Vitooch's Generic MMA Thread

**Vitooch** · 04-05-12, 04:32 PM

I don't think we can constitute Horodecki as a bad bet until we see him fight on Friday. Falcao at -315, Saunders at -315 were both good bets with lots of value, regardless of how steep the odds were.

As for TUF, I am 0-2. Could have had a perfect night of betting last Friday but Jury screwed me. Don't want a big fave to screw me over again, but Chiesa is very impressive. Don't know much about Larsen, but the current line seems too steep. Horodecki+Chiesa seems like a strong play. As does Ueda/Chiesa. I don't love playing big favorite parlays unless I am absolutely sure that both plays are locks.

**Vitooch** · 04-05-12, 05:01 PM

Next play is

2 team parlay:

Ueda -400 / Sandro -180 - Risk 22 to win 20.78

Ueda will outclass Marx on the ground with his excellent BJJ, and Sandro's experience and accurate, missile-like striking will prove to be the deciding edge for him. He can handle Popo in the grappling department, and find his openings to punish Popo on the feer.

**PunisherIND** · 04-05-12, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

I don't think we can constitute Horodecki as a bad bet until we see him fight on Friday. Falcao at -315, Saunders at -315 were both good bets with lots of value, regardless of how steep the odds were.

its a bad bet if you're making the bet even though you acknowledge the value is on the other side. (not talking about you in particular, just in concept). personally, i dont think horodecki or chiesa are worth -400, but i will probably still make that parlay.

obviously we can tell whether it was a good or bad bet in retrospect.

**Vitooch** · 04-05-12, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

its a bad bet if you're making the bet even though you acknowledge the value is on the other side. (not talking about you in particular, just in concept). personally, i dont think horodecki or chiesa are worth -400, but i will probably still make that parlay.

obviously we can tell whether it was a good or bad bet in retrospect.

Yes, -400 seems very steep, but I have researched both fighters and come to the conclusion that there is a major disparity in skill level and experience between these fighters, and that Hordodecki will most likely win this fight unless something severe happens. I don't believe there is value in +300. I feel much more confident putting my money on Lima, whom I got at +300 than a Richman who has built a record off beating scrubs in the Minnesota circuit. I was very willing to pay the juice for Falcao, Saunders, and even Curran if i didn't bet him winning ITD at better odds. All plays ended up being good plays despite how steep the odds are. I admit that Horodecki at -400 is a little more extreme a play, and that is why I am waiting a bit for this line to move down. But I still am very willing to pay the juice here. but I'm not a perfect capper, I have been right about big favorites recently because of the extensive research I have done.

**Vitooch** · 04-05-12, 07:16 PM

Added A UFC on Fuel TV play:

Gustafsson/Silva won't go 3 round distance -165 (Risking 33 to win 20)

The chance neither guy gets caught in an exchange or that Gustafsson doesn't catch Silva in a sub is much higher than the odds indicate.

**Vitooch** · 04-05-12, 08:02 PM

Another Bellator 64 play:

Rodrigo Lima (Risking 27.50 to win 22.50)

Nakamura has fought better competition but, Lima is impressive nonetheless. He sets a very agressive and wild pace which may prove overwhelming for the more technical and patient Nakamura. He also has good takedowns and BJJ, with relentless GnP and solid submission game. As much as Nakamura has faced better competition than Lima has, he also has a few suspect losses against below .500 fighters. Lima will impress people tomorrow.

**Libert1ne** · 04-05-12, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Another Bellator 64 play:

Rodrigo Lima (Risking 27.50 to win 22.50)

Nakamura has fought better competition but, Lima is impressive nonetheless. He sets a very agressive and wild pace which may prove overwhelming for the more technical and patient Nakamura. He also has good takedowns and BJJ, with relentless GnP and solid submission game. As much as Nakamura has faced better competition than Lima has, he also has a few suspect losses against below .500 fighters. Lima will impress people tomorrow.

Playing Lima here aswell. I think he'll adjust just fine to Nakamura. I don't really like betting on Japanese fighters haha.

Also probably throwing small dog money on Marx and I'm going to be pounding the shit out of Sandro @ -180.

**Libert1ne** · 04-05-12, 11:58 PM

no homo

**Vitooch** · 04-06-12, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by Libert1ne

Playing Lima here aswell. I think he'll adjust just fine to Nakamura. I don't really like betting on Japanese fighters haha.

