Hougigo's boxing/MMA picks

**hougigo** · 10-13-12, 10:25 PM

A war like I thought, But Alvarado got caught in the seventh and couldn't defend himself.

Donaire vs Nishioka..... not doing so well in the entertainment area.... looking to go for a decision like I thought

**hougigo** · 10-13-12, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

A war like I thought, But Alvarado got caught in the seventh and couldn't defend himself.

Donaire vs Nishioka..... not doing so well in the entertainment area.... looking to go for a decision like I thought

Now that.... was a weaksauce stoppage.... wtf

0-2 for the night

**hougigo** · 10-13-12, 10:57 PM

Hahaha, wtf?
2 judges had Alvarado tied and Rios up by 2?
Arum working his magic again.... guess it wouldn't matter if Alvarado didn't get knocked out

**Mercersux** · 10-23-12, 12:48 AM

Just got done watching the donaire-Nishioka card. I know im a bit behind but I've just been busy so i avoided all boxing news for the few days around this card just so i didn't hear or see what happened. Rios-Alvarado was toe2toe brawl. Great sh*t. Donaire fight was ok. Really surprised how bad Nishioka got beat. So what fights are coming up ??? I know Broner is fighting soon. I'm itching for Cotto-Trout to arrive. Im cashing huge on Trout. Fully expect him break into the upper echelon with this fight. Thoughts ???

**hougigo** · 10-23-12, 01:55 AM

Originally posted by Mercersux

Just got done watching the donaire-Nishioka card. I know im a bit behind but I've just been busy so i avoided all boxing news for the few days around this card just so i didn't hear or see what happened. Rios-Alvarado was toe2toe brawl. Great sh*t. Donaire fight was ok. Really surprised how bad Nishioka got beat. So what fights are coming up ??? I know Broner is fighting soon. I'm itching for Cotto-Trout to arrive. Im cashing huge on Trout. Fully expect him break into the upper echelon with this fight. Thoughts ???

I'm in on Trout too.... but he's fighting at MSG and Cotto always wins at MSG.... so Trout would have to win by KO because I don't think he'll have much luck on the cards.
Trout can win though IMO, he'll have to win it ugly though.
Vasquez vs Quintero is on next week.... Vasquez will win... don't know if it'll be by KO or decision though because Quintero is kind of chinny

**hougigo** · 10-26-12, 04:07 PM

Japanese play.
Only going to make one...

I think that Takashi got it good over here. He gave Uchiyama a good first couple of rounds before he was out....... definitely have a very good chance of winning here.
IMO, a toss up

Takashi Miura over Ryuji Migaki @ -110

**Mercersux** · 10-26-12, 08:42 PM

Nice man. What you think about emmanuel stewart. Pretty shitty. Always enjoyed his commentary on hbo.

**tanner** · 10-26-12, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Japanese play.
Only going to make one...

I think that Takashi got it good over here. He gave Uchiyama a good first couple of rounds before he was out....... definitely have a very good chance of winning here.
IMO, a toss up

Takashi Miura over Ryuji Migaki @ -110

thats a great bet. what book did you get -110 down at?

**hougigo** · 10-27-12, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by tanner

thats a great bet. what book did you get -110 down at?

I got it down at -110 at 5dimes. One of those international fights that aren't big in the U.S I guess, so they just tossed it up.

Originally posted by Mercersux

Nice man. What you think about emmanuel stewart. Pretty shitty. Always enjoyed his commentary on hbo.

