Hougigo's boxing/MMA picks

[hougigo]

Also on the same play, Guererro fades towards the end. This will be counter boxing all day. Played the -162 at paddy, but StanJames has but up -150 if you have access

Dang, nice odds.Honestly, I see Guerrero feeling out till the third round then tries to put it on.
There's a good chance he'll try to do it the first, but only if he feels he touches Mayweather good enough.

[Dwil125]

Is this on showtime or on ppv?

[hougigo]

Is this on showtime or on ppv?

It's on PPV on Showtime... even worse... it's about 70 bucks I think

[kripsak]

I definitely like Mayweather by DEC, but Pretty Boy Floyd's last fight seemed like the last few rounds he wanted to stand & trade. Not sure if he was tired, or if he was trying to entertain the fans.

[hougigo]

I definitely like Mayweather by DEC, but Pretty Boy Floyd's last fight seemed like the last few rounds he wanted to stand & trade. Not sure if he was tired, or if he was trying to entertain the fans.

His legs aren't there like they used to, but he was beating Cotto at his own game.
Then again, Cotto himself was old too.
Mayweather was getting him though with uppercuts every time he came in and almost KO'd Cotto (badly hurt him) in the 12th

[Sacrelicious]

Wlad ITD, as expected, is around the -800 range, though there may still be some value there.

I took the under 6.5 at -160, thinking of maybe taking Wlad ITD and parlaying it with Velasquez and Mayweather, or something, just to cover me in case the under 6.5 does not hit.

You on the under as well?

[hougigo]

Wlad ITD, as expected, is around the -800 range, though there may still be some value there.

I took the under 6.5 at -160, thinking of maybe taking Wlad ITD and parlaying it with Velasquez and Mayweather, or something, just to cover me in case the under 6.5 does not hit.

You on the under as well?

I like the under too, but still waiting to pull the trigger due to being uncertain.
Pianeta has never fought anybody like Wlad, and he struggled with two journeymen in Botha and McCall.... both fat ass old dudes. McCall's jab gave him problems!
Wlad has the best jab in the HW division... a freaking hammer that sets up his killer right
Also Pianeta's chin has no red flags (no KD's or KO's in amateur and pro careers), but the only people to ever really test him was Snow and Skelton.
He's a big southpaw, so he could give trouble off the bat..... but he also sucked so bad Wlad kicked him out of his training camp in the past.

Like I said man.... indecisive as of right now. This could be a late round TKO.

Also Thursday night fights are out.
Herrera a moderate fave (about -300) and should win handily against kim. I'll wait for the O/U

[Boxscout]

It's a tough call because of pinata's chin, as you mentioned, and also Wlad's patience. It's not like Wlad gives a shit if he blows him out in 2 rounds or gradually dismantles him.

Looking at PDL and Mares now. He can help fill a hockey arena in LA for Golden Boy and Mares will have a huge edge in work rate, so I don't see how PDL wins a decision. But I was not expecting the odds to be this skewed. Maybe a PDL KO prop will be worth a small play, if it comes out.

[Sacrelicious]

It's a tough call because of pinata's chin, as you mentioned, and also Wlad's patience. It's not like Wlad gives a shit if he blows him out in 2 rounds or gradually dismantles him.

Looking at PDL and Mares now. He can help fill a hockey arena in LA for Golden Boy and Mares will have a huge edge in work rate, so I don't see how PDL wins a decision. But I was not expecting the odds to be this skewed. Maybe a PDL KO prop will be worth a small play, if it comes out.

I'm taking a small stab on PDL, I think there is some value at +250. Nothing crazy, just a half unit or so.

Would not be surprised to see +500ish on the KO prop.

[Boxscout]

Wow. I'm 95% sure he was +330 a minute ago. Boxing lines are crazy.

[hougigo]

Wow. I'm 95% sure he was +330 a minute ago. Boxing lines are crazy.

Yup, Mares was -490 this morning, dropped down all the way to -250.

PDL has a good chance at winning, Mares is essentially moving up 2 weight classes as both the fights he had at 122 were against 118 fighter.s He's also noticeably bigger than Mares too. I'm waiting for it to drop even more and the props to come out so I can take him by decision.
If you fancy PDL though, KO is the way to go as that's the only way I see him winning

[hougigo]

Mares has free fell from this morning. Hopefully by Friday/Saturday time, they put a prop up for Mares by decision.
Also if I'm lucky, he'll drop below -200
Might take him Straight up in one of my open parlays

[christianshreve]

What happened to this thread? Maybe we should pull a Frankenstein and bring it back to life.

[hougigo]

What happened to this thread? Maybe we should pull a Frankenstein and bring it back to life.