Also probably throwing small dog money on Marx and I'm going to be pounding the shit out of Sandro @ -180.

I really like Sandro in this matchup also. Sandro's grappling credentials, and superior striking gives him a big edge. Popo is one of the best prospects in Bellator with a bright future but Sandro is on a mission to rematch Curran. -180 is great value. I think I will make an additional play straight up play on him to go along with a Ueda/Sandro parlay.

This is a terrible matchup for Marx stylistically. His only chance of winning this fight is stuffing all of Ueda's takedown attempts and outstriking him, which is very unlikely.

**Hannibal** · 04-06-12, 12:06 AM

wouldnt call nakamura patient...he presses forward for the takedown and is quite aggressive with it

lima seems susceptible to takedowns

**Vitooch** · 04-06-12, 12:22 AM

Perhaps watching clips of Lima bullrushing his opponents clouded my judgement. What I should have articulated more clearly is that Nakamura seems like the much more technical, patient, and intelligent fighter comparatively speaking.

I will take Lima's raw talent, athleticism and aggression over Nakamura's more technical style. Takedowns are a concern but Nakamura's top game and ground control is nothing to ride home about.

**Vitooch** · 04-06-12, 12:30 AM

After rewatching some footage of Lima, I noticed that Lima is actually very efficient off his back. He seems to prefer to stand or be on top but he has a very active and threatening guard.

**Vitooch** · 04-06-12, 12:53 AM

I will give a summary of all my plays for tomorrow. I will probably add on more during the fights.

Bellator 64 Plays:

Douglas Lima +300: Risking 20 to win 60
Sandro -180 / Ueda -400: Risking 22 to win 20.78
Rodrigo Lima: Risking 27.50 to win 22.50

Will probably be adding a straight up bet on Sandro, and maybe a parlay with Mike Chiesa. Really wish Bookmaker allowed me to add Horodecki to a parlay.

Bellator 60-63 were all profitable events for me. I really think I am starting to get a hang of this shit. Doing extensive research on each fight, focusing on opening lines and value in odds really pays dividends.

**Grabaka** · 04-06-12, 04:03 AM

Not even one of Ratinho's opponents has a winning record and close to 50% of them have under 3 fights total.
Im on Nakamura.

**bjpenn85** · 04-06-12, 11:29 AM

very difficult fight to predict. On paper nakamura without a doubt have the best record fighting much tougher competition. On paper this seems like one the years biggest mismatches. However from what i have seen on you tube clips i am quite impressed by the way he fights and the pressure he puts on people. Probably not going to play either guy, but as you said, if i was to pick, i would go for nakamura

**Vitooch** · 04-06-12, 11:37 AM

May I note that although there is a huge disparity in level of competition between the two, Nakamura has losses againt fighters with the records of 8-13, 12-10, and 6-7.

**Vitooch** · 04-06-12, 08:14 PM

Eek this has been a disastrous night so far...really need Lima to pull through

Added Sandro (-140) - Risking 21 to win 15

**NunyaBidness** · 04-06-12, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Eek this has been a disastrous night so far...really need Lima to pull through

Added Sandro (-140) - Risking 21 to win 15

The gambling gods always punish us when our confidence is at the highest.

Just remember its one long game, and thinking of winning or losing any individual card doesn't matter at all.

**Vitooch** · 04-06-12, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

The gambling gods always punish us when our confidence is at the highest.

Just remember its one long game, and thinking of winning or losing any individual card doesn't matter at all.

I know what went wrong for this card. I don't regret taking Rodrigo, but I really regret taking him at those odds. I expected to make a dog play on him, but he opened as a favorite but took him anyway because I was greedy and wanted the action. Also, I regret taking Ueda at those odds. You guys warned me that there was no value there but I took him also for the action. I need to show a little more patience and focus on where there is value.

Witht that being said, if Lima wins, I am up for the night haha.

**Vitooch** · 04-06-12, 09:59 PM

Can't help but to be impressed by Askren's wrestling.

This was a sloppy, amatuerish night for me. The last minute Sandro bet and Douglas Lima at +300 were the only bets I don't regret. Should haved stayed away from Rodrigo Lima as the fave, and I threw Ueda in a parlay even though I knew there was no value at those odds.

