picks || UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis || by: gabe

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  • Vaughany
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 03-07-10
    • 45563

    #71
    Originally posted by gabe
    No, we weren't "talking about" TJ Grant and Bongfeldt. I just had a laugh about the fact that Grant was submitted by Bongfeldt. That is all. There was no "talk."

    That comment I made was irrelevant to Roller's fight with Johnson. It can make you like Johnson more, I guess, but I didn't have that in mind when I made the comment. I just said that Roller looked piss-poor (which he did) against TJ Grant, who was submitted by Bongfeldt. You took that and ran with it, turning it into a huge deal.
    Okay fair enough. The tone you took and manner you did it in sounded like you were belittling TJ Grant tho
    Comment
    • Vaughany
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 03-07-10
      • 45563

      #72
      Originally posted by NunyaBidness
      That may be the first time you made me lol
      ha As he said, the average comedian only gets one laugh out of every hundred jokes!
      Comment
      • gabe
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-12-11
        • 7405

        #73
        Question for the homies--

        Say 90% of the public is on Sonnen, at every sportsbook in Vegas, except one. One has over 80% of it's betters betting big on Bisping. Does that sportsbook change the line to Bisping +200 or possibly Bisping -110, or do they still keep him as a huge underdog just 'cos people everywhere else are betting on Sonnen?
        Comment
        • NunyaBidness
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 07-26-09
          • 9345

          #74
          An opinionated book with good resources will probably just let it ride. A smaller book will lay off their action with a bigger book or betting exchange.

          The only books that would move their line into arbable range are ones with huge resources. You can see pinnacle do this all the time. Other books will be priced on Fighter A at -200. If pinny likes that line they might move Fighter B to +201.
          Comment
          • gabe
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-12-11
            • 7405

            #75
            Respek.
            Comment
            • gabe
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 09-12-11
              • 7405

              #76
              Lavar Johnson +175 > Joey Beltran (4/5)

              I see this as the best value play on the entire card. I see Lavar outstriking Beltran for at least 2 out of 3 rounds, so Lavar Johnson +1.5 would be a beautiful play. Lavar Johnson by Decision is a good bet, too, as Beltran is known for his durability/chin. That said, I won't be surprised if Beltran receives the first KO loss of his career Saturday night. If odds on Lavar by KO are good, it's def worth a shot. I expect a solid performance from Lavar; he should win at least 2 of 3 rounds, if not earn a KO.


              Vaughany,

              Comment
              • bjpenn85
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-17-11
                • 5059

                #77
                Risky bet on lavar there honey, should take him at +190 tho!
                Comment
                • bjpenn85
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-17-11
                  • 5059

                  #78
                  no, wait. Play him round 1 or just leave it. He wont win a decision here.
                  Comment
                  • gabe
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-12-11
                    • 7405

                    #79
                    I saw him in a backyard wrestling ladder match last month. He looked sharp.
                    Comment
                    • NunyaBidness
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 07-26-09
                      • 9345

                      #80
                      Originally posted by gabe
                      Lavar Johnson +175 > Joey Beltran (4/5)

                      I see this as the best value play on the entire card. I see Lavar outstriking Beltran for at least 2 out of 3 rounds, so Lavar Johnson +1.5 would be a beautiful play. Lavar Johnson by Decision is a good bet, too, as Beltran is known for his durability/chin. That said, I won't be surprised if Beltran receives the first KO loss of his career Saturday night. If odds on Lavar by KO are good, it's def worth a shot. I expect a solid performance from Lavar; he should win at least 2 of 3 rounds, if not earn a KO.

                      Lavar just isn't ufc calibre. He gasses quickly and has no ground game. If he doesn't KO Beltran in round 1 I think it's very difficult for him to win. Luckily for him Beltran is very hittable, but Beltran is very capable of taking him down if he wants to fight a smart fight.
                      Comment
                      • bogbat
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-21-10
                        • 1843

                        #81
                        Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                        Lavar just isn't ufc calibre. He gasses quickly and has no ground game. If he doesn't KO Beltran in round 1 I think it's very difficult for him to win. Luckily for him Beltran is very hittable, but Beltran is very capable of taking him down if he wants to fight a smart fight.
                        I agree with Nunya here. I'm surprised the UFC even brought him over. I'm more looking forward to Shane Del Rosario's UFC debut. Now there is a prospect with some potential to do well in the UFC.
                        Comment
                        • The HOFF
                          SBR MVP
                          • 07-02-08
                          • 4847

                          #82
                          I don't think Lavar Johnson has any cardio. He needs to win early or Beltran will finish him late.

