UFC on ESPN+ 4: Lewis vs. Dos Santos (March 9, 2019)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hes 35, which is by no means old in the sport but someone who went against the best for 10 years takes a toll...hes also lost every major fight since 2012...His decisions vs Stipe the only thing that stands as worthy. Theres two angles here...You believe Lewis is the real deal in the division and can get to Junior before the final bell...orrrr you think Lewis is just another meat bag on Juniors redemption run since 2012...

I for one believe the former in that Lewis provides a very real threat to him and has value @2.55

So main event victories against Stipe Miocic, Ben Rothwell, Blagoi Ivanov, and Tai Tuivasa don't count as "major fights" in your book? That's not even mentioning JDS' Spinning Hook Kick KO against Mark Hunt in 2013.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Like I get where you're coming from but the specific reasoning and justification seems off.

[Thrilla]

Event Background

The event will mark the promotion's first visit to Kansas.^[2]

A heavyweight bout between former UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior dos Santos and former title challenger Derrick Lewis is expected to serve as the event headliner.^[3]

As a result of the cancellation of UFC 233, a women's bantamweight bout between former Invicta FC Bantamweight Champion and UFC Women's Featherweight Championship challenger Yana Kunitskaya and Marion Reneau was rescheduled for this event.^[4]

Daniel Spitz was expected to fight Jeff Hughes at the event. However, Spitz pulled out of the fight on in February 2019 citing injury and he was replaced by Maurice Greene.^[5]

[Thrilla]

Lewis never lost 2 in a row according to his record.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lewis never lost 2 in a row according to his record.

Interesting. You're right.

[Thrilla]

Interesting. You're right.

Dos Santos didn't either but he is not the one coming off a loss nor is the underdog in this fight.


hmmm both have similar records

[JIBBBY]

^^^Yup Beast should be motivated after getting embarrassed by DC... He is a man of pride.. Just need to know if he trained well leading up or if his bad back is giving him trouble? I'll look to read reports later on in the week.. I do expect to see Black Beast weighing in 20 pounds heavier at fight time also..

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Derrick-Lewis-59284

Even if JDS catches wind like this he will go down ...

[Thrilla]

Should be careful with Smolka. He has got a drinking problem and thought about retiring not so long ago and become a pro gamer. LOL idiot has no idea...you can't just become a pro-gamer let alone at his age. Need a high reaction time for starters.

[t dog]

just saw an interview that Lewis has been working on a movie so it’s not just his back that you have to worry about with his training. Also his record is very misleading after watching more of his fights. He never looks great but somehow pulls it off with that huge lucky right hand. If you people are going to bet him it better be by knock out because he will not win a decision over santos.

[Thrilla]

just saw an interview that Lewis has been working on a movie so it’s not just his back that you have to worry about with his training. Also his record is very misleading after watching more of his fights. He never looks great but somehow pulls it off with that huge lucky right hand. If you people are going to bet him it better be by knock out because he will not win a decision over santos.

Trust me we know and welcome aboard.

[JIBBBY]

just saw an interview that Lewis has been working on a movie so it’s not just his back that you have to worry about with his training. Also his record is very misleading after watching more of his fights. He never looks great but somehow pulls it off with that huge lucky right hand. If you people are going to bet him it better be by knock out because he will not win a decision over santos.

Always prop KO with Lewis, he doesn't win by decision or submission typically.. If you work on a movie set that doesn't necessarily mean you're not training.. It is being filmed in his Native Houson city and it says early 2019 he will be filming.. Little gray area there.. https://mymmanews.com/derrick-lewis-...ole-pop-rocks/

[firekillex]

motivation and wanting to win literally means nothing lol.. both guys wanna win its a professional sport , this has 0 to do with the fight whatsoever , anybody whos an athlete would tell you the same thing... both guys are coming in to knock each other out. If Lewis' back is still messed up and he cant move after 1-2 rounds he will get pieced up by one of the most technical strikers in the HW division. JDS isnt probably going to be champion again but hes very talented and can put together combos well which is Lewis achilles heel imo a striker who can use movement and throw multiple strike combos to keep him on the outside, but of course Lewis has that scary power and can be losing for 99% of the fight and KO you

