BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz @ UFC 137

[PunisherIND]

this is going to be one insane fight.

[Nick The Greek]

Awesome fight. I'll be rooting for Nick to win and get back his fight with GSP, but I think BJ takes this.

[v1y]

i don't see how the bj penn who fought jon fitch loses this.

[stefan084]

what will the odds be?

[caveira]

Awesome fight!!! Much better than Diaz x GSP...

[SATERSTYLE]

Great fight, I have Penn winning this.

[sirchadwick1]

You guys think this one will be somewhat of a pick'em? If so I'll take BJ.

[PunisherIND]

penn -155, diaz +135

[Tree Rollins]

Wow. Talk about a fight. If you know anything about MMA, you won't miss this one. wow.

I wonder if it will be a 5-rounder with the new rules since it's a co-main?? If so, i def. like Diaz. I actually like Diaz either way. Should be one hell of a fight.

[brooks85]

ha i remember when diaz said he would never fight penn, cant wait for this one

[GunShard]

I remember Diaz said something complementary about Penn on Twitter months ago.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

good match but whats the point of taking Diaz off the main on the same card, just to give him another fight.

fine him for missing the press events and give him the shot.

[ngates815]

good match but whats the point of taking Diaz off the main on the same card, just to give him another fight. fine him for missing the press events and give him the shot.

Exactly, it doesn't make much sense at all.

[v1y]

Wow. Talk about a fight. If you know anything about MMA, you won't miss this one. wow.

I wonder if it will be a 5-rounder with the new rules since it's a co-main?? If so, i def. like Diaz. I actually like Diaz either way. Should be one hell of a fight.

Where are you getting this crazy idea that co-main non title fights will ever be 5 rounds?

Dana has said only that main event non-title fights will be 5 rounds, starting with ufc 138.

[FindTheLock]

by switching opponents and letting Diaz fight on the same card it makes you wonder if Dana White wanted to deal with the possibility of having to deal with Diaz as the UFC WW Champ. White probably decided it would be hell dealing with Diaz if he pulled off the upset, and so He pulled Diaz off the main event.

[sirchadwick1]

White didn't want to take the chance of Diaz not showing up for the main event and killing the show. The guy has some screws loose. By giving him BJ, it serves as a punishment in a 3 rd bout.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

by switching opponents and letting Diaz fight on the same card it makes you wonder if Dana White wanted to deal with the possibility of having to deal with Diaz as the UFC WW Champ. White probably decided it would be hell dealing with Diaz if he pulled off the upset, and so He pulled Diaz off the main event.

good point, no way Dana wants to put up with Diaz's shiiit if he wins the title, I see him getting fed strong wrestlers like Fitch/Koscheck. Doubt he ever gets a sniff at a title

[nobull]

i like bj penn here ................. Diaz is a wild child .............. i expect bj to whoop his ass by the 2nd round

[Pabinator]

good match but whats the point of taking Diaz off the main on the same card, just to give him another fight. fine him for missing the press events and give him the shot.

Great point. This makes no sense. I still want to see this fight of course but I really wanted to see him & GSP.

So what happens now if he doesnt show up for the same stuff against BJ? You take him off that fight again?

[NunyaBidness]

That bestfightodds line had to be a mistake on their end. Penn -365/+285. Now it's pretty even. Bodog doesn't usually adjust that way, if they get heavy action on an opener they usually pull the line completely for 30 minutes to an hour, not just readjust.

[v1y]

That bestfightodds line had to be a mistake on their end. Penn -365/+285. Now it's pretty even. Bodog doesn't usually adjust that way, if they get heavy action on an opener they usually pull the line completely for 30 minutes to an hour, not just readjust.

hmm... you sure?

[Ladle]

Will be going big on Penn if that line is anything close to even money by the time it hits my books.

[NunyaBidness]

hmm... you sure?

No, not sure. It'd be out of character for bodog to move their lines that way, but not impossible. Also possible that it took BFO a long time to catch the line after it was released.

You claiming you got it? I would've maxed it for sure, instead took the -105 on baby jay.

[PunisherIND]

I think they mixed the opener with gsp-condit. That fight opened on bodog around even and quickly adjusted to gsp -400 or so.

[Tree Rollins]

Where are you getting this crazy idea that co-main non title fights will ever be 5 rounds? Dana has said only that main event non-title fights will be 5 rounds, starting with ufc 138.

Where are you getting this crazy idea that i said it was going to be 5 rounds? Please find where i said that and quote me. I was asking if it might be a 5 round fight, bc i wasn't clear on the rules. Do you understand what a question is? That last sentence, that was a question, in case you didn't know.

