Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**gabe** · 02-24-12, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

rampage always says he has a tough cut. The fact that he was pleasant enough to joke around and laugh tells me that his cut is looking pretty much the same as always. Wanna see what a tough cut looks like....look at aldo before the hominick fight. Aldo is a joker yet he could barely put on a smile.

Um, that was Rampage before going through the cut. You're comparing him before going through the cut to Aldo in the deep end of his cut? wtf?

I've got him in a lot of parlays, so it better not effect his pehhfohhmance.

**Hannibal** · 02-24-12, 05:27 PM

What's the State of Japanese MMA?

http://www.mmafighting.com/ufc/2012/2/24/2821436/whats-the-state-of-japanese-mma

We hit the streets of Tokyo to find out whether the locals were UFC fans and why they think MMA has fallen on hard times in the country.

interesting stuff
none of the jap girls were actually hot...but damn something about japanese girls turns me on

**sideloaded** · 02-24-12, 06:57 PM

search google for uncensored JAV

**sirchadwick1** · 02-24-12, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Waiting for some Euro sites to release some more props like Okami by decision. Would really like Mizugaki by decision as well. Did forget about this one though:

6.356 units on Kongo by Decision at +292 to win 18.56 units.

Knew the line wouldn't get better than that. At +260 now and +230 to +250 on most Euro sites.

5d has this at +481 now. Think that's definitely worth a shot.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 02-24-12, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

http://www.mmafighting.com/ufc/2012/...f-japanese-mma

interesting stuff
none of the jap girls were actually hot...but damn something about japanese girls turns me on

dude they are the best, seriously.

I've had a japanese girlfriend here state side and went to town when in japan. Best tang I've ever had to this day (something about it that makes it different than any other ethnicity of poon), and I've never met women who can start orgasaming in a matter of seconds like japanese girls do...

And the fact that they are so quiet, polite, and elegant, but can get down in bed - makes them all the more hotter to me. They seriously worship americans over there too (or even europeans). My old girlfriend was telling me how some of her friends would go out to bars and clubs at night just to bone down with an american / european, and I found this to be true

**MMAbetMASTA** · 02-24-12, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by omalley21

I believe almost all of that. But Tito called Juanito a thief.

Here’s a snip from Ortiz:

“Let me explain this to you because it really pisses me off that Ibarra has done what he has done, he is a thief. I have been running training camps for seven years up in Big Bear California and the most that my camp has cost a fighter to attend is $35,000. Ibarra was charging Jackson $65,000 to go to Big Bear. I don’t understand that!! He was being very disrespectful and taking advantage of “Rampage”. Including travel, training partners, food and lodging, the most ever was $35,000, maybe if you flew in more trainers…$40K. Where did that extra money go that Ibarra was charging? “Rampage” is really pissed and he feels betrayed that he was taken advantage of and I couldn’t agree more with him. I don’t care if Juanito reads this or hears about it anywhere, he already knows that he is blackballed. I don’t care who you are; fighters work very hard for the money they earn and I feel slighted for even knowing Juanito.”

dude, perhaps I'm trippin' but I remember tito coming out and saying the opposite! YOu got the quote though and I can't recall where I got my info, it was so long ago. Regardless, there were people saying there was no ill biz activity on juanito's part that he was charging page the same as he would any other high profiler... And juanito even came out to document that he hadn't charged what rampage claimed (that is why rampage couldn't do any kind of litigation because juanito had eveidence that he did not charge / steal extra money from page).

