picks || UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis || by: gabe

**Vaughany** · 01-26-12, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by gabe

No, we weren't "talking about" TJ Grant and Bongfeldt. I just had a laugh about the fact that Grant was submitted by Bongfeldt. That is all. There was no "talk."

That comment I made was irrelevant to Roller's fight with Johnson. It can make you like Johnson more, I guess, but I didn't have that in mind when I made the comment. I just said that Roller looked piss-poor (which he did) against TJ Grant, who was submitted by Bongfeldt. You took that and ran with it, turning it into a huge deal.

Okay fair enough. The tone you took and manner you did it in sounded like you were belittling TJ Grant tho

**Vaughany** · 01-26-12, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

That may be the first time you made me lol

ha As he said, the average comedian only gets one laugh out of every hundred jokes!

**gabe** · 01-26-12, 04:42 PM

Question for the homies--

Say 90% of the public is on Sonnen, at every sportsbook in Vegas, except one. One has over 80% of it's betters betting big on Bisping. Does that sportsbook change the line to Bisping +200 or possibly Bisping -110, or do they still keep him as a huge underdog just 'cos people everywhere else are betting on Sonnen?

**NunyaBidness** · 01-26-12, 04:46 PM

An opinionated book with good resources will probably just let it ride. A smaller book will lay off their action with a bigger book or betting exchange.

The only books that would move their line into arbable range are ones with huge resources. You can see pinnacle do this all the time. Other books will be priced on Fighter A at -200. If pinny likes that line they might move Fighter B to +201.

**gabe** · 01-26-12, 06:10 PM

Respek.

**gabe** · 01-26-12, 06:44 PM

Lavar Johnson +175 > Joey Beltran (4/5)

I see this as the best value play on the entire card. I see Lavar outstriking Beltran for at least 2 out of 3 rounds, so Lavar Johnson +1.5 would be a beautiful play. Lavar Johnson by Decision is a good bet, too, as Beltran is known for his durability/chin. That said, I won't be surprised if Beltran receives the first KO loss of his career Saturday night. If odds on Lavar by KO are good, it's def worth a shot. I expect a solid performance from Lavar; he should win at least 2 of 3 rounds, if not earn a KO.

Vaughany,

**bjpenn85** · 01-26-12, 07:09 PM

Risky bet on lavar there honey, should take him at +190 tho!

**bjpenn85** · 01-26-12, 07:12 PM

no, wait. Play him round 1 or just leave it. He wont win a decision here.

**gabe** · 01-26-12, 07:28 PM

I saw him in a backyard wrestling ladder match last month. He looked sharp.

**NunyaBidness** · 01-26-12, 10:11 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Lavar Johnson +175 > Joey Beltran (4/5)

I see this as the best value play on the entire card. I see Lavar outstriking Beltran for at least 2 out of 3 rounds, so Lavar Johnson +1.5 would be a beautiful play. Lavar Johnson by Decision is a good bet, too, as Beltran is known for his durability/chin. That said, I won't be surprised if Beltran receives the first KO loss of his career Saturday night. If odds on Lavar by KO are good, it's def worth a shot. I expect a solid performance from Lavar; he should win at least 2 of 3 rounds, if not earn a KO.

Lavar just isn't ufc calibre. He gasses quickly and has no ground game. If he doesn't KO Beltran in round 1 I think it's very difficult for him to win. Luckily for him Beltran is very hittable, but Beltran is very capable of taking him down if he wants to fight a smart fight.

**bogbat** · 01-27-12, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Lavar just isn't ufc calibre. He gasses quickly and has no ground game. If he doesn't KO Beltran in round 1 I think it's very difficult for him to win. Luckily for him Beltran is very hittable, but Beltran is very capable of taking him down if he wants to fight a smart fight.

I agree with Nunya here. I'm surprised the UFC even brought him over. I'm more looking forward to Shane Del Rosario's UFC debut. Now there is a prospect with some potential to do well in the UFC.

**The HOFF** · 01-27-12, 01:14 AM

I don't think Lavar Johnson has any cardio. He needs to win early or Beltran will finish him late.

I would also be careful with Dunham. He lost to Sherk's wrestling. He was taken down by Escudero and Griffin. And Lentz just got Lentz'd by Bocek. So I expect Lentz to pull a Lentz against Dunham to get a win.

**sideloaded** · 01-27-12, 01:53 AM

Lavar Johnson = can
Joey Beltran = can crusher

**NunyaBidness** · 01-27-12, 03:36 AM

Originally posted by The HOFF

I don't think Lavar Johnson has any cardio. He needs to win early or Beltran will finish him late.

