Vitooch's Generic MMA Thread

gabe · 02-15-12, 01:38 PM

HOLLLLLLLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!

I think Menjivar/Brookins would be a better parlay-- I wouldn't put Dillashaw in both, if I were you. I think Watson could finish him.

Vitooch · 02-15-12, 01:39 PM

I actually am making a small dog play on Albert

Vitooch · 02-15-12, 01:41 PM

Simpson EV: Risking 15 to win 15
Parlay #3: Stipe/Dillashaw/Simpson : Risking 15 to win 33.21
Albert +155: Risking 15 to win 23.25

Vitooch · 02-15-12, 01:55 PM

Hedging my Dillashaw bets with Watson by TKO/KO at +500: Risking 10 to win 50

bjpenn85 · 02-15-12, 02:02 PM

you can get watson by TKO + 1100 @ 5dimes. I think that has some value with watsons reach and with dillashaws limited experience.

Vitooch · 02-15-12, 02:07 PM

WOW +1100 right now? I only have money on bookmaker at the amount but would be an excellent play especially since I have so many parlays with Dillashaw. I really see Dillashaw winning this fight, though.

Vitooch · 02-15-12, 02:15 PM

Parlay #4: Brookins/Simpson: Risk 10 to win 19.76

Vitooch · 02-15-12, 02:18 PM

One more:

Dillashaw by TKO/KO +265: Risking 10 to win 26.50

Beelzebubzy · 02-15-12, 02:40 PM

How big of a play are these? is 10 bucks 1% of your roll?

Vitooch · 02-15-12, 03:01 PM

I'm actually risking a huge percent of my bankroll tonight. I'm not in the financial position to be capping beyond my means so only put 200 in my bankroll for this and hopefully future events.
Just trying to do the best capping I can with what I have, and I dont really have much lol.

Vitooch · 02-15-12, 09:59 PM

Going to completely turn heel and take Herman

Herman -115: Risking 28.75 to win 25

Vitooch · 02-15-12, 10:34 PM

****. Should have stuck with my instinct and took Struve.

Im making a small play on Sanchez at +315

PunisherIND · 02-16-12, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

****. Should have stuck with my instinct and took Struve.

Im making a small play on Sanchez at +315

damn man. and you were off to a hot start too.

Vitooch · 02-16-12, 03:03 AM

It was the Simpson loss that killed me. I would have been well up on the day if he would have won.

Should have only bet him SU and not included him in two other parlays. Herman and Sanchez were bad degen plays.

Beelzebubzy · 02-16-12, 09:13 AM

What were your final results?

Vitooch · 02-16-12, 10:12 AM

I was down 40 after the Simpson loss. Shoulda stopped but the degen in me chased the public fave Herman and Sanchez. Ended up down 80. Lots of unfortunate shit happened last night like Albert, Simpson and Dillashaw not getting the finishes. Anyone of those three fights could have put me atleast even for the night but i took a small hit and made it worse

Vitooch · 02-16-12, 10:16 AM

My problem is tht i included Simpson in too many parlays when I should have just played him SU at those odds. Also, i never caught Ellenberger's opening line and didnt want to lay that much juice on fight night. I also thought Struve was going to win but took Herman because the SBR regulars were backing Herman so hard.

Looking forward to jumping on the opening lines for UFC 144.

Vitooch · 03-15-12, 05:40 PM

Took a break after a disappointing UFC on Fuel TV (Simpson ****** up what could have been a great night) and came back with a great Bellator 60.

Only one play for Bellator 61:

Rogers +130 (got a shitty number, only have a bookmaker account currently)

DSSCA · 03-15-12, 06:43 PM

I took Rogers at +130 also, but it's in a 2 fight parlay with Paraisy

hehe. I know Maiquel should smash him, but who knows with that guy! Never know what kind of fighter might show up that night. It's a longshot at 1.85 to win 13.68... but it will be fun watching!

Was all over Santos/Prindle ITD but will have to wait now. Giva by armbar is interesting if it's a prop anywhere... Excited for the UFC card!

Vitooch · 03-15-12, 07:55 PM

What were the odds for Prindle Santos ITD? I really like Santos ITD for anything lower than -200

PunisherIND · 03-15-12, 09:10 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

What were the odds for Prindle Santos ITD? I really like Santos ITD for anything lower than -200

the best i saw for (fight) itd was -310. didnt see a line for santos itd, or prindle itd.

Vitooch · 03-15-12, 09:23 PM

Ew I don't like -310 at all. Both guys gassing and Santos stalling on top is def a possibility.

omalley21 · 03-15-12, 11:31 PM

Prindle santos opened at ITD -230 from what I saw. I'm on rogers too. GL!

Vitooch · 03-16-12, 12:28 AM

Really wish I had some money on my 5Dimes account. They usually are one of the first books to release opening MMA lines, especially props like ITD and by KO, sub. They opened Warren/Curran not going the distance at like -105, and Curran ITD at -111.

And yea, haven't really looked into this card too much. Not that many resources available for researching the fighters. The two fights I did look into were Vianna/Rodgers and Santos/Prindle. Why Vitor opened at -170 is beyond me. His striking is decent, but far inferior to Rodgers. Also, his wrestling is not very good. I have a tough time seeing Vitor take down the much more athletic Rodgers. I see him eating Rodger's crisp and explosive striking all fight.

Vitooch · 03-16-12, 01:24 AM

After finding out that Big Rig's opponent is the French guy that quit on TUF, I decided to pay the juice and take Falcao straight up at -315.