[Tree Rollins]

Great point. This makes no sense. I still want to see this fight of course but I really wanted to see him & GSP. So what happens now if he doesnt show up for the same stuff against BJ? You take him off that fight again?

I don't think he'll be pulling that shit again. If he does, it's b/c he's made up his mind he wants to be a boxer. I think Nick felt like there was no way UFC would pull him out of that fight, and who really did? If he isn't smart enough now to realize Dana isn't fuking around and he can't get away with that stuff anymore, he'll never learn.

[urge2kill]

I think they mixed the opener with gsp-condit. That fight opened on bodog around even and quickly adjusted to gsp -400 or so.

I think you are correct.

[sirchadwick1]

Mitrione just opened at -105 vs Kongo.
I'm all over it. Edit: Now at -115 on both sides.

[Ladle]

Mitrione just opened at -105 vs Kongo.
I'm all over it. Edit: Now at -115 on both sides.

I'll take Kongo at the current odds (though I won't be going big on him ever again, for obvious reasons). Despite training under the tutelage of Tom Erikson, Mitrione has never displayed any semblance of defensive wrestling; he's been taken down - often multiple times - by every opponent he's fought, bar Tim Hague. Considering Kongo nearly got his brains blew out by Pat Barry, I do think it's likely we see the return of wrestler Kongo here. If that is indeed the case, I think he wins this fairly handily.

[sirchadwick1]

Kongo has a poor fight IQ. I don't know why I was relying on him to takedown Barry (many of us luckily eeked out that W)... I highly doubt he keeps Mitrione down if he even decides to to go for the td. Kongo has pretty much settled into his fighting ways and I haven't seen much improvement out of him, while Mitrione continues to rise and impress. He also has a very solid chin and I think that will come into play in this one. I was thinking Mitrione would open a slight fav and was happy to get him at near even.

[Ladle]

I don't think Kongo's fight IQ is that bad. With the exception of Barry (a fight where he got lamped early on), he's taken the smarter route against almost all of the one-dimensional strikers he's fought. He's out-wrestled them, or at the very least pushed them up against the fence, forcing them to play the clinch game.

While Mitrione's stand-up continues to improve, his defensive wrestling doesn't. As I mentioned, he's been taken down by almost everyone he's fought (often in very sloppy fashion). Kongo's takedowns are more than good enough to bring the fight to the mat, and I personally think his ground control is underrated. He's got a very heavy top game and some brutal ground and pound (see the Al-Turk fight).

As for Mitrione's chin, I'm uncertain about it. He took a few good licks against Beltran, but Beltran has never been known to clobber dudes. If Kongo laces him with those crosses he hit on Velasquez, I think Mitrione hits the deck immediately (just like any other human being would). That said, Mitrione definitely has the power to drop Kongo too. Standing up, I think it's a pretty even fight.

[scofflaw]

I really like BJ in this fight. This is the hardest fight of Nick's career and it sounds like he's in a bad state of mind and he's tired of fighting. Diaz has shown some serious defensive deficiencies against less skilled fighters and I think BJ will expose him. IMO Diaz is being overvalued because of his Strikeforce dominance over (relative) cans. If the line holds up near even I'll likely go big on Penn.

[Ladle]

I really like BJ in this fight. This is the hardest fight of Nick's career and it sounds like he's in a bad state of mind and he's tired of fighting. Diaz has shown some serious defensive deficiencies against less skilled fighters and I think BJ will expose him. IMO Diaz is being overvalued because of his Strikeforce dominance over (relative) cans. If the line holds up near even I'll likely go big on Penn.

Same. Think Penn can have a lot of success counter punching on the feet. As well as that, Penn's wrestling is light years ahead, and his top game is better than Diaz's bottom game. Not sure how Diaz wins.

[bjpenn85]

Diaz may win if he can stand on the outside and do this punches in bunches style. Bj seemed paralyzed under the fight with frankie edgar, and totally unable to make adjustments under the fight. Not that diaz style is even close to similiar with frankie, but this concept of staying outside bjs range may be the remedy to defeat bj combined by taking away his will. His toughest test by far tho.

[Kaladarus]

Diaz may win if he can stand on the outside and do this punches in bunches style. Bj seemed paralyzed under the fight with frankie edgar, and totally unable to make adjustments under the fight. Not that diaz style is even close to similiar with frankie, but this concept of staying outside bjs range may be the remedy to defeat bj combined by taking away his will. His toughest test by far tho.

Look at BJ Penn trying to be humble. If BJ Penn himself says that Diaz can beat him then I think all Penn backers should be worried.