UFC on Versus 5

**Chairib** · 08-10-11, 04:14 PM

I'm a little surprised that Volksman's the underdog.

**jin2daj** · 08-10-11, 04:17 PM

hmm i really like volkmann here too.

**Vaughany** · 08-10-11, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by Chairib

I'm a little surprised that Volksman's the underdog.

Do you think he'll get some late action and end up fave? That's what I'm thinking and why I've put 10 units on him now at +104. Dude is continually overlooked though, he's been underdog in every fight I think except slight favourite against Paul Kelly even though he had the big grappling advantage. That +225 line against McKee was an absolute gift!

**FightFightFight** · 08-10-11, 04:58 PM

When was the last time a new guy who's never fought someone with a decent record opens that high. It's pre-line talk. Done campaigning though. If you guys like money, keep it tight.

**Chairib** · 08-10-11, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Do you think he'll get some late action and end up fave? That's what I'm thinking and why I've put 10 units on him now at +104. Dude is continually overlooked though, he's been underdog in every fight I think except slight favourite against Paul Kelly even though he had the big grappling advantage. That +225 line against McKee was an absolute gift!

I wonder how much action a Volkmann fight actually generates? Even with nice odds there doesn't seem to be a whole lot interest with this guy. It just seems like a small amount of people who want to bet on this guy.

**ghost kid** · 08-10-11, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

What do u mean?

He means that the books were able to set openers that were advantageous to them because they knew several of the early leans. They knew which fighters money would show for, because barking was loud for certain bouts PRIOR to lines being released.

Happened the last Strikeforce card with Woodley and Saff. And happened on several of the undercard bouts for this Sunday's UFC card.

Openers are a huge part of this business. And if you bet quite a large amount, there is a big difference between -180 and -240.

Some things that are obvious to you aren't obvious to everyone. You are a smart, avid MMA follower - at times you may have more info than the books. I'm telling you, it's a smaller community then you think.

Best of luck this weekend.

**ghost kid** · 08-10-11, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

he actually opened at -285 (per bestfightodds). i think FFF meant that he was expecting leroy to open as the favorite since he's the better known fighter.

Trust me. That's not close to what he meant.

**iQon** · 08-10-11, 07:04 PM

5Dimes limits at $250?

I really hope they up increase that by the weekend.

**jesuseatsnubs** · 08-10-11, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by iQon

5Dimes limits at $250?

I really hope they up increase that by the weekend.

come to Pinnacle and u get $4000 limits usually ..

sometimes $13,000 betting limit when it's really close to the fights starting .. on certain fights ..

there Parlay odds are a bit worse then their straight betting odds though for MMA .. just to let u know

so if it's like -250 for a straight bet .. it will be around -265 for parlay ..

**terpkeg** · 08-10-11, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by ghost kid

Trust me. That's not close to what he meant.

Exactly, wasnt too long ago that Cain Valesquez was opening as an underdog to Brad Morris. Books obviously putting more time into openers now, but still behind the guys who follow the sport the closest. Some things are better left unsaid.

**Vaughany** · 08-11-11, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by jesuseatsnubs

come to Pinnacle and u get $4000 limits usually ..

sometimes $13,000 betting limit when it's really close to the fights starting .. on certain fights ..

there Parlay odds are a bit worse then their straight betting odds though for MMA .. just to let u know

so if it's like -250 for a straight bet .. it will be around -265 for parlay ..

Pinnacle dont have props though

**Vaughany** · 08-11-11, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

When was the last time a new guy who's never fought someone with a decent record opens that high. It's pre-line talk. Done campaigning though. If you guys like money, keep it tight.

Maybe so. But Hettes has choked out Jacob Kirwan who is better then anybody Bruce Leroy has beaten. Kirwan was a state Wrestling champ and has had success in NAGA and Grappler's Quest competition. Also it was bookmaker that released the lines first, they are consistently a lot more clued up than 5dimes/sportbet with opening lines. You usually only catch soft openers when 5dmes/sportbet release openers or occassionaly sportsbook (who infamously released Stephens as underdog against Marcus Davis!).

