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Im confident in Rampage at -200 enough to not arb out.
As Nunya said... "Because the free money exists because one side is mispriced. You're hedging away your edge."
Yes, Bart at +175 might be mispriced or at least softer in comparison to other lines out there, but that doesn't necessarily mean I think it is mispriced. I like Bart in this one but I actually thought he'd be closer to +200.
But Nunya is right that a lot of the time I could let my plays ride out and make more money but with more variance. In this case I was reasonably confident that Hioki was/is going to stick around -150 to -170 as people are clearly prepared to bet on Bart at +130 to +155 range, so I'm happy to put a load on Bart at the +175 line which is best I've seen out (even if I wouldnt of played it normally) and arb out. I see this fight with Hioki going the distance more often then not so you are then relying on Bart doing enough to get a decision. My awareness of dodgy decisions is the main reason that stops me from making big plays on such fights as there is nothing worse than getting screwed over. The fact that its in Japan and they are going to be fighting early morning on Sunday also complicates things slightly as well.Last edited by Vaughany; 02-22-12, 04:23 AM.Comment -
So just Rampage? Not as confident in Okami, Shields, Kongo?Comment -
Sorry yes, keep forgetting about Kongo. Kongo is probably the one Im most confident in, I wont be arbing out of the plays I have on him at -220 or whatever it was. Okami and Shields are two guys that I do think are slightly over-rated and wouldn't feel comfortable playing them straight up at the -300 or worse that they are at at moment.Comment -
I'm watching Steven Van Zandt's new show Lilyhammer on Netflix... he basically plays a mobster similar to Sil who rats out his boss and moves to Norway for witness protection... some funny shit in it...Comment -
Probably going to pull the trigger on Tamura as well. Going to weight until after the weigh-ins, but dont see why Zhang should be such a big favouriteComment -
tamura will have to land TD's the entire fight and control the lay and pray to win, its his only shot and i don't think that will happen after the 1st round, i normally would lean to a fighter like tamura but i think zhang has the footwork to avoid and scramble, and i just love his submission game, i could see zhang baiting tamura later on for the TD's and locking in the guillotine. i like his striking to be a factor vs. tamura, zhang has been in the states long enough now to know how to deal with many styles and to me tamura is 1 dimensional and less experince. this line is high and u could be right on this one, im sticking my neck out a bit with zhang, i have him being the better striker(especially counter-striker), better subs, more experience, ufc seasoned and i think his angle control and footwork will keep him from being put down, on the ground-off his back, very good active guard.Comment -
As Shields is fighting why not watch and laugh at this amazing interview by Red Bulled up, bitch-
Villarreal!!!...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57VXh...ayer_embedded#!
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Well I have got money on him in a double with Okami.
But why is it unlikely? Shields stand-up is pretty average. And I dont recall saying Akiyama wont come close to defending Shield's takedowns - I simply stated the facts - his takedown defence is 100% because nobody has tried to take him down, and that just because a guy is an elite judo practitioner doesnt necessarily mean they will be able to stop the takedown.
I dont play anybody straight up at -250 to -300 range unless I think they are equal to in most, or have an advantage in every area. Shields clearly doesnt have a striking edge.Comment -
Why is it unlikely that akiyama will ko shields? it is unlikely because he hasn't knocked anyone out in 5 years, and aside from jake getting caught flush on the jaw by an ellenberger knee missile he has shown to have a durable chin. (weathering the storm of a henderson h-bomb). And dan henderson hits hard..very hard.Comment -
Edgar/Henderson COuntdown show...Benson's mum steals the show!... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSdqyXOVby4
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Any thoughts on this card?Comment -
Vaug.........whats the final card looking like for 144? Sorry for asking, but I am having trouble following it because my book doesnt put lines out til prior to the fights, and there is a lot of discussion in here and I cant find themComment -
Bang vs Hardy is now official !Comment -
A Night in Tokyo with Rampage....(Really good interview)
Last edited by Vaughany; 02-23-12, 03:44 PM.Comment -
No prop bets yet for this card?Comment -
Waiting for some Euro sites to release some more props like Okami by decision. Would really like Mizugaki by decision as well. Did forget about this one though:
6.356 units on Kongo by Decision at +292 to win 18.56 units.
Knew the line wouldn't get better than that. At +260 now and +230 to +250 on most Euro sites.Comment -
Helwani: You know, the jews and blacks have a lot in common...
Rampage: Yeah, we have big dicks and y'all have big noses!!!
haha Some interesting stuff from Rampage about being poisoned before the Sakuraba fight, and also talks about his escapade when he literally went on a rampage after the Forrest fight (after being screwed over by a hardcore Christian)!
Awesome sh*t!Comment -
"Sudden death round" in Australia....
