Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Kaladarus]

****. -360 is steep though but I really think he is probably the safest bet on the board. his only losses are to the best of the best, Silva, Sonnen, Shields and Franklin. nothing to be ashamed of there...while Boetsch is your typical journeyman, correct?

I payed the juice no problem when the line was better, but still would play this at the current price.

Okami is the safest bet on the card in my opinion.

[Vitooch]

Boetsch will be flat on his back until he gets submitted or TKOed. This is one of the worst matchups for Boetsch stylistically.

[Vaughany]

Kalikas releases Johnny Hendricks at +125, Aoki +150 and Mir +300

[illmatick]

Meh, i'd give Hendricks a look. Still feel slighted by Koscheck's last decision over Pierce.

[Digo]

[quote=Vaughany;13894293]Bought out of this with 20.8 units on Bader at +200. For all I know Rampage could have an injured knee and one kick from Bader could stop the fight or something! Was very confident in Rampage if in half-decent shape, but with this injury I'm not so sure, so taken Bader at +200 before it gets any worse.

Great decision bro, better not to risk on Rampage right now, Bader is coming for the fight of his life and Rampage doesn't looks like even close to his better.

[zoo youk]

Boetsch will be flat on his back until he gets submitted or TKOed. This is one of the worst matchups for Boetsch stylistically.

i'm gonna go ahead and lay the chalk.

[rocky mattioli]

even though it`s a ufc format,i`m really curious to see how being back in japan affects these japanese fighters...it`s not hard to grasp what a major culture shock it would be for japanese fighters coming to the states(i`d say much more than it would be for we callous westerners)...

very curious to see if japanese mma really is in the shitter or whether having them fight in a more familiar environment makes a huge difference in how things shake out......obviously it could affect some more than others,but i`m really looking hard at guys like akiyama/yamamoto and hioki(i wish gomi wasn`t fighting a homeboy) to see if these japanese stars show their old form on home turf.......or whether maybe they`re just not up to ufc standards.....

akiyama and hioki aren`t exactly getting handed walkovers....

7 fights on the main card?.....i just might get up off the 50 beans tonight....

[Vitooch]

i'm gonna go ahead and lay the chalk.

Parlay it with Shields, Kongo or Pettis

[Vitooch]

V can you do one of those MMA contests again? I missed the last few and am itching to get in on one. And considering the shit talking that goes on on a daily basis, this could be interesting.

[Vaughany]

V can you do one of those MMA contests again? I missed the last few and am itching to get in on one. And considering the shit talking that goes on on a daily basis, this could be interesting.

Will at some point. Im still owed points from Gabe and Calculator from the last one tho!

[Vaughany]

Updated summary of UFC 144 plays:


10 units on Pettis/Lauzon FOTN at +750 to win 75 units;


6.666 units on Edgar/Henderson FOTN at +375 to win 24.997 units;


Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;


Parlay (double): 2.273 units on Ben Henderson (+110), & Jon Jones (-400) to win 3.694 units;


Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;

Parlay: 6.373 units on Not De Fries by TKO/KO (-3600), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Edgar by Decision (+144), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 39.495 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;


Parlay: 3.187 units on Salas/Kuivanen Over 2.5 Rounds (-135), Rampage/Bader to Go the Distance (Evens), & Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280) to win 11.869 units;


Parlay: 3.191 units on Ellenberger (-375), Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.208 units;


Parlay (double): 11 units on Okami (-275) and Shields (-250) to win 10 units;


Parlay: 6.3 units on Hioki/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-490), Pettis (-250), & Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 3 (-665) to win 5.917 units;


Parlay: 1.575 units on Hioki/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-490), Pettis (-250), Shields/Akiyama Starts Round 2 (-802), Kongo Inside the Distance (Evens), Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 3 (-665), & Not Thiago Alves Inside the Distance (-780) to win 6.176 units;


13.335 units on Kongo at -210 to win 6.35 units;


Parlay (double): 6.349 units on Kongo (-290), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.613 units;


3.75 units on Kongo by TKO/KO at +200 to win 7.5 units;

hedged with:

3 units on Not Kongo Inside the Distance at +125 to win 3.75 units;


8.498 units on Kongo by Decision at +481 to win 40.877 units;

hedged with:

37.5 units on Kongo/Hunt to Not Go the Distance at -250 to win 15 units

(Also got an arb with more on Not Distance at -250 and Fight Goes Distance at +380 so will make 0.274 units if it doesnt go distance or 7.122 units if it does go distance);


0.63 units on Shields SOTN at +1500 to win 9.45 units;


5 units on Cantwell at +260 to win 13 units;

hedged with:

7 units on Fukuda by Decision at -137 to win 5.109 units.

