picks || UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis || by: gabe

[gabe]

Evan Dunham -250 > Nik Lentz (5/5)

Lentz looked weak against Bocek, and I expect more of the same against Dunham. This is my biggest play. I expect 3D to dominate on the feet, and take control on the ground, should the fight go there. I've had my eye on this fight since it was announced that Lentz was replacing Paul Sass. I just really love Evan Dunham here, and consider getting him at -300 or better to be a STEAL. Prop bet on Fight Goes the Distance and Evan Dunham by Knockout to hedge out.


George Roop +155 > Cub Swanson (4/5)

Roop has a nice size advantage, much better movement, and is a far better striker. I expect him to technically outclass Cub on the feet and likely score a knockout, so George Roop by Knockout would be a good prop bet.



More...

[illmatick]

far better striker? I don't think so. Good play though.

Before the line came out I was actually really looking forward to getting cub somewhere around -135.

[sideloaded]

How do you feel about Dunham's bad toe?

[gabe]

far better striker? I don't think so. Good play though.

I guess that's my opinion. George Roop's stand-up is beautiful to me. His movement and striking, IMO, is superior to Swanson's, and that will prove to be so Saturday night. Just how I feel. If you don't think Roop is better on the feet than Swanson is, then you shouldn't be betting on Roop!

[gabe]

How do you feel about Dunham's bad toe?

Sucks, but doubt it'll come into play.

[bjpenn85]

i like both. roop better striker..are you sure? anyway his striking can be a nice tool to setup takedowns and throw cub off.

[gabe]

i like both. roop better striker..are you sure? anyway his striking can be a nice tool to setup takedowns and throw cub off.

I love Cub's kickboxing but I think Roop is a little more smooth and technical on the feet with this Muay Thai. Roop's gotta worry about Cub's guillotine when he goes for those takedowns. I think he is going to get the better of the striking and the ground-game. After losing the last decision, I feel he'll be looking to put Swanson away.

[NunyaBidness]

Roop's striking is good when his opponent allows him to pick him off. Against aggressive guys who won't play into him he falls apart.

[NunyaBidness]

Evan Dunham -250 > Nik Lentz [B](5/5)
. Prop bet on Fight Goes the Distanceand Evan Dunham by Knockout to arb out.

That's not an arb, that's a hedge. Congrats on sorta learning a new word though.

[gabe]

That's not an arb, that's a hedge. Congrats on sorta learning a new word though.

When has Roop really ever fallen apart, though? (Let's forget the quick Hominick KO. His only loss by KO)

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Just so we're clear, how strongly does 5/5 for Dunham or 4/5 for Roop mean?

Is this your certified lock? In other words are you 97-99% certain like Crumble?

[gabe]

Just so we're clear, how strongly does 5/5 for Dunham or 4/5 for Roop mean? Is this your certified lock? In other words are you 97-99% certain like Crumble?

Go fellate yourself.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Gabe! Put your f*cking win rate at the bottom of all your posts brah! Represent son, represent!

[gabe]

haha

[BIGDAY]

Best of luck bud.

[gabe]

Best of luck bud.

[Vaughany]

Ironic how Roop was one of the weakest links in tht season of TUF (was the last pick out of all the LW) and now is the only one progressing. Even Efrain who won the show is barely a UFC fighter. Phillipe Nover's gone back to nursing, Junie Browning has been busy fighting with Thai mafia, whilst like of Delgado, Kaplan, Polakowski, etc.. fight in Bumfuck, Iowa or have retired!

[Vaughany]

Roop's defense still leaves a lot to be desired. Swanson is pretty tough/resilient, I'm not sure if Roop will finish him, but could def take a decision.

I'm liking Gagnon if he hits +200.

[bjpenn85]

Do you think he can win a decision? i ilke gagnon by french killing techniques ahhyeah

[Vaughany]

Gabe! Put your f*cking win rate at the bottom of all your posts brah! Represent son, represent!

hahaha Think I'm gonna have to start putting my IQ level at the bottom of all my posts!

[Jordan23]

Any lock of centuries on this card for you Gabe?

I have a parlay of Sonnen and Rashad at even money.

