Hougigo's boxing/MMA picks

[hougigo]

I'm down on that +10.5 bet as well, 2 units. I noticed the line for Marquez ITD is around +825, it might be worth a VERY small hedge, maybe 0.2 or so.

Me personally, I can't take this fight ending by KO.... I don't even see it ending by TD as neither fighter would want to stop the fight if they were cut.
These are two very durable men who're in the later stages of their career. Pac hasn't been KO'd in years and has displayed a beard of steel. Marquez has never been KO'd and Manny's speed has gone down as well as his aggression. I just can't see this fight ending within the distance.
Also... I'd hate to pick a winner of this fight because it's always marred in controversy. So me personally.... i'm going to lay off picking a name.

[Sacrelicious]

I'm not crazy on doing so either, as I said, its a possible hedge at a line over 800, possibly 900 by fight time. I do like the +10.5 play though, a great deal, I capped it more around -500, so at -280 (the current line on my books), theres a lot of value.

Heres to cashing it.

[hougigo]

I'm not crazy on doing so either, as I said, its a possible hedge at a line over 800, possibly 900 by fight time. I do like the +10.5 play though, a great deal, I capped it more around -500, so at -280 (the current line on my books), theres a lot of value.

Heres to cashing it.

Here here my friend

[hougigo]

Lines are out for Saturday.... looking at some good over/unders.
I was going to play the Gesta/Vasquez... but too damn high. Didn't want to touch the winner because it's a toss up.. not in the way of skills because Vasquez is above and beyond Gesta.... I have no idea who the judges will pick

[Beelzebubzy]

I have Marquez using peds at evens

[hougigo]

I have Marquez using peds at evens

How many 40 year olds you see get that back and fast at that age?

[hougigo]

5d just posted more lines for the Pac 4 undercard.... more that I love:

Gambao vs Farenas over 5.5 @-160

Gamboa wins this outright, no question. Farenas is a tough customer coming from a weight division above and has only been knocked down once in his career. Gamboa coming off of a year and a half lay off, but still looking fast as hell. IMO, this is a coin flip because he'll be hitting Farenas at angles he's never been hit before and Gamboa is quite a dirty fighter. At the same time, Farenas is tough and I can see this going a couple of rounds before it's over... only reason I'm taking this is because it's so low... had it been 7.5 or more, it'd be a no go for me.

Next, Fortuna vs Hyland

under 7.5 @+170

This all depends on Hyland's beard and if he can take Fortuna's speed and power. Hyland is technically sound and won't roll over for Fortuna.... Fortuna though is just that much of a beast. He's so damn fast and one of the fastest at his weight.... only person I think is faster is Gary Russel Jr. and he's the fastest in boxing right now. He's also vicious and goes in with killer intent. On this stage, I don't see him putting any less effort in killing Hyland. This is his first world title shot and I see him winning in emphatic fassion.

[hougigo]

Also don't bother going under for the Vasquez and Gesta fight. Gesta won't be able to KO Vasquez.... much less touch him. If an oversized Canelo couldn't KO Vasquez, neither can Gesta

[NunyaBidness]

Next, Fortuna vs Hyland

under 7.5 @+170

This all depends on Hyland's beard and if he can take Fortuna's speed and power. Hyland is technically sound and won't roll over for Fortuna.... Fortuna though is just that much of a beast. He's so damn fast and one of the fastest at his weight.... only person I think is faster is Gary Russel Jr. and he's the fastest in boxing right now. He's also vicious and goes in with killer intent. On this stage, I don't see him putting any less effort in killing Hyland. This is his first world title shot and I see him winning in emphatic fassion.

That line is reversed and will likely be cancelled.

[hougigo]

That line is reversed and will likely be cancelled.

Yea, I was kind of surprised..... I'll still take the under if I see it tomorrow

[hougigo]

Pacquiao came in at 147..... same weight against Bradley.... which makes me think he didn't train as hard again.
Hell, Marquez by decision isn't looking so bad now

[hougigo]

I think my last 4 plays were for half a unit each... don't remember. My last will be Vasquez over Gesta @ -120 for a unit.
Seriously... the only way Gesta wins this is back room corruption or incompetent judges. Vasquez is not only miles ahead of him, but the toughest Gesta has ever faced in his career. Gesta has not fought anybody within the top 100 of his weight class yet and he's getting this much praise? Please, Vasquez will be too awkward and tricky for Gesta and will frustrate him the whole night. No way Gesta KO's him either... if Vasquez can take Canelo's power at a heavier weight, he can take this stamina/activity drained kids punches.