OP was a bundle of sticks so he left for a while

[Sacrelicious]

I like the under too, but still waiting to pull the trigger due to being uncertain.
Pianeta has never fought anybody like Wlad, and he struggled with two journeymen in Botha and McCall.... both fat ass old dudes. McCall's jab gave him problems!
Wlad has the best jab in the HW division... a freaking hammer that sets up his killer right
Also Pianeta's chin has no red flags (no KD's or KO's in amateur and pro careers), but the only people to ever really test him was Snow and Skelton.
He's a big southpaw, so he could give trouble off the bat..... but he also sucked so bad Wlad kicked him out of his training camp in the past.

Like I said man.... indecisive as of right now. This could be a late round TKO.

Also Thursday night fights are out.
Herrera a moderate fave (about -300) and should win handily against kim. I'll wait for the O/U

Where are you finding those lines?

[hougigo]

Where are you finding those lines?

I forgot where, but it's on 5d now and he's -400.. go figure.
Anyway... I'm going to take a stab at Acosta over herrera. Dude's on a losing streak, but he has a wealth of experience over Gonzalez, who has fought mostly doo doo competition. Huge step up for him while Acosta arguably won his last fight.
Also both men haven't fought since 2012, more than a year for Gonzalez, almost a year for Acosta.
I think Acosta will be too smart for Gonzalez and Gonzalez's ring rust will show in this fight.
Best shot Gonzalez has in this fight is a KO or multiple KD's

[hougigo]

If you're looking for action on TNF, Herrera should beat Kim... standing at -425 though

[Sacrelicious]

Got him small at -400, we'll see what happens.

[hougigo]

I got Herrera by 10 round decision @ -103-ish.
Kim moving up in weight and has literally no defense, none. His defense is his ability to throw punches and keep you busy.
Herrera is a smarter fighter who can box good enough to catch Kim every time he comes.
I think Kim's best chance is a KO and Herrera could KO him, but he'll take it to a decision

[Sacrelicious]

I got Herrera by 10 round decision @ -103-ish.
Kim moving up in weight and has literally no defense, none. His defense is his ability to throw punches and keep you busy.
Herrera is a smarter fighter who can box good enough to catch Kim every time he comes.
I think Kim's best chance is a KO and Herrera could KO him, but he'll take it to a decision

Coming up next, best of luck.

Glad I could get a bit of action on this, the lack of MMA for the next few weeks has me extremely bored.

[hougigo]

Coming up next, best of luck.

Glad I could get a bit of action on this, the lack of MMA for the next few weeks has me extremely bored.

Man, I bombed on that Acosta pick. Looks like he followed the trend of folding in the second half of the fight

[hougigo]

Man, I bombed on that Acosta pick. Looks like he followed the trend of folding in the second half of the fight

Killed my parlay... well, I have Herrera 10 rnd decision @ +107 along with Mayweather Decision -195 and Warriors take the series @ -225.
4 teamer.... looking for a 4th if I make it out of tonight

[Sacrelicious]

Frankie Edgar is some great parlay filler right now.

[hougigo]

Frankie Edgar is some great parlay filler right now.

When's he fighting?
Is he on UFC 160?
Honestly, haven't looked at that yet

[Sacrelicious]

Aug 7th, he is in just about every single parlay I have right now.

Depends how adverse you are to having your funds tied up for a few months, but the line on him has ridiculous value.

[Sacrelicious]

Herrera putting on a clinic after 2... I don't know how much more of this Kim can take.

[hougigo]

Herrera putting on a clinic after 2... I don't know how much more of this Kim can take.

Kim's tough as nails. Been stopped twice.
Didn't see the first one, but the Lenny Zappa fight was because he got careless and never recovered. Herrera also isn't so much a power guy. If he KO's kim it's because it's such a high accumulation of damage

[hougigo]

Ughhh, I want to see these J'leon love vs Rosado lines.
I'm hoping Love is a huge underdog here... most likely not though. If he is, i'm jumping on it.

I have a feeling about PDL winning against Mares too. He broke Mares's ribs during sparring and got the better of him

[Sacrelicious]

Oh shit, Herrera is gassing...

[hougigo]

Oh shit, Herrera is gassing...

I wouldn't be too worried about it. All he has to do is counter because Kim's as open as a prostitute's legs

[Sacrelicious]

Yeah I gave him 7, got this scored 5-2, it looks good.

[Sacrelicious]

Terrible round for Herrera. 5-3.

[Sacrelicious]

I scored Kim winning 5, 6, 8, 9, 10.

Unreal, we will see what happens.

[Sacrelicious]

Well cheers on the win,

But 99-91?!?!?! Ridiculous.

Reminds me of why this sport is a trainwreck right now...

[hougigo]

Well cheers on the win,

But 99-91?!?!?! Ridiculous.

Reminds me of why this sport is a trainwreck right now...

99-91 seems a little excessive... but maybe the judges weren't buying into his activity as much.
Herrera may have slowed down..... but they took his punches over Kim's aggression I