Thanks man, over a lot faster than I thought.
Sucks about Steward, boxing lost a great guy. I like his commentary, although sometimes it did get on the nuthuggery side, but he was still an interesting commentator.
One of my favorite recent moments of him:
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/g_bRK5SApjM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

**hougigo** · 10-27-12, 01:33 AM

Adding in the 2 from last week:

MMA/Boxing record: 26-22-1

Maybe I won't get buried this week. Boxing has not been kind to me...... but maybe after Quintero gets effed up by Vasquez, it'll get better

**hougigo** · 10-27-12, 08:10 AM

DANNNGGGGG.... Aoh lost and he was, I think, a-1000 and above favorite at home..... and lost be decision

**hougigo** · 11-01-12, 06:12 PM

A nice dog for the weekend.... Grachev against Bute.
I thought he did fairly well against Simayal on FNF and showed he can bang. Froch finally exposed Bute and I don't know if Bute mentally recovered from that beatdown. if Grachev can keep up the pressure and lay it on Bute, he can beat him and not a bad dog to take at +600.

Not laying down yet until tomorrow, but +600 for a small play isn't bad

**Mercersux** · 11-01-12, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

A nice dog for the weekend.... Grachev against Bute.
I thought he did fairly well against Simayal on FNF and showed he can bang. Froch finally exposed Bute and I don't know if Bute mentally recovered from that beatdown. if Grachev can keep up the pressure and lay it on Bute, he can beat him and not a bad dog to take at +600.

Not laying down yet until tomorrow, but +600 for a small play isn't bad

Damn, Grachev is that much of an underdog ??? Definitely not bad for a small play at those odds. What's the o/u giving. I personally think that while Grachev can definitely end it with one punch, that's likely his only way to get the win. I see more of a boxing clinic put on Grachev all the way to a Ud by Bute. I'll have to check out the odds but if it's worth it then might have a good hedge option at hand.

**Mercersux** · 11-01-12, 07:40 PM

No o/u on 5d... is that fight going to be on tv anywhere?

**hougigo** · 11-01-12, 08:44 PM

Originally posted by Mercersux

Damn, Grachev is that much of an underdog ??? Definitely not bad for a small play at those odds. What's the o/u giving. I personally think that while Grachev can definitely end it with one punch, that's likely his only way to get the win. I see more of a boxing clinic put on Grachev all the way to a Ud by Bute. I'll have to check out the odds but if it's worth it then might have a good hedge option at hand.

Well, it's not really a surprise.
The biggest name on his record was Ismayal and he was losing handily to him until the stoppage. Bute's at home and is looking to get back after that bad loss.
I think Grachev got a chance though because this'll be at 175, he might be a little unstable mentally after the loss ( he looked really uncomfortable even before the Froch match) and if Grachev really puts on the pressure like he says, he could make Bute uncomfortable again.
Grachev is pretty durable and Bute is still a pretty hard puncher. He has way more experience and strength in competition... but I think a small play on Grachev is good.

**hougigo** · 11-02-12, 09:09 AM

Allan Green is fighting again tonight... very winnable fight against 40 year old St. Juste.
Sitting at good odds too, -135. Honestly, Green is the better fighter and has fought the better opposition. His losses came against very capable world class fighters and I think he'll be too much for St. Juste in Quebec.

MMA/Boxing record: 26-22-1

**Mercersux** · 11-02-12, 04:20 PM

I just think with the big win Grachev pulled off and the dominating lose Bute suffered, you'd see the line a bit closer. Not saying Bute isn't the rightful fav, just that perception of the two fights these guys are coming off of would give us closer odds. As far as Allan Green, hard to see how far the guy has fallen. It is nice that we can get him at a very favorable price tho.

**hougigo** · 11-03-12, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by Mercersux

I just think with the big win Grachev pulled off and the dominating lose Bute suffered, you'd see the line a bit closer. Not saying Bute isn't the rightful fav, just that perception of the two fights these guys are coming off of would give us closer odds. As far as Allan Green, hard to see how far the guy has fallen. It is nice that we can get him at a very favorable price tho.

Bute is at home, he dominates there usually.... I think Grachev won't go down easy. I won't touch the o/u because Bute could get KO'd early.
Honestly, putting down on the dog, good value there @+600.