                          I would also be careful with Dunham. He lost to Sherk's wrestling. He was taken down by Escudero and Griffin. And Lentz just got Lentz'd by Bocek. So I expect Lentz to pull a Lentz against Dunham to get a win.
                          Comment
                          • sideloaded
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-21-10
                            • 7561

                            #83
                            Lavar Johnson = can
                            Joey Beltran = can crusher
                            Comment
                            • NunyaBidness
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 07-26-09
                              • 9345

                              #84
                              Originally posted by The HOFF
                              I don't think Lavar Johnson has any cardio. He needs to win early or Beltran will finish him late.

                              I would also be careful with Dunham. He lost to Sherk's wrestling. He was taken down by Escudero and Griffin. And Lentz just got Lentz'd by Bocek. So I expect Lentz to pull a Lentz against Dunham to get a win.
                              That begs the question, can Dunham Sherk Lentz? Or in his case, should I say can Dunham Bocek Lentz if he avoids being Sherked himself?
                              Comment
                              • gabe
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-12-11
                                • 7405

                                #85
                                Lavar looked good in the second round of his last fight where he got subbed.
                                Comment
                                • Thor4140
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 02-09-08
                                  • 22296

                                  #86
                                  man plus 155 for Roop? I guess i waited one day to long.
                                  Comment
                                  • gabe
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-12-11
                                    • 7405

                                    #87
                                    Charles Oliveira -500 > Eric Wisely (5/5)

                                    It's silly to call a -500 line a lock. Oliveira is making his featherweight debut here against a
                                    tough but undersized opponent. His best way to victory would be to take him down and dominate on
                                    the ground, looking for a submission. He can pick Wisely apart on the feet, but using his Jiu-Jitsu would
                                    be the safer route; all he's gotta do to win this fight is avoid Wisely's left hand. Charles Olivera
                                    Inside the Distance
                                    for a prop bet, also Charles Oliveira via Submission. Put a little something on
                                    Eric Wisely via Knockout to hedge. Prop bets are the way to go with this one, and include him in
                                    parlays; such as--


                                    Wager type : Parlay
                                    Select #1 : NBA Basketball
                                    Atlanta Hawks 1/27/2012 7:35 PM - (EST)
                                    Money Line -255 for Game
                                    Select #2 : NBA Basketball
                                    Minnesota Timberwolves 1/27/2012 8:05 PM - (EST)
                                    Spread +1 -110 for Game
                                    Select #3 : MMA Martial Arts
                                    Evan Dunham 1/28/2012 7:30 PM - (EST)
                                    Money Line -350 for Game
                                    Select #4 : MMA Martial Arts
                                    George Roop 1/28/2012 6:30 PM - (EST)
                                    Money Line +110 for Game
                                    Select #5 : MMA Martial Arts
                                    Charles Oliveira 1/28/2012 6:00 PM - (EST)
                                    Money Line -500 for Game
                                    Amount : Risking 15.00 To Win 114.17 USD
                                    Comment
                                    • gabe
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-12-11
                                      • 7405

                                      #88

                                      Wager type : Proposition/Future

                                      Select #1 : Soccer Futures
                                      EURO 2012
                                      Euro 2012 - To win Group A
                                      Russia +125
                                      Risking 100.00 To Win 125.00 USD
                                      Select #2 : Soccer Futures
                                      EURO 2012
                                      Euro 2012 - To win Group B
                                      Germany +105
                                      Risking 100.00 To Win 105.00 USD
                                      Select #3 : Soccer Futures
                                      EURO 2012
                                      Euro 2012 - To win Group C
                                      Spain -180
                                      Risking 180.00 To Win 100.00 USD
                                      Select #4 : Soccer Futures
                                      EURO 2012
                                      Euro 2012 - To win Group D
                                      England +150
                                      Risking 100.00 To Win 150.00 US
                                      Comment
                                      • Vaughany
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 03-07-10
                                        • 45563