All in all I can't say with any certainty what truly happened. Most of what I know is from word of mouth, but from pretty reliable and honest sources imo. Either way its sucks they fell out of that relationship and it sucks rampage can't be a man and for once in any event in his life take responsibility for his actions and not act like a sick, selfish lunatic. I know I'm bashing page and people will hate on me for it, but the guy really is a POS. Great fighter, entertaining, smart in his own way (shit he's the one making the big bucks and fame not me) but a POS person imo.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 02-24-12, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I've really looked in to the Pettis/Lauzon fight much at all ever since I saw the Pettis line. I like Pettis to win it but wouldnt feel comfortable playing him at current odds, if it got better than -200 maybe. Lauzon is difficult to gauge, especially with the questions about his cardio. I think a lot of the time he slows down because he's such a fast and aggressive starter. If it goes the distance Pettis should take it as he'll be the one throwing more combinations and the flashy kicks and whether Lauzon has cardio or not, I have no doubt that Pettis has better cardio. It's the only area where I see a clear advantage for either fighter, but not sure it warrants a play on Pettis at these odds. Almost tempted to play Pettis by decision and fight to not go distance!

thanks man, solid insight as usual.

I've looked more into it myself and was intially thinking -250ish wasn't too bad a price. After reading some play by palys and watching footage I thinkk people might be underestimating lauzon's tds... He's gotten down a lot of fighters... pettis' tdd seemed to be hyped after his roller and bendo wins, but guida and stephans proved he is susceptible to tds and trips. I can't say with confidence that pettis can keep it upright where I believe he will def beat up Jlau. Everyone keeps saying if he survives the 1st its his fight, but lauzon has finished and come on strong during the 2nd as well so I don't know that I'm on that argument for pettis (everyone keeps referencing the stout fight as jlau's gassing, but really that is one of the only fights that it seems like that occured...I wouldn't say he gassed against gsot..).

I would be all over this if I knew pettis could keep it upright, and that's pretty much what I'm banking on if I do play him. I thiknk if jlau gets in top position he can cause more damage that other guys who have been on top of pettis. My brain is spinnin' I don't know what to do!

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 02-24-12, 10:37 PM

Vaughany, the MMA lords will smite you for betting against Frankie Edgar. You have been warned.

**mikea33** · 02-24-12, 11:08 PM

vaug.....

would you play rampage at -250, shields at -320, and okami at -350? my books dont allow parlays. whats the good word.

**jihadvillager** · 02-24-12, 11:23 PM

rampage didnt make weight- what are your thoughts now?

**Hannibal** · 02-24-12, 11:35 PM

I just took bader dec 301+ to cover half of my rampage play

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 02:50 AM

Originally posted by Wanna Bet On It?

Vaughany, the MMA lords will smite you for betting against Frankie Edgar. You have been warned.

ha Got him by decision in a parlay and fight goes distance in two parlays so as long as he doesnt win inside the distance Im good and still technically playing him as well!

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 04:03 AM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

thanks man, solid insight as usual.

I've looked more into it myself and was intially thinking -250ish wasn't too bad a price. After reading some play by palys and watching footage I thinkk people might be underestimating lauzon's tds... He's gotten down a lot of fighters... pettis' tdd seemed to be hyped after his roller and bendo wins, but guida and stephans proved he is susceptible to tds and trips. I can't say with confidence that pettis can keep it upright where I believe he will def beat up Jlau. Everyone keeps saying if he survives the 1st its his fight, but lauzon has finished and come on strong during the 2nd as well so I don't know that I'm on that argument for pettis (everyone keeps referencing the stout fight as jlau's gassing, but really that is one of the only fights that it seems like that occured...I wouldn't say he gassed against gsot..).

I would be all over this if I knew pettis could keep it upright, and that's pretty much what I'm banking on if I do play him. I thiknk if jlau gets in top position he can cause more damage that other guys who have been on top of pettis. My brain is spinnin' I don't know what to do!

yeah Lauzon's under-rated takedowns (especially in round 1) are my main concern. Lil Heathen was able to win the first round of his fight with Pettis through takedowns. If STephens can take hiim down then dont see why Lauzon cant.

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 04:04 AM

Originally posted by mikea33

vaug.....

would you play rampage at -250, shields at -320, and okami at -350? my books dont allow parlays. whats the good word.