**hougigo** · 11-03-12, 08:34 PM

Guerrero won in a FOTY candidate, one step closer to closing my parlay.
Allan green and 2 MMA fights

**hougigo** · 11-03-12, 09:25 PM

Glad I got it at -135, he jumped up as high as -185 today.
Green just KO'd Juste, good night boys.
Now for the main event

MMA/Boxing record: 27-22-1

**hougigo** · 11-03-12, 10:42 PM

Well, went in small because I was unsure.... but he came damn close to a decision. Bute looked average as shit and when he rematches Froch, expect the same thing.
Grachev was innacurate, but was still able to land on Froch... who for some reason kept going to the ropes.
It was a small play, so not entirely disappointed.

MMA/Boxing record: 27-23-1

**hougigo** · 11-08-12, 09:21 PM

Good dog on Saturday, I'm going to take Moreno over Mares.
Moreno is just too damn slick and methodical... at least to me. If he can get Mares reckless and playing into his game, this'll be an easy night. He's standing at +170ish right now, hoping it'll go up on Saturday.
Moreno has a very good shot at winning and would be surprised if he was either KO'd or lost by a large margin, Moreno is the real deal

**hougigo** · 11-09-12, 12:01 AM

Got a parlay going here too:

Wach vs Wlad goes the distance @ +500
Anselmo Moreno ML @ +130
Thiago Silva @ -350

I'm not going to vote on any of these Chinese guys in a china

**hougigo** · 11-10-12, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Got a parlay going here too:

Wach vs Wlad goes the distance @ +500
Anselmo Moreno ML @ +130
Thiago Silva @ -350

I'm not going to vote on any of these Chinese guys in a china

BOOOM
Took the Wlad vs Wach by itself too....
Just got to wait for Anselmo

**hougigo** · 11-21-12, 07:00 PM

Don't be surprised if Hatton KO's Senchenko. Senchenko is trash who got KO'd by Paulie Malignaggi. Given he just touched him up with a jab all night, he's not that hard to hit and if Hatton is in remote shape, he takes it. He won't be like he was in the past, but he's still enough to win, especially at home

**Mercersux** · 11-23-12, 01:05 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

Don't be surprised if Hatton KO's Senchenko. Senchenko is trash who got KO'd by Paulie Malignaggi. Given he just touched him up with a jab all night, he's not that hard to hit and if Hatton is in remote shape, he takes it. He won't be like he was in the past, but he's still enough to win, especially at home

Not sold on hatton coming in enough of the fighter he once was to lay that type of juice. Better gambling to be had on the night cap. (berto v. Guerrero)

**hougigo** · 11-24-12, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by Mercersux

Not sold on hatton coming in enough of the fighter he once was to lay that type of juice. Better gambling to be had on the night cap. (berto v. Guerrero)

Berto is my pick IMO, he's a lot bigger than Guerrero who's only had one fight north of 135 against a powerful but unskilled Aydin.
Berto will swarm him and Guerrero will have to survive the first 5 rounds until Berto gasses.
I'll take Berto in that.
As for Senchenko... he's just trash that I can't touch... and when you get KO'd by Paulie and his jab.... I don't view you highly

**Mercersux** · 11-24-12, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Berto is my pick IMO, he's a lot bigger than Guerrero who's only had one fight north of 135 against a powerful but unskilled Aydin.
Berto will swarm him and Guerrero will have to survive the first 5 rounds until Berto gasses.
I'll take Berto in that.
As for Senchenko... he's just trash that I can't touch... and when you get KO'd by Paulie and his jab.... I don't view you highly

Bout to watch the Hatton-Senchenko fight. So glad that its on tv over here. Berto-Guerrero tonight. What a lovely day for boxing.

**hougigo** · 11-24-12, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by Mercersux

Bout to watch the Hatton-Senchenko fight. So glad that its on tv over here. Berto-Guerrero tonight. What a lovely day for boxing.