[JIBBBY]

motivation and wanting to win literally means nothing lol.. both guys wanna win its a professional sport , this has 0 to do with the fight whatsoever , anybody whos an athlete would tell you the same thing... both guys are coming in to knock each other out. If Lewis' back is still messed up and he cant move after 1-2 rounds he will get pieced up by one of the most technical strikers in the HW division. JDS isnt probably going to be champion again but hes very talented and can put together combos well which is Lewis achilles heel imo a striker who can use movement and throw multiple strike combos to keep him on the outside, but of course Lewis has that scary power and can be losing for 99% of the fight and KO you

Some fighters just look for a paycheck if they are already considering retiring.. Sure they may come out swinging but deep inside they are looking for a quick way out of the fight and want to avoid pain and injury.. You see that alot in older fighters.. Just saying..

[t dog]

Hurlysweetpants-hedge-everything-non sense or whatever your name is. just curious who you are putting your money on. After looking at your post history I see a lot of silly bets. I just want to know who gets your money for this fight? Thanks.

[Sato]

Lewis is a clear dog bet for me. Juniors lost it when Juniors team didnt stop the Cain fights. These destroyed him. I do think Junior is the better fighter but he wont stick and move and that one time he will get clipped.

It IS a tough card to bet tough.

[t dog]

No doubt tough card to bet. However Don’t waste your time listening to hurly sweet pants, look at this guys post history. He wants you to hedge the Smolka fight. I do believe Smolka may win but why waste time on a coin flip and then he also wants to hedge the fight, Complete non sense! You guys are over thinking this jds/ Lewis match. Jds trains harder and has more weapons/ experience.... public loves “my balls are hot” so hopefully jds drops back down to the -205 range so you guys can get a lot better value than I did at my local casino who now has him at -250.

[TPowell]

Tough card here guys. I think props are the way to play this one as you can see from my plays below. I'm thinking there is very good value on White/Moret FGTD. It has dropped all the way down to -125 now. I'm waiting to play it and maybe Smolka ITD if it gets to +250 or so.

https://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90

[TPowell]

Lot of talk here on the Smolka/Schnell fight. I took Schnell at +160 at the opener because I made the fight a pick with a slight lean to Schnell initially. After looking more into it, I think Schnell may be in some trouble here. His technical striking is good but his chin is VERY poor and I think Smolka could big brother him on the mat if scrambles do happen. Schnell kind of has to fight a perfect fight here to win while Smolka just has to land a decent shot and get the fight to the ground where he should do well. Schnell is competent on the mat as well, but I think Smolka thrives on guys like Schnell who aren't overwhelming wrestlers. I don't like the future for either guy at 135 though. Schnell doesn't really have any business at this weight class as small as he is and I think Smolka loses to most decent fighters in the division with some wrestling and decent standup

[HurlSweatPants]

No doubt tough card to bet. However Don’t waste your time listening to hurly sweet pants, look at this guys post history. He wants you to hedge the Smolka fight. I do believe Smolka may win but why waste time on a coin flip and then he also wants to hedge the fight, Complete non sense! You guys are over thinking this jds/ Lewis match. Jds trains harder and has more weapons/ experience.... public loves “my balls are hot” so hopefully jds drops back down to the -205 range so you guys can get a lot better value than I did at my local casino who now has him at -250.

Learn to read then come talk to me. Want to talk about post history, you just joined 2 days ago. You have 8 posts, all of which looks to be written my an illiterate bum.

No need to give you any info, and this is the wrong forum to talk shit about hedging. You'll be gone in a month anyway.

[HurlSweatPants]

Lot of talk here on the Smolka/Schnell fight. I took Schnell at +160 at the opener because I made the fight a pick with a slight lean to Schnell initially. After looking more into it, I think Schnell may be in some trouble here. His technical striking is good but his chin is VERY poor and I think Smolka could big brother him on the mat if scrambles do happen. Schnell kind of has to fight a perfect fight here to win while Smolka just has to land a decent shot and get the fight to the ground where he should do well. Schnell is competent on the mat as well, but I think Smolka thrives on guys like Schnell who aren't overwhelming wrestlers. I don't like the future for either guy at 135 though. Schnell doesn't really have any business at this weight class as small as he is and I think Smolka loses to most decent fighters in the division with some wrestling and decent standup

That's where I am at, unless Schnell has turned into a power puncher over night, I don't see him posing much of a threat. Smolka has better clinch work, top control, a better sub game, and if it gets wild, he thrives with scrambles and reversals. And if we want to talk about striking, he's not levels below Schnell, only a slight disadvantage.