I would also be careful with Dunham. He lost to Sherk's wrestling. He was taken down by Escudero and Griffin. And Lentz just got Lentz'd by Bocek. So I expect Lentz to pull a Lentz against Dunham to get a win.

That begs the question, can Dunham Sherk Lentz? Or in his case, should I say can Dunham Bocek Lentz if he avoids being Sherked himself?

**gabe** · 01-27-12, 06:59 AM

Lavar looked good in the second round of his last fight where he got subbed.

**Thor4140** · 01-27-12, 10:38 AM

man plus 155 for Roop? I guess i waited one day to long.

**gabe** · 01-27-12, 03:19 PM

Charles Oliveira -500 > Eric Wisely (5/5)

It's silly to call a -500 line a lock. Oliveira is making his featherweight debut here against a
tough but undersized opponent. His best way to victory would be to take him down and dominate on
the ground, looking for a submission. He can pick Wisely apart on the feet, but using his Jiu-Jitsu would
be the safer route; all he's gotta do to win this fight is avoid Wisely's left hand. Charles Olivera
Inside the Distance for a prop bet, also Charles Oliveira via Submission. Put a little something on
Eric Wisely via Knockout to hedge. Prop bets are the way to go with this one, and include him in
parlays; such as--

Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NBA Basketball
Atlanta Hawks 1/27/2012 7:35 PM - (EST)
Money Line -255 for Game
Select #2 : NBA Basketball
Minnesota Timberwolves 1/27/2012 8:05 PM - (EST)
Spread +1 -110 for Game
Select #3 : MMA Martial Arts
Evan Dunham 1/28/2012 7:30 PM - (EST)
Money Line -350 for Game
Select #4 : MMA Martial Arts
George Roop 1/28/2012 6:30 PM - (EST)
Money Line +110 for Game
Select #5 : MMA Martial Arts
Charles Oliveira 1/28/2012 6:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line -500 for Game
Amount : Risking 15.00 To Win 114.17 USD

**gabe** · 01-27-12, 07:11 PM

Wager type : Proposition/Future

Select #1 : Soccer Futures
EURO 2012
Euro 2012 - To win Group A
Russia +125
Risking 100.00 To Win 125.00 USD
Select #2 : Soccer Futures
EURO 2012
Euro 2012 - To win Group B
Germany +105
Risking 100.00 To Win 105.00 USD
Select #3 : Soccer Futures
EURO 2012
Euro 2012 - To win Group C
Spain -180
Risking 180.00 To Win 100.00 USD
Select #4 : Soccer Futures
EURO 2012
Euro 2012 - To win Group D
England +150
Risking 100.00 To Win 150.00 US

**Vaughany** · 01-27-12, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Wager type : Proposition/Future

Select #1 : Soccer Futures
EURO 2012
Euro 2012 - To win Group A
Russia +125
Risking 100.00 To Win 125.00 USD
Select #2 : Soccer Futures
EURO 2012
Euro 2012 - To win Group B
Germany +105
Risking 100.00 To Win 105.00 USD
Select #3 : Soccer Futures
EURO 2012
Euro 2012 - To win Group C
Spain -180
Risking 180.00 To Win 100.00 USD
Select #4 : Soccer Futures
EURO 2012
Euro 2012 - To win Group D
England +150
Risking 100.00 To Win 150.00 US

Nice

I could have a pretty big play on Russia winning tht group.

**gabe** · 01-27-12, 07:42 PM

did u check out chris d'elia?

**Vaughany** · 01-27-12, 07:56 PM

His Keanu Reeves impression was good! Not sure about his English accent tho...sounded like he was impersonating Ali G or trying to do a cockney! Rogan did the worst impression ever of Ali G the other day when he was creaming over Sascha Baron Cohen..was hilarious

**gabe** · 01-27-12, 10:12 PM

haha

**gabe** · 01-27-12, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NBA Basketball
Atlanta Hawks 1/27/2012 7:35 PM - (EST)
Money Line -255 for Game
Select #2 : NBA Basketball
Minnesota Timberwolves 1/27/2012 8:05 PM - (EST)
Spread +1 -110 for Game

Select #3 : MMA Martial Arts
Evan Dunham 1/28/2012 7:30 PM - (EST)
Money Line -350 for Game
Select #4 : MMA Martial Arts
George Roop 1/28/2012 6:30 PM - (EST)
Money Line +110 for Game
Select #5 : MMA Martial Arts
Charles Oliveira 1/28/2012 6:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line -500 for Game
Amount : Risking 15.00 To Win 114.17 USD

**gabe** · 01-27-12, 10:46 PM

**gabe** · 01-27-12, 11:06 PM

Mike Russow -165 > Jon-Olav Einemo (2/5)

Take Mike Russow via Knockout and Einemo Inside the Distance to hedge. Also Fight Does Not Start Round 3. If Einemo doesn't catch Russow early with a shot or submission, he'll be too worn out in the second round and will be put away. If Russow makes it out of the first round, this is his fight. Pretty much betting on Russow to make it out of the first round. Won't be easy. He could get caught early in the first round and come out with a shameful performance in front of his hometown crowd. I'm betting on him to make it out of that first round, though. Or even finish it in the first! Mike Russow by KO, inside the distance, and straight-up! Thank you!

