picks || UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis || by: gabe

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 05:02 PM

Went against the herd w/ the Camozzi fight and it paid off! (as well as with Nurmagodemov last week, and a bunch of times before)

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Lavar Johnson +175 > Joey Beltran (4/5) I see this as the best value play on the entire card. I see Lavar outstriking Beltran for at least 2 out of 3 rounds, so Lavar Johnson +1.5 would be a beautiful play. Lavar Johnson by Decision is a good bet, too, as Beltran is known for his durability/chin. That said, I won't be surprised if Beltran receives the first KO loss of his career Saturday night. If odds on Lavar by KO are good, it's def worth a shot. I expect a solid performance from Lavar; he should win at least 2 of 3 rounds, if not earn a KO.

Respek.

Originally posted by bjpenn85

no, wait. Play him round 1 or just leave it. He wont win a decision here.

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Lavar just isn't ufc calibre. He gasses quickly and has no ground game. If he doesn't KO Beltran in round 1 I think it's very difficult for him to win. Luckily for him Beltran is very hittable, but Beltran is very capable of taking him down if he wants to fight a smart fight.

Originally posted by bogbat

I agree with Nunya here. I'm surprised the UFC even brought him over. I'm more looking forward to Shane Del Rosario's UFC debut. Now there is a prospect with some potential to do well in the UFC.

Originally posted by sideloaded

Lavar Johnson = can
Joey Beltran = can crusher

2-0 against the herd tonight.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Lavar Johnson +175 > Joey Beltran (4/5)

I see this as the best value play on the entire card. I see Lavar outstriking Beltran for at least 2 out of 3 rounds, so Lavar Johnson +1.5 would be a beautiful play. Lavar Johnson by Decision is a good bet, too, as Beltran is known for his durability/chin. That said, I won't be surprised if Beltran receives the first KO loss of his career Saturday night. If odds on Lavar by KO are good, it's def worth a shot. I expect a solid performance from Lavar; he should win at least 2 of 3 rounds, if not earn a KO.

Vaughany,

Nice start Gabriel

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 05:22 PM

Shiit didnt realise Camozzi had already happened. Nice one on tht too

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Nice start Gabriel

Originally posted by Vaughany

Shiit didnt realise Camozzi had already happened. Nice one on tht too

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 05:46 PM

Da Menace lookin gooood as well

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 05:48 PM

ha shiiit might of jinxed u!

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 05:52 PM

lol

**sideloaded** · 01-28-12, 05:52 PM

nice call on lavar

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 05:55 PM

Woo! Locked him up at +210 -- 3-0 tonight against the herd. Need Mr. Wonderful to make it 4-0

**illmatick** · 01-28-12, 06:04 PM

Well done gabe, looks like you're cleaning up.

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 06:12 PM

Need Evan Dunham to come through!!!

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Charles Oliveira -500 > Eric Wisely (5/5)

Charles Olivera Inside the Distance for a prop bet, also Charles Oliveira via Submission.

Respek.

I also had Under 2.5 rounds at -240.. but it's parlayed with Einemo/Russow under 2.5 at -190-- need that to hit.

**GoGoGadget** · 01-28-12, 06:16 PM

was on johnson and johnson small, good value picks mr Gabe. GL with dunham

**illmatick** · 01-28-12, 06:40 PM

What price did you get on Camozzi?

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 06:42 PM

Ah well, had to end eventually. Hopefully Dunham gets the win

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by illmatick

What price did you get on Camozzi?

-150

Originally posted by Vaughany

Ah well, had to end eventually. Hopefully Dunham gets the win

yeah, all i need is him to win and i'll be good regardless of whatever else happens in other fights.

**bogbat** · 01-28-12, 06:50 PM

Camozzi wasn't against the herd. Congrats on Lavar though.

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 06:52 PM

Think he meant herd as in people on here like Ecco and Ill backing Jacoby

**illmatick** · 01-28-12, 06:54 PM

I didn't see the fight but from what I read on the playbyplay I'd definitely play him at +165 again.

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 07:05 PM

rather have the fight end under 2.5 than have russow win, although both would be beautiful!!!!!!!!!

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 07:42 PM

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!! Dunham + under 2.5!!!!!!!!!!!

**Oblivian** · 01-28-12, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by Oblivian

In my opinion, Oliveira is way overpriced in this fight. Wisely has had some tough fights when he was undersized, but that was at 155 lbs against large 155 lbs fighters like Healy. I really don't know if you can say that he's undersized for 145 lbs as it appeared to me he cut quite a bit. I'm not sure he could make 135 lbs. Anyhow, Wisely is crafty. He's great at avoiding damage. I'm not saying that I'm convinced he'll win this fight, but I think -500 is overpriced for Oliveira. I'd also be very hesitant to take Oliveira inside the distance as Wisley has never lost by anything other than decision. IMO, the best bet for that fight is "fight completes one" for -135. Oliveira pushes a tough pace and is a finisher, but Wisley has looked pretty damn competitive even in his losses.

Glad you didn't listen to this idiot!

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 07:54 PM

lol

Alright, need Weidman to make it happen...

**SATERSTYLE** · 01-28-12, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by Oblivian

Glad you didn't listen to this idiot!

Humility in this forum? Stop it, right now. To correct your mistake you must now say that you went all in on Oliveira and that you are a professional fighter and the best capper alive

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 07:58 PM

only losses so far tonight are george roop (although i cashed in on the under 2.5 rounds at + money) and russow/einemo under 2.5 (although i cashed in big on russow. doubled up when he fell to -105)

won 2930789384 other bets and parlays

beautiful night. will be better if weidman cashes.

**varkolek** · 01-28-12, 08:14 PM

Congrats on Johnson. My original instinct was to pick him by decision, but then I thought Roller might take him down and Roller has submitted a lot of good guys. I think I lost all my small prelim bets except Lavar which was my biggest bet. Johnson by dec would have got me a nice profit.

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 08:44 PM

what a night... these last 2 will probably lose, i'll be happy if one cashes. bisping and davis, let's gooooooooo!!!!!!!!!

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 08:49 PM

Davis wins my night is screwed! Need Sonnen decision here as well

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 08:52 PM

If Bisping wins over 2.5 rounds, it'll be BEEEAAAAAAUUUUTIFUL!!

taking over 2.5 instead of sonnen straight up. i think if he wins, it'll be a decision. if either one wins, i'm golden. if both do (bisping + over) then wow

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-28-12, 08:52 PM

congrats on your night gabe

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

congrats on your night gabe

Wow, Bisping was robbed...

**Vaughany** · 01-28-12, 09:24 PM

Bad luck brah

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-28-12, 09:25 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Wow, Bisping was robbed...

Did I come off as a di ck? IIRC, you are up, right?

**gabe** · 01-28-12, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Did I come off as a di ck? IIRC, you are up, right?

Yeah, like I said, after Dunham wins, doesn't matter what else happens... I came up winning on the Bisping fight though. I won more on fight going over 2.5 than i lost betting bisping.