[TPowell]

That's where I am at, unless Schnell has turned into a power puncher over night, I don't see him posing much of a threat. Smolka has better clinch work, top control, a better sub game, and if it gets wild, he thrives with scrambles and reversals. And if we want to talk about striking, he's not levels below Schnell, only a slight disadvantage.

I disagree. Schnell definitely isn't a power striker at all. His lack of poor and chin are his two biggest issues at 135 and even was an issue at 125. His technique is really good but he can get sucked into brawls at times which turns to disaster. Off topic but does anybody remember the CAGED show on MTV 10+ years ago? He was on that show as an amateur. I think Smolka is proper play here but Schnell by DEC isn't bad if you like Schnell.

[HurlSweatPants]

I disagree. Schnell definitely isn't a power striker at all. His lack of poor and chin are his two biggest issues at 135 and even was an issue at 125. His technique is really good but he can get sucked into brawls at times which turns to disaster. Off topic but does anybody remember the CAGED show on MTV 10+ years ago? He was on that show as an amateur. I think Smolka is proper play here but Schnell by DEC isn't bad if you like Schnell.

I didn't say he was a power striker, I said the complete opposite.

[TPowell]

I didn't say he was a power striker, I said the complete opposite.

I mean the striking technique, sorry. Schnell has decent volume at least while Smolka can be inactive throwing and neither guy has much power, even though Smolka definitely has a little more overall. I like Schnell's technical abilities outside of his wrestling which isn't awful. He just doesn't have the physical measurables like size and power, especially at 135. Combining that with an awful chin is just too much to back against decent competition.

[Teem]

Means, Dariush, Rocco Martin, and "The Great White" Morono for a parlay. Maybe throw in Yana and Reneau FGTD.

[JIBBBY]

MMAMANIA write ups coming in. PART 1...Prelims...





135 lbs.: Louis Smolka vs. Matt Schnell

Louis Smolka (15-5) — once on the verge of Flyweight title contention — washed out of UFC after four consecutive losses. “Da Last Samurai” picked up three wins on the regional circuit before successfully returning to the Octagon with an armbar finish of Sumudaerji in Nov. 2018.
Seven of his 13 stoppage wins have come by submission.
Matt Schnell (12-4) entered TUF 24 as the Legacy Flyweight champion and choked out Matthew Rizzo before tapping to eventual winner Tim Elliott. He suffered knockout losses to Rob Font and Hector Sandoval in his first two UFC appearances, but has since gotten back on track with decisions over Marco Antonio Beltran and Naoki Inoue.
“Danger” is one inch shorter than Smolka, but will have a four-inch reach advantage.
Schnell has been one of the more underwhelming TUF 24 alumni, giving up takedowns to most of his Octagon opponents, showing a poor chin, and barely squeaking past a skilled but extremely green Naoki Inoue in his most recent bout. For all of Smolka’s inconsistency, this looks like a winnable fight for him — Schnell doesn’t have the size or takedowns to physically dominate “Da Last Samurai,” nor particularly potent striking.
Against a chinny opponent without overwhelming wrestling, Smolka’s durability and submission prowess should carry the day. Expect him to either clip Schnell standing or drag him down in transition en route to a submission finish.
Prediction: Smolka via second-round submission
Related
Lewis Calls Out Miocic Because Dos Santos Is ‘Weak’


