Vitooch's Generic MMA Thread

[Vitooch]

WOW dodged a massive ******* bullet in the Melendez fight...I'm shocked how much he was favored, and how close the fight ending up being (as was most people here). Cormier was a play I've been eyeing for a while. Was as confident as I can be in a +100 play...Probably could have avoided the Melendez ITD play...Had a successful Friday in Bellator and was very fortunate to be in the green tonight...

Crossing my fingers that Thunder pulls this off

[Vitooch]

After last weekend's wonderful weekend of Bellator/Strikeforce where I won big with such plays as Jessica Aguilar at +190, and Cormier at +100, I bring you more plays for what should be another great weekend of MMA. I took some big hits this week with some bad NBA plays, but I'm hoping to make up for it with a solid showing starting with Bellator and TUF tonight...

5/25/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Mike Chiesa +130* vs James Vick

5/25/12 8:00pm Bellator Fighting 2301 Derek Campos +155*vs Rich Clementi

				Pending	5/25/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Al Iaquinta -180* vs Vinc Pichel
				Pending	5/26/12 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Glover Teixeira -225* vs Kyle Kingsbury

5/25/12 9:00pm Bellator Fighting 2101 Brent Weedman +350*vs Rick Hawn

5/25/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Mike Chiesa +130*vs James Vick

3 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/20/12 3:30pm Props Basketball 15104 Field wins Eastern Conference -345* vs Boston Celtics win Eastern Conf
				Pending	5/26/12 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Junior Dos Santos -525* vs Frank Mir
				Pending	5/26/12 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Edson Barboza -520* vs Jamie Varner

[Vitooch]

I really like Chiesa at +130. Vick impressed me last week against Proctor....he used his huge reach advantage well and easily avoided Proctor's telegraphed right hand and takedown attempts. I'm afraid, however, he's overvalued here. Chiesa is a much different opponent stylistically than Proctor, an opponent with a fighting style that is much more threatening to Vick's rangy muay thai style. Chiesa is much longer than Proctor, so reach won't be as big of a factor as it was in Vick's last fight. Also, he will be facing a more grappling-minded fighter who won't hesitate to grab a hold of Vick, pin him against the cage, and work for takedowns. If Chiesa can close the distance, then I don't see the much better wrestler in Chiesa having trouble putting Vick on his back, working him on the ground and possibly submitting Vick. I don't see Chiesa attempting to stand with Vick too long, maybe just as a distraction in order to work for a takedown. Chiesa knows his strengths, and should be able to solve Vick's reach advantage after seeing him fight twice already.

[Vitooch]

Brent Weedman at +350 seems like a solid dog play. Weedman is a much smarter, more well-rounded fighter than Hawn's last two opponents. Weedman doesn't blow me away with his raw talent or athleticism. So far in this tournament, he has acknowledged his opponent's weaknesses, and executed a fundamentally sound strategy, mostly grappling based. Weedman having the solid chin he does, I don't think Hawn will be able to overwhelm Weedman with his heavy-handed strikes standing and put him away like Hawn put his previous two opponent's away. While the judo expert Hawn grinding Weedman for a 3 round decision is a good possibility, we haven't seen Hawn's cardio at this weight class. If Weedman can survive Hawn's early blitzkrieg, which I think the tough Weedman will, he should be able to stick around and possibly steal a close split decision. I would side with Hawn in this matchup, but I don't think the odds correctly indicate what I considered the proper implied probabilities for this fight. I see this fight closer to 70/30. Weedman got to the finals for a reason, he deserves a little more respect from this oddsmakers in my opinion.

I also took Campos. Bellator may call Clementi an experienced veteran, but anyone who has seen him fight of late knows Clementi is on the downside of his MMA career. Clementi weighed in a few pounds overweight. Just can't see nearly as much motivation to win from Clementi who is coming off a few uninspired performances against the much younger Campos.

[gabe]

Brent Weedman at +350 seems like a solid dog play. Weedman is a much smarter, more well-rounded fighter than Hawn's last two opponents. Weedman doesn't blow me away with his raw talent or athleticism. So far in this tournament, he has acknowledged his opponent's weaknesses, and executed a fundamentally sound strategy, mostly grappling based. Weedman having the solid chin he does, I don't think Hawn will be able to overwhelm Weedman with his heavy-handed strikes standing and put him away like Hawn put his previous two opponent's away. While the judo expert Hawn grinding Weedman for a 3 round decision is a good possibility, we haven't seen Hawn's cardio at this weight class. If Weedman can survive Hawn's early blitzkrieg, which I think the tough Weedman will, he should be able to stick around and possibly steal a close split decision. I would side with Hawn in this matchup, but I don't think the odds correctly indicate what I considered the proper implied probabilities for this fight. I see this fight closer to 70/30. Weedman got to the finals for a reason, he deserves a little more respect from this oddsmakers in my opinion.

