your info is helpful and I'm using it with some of the things I do so keep it coming.
                          Comment
                          • HeeluvaGuy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-15-14
                            • 3449

                            #83
                            So here are the updated results, including last week: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

                            Home underdog plays went 2-6, which was rough. All plays were 56-60, which wasn't a total disaster, but not where we have been. We could be hitting a stretch where the model is losing utility (rivalries, post-season prospects affecting motivation, etc.). I have always found models to be most helpful for the middle 50% of the season where there is a certain sense of "normal." We're outside of that now, so my suggestion is to use caution going forward.

                            Updated model with home underdog plays coming next...
                            Comment
                            • HeeluvaGuy
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-15-14
                              • 3449

                              #84
                              Here is the model updated with lines through Friday night: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

                              Home underdog plays are:

                              Kansas +10.5
                              Syracuse +7
                              Memphis +3


                              If you're wondering, this is not the fewest number of plays we've had this year. That was Week 7 (2). My hope is that we're seeing quality over quantity.

                              Best of luck this weekend!
                              Comment
                              • doubledime
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 04-22-09
                                • 9751

                                #85
                                Comment
                                • doubledime
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 04-22-09
                                  • 9751

                                  #86
                                  Your totals are on fire this week
                                  Comment
                                  • HeeluvaGuy
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-15-14
                                    • 3449

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by doubledime
                                    Your totals are on fire this week
                                    Haha. Yeah. Makes me wonder if they are fade material now. Been busy at work and have been slow to update this week. Everything is up right now. Gonna update current lines as soon as I can this morning.



                                    Best of luck today!
                                    Comment
                                    • HeeluvaGuy
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-15-14
                                      • 3449

                                      #88
                                      Here are my lines for this week. I've been pretty bad about keeping everything updated (college basketball has consumed a lot of my free time).



                                      Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!
                                      Comment
                                      • doubledime
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 04-22-09
                                        • 9751

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                        Here are my lines for this week. I've been pretty bad about keeping everything updated (college basketball has consumed a lot of my free time).



                                        Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!
                                        Thanks HG
                                        Comment
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