Certainly not Rampage at -250 now we know the current situation. Shields and Okami i'd look at props, no way Id play either straight up at those odds

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 04:33 AM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

5d has this at +481 now. Think that's definitely worth a shot.

Yeah, just added more to it and hedged with Fight Doesnt Go Distance at -250

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 04:53 AM

41.6 units on Rampage at -200 to win 20.8 units;

Bought out of this with 20.8 units on Bader at +200. For all I know Rampage could have an injured knee and one kick from Bader could stop the fight or something! Was very confident in Rampage if in half-decent shape, but with this injury I'm not so sure, so taken Bader at +200 before it gets any worse.

This missing weight fiasco has also thrown a spanner in to my plan of playing Rampage KO of the Night hedged with "Not Rampage Inside Distance at -186". Not so confident that Dana will be too willing to give him any awards after missing weight.

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 05:00 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Waiting for some Euro sites to release some more props like Okami by decision. Would really like Mizugaki by decision as well. Did forget about this one though:

6.356 units on Kongo by Decision at +292 to win 18.56 units.

Knew the line wouldn't get better than that. At +260 now and +230 to +250 on most Euro sites.

Added:

8.498 units on Kongo by Decision at +481 to win 40.877 units;

hedged with:

37.5 units on Kongo/Hunt to Not Go the Distance at -250 to win 15 units.

Also got an arb with more on Not Distance at -250 and Fight Goes Distance at +380 so will make 0.274 units if it doesnt go distance or 7.122 units if it does go distance.

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 05:03 AM

Originally posted by jihadvillager

rampage didnt make weight- what are your thoughts now?

I've arbed out with Bader at +200. More than happy to play Rampage at -200 when believing he is in half-decent shape, but with lingering injury Im not so confident.

**Thor4140** · 02-25-12, 08:04 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I've really looked in to the Pettis/Lauzon fight much at all ever since I saw the Pettis line. I like Pettis to win it but wouldnt feel comfortable playing him at current odds, if it got better than -200 maybe. Lauzon is difficult to gauge, especially with the questions about his cardio. I think a lot of the time he slows down because he's such a fast and aggressive starter. If it goes the distance Pettis should take it as he'll be the one throwing more combinations and the flashy kicks and whether Lauzon has cardio or not, I have no doubt that Pettis has better cardio. It's the only area where I see a clear advantage for either fighter, but not sure it warrants a play on Pettis at these odds. Almost tempted to play Pettis by decision and fight to not go distance!

This is how i feel about almost every fight on the main card. All Fav's look like they should win but all dog's look like they have a decent shot. To me it is a bad betting card with lines being to high for Favv's but not high enuf to take the other side.

**Thor4140** · 02-25-12, 08:09 AM

Joe Rogan is right. Rampage is so sensitive u can't say anything about the guy without him getting upset. Now Rich frankilin has to do commentary and i guess he shouldn't talk about Page. Page is a piece of work because what Franklin said is true.

“My friend already texted me what Rich Franklin said and Rich Franklin needs to watch his mouth for next time I see him. He’s a fighter just like I’m a fighter and he should watch what he says. You don’t question if a fighter takes his fight serious or not. I’m tired of people saying that. So what? I get ups and downs in my fight career just like everybody else but I’m still here. I’ve been around for 11 years but I’m still here. I take all my fights seriously and I’m tired of people questioning me. I’m one fighter that I haven’t backed out of a fight yet due to injuries, if I win I win if I lose I lose. I’ve won some fights injured and I’ve lost some fights injured, so that’s just me. I’m the one that has to answer it in the end of the day.
That’s why I am the way I am, I get paid to fight, If I get injured the next thing I’m doing is asking my doctor if I can still fight and this time my doctor said no, you can’t fight. Through the grace of the most high I healed up and I kept training through my injury. I trained other things, I didn’t take time off, I kept training but my weight suffered, it happens.”