I also took Campos. Bellator may call Clementi an experienced veteran, but anyone who has seen him fight of late knows Clementi is on the downside of his MMA career. Clementi weighed in a few pounds overweight. Just can't see nearly as much motivation to win from Clementi who is coming off a few uninspired performances against the much younger Campos.

Those are actually my only Bellator plays, too. Thinking alike. GL

[Vitooch]

Also considering taking Nakamura at +190...any thoughts on that fight gabe?

[gabe]

Also considering taking Nakamura at +190...any thoughts on that fight gabe?

I like Nog.

[gabe]

Prindle is worth a gamble, too. Sheeeeiiiiiiit.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Prindle is worth a gamble, too. Sheeeeiiiiiiit.

no he's not they're on the same team it's basically set up for prindle to lose any which way you cut it, there is no chance of victory for prindle

[Vitooch]

I like Nog.

I do too, but at -250, I'm not sure if I want to lay that much juice. Nakamura has better MMA grappling than Nog's last opponent Vila. This fight can come down to who steals the round with takedowns. I don't think either fighter will be able to finish the other. I guess the over sounds like a better play but I hate betting on over/unders.

[gabe]

I do too, but at -250, I'm not sure if I want to lay that much juice. Nakamura has better MMA grappling than Nog's last opponent Vila. This fight can come down to who steals the round with takedowns. I don't think either fighter will be able to finish the other. I guess the over sounds like a better play but I hate betting on over/unders.

I think Nog could finish.

[Vitooch]

Nakamura has a solid chin and great sub defense. Nog isn't particularly heavy-handed.

[Vitooch]

5/25/12 8:30pm Bellator Fighting 2201 Hiroshi Nakamura +220*vs Luis Nogueira

I initially expected to play Nog, assuming his opening line would be closer to a slight fave or perhaps evens. After seeing where this line has ended up, I think there is more value in Nakamura as the dog at +220 (think this fight is 60/40, MAYBE 65/35).

Both fighters have very good TDD, Nakamura with his judo and Nog with his wrestling. On the feet, Nog may have an advantage with having a slightly more versatile striking arsenal (more of a muay thai style). But "Iron" is resilient, with a solid chin, very good sub defense. If he can find some success standing, and maybe steal rounds with late takedowns, he can win a close decision here.

[gabe]

I think Nog could finish.

Respek.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Respek.

Campos+Weedman+Mayhem+Barboza+Lavar

$30 to win $958

LOL

[gabe]

LOL

A dude who told everyone to bet Shalorus over Dos Anjos is trying to mock me for not winning a $30 to win $958 parlay? ahahahhahaah this is almost too good to be true

[Imsmarterthanu]

A dude who told everyone to bet Shalorus over Dos Anjos is trying to mock me for not winning a $30 to win $958 parlay? ahahahhahaah this is almost too good to be true

You mean you lost your 30 dollars ? awwww that's so sad ...

[Imsmarterthanu]

Prindle is worth a gamble, too. Sheeeeiiiiiiit.

[gabe]

yeah i lost $30 lollllllllllllllllll i made 5 figures on the Fuel TV 3 card, this $30 i just lost on a long-shot parlay really hurt me... you really are smarter than me/everyone. your username is very fitting.

[Imsmarterthanu]

yeah i lost $30 lollllllllllllllllll i made 5 figures on the Fuel TV 3 card, this $30 i just lost on a long-shot parlay really hurt me... you really are smarter than me/everyone. your username is very fitting.

[Vitooch]

Respek.

Good call there...wish the line was better for Nog, definitely would have played him.

Didn't get to see the TUF fights. Glad Chiesa won. Shouldn't have played Campos and "Iron"...Fine with the Weedman play

[Imsmarterthanu]

Good call there...wish the line was better for Nog, definitely would have played him.

Didn't get to see the TUF fights. Glad Chiesa won. Shouldn't have played Campos and "Iron"...Fine with the Weedman play

yea sure right

fukn noob never even posts his ticket

[Vitooch]

Here are my first few plays for tomorrow...

Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/20/12 3:30pm Props Basketball 15104 Field wins Eastern Conference -345* vs Boston Celtics win Eastern Conf
				Pending	5/26/12 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Junior Dos Santos -525* vs Frank Mir
				Pending	5/26/12 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Edson Barboza -520* vs Jamie Varne

Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Win	5/25/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Al Iaquinta -180* vs Vinc Pichel
				Pending	5/26/12 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Glover Teixeira -225* vs Kyle Kingsbury

Pending

5/26/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1852 Dan Hardy -125* vs Duane Ludwig

Pending

5/26/12 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Jason Miller -140* vs C.B. Dollaway

I feel very stupid for not having JDS by TKO in parlay instead of straight up....really liked that NBA prop though...Boston is an old and tired team. Boston will struggle to even make it to the Finals let alone beat a younger and more talented Miami team. I think this is Dan Hardy's best stylistic matchup in a while. All of Hardy's last few opponents have had a significant grappling advantage (whether it was GSP and Anthony Johnson's superior wrestling, or Lytle BJJ/sub game). Here Hardy possesses a slight wrestling advantage. Remember, he did find success with his wrestling against another pure striker in Marcus Davis. Hardy should be able to mix his heavy handed striking with his ever-improving wrestling to win a solid decision here. There is also a possibility he catches Ludwig in an exchange (Ludwig's chin is suspect). After taking some time to train and recollect himself, I think this is the right time, place, and opponent especially for Hardy to get back on the win column.

Also, I like Mayhem Miller. Grappling is both fighters' strength in this matchup. While Dollaway may possess the better wrestling, Miller's BJJ, off his back and on top is very good. He is very crafty in scrambles, and has a knack for catching opponent's in compromising positions on the ground. If Mayhem can get Jake Shields's back, I see no reason he can't school Dollaway on the ground en route to a submission win.

[Vitooch]

yea sure right

fukn noob never even posts his ticket

Damnit, I knew he was going to eventually stalk my thread.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Damnit, I knew he was going to eventually stalk my thread.

Was he? It looked like you were dropping some not so subtle hints that you wanted people to post in here. He might have been doing you a favour because you looked lonely on a friday night. If you wanna meet people sbr might not be the best place for you. Don't kids like you join a glee club or something for that? lol

[Imsmarterthanu]

You don't even post the amounts you fukn noob

those don't even have ticket numbers on them lamer

[MMAbetMASTA]

LOL...... my feelings exactly with 'gabe's tall tales'.... You document those 5 figures Gabe? I'm guessing no....

[Vitooch]

Was he? It looked like you were dropping some not so subtle hints that you wanted people to post in here. He might have been doing you a favour because you looked lonely on a friday night. If you wanna meet people sbr might not be the best place for you. Don't kids like you join a glee club or something for that? lol

Sure, I would like to here people's thoughts on my picks. Definitely don't want either of you losers posting here though. I actually went out last night...did you? Or are you too busy being unlikeable.

[NunyaBidness]

You don't even post the amounts you fukn noob

those don't even have ticket numbers on them lamer

No way that can be faked.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Sure, I would like to here people's thoughts on my picks. Definitely don't want either of you losers posting here though. I actually went out last night...did you? Or are you too busy being unlikeable.

Cmon your thread was sitting right at the bottom before I bumped it. Would you rather I have not done it?

[Vitooch]

Cmon your thread was sitting right at the bottom before I bumped it. Would you rather I have not done it?

Absolutely.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Absolutely.

Sorry, I won't do it again. It's just that nobody was really posting in your thread, well except to laugh at you after getting pissed on by Yours Truly.

[gabe]

LOL...... my feelings exactly with 'gabe's tall tales'.... You document those 5 figures Gabe? I'm guessing no....

Did I document? LOL Yeah, it's in my account bet history and my text message history on my phone. Went 9-0 on the card, plus hit all prop bets except one. I've posted many tickets on here previously, so you guys know I make large wagers. If you're surprised I made 5 figures off a perfect card like that, then you're a tool.

And I thought you were someone I was cool with... maybe my memory is serving me wrong right now... I went 9-0 and hit all but one of the prop bets I gave out, yet I'm telling tall tales? LOL So many stupid people here... stay out of my thread if you don't like my "tall tales," you two-faced piece of sh*t.

[gabe]

Sorry, I won't do it again. It's just that nobody was really posting in your thread, well except to laugh at you after getting pissed on by Yours Truly.

I read and post in here.

[Vitooch]

Sorry, I won't do it again. It's just that nobody was really posting in your thread, well except to laugh at you after getting pissed on by Yours Truly.

Ok troll ... Did you do anything last night? In your poor attempt to "piss on me", you didnt seem to respond. Or is trolling on MMA forums your only source of entertainment in your sad, pathetic existence??