I already have one play in mind for Bellator 65, but I know now not to play him unless the value is absolutely there. I already have a prop bet placed in Gustafsson/Silva won't go three round distance at -165 which I really like. Also have a few plays in mind for that event also. Cheers.

**Libert1ne** · 04-07-12, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Can't help but to be impressed by Askren's wrestling.

This was a sloppy, amatuerish night for me. The last minute Sandro bet and Douglas Lima at +300 were the only bets I don't regret. Should haved stayed away from Rodrigo Lima as the fave, and I threw Ueda in a parlay even though I knew there was no value at those odds.

I already have one play in mind for Bellator 65, but I know now not to play him unless the value is absolutely there. I already have a prop bet placed in Gustafsson/Silva won't go three round distance at -165 which I really like. Also have a few plays in mind for that event also. Cheers.

I had a terrible start aswell. I was down about 5 units going into the sandro fight, noticed the line, and dumped another 8 units on him at -145. Also pounded Askren/Lima over 3.5.

In the end I came out on top by 4 units but I was unhappy with my bets in hindsight. Wish I would have played askren at -215 haha.

**Vitooch** · 04-07-12, 01:38 AM

Obviously in hindsight everyone wishes they played Askren, especially when that initial line starting dropping so hard. But, I really don't mind my play on Lima. No one hits everyone one of their dog plays. I am atleast satisfied that I got him at a good price, as opposed to Rodrigo Lima who I capped as a dog but chose to play anyway when he stayed the favorite.

I should have just stuck with the two plays where I truly saw value in, Lima at +300 and Sandro at -150.

**Beelzebubzy** · 04-07-12, 01:02 PM

Wow askrens wrestling is Top 3 in WW. He has pillow hands though

**helpplease** · 04-07-12, 01:29 PM

I always bet against Japanese guys .. especially when they come from Japan to USA !!

made a $100 bet on Marx vs Ueda and made $442 in profit just from that bet alone

**Vitooch** · 04-07-12, 01:45 PM

I thought one of two of the Asian fighters would win. Too bad i picked the wrong one...

**Vitooch** · 04-12-12, 05:18 AM

Welcome back The Hoff and other regulars from your 1 month and a half hiatus. The UFC spring break really sucked. I never thought I'd ever miss the voice of Goldie, but this was a long and grueling break and I cannot wait for Saturday. But with that being said, there is an MMA event on Friday, and it is a damn good one at that. I know some of you guys like sticking with capping the UFC, but you can profit from these Bellator cards. Before last Friday, I didn't have a night in the red since UFC on Fuel TV 1.

But enough about me, let's get to the picks bitches. I already mentioned the Gustafsson/Silva not going the distance bet that was has already been placed. I mean, how could this fight not go the distance? Gus has a reach and technical striking advantage, and a history of finishing fights, whether by TKO or sub. He could very well sub a gassed Silva, or finish him with a flurry of strikes (which I really hope happens, considering how much of a fan I am of Gus, and how much I dislike Thiago). With that being said, I'm not counting out Silva and his heavy hands and nasty GnP. Gus ITD is a good bet also, but I like the value in the safer bet here.

I also have some Bellator 65 picks. I'm hoping I have a great Friday night so I have a sufficient amount of money to spend on Nunes, Deblass, Macquire, etc. on Saturday night.

My first play is:

Makovsky -115: (Risking 23 to win 20)

Dantas is a fighter currently on fire. In the quarterfinals, he crushed Reis with one of the nastiest knees I've seen in a while. He went on to win a close decision to the always tough Ed West, and a decision victory against the Olympian Alexis Villa, his most impressive win. Dantas has a great repertoire of striking...knees, leg kicks, solid boxing. He is also very good off his back. Dantas prefers to stand, but the Nova Unao fighter is very capable of his back. Villa was able to take Dantas down, but had plenty of trouble keeping the slick Dantas down.