Vasquez over Gesta @ -120 1unit

[hougigo]

Well, no sugarcoating what happened last week, I got buried. 2-3 with most of my loss coming from Manny getting KO'd.

Making a couple of half unit plays here, really attractive night so far and thank you Butler.

First:
Arce vs Donaire
This fight is an interesting one as the Mexican/Filipino rivalry continues. I've been saying this for a while before they fought, it's a death wish for Arce. His style is what Donaire has been facing for and is the recipe for a stunning and devastating KO. Compared to Donaire's last few opponents, Arce is going to try and plow forward and pressure Donaire... which is straight stupid. Donaire has been waiting to unload that counter left hook since he KO'd Montiel and we all saw what happened when you come at him like Darchinyan.
Now, this is assuming Arce fights like he's been fighting. He's worn torn and didn't look all that impressive in his quit job against Rojas. The O/U is wayyyy too damn high and this will definitely go under

Under 10.5 @ -240

Next, Angulo vs Silva

This isn't even fair. Silva's there to be hit as shown in his last fight against Kamegai and Angulo is one of the hardest hitting JMW's out there. This is his first fight back, but I don't even think Silva makes it past the fourth. 8.5 rounds? Wayyy too many for Silva, this goes under

Under 7.5 rounds @ -250


Khan vs Molina
I'm not picking Molina over Khan, but I think Molina will hang in there with him for 12 rounds. Not a lot of footage out there on this kid, but he has fast hands.... only problem for me is he's a lightweight. He made weight alright, but Khan will be bigger than him on fight night. Khan will fight differently though I feel and not pace himself so violently that he's throwing nothing but combinations every round. He'll slow the pace down and maybe have this go to a decision. I'm not worried about Molina knocking him out because he's not a very hard hitter and even Khan's chin isn't that bad.

Over 10.5 rounds @ +150

I want to put some on price over wilder right now... but indecisive right now. Wilder is an unproven fighter, but Price hasn't KO'd anyone in 2 years or fought since April.
I feel like splurging on my Butler winnings... so I'll put down .5 unites on Kelvin Price.
I think he's about to get exposed. Kelvin Price is old and hasn't fought in a while, but as sad as it seems, he's the biggest step up on Wilder's resume which includes literal janitors and street bums. His last opponent hadn't fought in like 6 years and was a cruiserweight.
This is a ten rounder and Deontay hasn't gone 10 rounds yet... plus Price is the same height as him and looked to be in good shape.

Why I'm picking Price:
-Better than Deontay's entire resume X10
- He beat Tor hammer, that's a pretty good win
- He's not at a height disadvantage

Deontay might win, but I see no reason not to take a chance with Price. Hell, Mitchell got beat a while ago.... Deontay might get exposed here

Why not?
Kelvin Price over Deontay Wilder +700

[hougigo]

Also, looked back at my last time I added my record and fixed it

MMA/Boxing record: 31-27-1

[hougigo]

Alright, under for Arce/Donaire hit.
Was worried because Arce was really cautious at first, but after that first KD, he opened up and Donaire went head hunting from there... same left hook that murdered Montiel.
1-0 so far for the night

[hougigo]

Well, I'm already down for the night. Silva o/u with the mild upset.
Silva must've gotten a chin upgrade because I've seen him hurt by lighter punchers. Angulo has no movement, but dude has some heavy hands

1-1 for the night

[hougigo]

1-2
Price got KTFO
There goes my hopeful underdog... let's see if Khan/Molina goes over

[Sacrelicious]

I'm also on the over, half unit at +180, not a bad line.

[hougigo]

I'm also on the over, half unit at +180, not a bad line.

Good luck to us.
I think Khan will temper himself and not go on an all out offensive blitz. I think he'll spend tonight trying to get into the Virgil groove

[hougigo]

Retired in the corner at the end of the 10th.... damn it.
1-3 for the night... FML
I'll say this about that Khan fight though.... Garcia sparks him again.

[Sacrelicious]

Oh shit, you went over 10.5? I got it at 9.5, got lucky, barely made that one.

Got a 2 team mega favorite loser parlay on Khan and Uchimaya to pay off about a half unit at the end of the month as well. We shall see what happens.