**sideloaded** · 01-28-12, 12:19 AM

I like Russow a lot in this fight too

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 02:37 PM

Took Chris Camozzi at -150. Line dropped way low.

**Oblivian** · 01-28-12, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Charles Oliveira -500 > Eric Wisely (5/5)

It's silly to call a -500 line a lock. Oliveira is making his featherweight debut here against a
tough but undersized opponent. His best way to victory would be to take him down and dominate on
the ground, looking for a submission. He can pick Wisely apart on the feet, but using his Jiu-Jitsu would
be the safer route; all he's gotta do to win this fight is avoid Wisely's left hand. Charles Olivera
Inside the Distance for a prop bet, also Charles Oliveira via Submission. Put a little something on
Eric Wisely via Knockout to hedge. Prop bets are the way to go with this one, and include him in
parlays; such as--

In my opinion, Oliveira is way overpriced in this fight. Wisely has had some tough fights when he was undersized, but that was at 155 lbs against large 155 lbs fighters like Healy. I really don't know if you can say that he's undersized for 145 lbs as it appeared to me he cut quite a bit. I'm not sure he could make 135 lbs. Anyhow, Wisely is crafty. He's great at avoiding damage. I'm not saying that I'm convinced he'll win this fight, but I think -500 is overpriced for Oliveira. I'd also be very hesitant to take Oliveira inside the distance as Wisley has never lost by anything other than decision. IMO, the best bet for that fight is "fight completes one" for -135. Oliveira pushes a tough pace and is a finisher, but Wisley has looked pretty damn competitive even in his losses.

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by Oblivian

In my opinion, Oliveira is way overpriced in this fight. Wisely has had some tough fights when he was undersized, but that was at 155 lbs against large 155 lbs fighters like Healy. I really don't know if you can say that he's undersized for 145 lbs as it appeared to me he cut quite a bit. I'm not sure he could make 135 lbs. Anyhow, Wisely is crafty. He's great at avoiding damage. I'm not saying that I'm convinced he'll win this fight, but I think -500 is overpriced for Oliveira. I'd also be very hesitant to take Oliveira inside the distance as Wisley has never lost by anything other than decision. IMO, the best bet for that fight is "fight completes one" for -135. Oliveira pushes a tough pace and is a finisher, but Wisley has looked pretty damn competitive even in his losses.

He's not undersized for 145, he's undersized compared to Oliveira.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 03:13 PM

Oliveira is always over-priced!

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 03:14 PM

I agree. I've got him in a bunch of parlays, though.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 03:38 PM

As long it starts round 2 Im good. I expect him to win by decision or late sub similar to Efrain fight

**Educ8d Degener8** · 01-28-12, 04:06 PM

Wisely did look crafty as f*ck in that Healy fight, expecially given the size differential.

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 04:46 PM

Phil Davis +180 > Rashad Evans (1.5/5)

Everyone is on Rashad, so I'm nervous about this one. Phil is talented, a super athlete. He could beat Rashad, and at +180, I'm liking it. Gonna wait til it hits +200 before I lock it up, though. I think it will by fight time. This is more a gut play than anything else. My gut has been telling me that Phil has what it takes, and I gotta listen to it. I am 10-5 picking main events. I don't like that, and this is a tough match up to try to improve upon that record- I want to see Rashad vs Jones but I gotta stick to my initial instinct of going with Philip. I am officially the first person here who is taking Phil Davis. BEST OF LUCK.

Also, I am on CHRIS WEIDMAN. Weidman by Decision would be a decent prop bet!

And I'll make a risky bet on BISPING closer to fight-time. Hope the line will improve!

**Educ8d Degener8** · 01-28-12, 04:57 PM

Nothing wrong in going against the herd cousin. I'm on Suga mostly due to what should be a stand-up advantage, and that Davis hasn't looked too comfortable on the feet/getting hit. But the kid is a freak athlete and develops quickly, so who knows, maybe he comes out showing marked striking improvements in addition to his grappling -- and Suga has been taken down before...

Weidman dec is +145 at 5dimes, i put it in a parlay.

(Though I'm on Maia s/u)