“I don’t know if anybody has said anything about it, and this is the first time I’m mentioning it, is that we (McCall and himself) had to sign for a ‘sudden death’ bout. If it goes to three rounds, and the judges can’t decide who the winner is, then we’ll do a fourth round.”Comment -
"It's just about the opportunity to be comfortable for the fight, and for that, I didn't expect something different," Kongo said. "I just try to do my job, and that's it. If I find the opportunity to use the ground, I'll use the ground. If not, I'll still strike."Comment -
Official Ronda Rousey Blog Part 2 | “My Pampered Life?”
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By ‘Rowdy’ Ronda Rousey:
I read recently on Miesha’s blog that she thinks that she has the heart of a champion because in her first MMA bout was getting punched till she got a bloody nose, was losing a match and then came back to win.
She then stated that I’ve been pampered and protected for my whole career.
Let me give you a little insight into my pampered upbringing.
I remember my first injury very well. I was 11 years old and I broke my big toe doing judo. To an 11 year old this is a very big deal, so I stopped fighting and started to cry. My mother then made me run laps around the mat for the rest for the night. I thought she was just being cruel at the time but she told me “Sometimes you have to fight when you’re injured. You need to know you’re capable of that”.
A few years later I was 15 and broke 3 bones in my foot (jumping over a fence, during my first and only attempt to try and ditch class) That weekend my mom sent me up to northern California to fight in two divisions in a tournament that was hosted by the club of one of my biggest rivals at the time. I was sent with no coach and injured, fought eight matches in front of a bias crowd that were cheering against me. When I asked my mom why she would do something so mean she said “You won’t always have a coach, the crowd won’t always like you, and you won’t always be healthy when you fight. You need to know you can win anyway.”
A few months later I got my face smashed into the mat and cauliflower ear started to swell up. Of course I had to finish practice, after practice the guy who hurt me slapped me in the ear and told me to toughen up. The next week we went into the doctor to get it drained. They cut a big gash in my ear and left a kind of tube in it to let it drain. They wrapped my head up with gauze and sent me home. I still trained that night till the entire headwrap of gauss was soaked in blood… The other kids at school weren’t too kind about it either, a muscular girl with deformed ears isn’t really “miss popularity” material.
Miesha claims I’ve never tasted my own blood, but I’ve been inadvertently kneed in the face during training and broke my nose a few times, blood splatter everywhere, I got two very stylish black eyes and continued training without a pause. Honestly, I always thought a broken nose was so minor it wasn’t really anything worth mentioning or bragging about…
At 16 I tore my ACL during practice. My mom made me finish training that night as well as the following morning before I got another coach to look at my knee. They sent me in for an MRI and found that my ACL was totally missing. A month or so later I got surgery. Two weeks after surgery I was already back on the mat doing push-ups and sit-ups, whatever I could do without using my knee. A week later I was drilling ne-waza (ground techniques) and continued to only focus on my ground game till I could fight standing again.
At 18 I fought in the German open. My first match was against Finland. I was winning until the last 45 seconds when I tried a risky throw which unfortunately set myself up for an armbar. Before I could believe it, she already dislocated my elbow. I remember thinking: “Well…its already out, tapping won’t make it better, I only have 45 seconds…” I didn’t tap, I kept fighting and my elbow snapped back into place, she popped it out again before I finally escaped the hold and was able to relocate my elbow a second time. I stood up, continued fighting, and won.
Too bad I only had a two minute break because I had to fight the world champ from France next. I remember I couldn’t even pick my arm up from my side, so I had to lift it to my face with my other arm in order to be able to hold it up. I lost pretty quickly, But Decosse (that was her name) quickly advanced and I was dropped into the loser’s bracket to fight back up for third. I won my next match against a German before having to promptly face Olympic Medalist Urska Zolnir from Slovenia. We fought a very close match but I lost. The next day the training camp started and for the following week I sparred with all the best women in the world for two 2 hour sessions a day. By the time I got home my elbow was the size of a grapefruit.
At 20 I tore the meniscus in my knee almost in half. One half flipped over and it jammed my knee into place. I couldn’t bend or straighten it and needed surgery immediately. Unfortunately the Pan American championships were a week away and it was an extremely crucial competition when it came to qualifying the 70kg category for the USA in the 2008 Olympics.
My mother’s words echoed in my head “Sometime you need to fight when you’re injured” I fought anyway, and got a bronze. The USA’s Pan Am ranking was secured, and I was rushed to LA the day after to undergo surgery. Afterwards the doctor came up to me and said. “From what I found in there, I’m surprised you walked in the door. You’re a real warrior.”