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by gabe

                                        Wager type : Proposition/Future

                                        Select #1 : Soccer Futures
                                        EURO 2012
                                        Euro 2012 - To win Group A
                                        Russia +125
                                        Risking 100.00 To Win 125.00 USD
                                        Select #2 : Soccer Futures
                                        EURO 2012
                                        Euro 2012 - To win Group B
                                        Germany +105
                                        Risking 100.00 To Win 105.00 USD
                                        Select #3 : Soccer Futures
                                        EURO 2012
                                        Euro 2012 - To win Group C
                                        Spain -180
                                        Risking 180.00 To Win 100.00 USD
                                        Select #4 : Soccer Futures
                                        EURO 2012
                                        Euro 2012 - To win Group D
                                        England +150
                                        Risking 100.00 To Win 150.00 US
                                        Nice I could have a pretty big play on Russia winning tht group.
                                        Comment
                                        • gabe
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 09-12-11
                                          • 7405

                                          #90
                                          did u check out chris d'elia?
                                          Comment
                                          • Vaughany
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 03-07-10
                                            • 45563

                                            #91
                                            His Keanu Reeves impression was good! Not sure about his English accent tho...sounded like he was impersonating Ali G or trying to do a cockney! Rogan did the worst impression ever of Ali G the other day when he was creaming over Sascha Baron Cohen..was hilarious
                                            Comment
                                            • gabe
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 09-12-11
                                              • 7405

                                              #92
                                              haha
                                              Comment
                                              • gabe
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 09-12-11
                                                • 7405

                                                #93
                                                Originally posted by gabe


                                                Wager type : Parlay
                                                Select #1 : NBA Basketball
                                                Atlanta Hawks 1/27/2012 7:35 PM - (EST)
                                                Money Line -255 for Game
                                                Select #2 : NBA Basketball
                                                Minnesota Timberwolves 1/27/2012 8:05 PM - (EST)
                                                Spread +1 -110 for Game

                                                Select #3 : MMA Martial Arts
                                                Evan Dunham 1/28/2012 7:30 PM - (EST)
                                                Money Line -350 for Game
                                                Select #4 : MMA Martial Arts
                                                George Roop 1/28/2012 6:30 PM - (EST)
                                                Money Line +110 for Game
                                                Select #5 : MMA Martial Arts
                                                Charles Oliveira 1/28/2012 6:00 PM - (EST)
                                                Money Line -500 for Game
                                                Amount : Risking 15.00 To Win 114.17 USD
                                                Comment
                                                • gabe
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-12-11
                                                  • 7405

                                                  #94
                                                  Last edited by gabe; 01-28-12, 03:02 PM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • gabe
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 09-12-11
                                                    • 7405

                                                    #95
                                                    Mike Russow -165 > Jon-Olav Einemo (2/5)

                                                    Take Mike Russow via Knockout and Einemo Inside the Distance to hedge. Also Fight Does Not Start Round 3. If Einemo doesn't catch Russow early with a shot or submission, he'll be too worn out in the second round and will be put away. If Russow makes it out of the first round, this is his fight. Pretty much betting on Russow to make it out of the first round. Won't be easy. He could get caught early in the first round and come out with a shameful performance in front of his hometown crowd. I'm betting on him to make it out of that first round, though. Or even finish it in the first! Mike Russow by KO, inside the distance, and straight-up! Thank you!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • sideloaded
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 08-21-10
                                                      • 7561

                                                      #96
                                                      I like Russow a lot in this fight too
                                                      Comment
                                                      • gabe
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 09-12-11
                                                        • 7405

                                                        #97
                                                        Took Chris Camozzi at -150. Line dropped way low.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Oblivian
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 01-27-12
                                                          • 163

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by gabe
                                                          Charles Oliveira -500 > Eric Wisely (5/5)

