Hougigo's boxing/MMA picks

MD · 12-22-12, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

MD, more then often I like your picks.

To be honest, I think you are one of the sharper people here.

Can you explain this notion of "value" to me ?

MMA seems to me to be a highly variable sport, its the reason why I only bet on it and I dont dare touch other sports.

Its also the reason why I favor MMA betting over poker playing.

But really now, is it "valuable" to me if I bet on a losing fighter? I get the concept of beating the closing lines and "value betting" (from the days when I played poker micros to build my bankroll). But really... its MMA, crazy shit happens.

I would assume variance would be a reason as to why not to bet MMA, but to each their own.

Sure, it's simple, really. Hypothetically, you think a fighter wins 30% of the time; any lines which imply he wins less than 30% of the time contain "value". Most of the time you will lose these plays, but if you have a sufficient edge, you will profit from them in the long term. Not everyone feels this way, though, and some (such as our friend Gabe) generally only play lines that they think will win a majority of the time (generally, Gabe; I know sometimes you bet value, too). Given that I've made a lot of my profit over the years from undervalued dogs, I don't fall on that side.

Sacrelicious · 12-22-12, 02:01 PM

Ditto in poker, I hear you.

My MMA betting is gut centric, it may make me a loser, I dont know. Only time will tell.

MD · 12-22-12, 02:07 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Ditto in poker, I hear you.

My MMA betting is gut centric, it may make me a loser, I dont know. Only time will tell.

I used to be the same, it's how I built my bankroll to where it is. I took far too many chances, bet far too big and played according to my instincts, with very little logic. I made a lot of money, but I could have easily gone broke. I was quite lucky, honestly, and if I had to do it again, I wouldn't, although it's the reason I can support myself through my gambling at this point. I can't say I recommend it, but I hope it goes well for you.

I used to play poker, too. Nightmarish variance made me realize I don't have the grinding mentality necessary for it, at least at that point.

RJB87 · 12-22-12, 06:02 PM

horrible decision in boxing, Cunnigham clearly won the fight. Bet him live at +250 after round 4, what a robbery.
penetrating boxing!

hougigo · 12-22-12, 07:03 PM

Mannn, Adamek fight went the 12, but I really thought Cunningham won that time......Don't know if you guys saw it, but Cunningham should have got the nod.... at the very least a draw.

2-1 so far

The Fobfather · 12-22-12, 07:20 PM

Unlucky there boys. I had it for Cunningham as well. Roach and the other commentator did also.

hougigo · 12-22-12, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by The Fobfather

Unlucky there boys. I had it for Cunningham as well. Roach and the other commentator did also.

Well, that's boxing there mates. Hell, there might be a rematch down the road, but I see it only after Adamek gets KO'd by Pulev next year

RJB87 · 12-22-12, 08:35 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Well, that's boxing there mates. Hell, there might be a rematch down the road, but I see it only after Adamek gets KO'd by Pulev next year

Reading the press reviews seems everyone had Cunnigham winning by a good margin. In live betting on betfair Adamek was a +800 dog in last round. Just corruption and incompatant judges ruining fights once again.

hougigo · 12-22-12, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by RJB87

Reading the press reviews seems everyone had Cunnigham winning by a good margin. In live betting on betfair Adamek was a +800 dog in last round. Just corruption and incompatant judges ruining fights once again.

The judges gave the last round to Adamek.....
This is a shame.... and since he isn't Pacquiao, Mayweather or one of those other Money Makers... this'll get swept under the rug.
Well... that's betting on boxing for you.... or any sport where the possibility of the winner is determined by a judge

Crassus · 12-22-12, 11:37 PM

So pissed at boxing right now...sport just loves to mess with you.

hougigo · 12-23-12, 01:45 AM

Ughhh, wtf?
Should've been over in the first 3 rounds....
Rubio should've flattened him after that KD

2-2

Sacrelicious · 12-23-12, 04:39 AM

penetrating boxing...

Grabaka · 12-23-12, 06:10 AM

Got nailed on Cunningham.

hougigo · 12-23-12, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by RJB87

Reading the press reviews seems everyone had Cunnigham winning by a good margin. In live betting on betfair Adamek was a +800 dog in last round. Just corruption and incompatant judges ruining fights once again.

If the fight was in the prudential center in Jersey.... I would've jumped on that

THE_LOCKSMITH · 12-24-12, 01:36 PM

Yea just watched that Adamek/Cunningham fight, so cagey. Buffer even read it a draw at first

Mercersux · 12-24-12, 10:03 PM

Wonder how this card did ratings wise? Would be nice to get more free boxing cards on the wknds.

hougigo · 01-01-13, 01:44 AM

Dang, missed the Japanese card... don't know if 5dimes had it or not (internet in the PI sucks)
Looking to this weekend though and the 19th card on HBO..... GGG is going to wreck Rosado

Boxscout · 01-01-13, 02:37 AM

They had a lot of the fights in Japan up on 5D. I agree on GGG. I think they're going to make him a pretty huge favorite though. I hope Rosado is getting paid well to take that beating.

Mercersux · 01-02-13, 12:19 AM

Houg, what we feeling for the first FNF of the new year? Got Gonzalez v. Ennis & Barthelemy v. Usmanee. Gonzalez will hopefully show up in shape and pound. Doubt we'll get any sort of odds that would be worth gambling. Maybe the o/u. The other two have no clue who they are. Got any insight?

hougigo · 01-07-13, 03:20 AM

I can't do anything do until I get back to the States... PI internet sucks nuts

Mercersux · 01-07-13, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

I can't do anything do until I get back to the States... PI internet sucks nuts

Why you in the philippines? How's the Pacman love over there?

hougigo · 01-07-13, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by Mercersux

Why you in the philippines? How's the Pacman love over there?