Hioki line didn't get to -145 to -155 range as I'd hoped. So have had to settle for buying back on my 60 units on Palaszewski at +175 with 16.25 units on Hioki at -162.5 and 80 units at -175. So now have:

4.286 units on Palaszewski at +204.15 to win 8.75 units.


Also arbed out of the 50 units on Shields at -250 with Akiyama at +306 so have a risk free play on Akiyama to win 11.2 units.

[Vaughany]

Updated summary of UFC 144 plays:


10 units on Pettis/Lauzon FOTN at +750 to win 75 units;


6.666 units on Edgar/Henderson FOTN at +375 to win 24.997 units;

0.338 units on Edgar/Henderson FOTN at +400 to win 1.352 units;


Parlay: 0.324 units on Woodley/Mein Over 2.5 Rounds, Evans (-140), Condit (+145), & Benson Henderson (+105) to win 4.107 units;


Parlay (double): 2.273 units on Ben Henderson (+110), & Jon Jones (-400) to win 3.694 units;


Parlay: 1.605 units on Rivera/Schafer Under 2.5 Rounds (-205), Not Guillard by Submission (-11000), Ellenberger (-255), & Ben Henderson (+105) to win 5.272 units;


Parlay: 6.373 units on Miocic (-440), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 18.554 units;

Parlay: 6.373 units on Not De Fries by TKO/KO (-3600), Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-765), Ellenberger/Sanchez Starts Round 2 (-410), Edgar by Decision (+144), Schaub (-260), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 39.495 units;


Parlay: 6.371 units Simpson/Markes Starts Round 2 (-593), Not Bader Inside the Distance (-905), Rory MacDonald (-380), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-900) to win 5.814 units;


Parlay: 3.187 units on Salas/Kuivanen Over 2.5 Rounds (-135), Rampage/Bader to Go the Distance (Evens), & Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280) to win 11.869 units;


Parlay: 3.191 units on Ellenberger (-375), Edgar/Henderson to Go the Distance (-280), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.208 units;


Parlay (double): 11 units on Okami (-275) and Shields (-250) to win 10 units;


Parlay: 6.3 units on Hioki/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-490), Pettis (-250), & Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 3 (-665) to win 5.917 units;


Parlay: 1.575 units on Hioki/Palaszewski Starts Round 2 (-490), Pettis (-250), Shields/Akiyama Starts Round 2 (-802), Kongo Inside the Distance (Evens), Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 3 (-665), & Not Thiago Alves Inside the Distance (-780) to win 6.176 units;


13.335 units on Kongo at -210 to win 6.35 units;


Parlay (double): 6.349 units on Kongo (-290), & JDS/Overeem to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 3.613 units;


3.75 units on Kongo by TKO/KO at +200 to win 7.5 units;

hedged with:

3 units on Not Kongo Inside the Distance at +125 to win 3.75 units;


8.498 units on Kongo by Decision at +481 to win 40.877 units;

hedged with:

37.5 units on Kongo/Hunt to Not Go the Distance at -250 to win 15 units

(Also got an arb with more on Not Distance at -250 and Fight Goes Distance at +380 so will make 0.274 units if it doesnt go distance or 7.122 units if it does go distance);


0.63 units on Shields SOTN at +1500 to win 9.45 units;

0.148 units on Shields SOTN at +900 to win 1.332 units;


5 units on Cantwell at +260 to win 13 units;

hedged with:

7 units on Fukuda by Decision at -137 to win 5.109 units.