[hougigo]

Oh shit, you went over 10.5? I got it at 9.5, got lucky, barely made that one.

Got a 2 team mega favorite loser parlay on Khan and Uchimaya to pay off about a half unit at the end of the month as well. We shall see what happens.

Dangggg... wish I had that.
Haha, this is like the third time this happened to me... just one more round. Not as bad as this one time this dude got KO'd 2 seconds before the .5 of the round... I was livid.

MMA/Boxing record: 32-30-1

[hougigo]

Okay... so here's my card for Saturday... only doing half units again.... hoping I can build back from last week.

Rubio vs Rosales

Okay, another fight that doesn't seem fair at all. Rubio, a dude who's like naturally a SMW/MW is fighting a guy who's last fight was at WW earlier this year. This fight will be at SMW and.... it just seems too goddamn easy. Rubio will pressure Rosales and get a KO in less than eight and a half rounds.... just just seems too damn easy. He's been stopped every time he stepped up in class by smaller men and Rubio will make short work of him... 8 rounds is too damn much for him

Under 7.5 rounds @-265


Hammer vs Glazkov
the O/U is at 7.5... fight is only 8 rounds.... books have their rounds messed up.

*edit
Disregard, I thought it was 8.5 instead of 7.5.


Adamek vs Cunningham

I always thought Adamek was a glorified CW not really fit for the HW division. Dude's kind of undersized and tiny compared to some of the other Euro heavies. Both are CW's fighting at HW and both are older men. I think this'll go to a decision with either men capable of winning. Cunningham was able to go 12 with Hernandez and it was only stopped the first time because of cuts. He took some flush shots and survived a storm in a pretty good fight. Adamek will try to pressure him and I think Cunningham will try not to get sucked into it.
Cunningham looked pretty chinny to me lately and I think he'll be knocked down at least once in this fight.
With that though, I think Cunningham will try and box smarter this fight. Dude has the reach advantage and better boxing knowledge. Cunningham can't hurt Adamek, but Adamek can hurt Cunningham.
Cunningham has like a 7 inch reach advantage, if he utilizes that, he'll win.... Adamek can steal rounds though with his activity and when he lands the telling blows... you can really tell.
Like i said before, both men can win this, but I think Cunningham has a good chance. Standing at +275, why the hell not? They're not fighting in Adamek's homecourt away from home (Prudential Center) and I think that slightly helps his chances

Over 11.5 @ -130
Cunningham SU @+275


Last one,Tunacao vs Esquival

Tunacao may be the older fighter, but Esquival is a plodder and has been stopped in all three of his losses. I'm not saying he'll be stopped, but if Tunacao can keep it on the outside and connect with combinations on Esquival, he'll beat him. On the flip side though, if Esquival can land cleanly enough, I think he can KO Tunacao... I think Tunacao will ultimately win though.

Tunacao wins @ -165

[Sacrelicious]

I'm also small on the under 7.5 as well. I tend to agree with your analysis.

That being said, I have not had the luck betting on boxing that I have with MMA, so I keep all my boxing bets quite small.

[hougigo]

I'm also small on the under 7.5 as well. I tend to agree with your analysis.

That being said, I have not had the luck betting on boxing that I have with MMA, so I keep all my boxing bets quite small.

I'm on the opposite end of that, I win one out of like every 10 MMA bets. A lot of them my guy is winning and then he's KO'd.

Also, Tunacao KO'd Esquival in the 7th..... so as of right now:

1-0

[Sacrelicious]

Word. Bet hard on Glover next month, its the best value bet I have seen in several months.

[Mercersux]

Word. Bet hard on Glover next month, its the best value bet I have seen in several months.

No. Terrible value in my opinion. Very good chance Rampage wins if he's in shape. If Glover wins it will be a tough fight. Just my opinion but eh.

[Broxbomber]

No. Terrible value in my opinion. Very good chance Rampage wins if he's in shape. If Glover wins it will be a tough fight. Just my opinion but eh.

How many times did we hear "so and so wins if he's in shape". This is the same situation as BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald. Rampage is coming off of knee surgery and isn't mentally into it anymore. Rampage is showing up for a paycheck and nothing else. He has a punchers chance at best. This isn't the Rampage from Pride that is getting in the ring. That Rampage died long ago.