With that being said, Makovsky is one of the most underrated fighters in Bellator, perhaps in all of MMA at 135. Granted, he hasn't defended his title against a killer like Dantas, he has looked very impressive ever since winning the vacant belt against Ed West. First of all, Makovsky is an absolute beat physically. He is a small, "fun-sized" 135er, but he packs a tremendous amount of power and explosiveness. His wrestling is excellent, possessing one of the best single-leg takedowns in MMA. But he isn't just a great wrestler. What makes this guys so dangerous is his top game...excellent guard passing, excellent submission defense, a good submission game, solid GnP. Dantas isn't exactly a submission specialist, and considering Makovsky's top game, I think Dantas's best chance is a spectacular KO when Makovsky closes the distance standing. However, Makovsky knows that an overpursuit may leav an opening for Dantas to blast him with knee. Makovsky has always fought intelligently and carefully and ride out a decision. I just don't think Makovsky will have any trouble taking Dantas down, especially in the later rounds when both fighters aren't fresh. Makovsky should be able keep Dantas down and keep in there with his strong top game. I bought into the Lima hype coming into last Friday's title fight. A Dantas play makes sense considering how this guys is coming off a spectacular KO win against and a few impressive showings in the 135. However, he's the type of fighter who has perhaps received too much hype like Patriky Freire, Lima, and are overvalued or overestimated. Dantas has never faced a fighter as well-rounded and as overwhelmingly strong, athletic, and technically sound as Makovsky.

More picks to come.

**Vitooch** · 04-13-12, 02:02 AM

Ok here's my second play for tomorrow's card:

Alexis Vila -175 (Risking 32.04):

Best value of the card in my opinion. I'm sill shocked this line hasn't moved to -200. Seems like everyone is on Vila.

In his 40s, Vila is unbelievably strong and athletic for his age. He proved in the Joe Warren fight that he has knockout power, but his real strength is in his wrestling (Vila was a bronze medalist in freestyle wrestling). Nogueira is a Brazilian wrestling champ, but his wrestling is clearly inferior. Ed West, who has admitted that wrestling is the weakest aspect of his game, was able to take Nogueira down. Vila should have no trouble grabbing a double leg against the cage and slamming Nog to the canvas. May I also note that Nogueira is not very good off his back. Surprisingly, the Brazilian's martial arts base is wrestling, and has hadn't extensive training in BJJ. Nog has just never impressed me, while Vila was a close decision loss away from winning the tournament.

**The Fobfather** · 04-13-12, 02:05 AM

Gluck with the picks tonight, Vitooch!

**Vitooch** · 04-13-12, 02:25 AM

Thanks. Feeling good about this card. Feel like I have 3 winners on my hand.

I also added Barbosa at +177 (Risking 10). Dont think Mccray should be this heavily favorited. I see this fight ending in a close decision, and hopefully Barbosa's superior BJJ and maybe standup will give hin the nod.

**The HOFF** · 04-13-12, 04:15 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Thanks. Feeling good about this card. Feel like I have 3 winners on my hand.

I also added Barbosa at +177 (Risking 10). Dont think Mccray should be this heavily favorited. I see this fight ending in a close decision, and hopefully Barbosa's superior BJJ and maybe standup will give hin the nod.

Good luck man. I also think Barbosa is the play. I just hope McCray doesn't win with 3 rounds of takedowns.

**Vitooch** · 04-13-12, 06:54 PM

McCray wins a decision for laying in Barbosa's card, while Barbosa actually achieves dominant positions on top.

There was value in +177

**Vitooch** · 04-13-12, 09:09 PM

Ugh. Another horrible night.

1 pending play tomorrow.

**Vitooch** · 04-20-12, 02:21 AM

Whatsup guys...Haven't really been posting on the threads since last weekend, when I went 0-4, including a pathetic performance by Alexis Vila, and a very close split-decision loss by Barbosa against McCray

I decided to take a break capping this weekend and devote the rest of this month to my schoolwork. Being that it is finals week soon, I will be very busy, but fortunately I will have much more time and money to devote to MMA capping over the summer.

Looking forward to getting back to posting and killing the books this summer. Good luck on your picks this weekend.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 04-20-12, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Whatsup guys...Haven't really been posting on the threads since last weekend, when I went 0-4, including a pathetic performance by Alexis Vila, and a very close split-decision loss by Barbosa against McCray

I decided to take a break capping this weekend and devote the rest of this month to my schoolwork. Being that it is finals week soon, I will be very busy, but fortunately I will have much more time and money to devote to MMA capping over the summer.

Looking forward to getting back to posting and killing the books this summer. Good luck on your picks this weekend.

Right on man, handle your biz at school - priorities come first. See you around and Gl with the books - both in and outta school!

**The HOFF** · 04-21-12, 02:01 AM

Tell us the truth. You had to get at least one little bet in this weekend, didn't you?