Turned incredibly bleak... I hope Hatton doesn't commit suicide... I really do. He looked really bad after that.
I can't blame him though. he's been through a lot of drug and alcohol abuse and that big weight drop.
I thought he'd win, but Senchenko proved me wrong

**Mercersux** · 11-24-12, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Turned incredibly bleak... I hope Hatton doesn't commit suicide... I really do. He looked really bad after that.
I can't blame him though. he's been through a lot of drug and alcohol abuse and that big weight drop.
I thought he'd win, but Senchenko proved me wrong

Yeah i mean Hatton 3 years ago even after Pacman & Mayweather would have beaten Senchenko handily. The three years in between i think has done him in. I was shocked that Hatton is only 34 though. Thought he was 37 or so. I don't think he'll do anything as extreme as suicide since he seems to have it together a bit more than he did. Decent looking broad (fiance) looking nauseous at ring side was too funny. Apparently she had plenty reason to be huh? Welp, after SC- Clemson get some Berto-Guerrero. PUMPED !!!

**hougigo** · 12-04-12, 02:44 PM

Gesta vs Vasquez this weekend will be a tricky fight and maybe a trap.
I say this because Gesta is unproven as shit, he hasn't fought anybody in the top 100 for LW and he's jumping to a top 3 fighter. Vasquez has more movement and he's awkward, Gesta has faced nobody like this before. He seems unmotivated and meh on his stamina in all his fights.
Vasquez had a SD recently, but Quintero is above Gesta in my book.
Vasquez will frustrate Gesta while Gesta will be aggressive and try to push the action.
Now I say this is a trap because Gesta is Arum's new pet Filipino and there's no way he's looking for him to lose. So Arum might use his influence to get homeboy a decision. I don't know what the line will be, but look for the over and Gesta to win by decision.... not because he earned it but because Arum wants him to win

**hougigo** · 12-05-12, 01:31 PM

Ummm, Pac and Marquez over 10.5 is only -265?
Yes please.
These guys have gone 36 rounds with each other and that doesn't look to change now. I mean, their best chances of either of them getting a KO was long ago. Both have lost their steps and this will undoubtedly go the distance. Take the -265 while it's good... I think it might be 300+ by fight night

Over 10.5 @ -265

**hougigo** · 12-05-12, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Gesta vs Vasquez this weekend will be a tricky fight and maybe a trap.
I say this because Gesta is unproven as shit, he hasn't fought anybody in the top 100 for LW and he's jumping to a top 3 fighter. Vasquez has more movement and he's awkward, Gesta has faced nobody like this before. He seems unmotivated and meh on his stamina in all his fights.
Vasquez had a SD recently, but Quintero is above Gesta in my book.
Vasquez will frustrate Gesta while Gesta will be aggressive and try to push the action.
Now I say this is a trap because Gesta is Arum's new pet Filipino and there's no way he's looking for him to lose. So Arum might use his influence to get homeboy a decision. I don't know what the line will be, but look for the over and Gesta to win by decision.... not because he earned it but because Arum wants him to win

If Vasquez is a heavy favorite then I wouldn't mind laying down some on Gesta knowing boxing's shady underground back deals and Arum's desire for another Filipino superstar (he's losing his hold on Donaire).
Speaking of Donaire... expect it to end in an under... Donaire is going to murder Arce

**hougigo** · 12-07-12, 03:09 AM

Betting on the winner of Pac vs Marquez is straight retarded... these guys fight way to close all the time and leaving it in the judges hands is stupid... that's why you bet the rounds.

I'll update my list for Saturday's card as the lines open up.... I'm going to be dropping three units on Saturday night (thanks to NCAA)

Over 10.5 @ -265 Pac vs Marquez .5 units
Fight goes the distance (prop) @ -210 .5 units

Looking at the over for Magee vs Kessler.... very good chance that hits

**Sacrelicious** · 12-07-12, 03:28 AM

I'm down on that +10.5 bet as well, 2 units. I noticed the line for Marquez ITD is around +825, it might be worth a VERY small hedge, maybe 0.2 or so.