                                                          It's silly to call a -500 line a lock. Oliveira is making his featherweight debut here against a
                                                          tough but undersized opponent. His best way to victory would be to take him down and dominate on
                                                          the ground, looking for a submission. He can pick Wisely apart on the feet, but using his Jiu-Jitsu would
                                                          be the safer route; all he's gotta do to win this fight is avoid Wisely's left hand. Charles Olivera
                                                          Inside the Distance
                                                          for a prop bet, also Charles Oliveira via Submission. Put a little something on
                                                          Eric Wisely via Knockout to hedge. Prop bets are the way to go with this one, and include him in
                                                          parlays; such as--
                                                          In my opinion, Oliveira is way overpriced in this fight. Wisely has had some tough fights when he was undersized, but that was at 155 lbs against large 155 lbs fighters like Healy. I really don't know if you can say that he's undersized for 145 lbs as it appeared to me he cut quite a bit. I'm not sure he could make 135 lbs. Anyhow, Wisely is crafty. He's great at avoiding damage. I'm not saying that I'm convinced he'll win this fight, but I think -500 is overpriced for Oliveira. I'd also be very hesitant to take Oliveira inside the distance as Wisley has never lost by anything other than decision. IMO, the best bet for that fight is "fight completes one" for -135. Oliveira pushes a tough pace and is a finisher, but Wisley has looked pretty damn competitive even in his losses.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • gabe
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 09-12-11
                                                            • 7405

                                                            #99
                                                            Originally posted by Oblivian
                                                            In my opinion, Oliveira is way overpriced in this fight. Wisely has had some tough fights when he was undersized, but that was at 155 lbs against large 155 lbs fighters like Healy. I really don't know if you can say that he's undersized for 145 lbs as it appeared to me he cut quite a bit. I'm not sure he could make 135 lbs. Anyhow, Wisely is crafty. He's great at avoiding damage. I'm not saying that I'm convinced he'll win this fight, but I think -500 is overpriced for Oliveira. I'd also be very hesitant to take Oliveira inside the distance as Wisley has never lost by anything other than decision. IMO, the best bet for that fight is "fight completes one" for -135. Oliveira pushes a tough pace and is a finisher, but Wisley has looked pretty damn competitive even in his losses.
                                                            He's not undersized for 145, he's undersized compared to Oliveira.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Vaughany
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 03-07-10
                                                              • 45563

                                                              #100
                                                              Oliveira is always over-priced!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • gabe
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 09-12-11
                                                                • 7405

                                                                #101
                                                                I agree. I've got him in a bunch of parlays, though.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Vaughany
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 03-07-10
                                                                  • 45563

                                                                  #102
                                                                  As long it starts round 2 Im good. I expect him to win by decision or late sub similar to Efrain fight
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Educ8d Degener8
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-12-10
                                                                    • 3177

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Wisely did look crafty as f*ck in that Healy fight, expecially given the size differential.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • gabe
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 09-12-11
                                                                      • 7405

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Phil Davis +180 > Rashad Evans (1.5/5)

                                                                      Everyone is on Rashad, so I'm nervous about this one. Phil is talented, a super athlete. He could beat Rashad, and at +180, I'm liking it. Gonna wait til it hits +200 before I lock it up, though. I think it will by fight time. This is more a gut play than anything else. My gut has been telling me that Phil has what it takes, and I gotta listen to it. I am 10-5 picking main events. I don't like that, and this is a tough match up to try to improve upon that record- I want to see Rashad vs Jones but I gotta stick to my initial instinct of going with Philip. I am officially the first person here who is taking Phil Davis. BEST OF LUCK.

                                                                      Also, I am on CHRIS WEIDMAN. Weidman by Decision would be a decent prop bet!

                                                                      And I'll make a risky bet on BISPING closer to fight-time. Hope the line will improve!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Educ8d Degener8
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-12-10
                                                                        • 3177

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Nothing wrong in going against the herd cousin. I'm on Suga mostly due to what should be a stand-up advantage, and that Davis hasn't looked too comfortable on the feet/getting hit. But the kid is a freak athlete and develops quickly, so who knows, maybe he comes out showing marked striking improvements in addition to his grappling -- and Suga has been taken down before...

                                                                        Weidman dec is +145 at 5dimes, i put it in a parlay. (Though I'm on Maia s/u)
                                                                        Comment
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