4.286 units on Palaszewski at +204.15 to win 8.75 units;

0.126 units on Palaszewski by TKO/KO at +1200 to win 1.512 units;


0.5 units on Hunt KOTN at +1000 to win 5 units;


0.11 units on Kongo SOTN at +2000 to win 2.2 units;


0.2 units on Hioki SOTN at +2500 to win 5 units;


0.2 units on Bader SOTN at +5000 to win 10 units;

0.042 units on Bader SOTN at +5500 to win 2.31 units;


Parlay: 3.15 units on Mizugaki/Cariaso to Go the Distance (-270), Okami/Boetsch Starts Round 2 (-617), Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 2 (-942), & Alves/Kampmann to Go the Distance (-300) to win 4.248 units;


Parlay: 0.63 units on Tamura (+225), Mizugaki/Cariaso to Go the Distance (-270), & Ben Henderson (+130) to win 5.824 units;


Parlay: 0.63 units on Mizugaki by Decision (-135), & Tottenham PK (+110) to win 1.673 units;


1.29 units on Mizugaki by Decision at Evens to win 1.29 units;


0.523 units on Rampage by TKO/KO at +250 to win 1.308 units;

1.026 units on Rampage/Bader to Not Go the Distance at +125 to win 1.282 units;

1.151 units on Rampage/Bader Under 2.5 Rounds at +110 to win 1.266 units.


Also got risk free play on Bader by decision to win 5.044 units.

[mikea33]

Rampage line all the way down to -175.....thoughts V?

[NunyaBidness]

Will at some point. Im still owed points from Gabe and Calculator from the last one tho!

Surprise, surprise.

[Vaughany]

Rampage line all the way down to -175.....thoughts V?

I'd play him by TKO/KO if anything. Got a few small plays on that, and got Not Bader Inside distance in a number of parlays so got enough riding on him not getting finished!

[mikea33]

If it keeps creeping down i might make it. Hes a vet, wouldnt go into a main event fight knowing hes hurting and out of shape

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay (double): 3.15 units on Mizugaki (-300), & Henderson (+130) to win 6.51 units.

[mikea33]

rampage down to -150 on my book. im tempted to pound it.

[5mike5]

took a stab at Joe Luazon +243...thought it has some value over pettis...

[thes0vereign]

Took a small bet on Cantwell, BOL Vaughany

[Vaughany]

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck

[Vaughany]

Edgar/Henderson has got dodgy decision all over it!

[Vaughany]

Adding:


2.5 units on Pettis by Decision at +300 to win 7.5 units;

hedged with:

1.908 units on Fight to Not Go the Distance at -150 to win 1.272 units;

1.76 units on Fight Under 2.5 Rounds at -137.5 to win 1.28 units.

[Vaughany]

Adding (live-in-play bet):


22.5 units on Hioki/Palaszewski to Go the Distance at -150 to win 15 units.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Tailed u on some of these plays, Vaughany.

When its all said and done, if I am up, I'm gonna throw u a point for each unit I'm up.

Lauzon got KTFO!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Adding (live-in-play bet):


22.5 units on Hioki/Palaszewski to Go the Distance at -150 to win 15 units.

Which book are you using? I dont see it available on 5dimes.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Maybe you did it after the 2nd round before the 3rd round started?

[Vaughany]

Maybe you did it after the 2nd round before the 3rd round started?

Nah, on Unibet

[rocky mattioli]

helllloo boetsch?.....lol....the blind squirrel finds an acorn....

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay: 6.3 units on Shields (-360), Edgar/Henderson Starts Round 2 (-835), & Tottenham PK (+109) to win 12.54 units.

[Vaughany]

helllloo boetsch?.....lol....the blind squirrel finds an acorn....

Wowza! Glad I only had one play with Okami in!

[Vaughany]

Tht's my night screwed! Need the Edgar/Henderson fight to go distance and be FOTN big time now

[Vaughany]

Adding:


6.3 units on Rampage in Round 1 at +400 to win 25.2 units;

hedged with:

19.341 units on Rampage/Bader Starts Round 2 at -307 to win 6.3 units.

[ddream1]

rampage had him and couldn't go after him, his legs look weak, definately injuried

[mikea33]

wow rampage got manhandled