UFC on Fox 4: Shogun vs. Vera

[MMAbetMASTA]

Yeah, I really like Varner at evens. Also on Nam for a small play. Might go small on Yaya or pass that fight, as Grispi tends to be gassed out in the 3rd and would be vulnerable to submissions. But I think Grispi can win the first 2.

About Manny, I think if he gets a hold of Omigawa, he can take the fight to the ground. He knows how to handle Japanese judokas. But I don't know if he'll decide to implement his judo. Karo would have...

But yeah, I do give Manny the striking advantage because of his powerful over-hand right and Omigawa's poor striking defense.

I agree with it all, but its hard for me to say with confidence that any of that is gonna play out true in the fight... On apaper I envision manny being a bit better everywhere, but against a vet like omigawa I don't know that manny's style is something that can really take omigawa out of his element, you know? I just can't pull the trigger on this now at the current oddds, a bit too juicy for me.. Gonna hate myself if he wins which he prob will..

[gabe]

I agree with it all, but its hard for me to say with confidence that any of that is gonna play out true in the fight... On apaper I envision manny being a bit better everywhere, but against a vet like omigawa I don't know that manny's style is something that can really take omigawa out of his element, you know? I just can't pull the trigger on this now at the current oddds, a bit too juicy for me.. Gonna hate myself if he wins which he prob will..

He's been training his ass off, going from gym to gym, put in time in the 209

+

He's fighting at home in front of everyone he knows

+

He's getting a stylistic match-up in Omigawa that should heavily favor him

=

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[MMAbetMASTA]

He's been training his ass off, going from gym to gym, put in time in the 209

+

He's fighting at home in front of everyone he knows

+

He's getting a stylistic match-up in Omigawa that should heavily favor him

=

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

word... good points we'll see, might go with him it would just burn if I lost on that line..

[gabe]

Machida weighing in at 201? wtf? why would he cut the extra weight? I've always thought he would be able to make 185... If he loses, I think he will drop. Hope Bader's size doesn't help him grind Machida... Bader is def juicing, right?

[Grabaka]

I agree with it all, but its hard for me to say with confidence that any of that is gonna play out true in the fight... On apaper I envision manny being a bit better everywhere, but against a vet like omigawa I don't know that manny's style is something that can really take omigawa out of his element, you know? I just can't pull the trigger on this now at the current oddds, a bit too juicy for me.. Gonna hate myself if he wins which he prob will..

Omigawa is my cashcow. I havent win more on a fighter than Omi. I actually have 2 studio monitors won by Omigawa. I can afford to lose on him but as you said i like him at +140. IMO Omigawa's heart might win the fight.
GL to you too bro.

[TheCalculator]

Bader is def juicing, right?

YES.

[GunShard]

[Vaughany]

YES.

Bader has always been huge though, he was like that years ago

[PunisherIND]

Link Not Working - Removed-)

[Sato]

I agree with Swick, Machida and Rua

[bjpenn85]

danny can write!!

[sideloaded]

Vera is getting fu-ked up in this fight

[Rubber Guard]

anyone throwing flyer money on Prado?

[Crassus]

anyone throwing flyer money on Prado?

Odds are way off in my opinion. He needs to be around +500 for it to be worth it, ya know?

EDIT: Whoops! he is there. Yeah that's not a terrible bet. Though I think Davis at under -800 is a total steal. Guy's gonna beast tonight.

[Julian1221]

Swick Shogun Machida

[Rubber Guard]

Odds are way off in my opinion. He needs to be around +500 for it to be worth it, ya know?

EDIT: Whoops! he is there. Yeah that's not a terrible bet. Though I think Davis at under -800 is a total steal. Guy's gonna beast tonight.

Not understanding. On one end it isn't a terrible bet. On the other anything under -800 for Davis is a steal?

Phil will probably wrestle **** him. But seems odd the UFC brought this guy up to fight Davis on short notice. He has no name value. He seems to have a watchable style and is undefeated with only 3 years old training. So perhaps they are actually trying to make a name for Prado off of Davis' name??

Bottom line is the man is 6'4. Has most all wins by 1st round KO. Trains under Nogs so he has some sort of ground game or at least defense. And he's young and knows no better at this point. He has nothing to lose.

What I find interesting is Lil Nog stuffed many of Phil's TD attempts. He has at the very least good info for Prado coming into this fight.

Lose/Lose for Phil. Win/Win for Prado.

All of this said I see +550 as worth a shot. Phil's striking is crap. It is BELOW average. Not that he will be looking to strike any.

In the end Phil probably takes him down when he wants. But look at these young ass Brazilians who had no experience vs. UFC caliber guys yet came in beastly. Charles Oliveria, Edson Barboza, Erick Silva....

[PunisherIND]

phil ITD -171 is the play for me. he will get the sub tonight.

[Crassus]

Not understanding. On one end it isn't a terrible bet. On the other anything under -800 for Davis is a steal?

Phil will probably wrestle **** him. But seems odd the UFC brought this guy up to fight Davis on short notice. He has no name value. He seems to have a watchable style and is undefeated with only 3 years old training. So perhaps they are actually trying to make a name for Prado off of Davis' name??

Bottom line is the man is 6'4. Has most all wins by 1st round KO. Trains under Nogs so he has some sort of ground game or at least defense. And he's young and knows no better at this point. He has nothing to lose.

What I find interesting is Lil Nog stuffed many of Phil's TD attempts. He has at the very least good info for Prado coming into this fight.

Lose/Lose for Phil. Win/Win for Prado.

All of this said I see +550 as worth a shot. Phil's striking is crap. It is BELOW average. Not that he will be looking to strike any.

