Went against the herd w/ the Camozzi fight and it paid off! (as well as with Nurmagodemov last week, and a bunch of times before)
picks || UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis || by: gabe
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gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#106Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#107Lavar Johnson +175 > Joey Beltran (4/5) I see this as the best value play on the entire card. I see Lavar outstriking Beltran for at least 2 out of 3 rounds, so Lavar Johnson +1.5 would be a beautiful play. Lavar Johnson by Decision is a good bet, too, as Beltran is known for his durability/chin. That said, I won't be surprised if Beltran receives the first KO loss of his career Saturday night. If odds on Lavar by KO are good, it's def worth a shot. I expect a solid performance from Lavar; he should win at least 2 of 3 rounds, if not earn a KO.
Lavar just isn't ufc calibre. He gasses quickly and has no ground game. If he doesn't KO Beltran in round 1 I think it's very difficult for him to win. Luckily for him Beltran is very hittable, but Beltran is very capable of taking him down if he wants to fight a smart fight.Last edited by gabe; 01-28-12, 05:26 PM.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#108Lavar Johnson +175 > Joey Beltran (4/5)
I see this as the best value play on the entire card. I see Lavar outstriking Beltran for at least 2 out of 3 rounds, so Lavar Johnson +1.5 would be a beautiful play. Lavar Johnson by Decision is a good bet, too, as Beltran is known for his durability/chin. That said, I won't be surprised if Beltran receives the first KO loss of his career Saturday night. If odds on Lavar by KO are good, it's def worth a shot. I expect a solid performance from Lavar; he should win at least 2 of 3 rounds, if not earn a KO.
Vaughany,
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VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#109Shiit didnt realise Camozzi had already happened. Nice one on tht tooComment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#111Da Menace lookin gooood as wellComment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#112ha shiiit might of jinxed u!Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#113lolComment -
sideloadedSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-21-10
- 7561
#114nice call on lavarComment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#115Woo! Locked him up at +210 -- 3-0 tonight against the herd. Need Mr. Wonderful to make it 4-0Comment -
illmatickSBR Hall of Famer
- 01-05-09
- 5456
#116Well done gabe, looks like you're cleaning up.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#117Need Evan Dunham to come through!!!Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
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GoGoGadgetSBR Wise Guy
- 03-18-09
- 570
#119was on johnson and johnson small, good value picks mr Gabe. GL with dunhamComment -
illmatickSBR Hall of Famer
- 01-05-09
- 5456
#120What price did you get on Camozzi?Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#121Ah well, had to end eventually. Hopefully Dunham gets the winComment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
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bogbatSBR MVP
- 03-21-10
- 1843
#123Camozzi wasn't against the herd. Congrats on Lavar though.Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#124Think he meant herd as in people on here like Ecco and Ill backing JacobyComment -
illmatickSBR Hall of Famer
- 01-05-09
- 5456
#125I didn't see the fight but from what I read on the playbyplay I'd definitely play him at +165 again.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#126rather have the fight end under 2.5 than have russow win, although both would be beautiful!!!!!!!!!Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#127YES!!!!!!!!!!!!! Dunham + under 2.5!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
OblivianSBR High Roller
- 01-27-12
- 163
#128In my opinion, Oliveira is way overpriced in this fight. Wisely has had some tough fights when he was undersized, but that was at 155 lbs against large 155 lbs fighters like Healy. I really don't know if you can say that he's undersized for 145 lbs as it appeared to me he cut quite a bit. I'm not sure he could make 135 lbs. Anyhow, Wisely is crafty. He's great at avoiding damage. I'm not saying that I'm convinced he'll win this fight, but I think -500 is overpriced for Oliveira. I'd also be very hesitant to take Oliveira inside the distance as Wisley has never lost by anything other than decision. IMO, the best bet for that fight is "fight completes one" for -135. Oliveira pushes a tough pace and is a finisher, but Wisley has looked pretty damn competitive even in his losses.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#129lol
Alright, need Weidman to make it happen...Comment -
SATERSTYLESBR Wise Guy
- 09-07-11
- 691
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gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#131only losses so far tonight are george roop (although i cashed in on the under 2.5 rounds at + money) and russow/einemo under 2.5 (although i cashed in big on russow. doubled up when he fell to -105)
won 2930789384 other bets and parlays
beautiful night. will be better if weidman cashes.Comment -
varkolekSBR High Roller
- 07-17-11
- 230
#132Congrats on Johnson. My original instinct was to pick him by decision, but then I thought Roller might take him down and Roller has submitted a lot of good guys. I think I lost all my small prelim bets except Lavar which was my biggest bet. Johnson by dec would have got me a nice profit.Comment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#133what a night... these last 2 will probably lose, i'll be happy if one cashes. bisping and davis, let's gooooooooo!!!!!!!!!Comment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#134Davis wins my night is screwed! Need Sonnen decision here as wellComment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
#135If Bisping wins over 2.5 rounds, it'll be BEEEAAAAAAUUUUTIFUL!!
taking over 2.5 instead of sonnen straight up. i think if he wins, it'll be a decision. if either one wins, i'm golden. if both do (bisping + over) then wowComment -
BeelzebubzySBR Hall of Famer
- 06-06-11
- 6995
#136congrats on your night gabeComment -
VaughanySBR Aristocracy
- 03-07-10
- 45563
#138Bad luck brahComment -
gabeSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-12-11
- 7405
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