[gabe]

5/5 = my lock

evan dunham

[JAKEPEAVY21]

gl gabe

[gabe]

Bedford vs Gagnon canceled!

http://mmajunkie.com/news/27122/bedford-gagnon-scratched-at-ufc-on-fox-2-beltran-johnson-promoted-to-fuel-tv.mma

[gabe]

Michael Johnson +175 > Shane Roller (2/5)

I almost stayed away from this one. Make prop bets on Michael Johnson by Knockout and Fight Goes the Distance for a hedge. I think Shane Roller is gonna start out boxing and is going to get hurt. If he doesn't get put away, I think he's gonna look for takedowns and try to win a decision. I don't feel too confident betting on Michael Johnson, (made good money taking Paul Sass against him as a big dog!) but I'm gonna take him straight-up, too. I think he's well prepared for this fight and has the tools to stop Shane Roller. He's got to stop Roller's takedowns and has to defend his submissions. He can't afford to get choked out. Johnson has a lot of weak spots going into this fight, and if Roller plays it smart, he could win, but I just think Johnson is going to get the better of him this Saturday night. Roller is taking this fight on short notice, and I can see him being gassed out in the third round, if not the second. This fight is a golden opportunity for Michael Johnson to show what he's got and prove that he belongs... and I believe he will be looking to do just that.

[gabe]

gl gabe

[sideloaded]

Michael Johnson +175 > Shane Roller (2/5)

I almost stayed away from this one. Make prop bets on Michael Johnson by Knockout and Fight Goes the Distance for a hedge. I think Shane Roller is gonna start out boxing and is going to get hurt. If he doesn't get put away, I think he's gonna look for takedowns and try to win a decision. I don't feel too confident betting on Michael Johnson, (made good money taking Paul Sass against him as a big dog!) but I'm gonna take him straight-up, too. I think he's well prepared for this fight and has the tools to stop Shane Roller. He's got to stop Roller's takedowns and has to defend his submissions. He can't afford to get choked out. Johnson has a lot of weak spots going into this fight, and if Roller plays it smart, he could win, but I just think Johnson is going to get the better of him this Saturday night. Roller is taking this fight on short notice, and I can see him being gassed out in the third round, if not the second. This fight is a golden opportunity for Michael Johnson to show what he's got and prove that he belongs... and I believe he will be looking to do just that.

Like the pick gabe. The Blackzillians have shown great submission defense.

[NunyaBidness]

lol

[gabe]

That might have been funny if I didn't point out that he'd have to defend submissions as it is one of his weak spots.

[sideloaded]

I see the Blackzillians being the next hammerhouse

[v1y]

Ironic how Roop was one of the weakest links in tht season of TUF (was the last pick out of all the LW) and now is the only one progressing. Even Efrain who won the show is barely a UFC fighter. Phillipe Nover's gone back to nursing, Junie Browning has been busy fighting with Thai mafia, whilst like of Delgado, Kaplan, Polakowski, etc.. fight in Bumfuck, Iowa or have retired!

delgado and nover are still fighting...

but yes it's ironic for sure.

also funny that 6 guys at 205 that season are still fighting.
kingsbury/ksos (now retired)/bader/lawlor/vinny/marshall (now retired)

[Vaughany]

Michael Johnson +175 > Shane Roller (2/5)

I almost stayed away from this one. Make prop bets on Michael Johnson by Knockout and Fight Goes the Distance for a hedge. I think Shane Roller is gonna start out boxing and is going to get hurt. If he doesn't get put away, I think he's gonna look for takedowns and try to win a decision. I don't feel too confident betting on Michael Johnson, (made good money taking Paul Sass against him as a big dog!) but I'm gonna take him straight-up, too. I think he's well prepared for this fight and has the tools to stop Shane Roller. He's got to stop Roller's takedowns and has to defend his submissions. He can't afford to get choked out. Johnson has a lot of weak spots going into this fight, and if Roller plays it smart, he could win, but I just think Johnson is going to get the better of him this Saturday night. Roller is taking this fight on short notice, and I can see him being gassed out in the third round, if not the second. This fight is a golden opportunity for Michael Johnson to show what he's got and prove that he belongs... and I believe he will be looking to do just that.

Cant knock the play. Roller isnt the type tho to really look for a decision - part of the reason that he gasses sometimes is because he's so aggressive looking for the takedown and submission. Be interesting to see what approach he takes - whether he plays it cautious and looks for openings, or whether he goes for the takedown and submission early like he did against Njokuani

[gabe]

Cant knock the play. Roller isnt the type tho to really look for a decision - part of the reason that he gasses sometimes is because he's so aggressive looking for the takedown and submission. Be interesting to see what approach he takes - whether he plays it cautious and looks for openings, or whether he goes for the takedown and submission early like he did against Njokuani

Not that he would look for a decision, per se, but would turn to grinding it out as his route once he gets rocked. I think he'll stand with him first then will look for submissions.

[Vaughany]

Yeah the Tavares KO probably gave him more confidence in his stand-up (despite the fact he wasnt doing well till landing the big shot)

[gabe]

He looked so piss poor against TJ Grant, who got his ass kicked by Jesse "Water" Bongfeldt rofl