In the end Phil probably takes him down when he wants. But look at these young ass Brazilians who had no experience vs. UFC caliber guys yet came in beastly. Charles Oliveria, Edson Barboza, Erick Silva....

It's not a terrible bet if you don't believe in Phil Davis as much as I do, which I doubt you do given your skepticism in the post.

Prado has a watchable style because he's been facing absolute nobodies. I've posted their combined record and it was pretty bad, something ridiculous.

Prado is NOT 6'4 2:37, he's shorter than Nogueira who is 6'3 on a good day. I've watched his last three fights and his ground game looks...well it looks pretty bad to be honest. Even if he does knock Phil Davis down, Davis will be able to reverse fairly easily.

Lil Nog stuffed a decent amount of Phil's takedowns and Lil Nog was still unable to beat him. Lil Nog is a far superior striker than Prado.

Phil's striking is NOT crap it's fairly decent. He's got some of the best striking defense in the UFC, he's a phenomenal athlete whose had a good deal of time to train. Also, Phil will probably finish this. He's got an excellent submission game and needs to win excitingly to get back on the main card. Does Prado have a chance? Sure. Not much of one in my opinion though.

[PunisherIND]

It's not a terrible bet if you don't believe in Phil Davis as much as I do, which I doubt you do given your skepticism in the post.

Prado has a watchable style because he's been facing absolute nobodies. I've posted their combined record and it was pretty bad, something ridiculous.

Prado is NOT 6'4 2:37, he's shorter than Nogueira who is 6'3 on a good day. I've watched his last three fights and his ground game looks...well it looks pretty bad to be honest. Even if he does knock Phil Davis down, Davis will be able to reverse fairly easily.

Lil Nog stuffed a decent amount of Phil's takedowns and Lil Nog was still unable to beat him. Lil Nog is a far superior striker than Prado.

Phil's striking is NOT crap it's fairly decent. He's got some of the best striking defense in the UFC, he's a phenomenal athlete whose had a good deal of time to train. Also, Phil will probably finish this. He's got an excellent submission game and needs to win excitingly to get back on the main card. Does Prado have a chance? Sure. Not much of one in my opinion though.

imo, prado's only chance is if phil underestimated him during camp, which, i dont think is the case. only speculation, but phils attitude, wrestling background and work ethic, leads me to believe he takes every opponent seriously and will be prepared to keep this fight on the ground and work his sub wrestling.

[Beelzebubzy]

I just dont want Phil to start standing and trading. I want him to school everyone with wrestling. He is like the black mans weidman without less athletic abilty

[zoo youk]

what time do under cards start on fuel?

[BigD46]

I did two parlays for tonight's card

3 Team Parlay #259838740 (Placed by Web)Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
UFC on Fox 4 -Staples Center, Los Angeles, United States
Both Must Fight For Action.
(5200) Ulysses "Useless" Gomez -180 Sat@6:00p
Competitor: (5201) John MoragaMixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
UFC on Fox 4 -Staples Center, Los Angeles, United States
Both Must Fight For Action.
(5206) Cole "Magrinho" Miller -135 Sat@8:30p
Competitor: (5207) Nam PhanMixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
UFC on Fox 4 -Staples Center, Los Angeles, United States
Both Must Fight For Action.
(8614) Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon -115 Sat@9:30p
Competitor: (8615) Jamie "C-4" Varner

+

2 Team Parlay #259838582 (Placed by Web)Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
UFC on Fox 4 -Staples Center, Los Angeles, United States
Both Must Fight For Action.
(8616) Mauricio "Shogun" Rua -400 Sat@11:00p
Competitor: (8617) Brandon "The Truth" VeraMixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
UFC on Fox 4 -Staples Center, Los Angeles, United States
Both Must Fight For Action.
(8614) Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida -360 Sat@10:30p
Competitor: (8615) Ryan "Darth" Bader

BOL to y'all.

[Beelzebubzy]

what time do under cards start on fuel?

5pm

[PunisherIND]

moraga by decision +270... looks good.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Ticket#:72384674 Aug 04 05:30 PM

INTERNET / -1

Aug 04 04:49 PM

MU

STRAIGHT BET [24038] M GAMBURYAN -170 (M OMIGAWA vrs M GAMBURYAN)

85 / 50

-----------------

All I got for right now, went with my gut on this... Hope Gabe and all you Armenian backers are right tonight with this one!!!

If this comes through I'm adding small plays on yahya and nam, that'll prob be it... Unfortunately no over / unders came up on my books, as I had my eye on a few that I think would have hit (manny / omig over, yahya / grispi over, and jlau / varner under are solid imo but really juicy so who knows if I would have pulled the trigger and paid the juice..)

GL tonight everyone!!

[NunyaBidness]

moraga by decision +270... looks good.

good find.

[Rubber Guard]

Damn, Swick by TKO/KO was +350 all last night. Went all the way down to +253 now. Still decent value. D. Johnson said its a 50/50 fight but it 100% won't go to a decision. Maybe Swick won't come out swing though after such a layoff.

[Beelzebubzy]

Swick by TKO is a great bet, should play out the same way as Saunders/Swick

[Rubber Guard]

Also I like +600 Swick.DJ FOTN.


Swick is a UFC favorite and is coming off a long layoff. His grandfather also died just last week. I can see the whole rest of the main card to be quick fights or in Machida's case a boring one if he chooses to make it that kind of fight.

[zoo youk]

what a way to start the card

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

night night

[illmatick]

Moraga too easy. Even the closer was a steal.

[PunisherIND]

impressive. mad that i threw a little something on the decision prop.

[Vaughany]

Cant watch any of the pre-lims over here..bullshiiit

[PunisherIND]

Fuel tv website maybe?