Visiting Fam.... internet here sucks.
Pac love is good, a lot of people want him to retire though... took the Pac loss bad.
Lawmakers actually wanted to ban Justin Bieber for posting funny KO pics of Pac on his Twitter.
I think they're moving on to Donaire though

Mercersux · 01-08-13, 01:58 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

Visiting Fam.... internet here sucks.
Pac love is good, a lot of people want him to retire though... took the Pac loss bad.
Lawmakers actually wanted to ban Justin Bieber for posting funny KO pics of Pac on his Twitter.
I think they're moving on to Donaire though

Donaire's the man. He has alot of mileage and wins left on him. Love the Bieber banning stuff. Smart country. LOL

hougigo · 01-08-13, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by Mercersux

Donaire's the man. He has alot of mileage and wins left on him. Love the Bieber banning stuff. Smart country. LOL

Fun place to visit, not so much to live unless you're already from here.Anyway, I've been out for a while, any upcoming fights on 5d?

Mercersux · 01-08-13, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Fun place to visit, not so much to live unless you're already from here.Anyway, I've been out for a while, any upcoming fights on 5d?

They go strikeforce this wknd. Should be some huge mismatches to capitalize on. Think there's a couple card this weekend on espn2 & showtime but no lines yet. I'm looking forward to having the Trout-Alvarez bout announced. Hopefully get some serious dog odds on Trout's side and take advantage.

hougigo · 01-10-13, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by Mercersux

They go strikeforce this wknd. Should be some huge mismatches to capitalize on. Think there's a couple card this weekend on espn2 & showtime but no lines yet. I'm looking forward to having the Trout-Alvarez bout announced. Hopefully get some serious dog odds on Trout's side and take advantage.

I think it'll be closer than his previous bouts... as those were just ridiculous matchmakings.
He fought only one legit JMW since he won his title, Cintron lost in his comeback fight against Molina and looked Terrible. As for everywhere else, they were WW's or smaller (lopez).

Gomez
Hatton
Mosley
Lopez

That's 4 welterweights that I'm sure was in the +1000's.
Anyway... I don't see Trout going past +400 if this fight happens....I'll put down for him if it happens though.
Won't be surprised if he's robbed because Alvarez judges are ridiculous

hougigo · 01-10-13, 10:33 PM

Couple of boxing matches tomorrow... a little jet lagged, but I'm going to hop on it

hougigo · 01-11-13, 11:41 PM

Woke up late.... still jet lagged as penetrate
I'll make one pick for today and that's Ronny Rios over Rico Ramos.
I'm doing this based on Ramos being a nervous nelly and being so hesitant to fight. Sure he KO'd Shimoda in the seventh round to win his title, but he was being outlanded and out thrown. Rigo was humiliating him by letting him land only 15 throw 6 rounds. His activity and accuracy is well below his weight class average and I think Ronny is hungry to take on a big win on his record. I think he'll be aggressive and active and the judges will take notice.
Ramos has speed and experience, but I don't think he'll win today.

Ronny Rios over Rico Ramos @-160

MMA/Boxing record: 34-32-1

hougigo · 01-12-13, 12:56 AM

Rios won by UD.... but 100-90?
Wipe the jizz from your eyes son... at least make it look like you're not filling your shit out before you get there
MMA/Boxing record: 35-32-1

Boxscout · 01-12-13, 01:08 AM

Haha! Those are the cards I love. "Why should I bother even pretending to score the fight fairly? It's not like anything can happen to me, so blow me. Every round to the GBP kid."

Nice pick.

The Fobfather · 01-12-13, 02:29 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

Rios won by UD.... but 100-90?
Wipe the jizz from your eyes son... at least make it look like you're not filling your shit out before you get there
MMA/Boxing record: 35-32-1

The type of judge that makes a promoter happy.

hougigo · 01-12-13, 05:44 AM

I think Ramos was a Haymon fighter... but come on now... he won at the very very least one round. Right man won, but I hate judges like that. Ramos came stronger in the second half

hougigo · 01-12-13, 06:08 PM

Another fight for today... just one for now.

Hernandez vs Cabarca

Hernandez is coming off a high by avenging his loss to Pompramook and Cabarca has never fought outside 8 rounds..... and only once outside of Panama I think. On top of that, Cabarca doesn't have the best of defense and Hernandez will be banging the body. I don't think Cabarca is conditioned well enough if Hernandez takes enough out of the tank and he'll fall soon after.
I don't see Cabarca defending well against a relentless Hernandez and see him falling before 8, so I'm taking the under here.

Under 7.5 @ -180

hougigo · 01-13-13, 07:09 AM

Hernandez wins by decision.

MMA/Boxing record: 35-33-1

hougigo · 01-13-13, 11:49 AM

One i'm looking at now... o/u for zab vs garcia. Over looks good standing @ +185.
Judah got KO'd by Khan, but dude was trying to fake a low blow and got counted out. Soon as the ref said 10 he hopped up like nothing happened.
He has a pretty strong chin too, recently survived Matthysse in a 12 rounder.
I think Zab will be very defensive minded and Danny won't try to push the pace by pressuring Zab. I think it'll be Zab throwing jabs and Danny trying to counter.
I won't put down now, but I'll watch it to see if it gets better