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by Thor4140

Joe Rogan is right. Rampage is so sensitive u can't say anything about the guy without him getting upset. Now Rich frankilin has to do commentary and i guess he shouldn't talk about Page. Page is a piece of work because what Franklin said is true.

“My friend already texted me what Rich Franklin said and Rich Franklin needs to watch his mouth for next time I see him. He’s a fighter just like I’m a fighter and he should watch what he says. You don’t question if a fighter takes his fight serious or not. I’m tired of people saying that. So what? I get ups and downs in my fight career just like everybody else but I’m still here. I’ve been around for 11 years but I’m still here. I take all my fights seriously and I’m tired of people questioning me. I’m one fighter that I haven’t backed out of a fight yet due to injuries, if I win I win if I lose I lose. I’ve won some fights injured and I’ve lost some fights injured, so that’s just me. I’m the one that has to answer it in the end of the day.
That’s why I am the way I am, I get paid to fight, If I get injured the next thing I’m doing is asking my doctor if I can still fight and this time my doctor said no, you can’t fight. Through the grace of the most high I healed up and I kept training through my injury. I trained other things, I didn’t take time off, I kept training but my weight suffered, it happens.”

Gabe is like the Rampage of this forum!

**PunisherIND** · 02-25-12, 08:36 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Bought out of this with 20.8 units on Bader at +200. For all I know Rampage could have an injured knee and one kick from Bader could stop the fight or something! Was very confident in Rampage if in half-decent shape, but with this injury I'm not so sure, so taken Bader at +200 before it gets any worse.

This missing weight fiasco has also thrown a spanner in to my plan of playing Rampage KO of the Night hedged with "Not Rampage Inside Distance at -186". Not so confident that Dana will be too willing to give him any awards after missing weight.

pretty sure he's not eligible to win FOTN or SOTN.

anthony johnson wasnt eligible for his KO of yoshida, and nick pace wasnt eligible with the pillory choke of campuzano (definitley would have won otherwise).

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 08:45 AM

Added:

10 units on Pettis/Lauzon FOTN at +750 to win 75 units;

6.666 units on Edgar/Henderson FOTN at +375 to win 24.997 units.

One of the random fights like Vaughan Lee/Kid or Mizugaki/Cariaso will probably go and get it, but couldn't resist playing both of these. Edgar/Bendo should go at least 3 rounds so chances of it getting FOTN are obviously very high. As long as Pettis/Lauzon doesnt finish early in Round 1 it has a great chance of getting FOTN...JLau is a bonus collector and we all know how exciting Pettis is to watch with his flashiness!!

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-25-12, 09:27 AM

Great line on edgar fotn I'm playing that super small

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Great line on edgar fotn I'm playing that super small

Missed the +400 opener as well

**rocky mattioli** · 02-25-12, 09:59 AM

anybody else thinking that okami might be in for a rough fight?.....he`s deservedly the fave,but,marquardt had some wrestling success vs okami.....-360 seems a bit steep.imo,considering how strong boetsch looks at 185...

boetsch wrestled at lock haven(great program) and some of his losses came in short notice fights vs top 205 pounders...seems like he has some serious momentum....

i put okami in a par and the more i looked at this,the more leery i became....probably going to hedge with boetsch or throw him in a longshot par with henderson at a little over 8-1...5 dimes leaves their lines up until fight time ususally,so that leaves some room for adjustment depending on what happens...

anybody else think boetsch is a bit of a wildcard here?...

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

anybody else thinking that okami might be in for a rough fight?.....he`s deservedly the fave,but,marquardt had some wrestling success vs okami.....-360 seems a bit steep.imo,considering how strong boetsch looks at 185...

boetsch wrestled at lock haven(great program) and some of his losses came in short notice fights vs top 205 pounders...seems like he has some serious momentum....

i put okami in a par and the more i looked at this,the more leery i became....probably going to hedge with boetsch or throw him in a longshot par with henderson at a little over 8-1...5 dimes leaves their lines up until fight time ususally,so that leaves some room for adjustment depending on what happens...

anybody else think boetsch is a bit of a wildcard here?...