A few months later I fought in Germany again. My second match was against Edith Bosche from Netherlands, the defending world champ at the time. Early in the match she did a Wakegatame – an illegal move in judo due to that fact that it dislocates the elbow during the throw and doesn’t give your opponent a chance to submit. She was disqualified but I popped my elbow back in and fought on. I ended up getting third that day.
A while after that, Edith fought again. This time at the semi finals of the World Championships in Rio. She did the same move and dislocated my elbow again, but this time the referees didn’t see it and we continued. I was losing until the last 20 seconds, when I caught her with a Sode – a one handed throw, using the arm she injured, and won the match. Even the Brazilian crown that was extremely hostile towards me earlier in the day burst into applause. It was one of my proudest moments in judo.
Less than a year ago my first pro fight was against Ediene Gomes, a 6-1 Brazilian from American Top Team. Three days before the fight I incurred a brutal pitbull bite that required 9 stitches, the wound went down to the bone and the doctor said I was lucky the teeth just barely missed my tendons. I needed this fight, and refused to withdrawal. I asked the doctor if I would permanently injure myself if I fought. He said no, but I would be in a world of pain and the stitches would burst open by the end of the first round. I made myself go through weigh-ins without limping. I stripped naked on the scale (though my opponent was 4 lbs heavy) so the towels would cover my foot (there were no socks allowed). When it came time to fight, I won in 26 seconds. I didn’t have another option. “Sometimes you have to fight when you’re injured.”
Karo Parisyan, former UFC top contender has known and trained with me since I started judo at 11, in a recent interview with Fightline he said:
“Ronda is a kid that trained with us for many years at Team Hayastan. The reason why Ronda is so good, is because Ronda was a cute little girl – she’s not little no more – but she was a cute little girl that trained with guys like us. She wasn’t training with other girls. Other girls she would beat up, so she would train with us. She would cry. I would yell at her, ‘Suck your lip up! I don’t want you crying!’ She would suck her lip up and continue on. She would cry so much during practice because we would push her. That’s why she became an animal in the cage and on the mat. She’ll destroy ninety-five percent of the guys I know in my life. It is inspiring; it is motivating, to see all these colleagues and these people that I’ve known come up and make something of themselves. It’s good. I’m really happy for her. I’d say she’s gonna’ beat anybody that they put her in with, just because I know how good Ronda is. She’s a strong girl. She’s really strong mentally.”
I don’t know what Miesha thinks being “Pampered and Protected” means, but I suggest she invests in a dictionary.Comment -
Woowooowooowoowoowoowoo
ThanksComment -
Miss Japan might be guest ring girl. Rampage gonna be distracted as helllllllComment -
hahahaaaa! Guy is funny, gotta admit...Helwani: You know, the jews and blacks have a lot in common...
Rampage: Yeah, we have big dicks and y'all have big noses!!!
haha Some interesting stuff from Rampage about being poisoned before the Sakuraba fight, and also talks about his escapade when he literally went on a rampage after the Forrest fight (after being screwed over by a hardcore Christian)!
Awesome sh*t!
Yet I gotta defend my old neighbor though, Juanito. Anyone that really knows page, especially that whole situation of being jacked by Juanito, knows that page is just a lunatic and needed someone to blame. THe guy NEVER takes responsibility for his actions. That whole BS about juanito charging him too much for the Big Bear camp is ridiculous. Tito and a few others who regularly train there said juanito charged him what every other high profiler pays... And I know there were other accusations, but I'd take juanito's word and pretty much everyone elsew who knew about that situation over Page's crazy ass. THe guy is so full of it you can see right through him. He's scandalous, a womanizer, physically and mentally agressive, yet all the while a great fighter (think you're good on your plays! I might even play him...).
Out of respect for my old neighbors I'm not gonna get into too much detail, but man, there is so much dirt and scandalous ish on that guy its not even funny. Its all actually quite sad and pathetic on page's part as to how all that drama played out. Juanito tried to help him and imo page hasn't been as good since their break...Comment -
I believe almost all of that. But Tito called Juanito a thief.
Here’s a snip from Ortiz:
“Let me explain this to you because it really pisses me off that Ibarra has done what he has done, he is a thief. I have been running training camps for seven years up in Big Bear California and the most that my camp has cost a fighter to attend is $35,000. Ibarra was charging Jackson $65,000 to go to Big Bear. I don’t understand that!! He was being very disrespectful and taking advantage of “Rampage”. Including travel, training partners, food and lodging, the most ever was $35,000, maybe if you flew in more trainers…$40K. Where did that extra money go that Ibarra was charging? “Rampage” is really pissed and he feels betrayed that he was taken advantage of and I couldn’t agree more with him. I don’t care if Juanito reads this or hears about it anywhere, he already knows that he is blackballed. I don’t care who you are; fighters work very hard for the money they earn and I feel slighted for even knowing Juanito.”Comment