Summary of Plays for Bellator 61: (And yes I know my bankroll is pathetically low, don't ******* remind me)

Brian Rogers +130 Risking 15 to win 19.50

Maiquel Falcao -315 Risking 94.50 to win 30

I would have preferred to parlay Falcao with someone else from the card but I'm not nearly as confident in any other fighter.

Vitooch · 03-16-12, 10:04 PM

Great night. Falcao got me nervous with his tom-foolery but Im glad to have won both fights. There is money to be made with these bellator events.

Anyone see that ******* brutal knee on TUF? Wasnt expected that.

Vitooch · 03-21-12, 01:42 PM

Bellator 62:

So far I have Llloyd Woodard +265: Risking 10

Freire has established himself as an impressive, technical KO artist, but Woodard is incredibly tough, and heavy handed. I could see Woodard supplying ample pressure (like he so often does to his opponents) on Freire and catching him in an exchange. Also, for what it's worth, Woodard has been working extensively in his wrestling after a disappointing loss to Chandler and a knee surgery that sidelined him a few months ago. It appears that Freire's biggest weakness is his wreslting, so Woodard may find success with relentless clinch work against the cage and dirty boxing. The key for Woodard is to avoid getting into a technical standup fight, where Pitbull can work his angles and find openings. Woodard needs to set an overwhelming pace and make this a scrappy brawl, which I think he will be able to.

Not liking the current Santos line. We'll see what the prop bets for that fight are

Vitooch · 03-21-12, 01:53 PM

TUF Live:

Marcello +155

Lawrence impressed everybody in his fight to get into the house but -215 is absolutely crazy in my opinion. I am very willing to lay money on the experienced BJJ veteran as the underdog. I don't think Lawrence will be able to handle Marcello if he is put on his back. Marcello proved how much of a killer Marcello can be when he is on top working his BJJ game.

Vitooch · 03-22-12, 01:22 PM

****, made the mistake of jumping on opening lines instead of waiting for them to move first. Got bad numbers for Marcello (got him at +155 when I could have taken him not at +175). Won't make that stupid mistake again.

Summary of Bellator 62 plays:

Rick Hawn -200 (Risking 41) - I think Rick Hawn's strength in the clinch and his top game will prove too overwhelming for Torloni. Torloni is always dangerous off his back but I think Hawn will be able to finish Torloni off with GnP or ride a decision with his crushing power and top game.

J.J Ambrose +215 (Risking 10) - This might be my most favorite play of the night. Ambrose is making his Bellator debut against a Bellator veteran in Weedman. Ambrose has solid wrestling, and a strong BJJ top game. While Weedman does have solid judo, he identifies more as a Dutch MT kickboxer. I think that Ambrose will be able to drag Weedman to the ground when Weedman overcommits in a standup exchange. There on the ground Ambrose has a good shot of advancing position and threatening with submissions. Weedman has a history of being on the bad end of a submission and Ambrose is well-versed in submissions, specifically the RNC.

Woodard +265

Vitooch · 03-23-12, 11:41 PM

I was silly for not believing in the Justin Lawrence hype, but I didn't suffer too much for it. My biggest bet Hawn hit as expected, and I was pleasantly surprised to see Woodard hit also after that chaotic round. Overall, another night in the green but a little more patience and research would have gone a long way.

Vitooch · 03-28-12, 03:22 PM

3 straight Bellator events in the green and gunning for 4 on Friday:

Bellator 63:

David Rickels +140: (Risking 15 to win 21)

This line is absolutely absurd to me. Was expecting Rickels in the -170 range. Rickels has won all three of his fights in Bellator by triangle. He has fast hands, a dangerous guard with a sweet triangle, and strong cardio. Jordan Smith will be making his Bellator debut as a late replacement fo Brian Foster. He is a solid, well rounded fighter.... Decent wrestling, decent top game and submssions, but nothing to ride home on. His only notable win was a split decision win against an over the hill and volatile Karo Parisyan.

The line for this fight reminds me of the line for Vianna/Rodgers from Bellator 61. Rickels, like Rodgers, comes off as the much more explosive, and dangerous fighter. Vitor's chance of winning was solely dependent on whether he would be able to take Rodgers down. Smith will also need to grind a decision on top with his wrestling if he expects to have any chance, but with Rickels dangerous guard, I'm not sure he will eb able to even win by that method. So, why the **** is Smith a favorite, especially a -170 fave? Can anyone explain?

Vaughany · 03-28-12, 03:26 PM

See other thread!

Vitooch · 03-28-12, 04:02 PM

TUF Live:

Jury -170 (to win 20)

Hoping I can get back in the green for TUF after losing my Marcello bet last week. The line for Jury is in the -200's in other books so I will gladly take the -170. Not going to lie, I don't know as much about Jury or Iaquinta as I usually do. What I do know is: Jury is one of the most hyped fighters of the season after he was sidelined from TUF 13 after impressing the UFC brass and viewers alike. Also, I know a few other trusted cappers maxed out on this opening line which is good enough for me. Wish Bookmaker had parlays so I could parlay Jury with Saunders.

Vitooch · 03-28-12, 05:03 PM

This one is silly but

Saunders -315 (to win 10)

With my pathetically small bankroll this is the only play I can make. Bookmaker does not offer parlays, and Bookmaker does not offer ITD props, otherwise I would have been all over Saunders ITD. This is a lock for me. Wish I would have gotten Saunders at under -300 but this will do...I've mentioned this in other threads but Saunders MT+huge reach+BJJ, will be too much for the shorter stockier, less technical Amaya. Saunders will most likely finish this fight, whether it is on the ground with GnP or submissions or standing.