Totally agree. Got Okami at -275 in a parlay with Shields, but with Boetsch now at +310 the current Okami line seems too steep. His two wins against the better level of competition he has faced in Nate and Munoz weren't exactly dominant wins

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 10:27 AM

Updated summary of UFC 144 plays:

10 units on Pettis/Lauzon FOTN at +750 to win 75 units;

6.666 units on Edgar/Henderson FOTN at +375 to win 24.997 units;

Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;

Parlay (double): 2.273 units on Ben Henderson (+110), & Jon Jones (-400) to win 3.694 units;

Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;

Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;

Parlay: 6.373 units on Not De Fries by TKO/KO (-3600), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Edgar by Decision (+144), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 39.495 units;

Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;

Parlay: 3.187 units on Salas/Kuivanen Over 2.5 Rounds (-135), Rampage/Bader to Go the Distance (Evens), & Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280) to win 11.869 units;

Parlay: 3.191 units on Ellenberger (-375), Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.208 units;

Parlay (double): 11 units on Okami (-275) and Shields (-250) to win 10 units;

Parlay: 6.3 units on Hioki/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-490), Pettis (-250), & Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 3 (-665) to win 5.917 units;

Parlay: 1.575 units on Hioki/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-490), Pettis (-250), Shields/Akiyama Starts Round 2 (-802), Kongo Inside the Distance (Evens), Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 3 (-665), & Not Thiago Alves Inside the Distance (-780) to win 6.176 units;

13.335 units on Kongo at -210 to win 6.35 units;

Parlay (double): 6.349 units on Kongo (-290), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.613 units;

3.75 units on Kongo by TKO/KO at +200 to win 7.5 units;

hedged with:

3 units on Not Kongo Inside the Distance at +125 to win 3.75 units;

8.498 units on Kongo by Decision at +481 to win 40.877 units;

hedged with:

37.5 units on Kongo/Hunt to Not Go the Distance at -250 to win 15 units

(Also got an arb with more on Not Distance at -250 and Fight Goes Distance at +380 so will make 0.274 units if it doesnt go distance or 7.122 units if it does go distance);

0.63 units on Shields SOTN at +1500 to win 9.45 units;

5 units on Cantwell at +260 to win 13 units;

hedged with:

7 units on Fukuda by Decision at -137 to win 5.109 units.

**illmatick** · 02-25-12, 10:50 AM

Nice. I played that same hedge with Cantwell Su and Fukuda by decision @ -124

**Rubber Guard** · 02-25-12, 10:51 AM

I have liked Boetsch since moving to 185lbs. He is a bull. That said Okami is a strong 185er as well. I think Okami is better in all areas. But if he messes around he could catch a hard shot that could change the fight.

I defiantly think Boetsch has a shot. Okami doesn't really impose his will all the time. If Boetsch does he could catch Okami off-guard.

**zoo youk** · 02-25-12, 11:12 AM

Parlay (double): 11 units on Okami (-275) and Shields (-250) to win 10 units;

I just went to go put this in but for some reason betislands isnt offering parlays on MMA

**zoo youk** · 02-25-12, 11:14 AM

guess Im gonna have to just go with one single play. you think Shields is the stronger/safer play?

**Vaughany** · 02-25-12, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by zoo youk

guess Im gonna have to just go with one single play. you think Shields is the stronger/safer play?

Not at current odds, I got him at -250 opener, wouldnt play him worse than that

**zoo youk** · 02-25-12, 11:33 AM

maybe I'll just go with Okami or Gomi

**zoo youk** · 02-25-12, 11:51 AM

****. -360 is steep though but I really think he is probably the safest bet on the board. his only losses are to the best of the best, Silva, Sonnen, Shields and Franklin. nothing to be ashamed of there...while Boetsch is your typical journeyman, correct?