[Broxbomber]

How many times did we hear "so and so wins if he's in shape". This is the same situation as BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald. Rampage is coming off of knee surgery and isn't mentally into it anymore. Rampage is showing up for a paycheck and nothing else. He has a punchers chance at best. This isn't the Rampage from Pride that is getting in the ring. That Rampage died long ago.

UFC is also setting up the old lions to be taken out by the new lions on FOX so the new lions get huge exposure for the future. Examples are BJ Penn, Shogun and now Rampage. If Liddell was still fighting he would be set up in a similar fashion.

[Sacrelicious]

How many times did we hear "so and so wins if he's in shape". This is the same situation as BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald. Rampage is coming off of knee surgery and isn't mentally into it anymore. Rampage is showing up for a paycheck and nothing else. He has a punchers chance at best. This isn't the Rampage from Pride that is getting in the ring. That Rampage died long ago.

To be specific, he is coming off a double knee surgery and a year out of action. In his last fight he was clearly beaten by CHRIS LEBEN.

Hes fufilling contractual obligations, nothing more.

[MD]

How many times did we hear "so and so wins if he's in shape". This is the same situation as BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald. Rampage is coming off of knee surgery and isn't mentally into it anymore. Rampage is showing up for a paycheck and nothing else. He has a punchers chance at best. This isn't the Rampage from Pride that is getting in the ring. That Rampage died long ago.

How good shape do you think Rampage needs to be in to win 25% of the time or more against Glover, though? Not very, I'd say. He's obviously a better striker, and his takedown defence is outstanding. If he makes weight even semi-easily, the value is on him.

To be specific, he is coming off a double knee surgery and a year out of action. In his last fight he was clearly beaten by CHRIS LEBEN.

Hes fufilling contractual obligations, nothing more.

Is this some sort of in-joke I don't get?

[PunisherIND]

How good shape do you think Rampage needs to be in to win 25% of the time or more against Glover, though? Not very, I'd say. He's obviously a better striker, and his takedown defence is outstanding. If he makes weight even semi-easily, the value is on him.



Is this some sort of in-joke I don't get?

the chris leben comment confused me too. think he meant bader and had a brain fart.

re: rampage; he was on TRT for the bader fight, right? anyone know whether he's doing TRT again?

[Sacrelicious]

How good shape do you think Rampage needs to be in to win 25% of the time or more against Glover, though? Not very, I'd say. He's obviously a better striker, and his takedown defence is outstanding. If he makes weight even semi-easily, the value is on him.



Is this some sort of in-joke I don't get?

MD, more then often I like your picks.

To be honest, I think you are one of the sharper people here.

Can you explain this notion of "value" to me ?

MMA seems to me to be a highly variable sport, its the reason why I only bet on it and I dont dare touch other sports.

Its also the reason why I favor MMA betting over poker playing.

But really now, is it "valuable" to me if I bet on a losing fighter? I get the concept of beating the closing lines and "value betting" (from the days when I played poker micros to build my bankroll). But really... its MMA, crazy shit happens.

[Broxbomber]

[QUOTE=MD;17218954]How good shape do you think Rampage needs to be in to win 25% of the time or more against Glover, though? Not very, I'd say. He's obviously a better striker, and his takedown defence is outstanding. If he makes weight even semi-easily, the value is on him.


I think Rampage has mentally packed it in. He is on the downside and when fighter start going down it is a slippery slope. The problem with Rampage is that he doesn't throw punches anymore. He stands, faints, bobs, but doesn't have the killer instinct anymore. Rampages punchers chance is early in the fight. After the first round I expect Rampage to be a punching bag for Glover.

I dont even remember the last time Rampage was motivated for a fight. Why all of the sudden after knee surgeries and having one foot out of the door do you think he will be motivated for Glover?. Rampage didn't even seem up for the Jones fight and that was for the title.

I would however wait on the odds to come down on Glover. Public money will come in on Rampage closer to the fight as he is the fan favorite.

[Broxbomber]

MD, more then often I like your picks.

To be honest, I think you are one of the sharper people here.

Can you explain this notion of "value" to me ?

MMA seems to me to be a highly variable sport, its the reason why I only bet on it and I dont dare touch other sports.

Its also the reason why I favor MMA betting over poker playing.

But really now, is it "valuable" to me if I bet on a losing fighter? I get the concept of beating the closing lines and "value betting" (from the days when I played poker micros to build my bankroll). But really... its MMA, crazy shit happens.

I agree as well. I usually agree with what MD posts and his picks.