**valdosta** · 08-11-11, 09:43 AM

Bookmaker has made a shitload of mistakes with openers throughout the years, as has anyone else who opens first. It's going to happen sometime in combat sports, it's always easy to talk about afterwards. How many times though do people lump on a "mistake" and lose there asses? people tend to forget talking about those on the forums.

**FightFightFight** · 08-11-11, 09:55 AM

Bookmaker is tighter. True. But there's no value in discussing lines openly prior to them opening, while there may be much value in keeping it tight. You've got a following here, so they'll pay minor attention to you and this forum. A Bodog employee just posted on the mmajunkie forum! They go there. When you start winning money that is a valuable supplement to your income, and not just spending money and internet recognition you may see it differently. I don't blame you, I enjoy forum discussion too. Cheers. Good luck this weekend.

**FightFightFight** · 08-11-11, 09:57 AM

Yeah, Stephens was awesome, as was mighty mouse at 225 at about the same time. They chopped my bet limits shortly after...

**ghost kid** · 08-11-11, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

You usually only catch soft openers when 5dmes/sportbet release openers or occassionaly sportsbook (who infamously released Stephens as underdog against Marcus Davis!).

Simply not true. All the books slip up at some point. Bmaker had Tony Ferguson set at +140 for the TUF finale.

Comparing one book to another isn't the point though. What several of us are trying to point out is the fact that the game, overall, is getting tighter as it popularizes. The books already have an edge with juice. Why give them more leverage? You are limiting you're own options.

It just doesn't make any sense to discuss a full slate of picks weeks before an event has any odds listed. Maybe they won't make any mistakes, but maybe they WILL. Why eliminate this possibility?

It makes a lot more sense to wait for the odds to be released.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-11-11, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by valdosta

Bookmaker has made a shitload of mistakes with openers throughout the years, as has anyone else who opens first. It's going to happen sometime in combat sports, it's always easy to talk about afterwards. How many times though do people lump on a "mistake" and lose there asses? people tend to forget talking about those on the forums.

Losing a bet on a soft line doesn't necessarily mean that the line wasn't soft. There is more variance in this than people understand.

**ghost kid** · 08-11-11, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by terpkeg

Exactly, wasnt too long ago that Cain Valesquez was opening as an underdog to Brad Morris. Books obviously putting more time into openers now, but still behind the guys who follow the sport the closest. Some things are better left unsaid.

Bingo. This.

**FightFightFight** · 08-11-11, 01:20 PM

Support for the theory that the betting community is actually fairly small is line movement at 5dimes. When you bet, they adjust the lines, sometimes fairly drastically. If 100 people even were betting on that line, it wouldn't move that way.

**FightFightFight** · 08-11-11, 01:23 PM

I'd say a twentieth of the linemovers are on this site. A damn good representation of where people will lay money. And, in fact, that's why I'm here! To know how lines are going to move. Not to get advice, although sometimes a good insight pops up. And also Eatsnubs keeps me entertained.

**valdosta** · 08-11-11, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Losing a bet on a soft line doesn't necessarily mean that the line wasn't soft. There is more variance in this than people understand.

I understand things better than most. My main point is that any book that originates is going to have some lines that people think are soft or wrong. What determines if they are that soft or wrong are long term results obviously. I think with books offering more MMA than ever they are doing fine, and there are plenty of lines that people think are soft that really aren't.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-11-11, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by valdosta

I understand things better than most. My main point is that any book that originates is going to have some lines that people think are soft or wrong. What determines if they are that soft or wrong are long term results obviously. I think with books offering more MMA than ever they are doing fine, and there are plenty of lines that people think are soft that really aren't.

I agree completely.

**olddirtyfighter** · 08-11-11, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by valdosta

I understand things better than most. My main point is that any book that originates is going to have some lines that people think are soft or wrong. What determines if they are that soft or wrong are long term results obviously. I think with books offering more MMA than ever they are doing fine, and there are plenty of lines that people think are soft that really aren't.

What determines if particular opening line is soft is closing line. If you calculate fair odds (no vig) from closing line and found out that opening line offered better odds on one side, this line was soft.

**valdosta** · 08-11-11, 04:47 PM

I don't think the MMA market is efficient enough to say that. Sure there's a few exceptions but the market in general has lots of dead money.

**olddirtyfighter** · 08-11-11, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by valdosta

I don't think the MMA market is efficient enough to say that.

I thought so also but some 3 months ago I started following line movement of MMA events and roughly 70% of line movement was in right direction. It's probably not big enough sample but sounds right.

**valdosta** · 08-11-11, 05:12 PM

It's not big enough at all. There's been funny trends in MMA. I don't have the numbers but a crazy number of favs were winning for a while, big steam has won for a while,etc,etc but IMO as a whole the market just isn't that eficient. There's lots of losers and dead money in the sport. There's some that know how to pick the good numbers to but not overall.

**Vaughany** · 08-11-11, 05:13 PM

**rocky mattioli** · 08-11-11, 06:27 PM

everybody`s gonna do what they want....silly for a few to try and muzzle discussuion on fights on a board this big...and there are more mma boards than people think...i

people are gonna do as they please....just try and catch the lines as early as possible if you think you`re that sharp....can`t control the behavior of others...and it`s silly to try...

**FightFightFight** · 08-11-11, 09:07 PM

Silly to try to persuade donks, not intelligent people, who are the ones that matter.

**cheeese** · 08-12-11, 12:54 AM

It would also help if everyone didn't smash the openers for $100 limits, let all the books copy the lines and then hit it when the limit is raised.

**Kaladarus** · 08-12-11, 08:21 AM

Originally posted by cheeese

It would also help if everyone didn't smash the openers for $100 limits, let all the books copy the lines and then hit it when the limit is raised.

This would be nice, but it will never happen. Just got to do your best to make fast decision and hit openers.

**ghost kid** · 08-12-11, 09:45 AM

We are talking about two different things here. Obviously when the lines are released, shoot early and often if you think you can beat 'em. Openers are a key point of profit if you are doing this seriously.

I'm talking about aiding the line set prior to release.

Threads like "Hey guys, I am looking for a parlay lock for the UFC event 3 weeks from now. Give me your 3 best bets". If I was an oddsmaker, that's a thread that would peak my interest.

As terp alluded to, the game has become tougher to beat as the books have sharpened up on MMA.

I like to take every advantage I can. So my personal preference is to keep quiet till the lines hit the boards, then shoot to score. You never know - sometimes pleasant surprises appear.

**Kaladarus** · 08-12-11, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by ghost kid

We are talking about two different things here. Obviously when the lines are released, shoot early and often if you think you can beat 'em. Openers are a key point of profit if you are doing this seriously.

I'm talking about aiding the line set prior to release.

Threads like "Hey guys, I am looking for a parlay lock for the UFC event 3 weeks from now. Give me your 3 best bets". If I was an oddsmaker, that's a thread that would peak my interest.

As terp alluded to, the game has become tougher to beat as the books have sharpened up on MMA.

I like to take every advantage I can. So my personal preference is to keep quiet till the lines hit the boards, then shoot to score. You never know - sometimes pleasant surprises appear.

Good points.

It's hard to pick the right side of upcoming fights though without numbers. At the right price either side can hold value.

I think you are right though. We should definitely wait until the numbers before discussing upcoming fights. Even though both sides can hold value at the right price most would prefer getting the right price on a particular fighter. Also it would be nice if you could release your picks a little faster after line openers. Work something out with Gabe.

**Dabeergod** · 08-12-11, 11:07 AM

pretty good free card

**jesuseatsnubs** · 08-12-11, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by valdosta

It's not big enough at all. There's been funny trends in MMA. I don't have the numbers but a crazy number of favs were winning for a while, big steam has won for a while,etc,etc but IMO as a whole the market just isn't that eficient. There's lots of losers and dead money in the sport. There's some that know how to pick the good numbers to but not overall.

all the books need is 1 upset to make huge money ..

Take that fat miss piggy Fedor for example .. him losing made the books a shit ton of money lol