170 lbs.: Alex Morono vs. Zak Ottow

Alex Morono (15-5) started his UFC career perfect (2-0), but has alternated losses and wins since a knockout defeat to Niko Price was overturned because of Price testing positive for marijuana. He earned “Fight of the Night” for his most recent effort, an entertaining decision over Song Kenan in Beijing.
Despite his free-swinging style, “The Great White” has earned more wins by submission (six) than knockout (four).
Zak Ottow (17-6) has likewise struggled to put two consecutive wins together in the Octagon, going 4-3 without a single win streak. His last time out, he took on knockout artist Dwight Grant and defied lopsided odds to win a narrow split decision.
He has submitted 10 opponents and knocked out another three.
Ottow is a strange case — three of his four UFC victories were by split decision and, save for brief spurts of violence against Mike Pyle and Sage Northcutt, he never seems to get out of first gear. Morono, by contrast, never stops coming, making up for his technical deficiencies with gusto and a solid chin. In addition, he’s got a surprisingly strong ground game to fall back on should Ottow actually make an effort to take it to the mat.
Ottow just doesn’t do enough to earn a decision against someone as aggressive as Morono and he lacks the finishing ability to take the judges out of the equation. Morono outworks him in a brawl to win a decision.
Prediction: Morono via unanimous decision
Related
18 + 14 = KTFO


155 lbs.: Alex White vs. Dan Moret

Alex White (12-5) went 2-2 as a Featherweight in the Octagon, including a win over the inimitable Artem Lobov, before making the move to 155 pounds in 2017. Unlike Martin — whom White faced in his divisional debut — he hasn’t found similar success, going 1-3 and suffering a submission loss to Jim Miller in his last bout.
His 10 stoppages are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Dan Moret (13-4) did well for himself in organizations like RFA and LFA, losing only to future UFC competitors Luke Sanders, Bobby Moffett and Raoni Barcelos. He made his Octagon debut against Gilbert Burns last April, but succumbed to “Durinho’s” power early in the second round.
Five of his eight submission wins have come in the first round.
You can’t really fault Moret for getting nuked by Burns — that tends to happen to a lot of people lately. Still, he’s come up short in every attempt to step up so far, and though he’s clearly skilled on the mat, he just seems like he can’t take the next step.
Neither can White, admittedly, so this is an interesting match up in that sense. White’s the better striker, but his takedown defense consistently fails him, making this a toss-up against the grappling-focused Moret. It’s a coin flip, but considering Moret’s lack of size and leaky defense, I say White survives some early grappling trouble to take him out with punches.
Prediction: White via second-round technical knockout

[t dog]

Let’s leave the name calling out of this Mr. sweat pants. Also I have no problem with hedging anything, just don’t see the point with this card unless you see some real opportunity to make some money here. I posted my one play for this card, now you post yours. After looking at your post history I may try to fade you and make a few dolllars. I’m going to keep track of all your plays. Thanks for your time.

[HurlSweatPants]

Let’s leave the name calling out of this Mr. sweat pants. Also I have no problem with hedging anything, just don’t see the point with this card unless you see some real opportunity to make some money here. I posted my one play for this card, now you post yours. After looking at your post history I may try to fade you and make a few dolllars. I’m going to keep track of all your plays. Thanks for your time.

I'll address you one more time, then you can fade away like most of the trolls on here eventually do.

You said you looked at my post history, which first off is a little creepy, get off my sack. If you did, you would see that I called Askren HC (which was my biggest bet), Usman dec, and Zabit dec. I lost on Misha, as did a lot of sharp bettors. If you want to go to the event before, I had Ngannou, Fili, and Sterling. I use this forum to bounce ideas off of other solid cappers who spend a lot of time doing this shit, not to post picks for anyone else. Nonetheless, I study tape and do my homework, and while not always right, I have no problem standing behind my picks.

When I addressed you the first time, I told you that JDS should win this fight, but to think he is a -300 is asinine, and nothing will change. One more time, bc you seem to have issues with retention, but I think JDS will win. To say he is a -300 favorite against a guy that just fought for the belt and is 3-1 in his last 4, with the power he has in a HW fight, that is as about a ridiculous comment as someone can make. If you don't want to get called out and can't take the heat, either back up what you say with concrete evidence, or get out of your feelings. Saying he "trains harder" just goes to show you have no clue. Unless you are in either one of their camps, you have not the slightest penetrating clue who trains harder.

The worst part is that you then go into someone elses thread to provoke me, like a troll would. You say you are going to fade my picks, yet you don't know what they are....explain that? I picked JDS, so are you now taking Lewis? You also act like taking JDS is some astounding sharp move, he's a 2-1 favorite, bold move Cotton....On top of that, you took a shitty line to lay that much chalk.

If you have a problem, shoot something to my inbox, but don't clog up this thread with your bullshit, and definitely don't go searching for me and penetrating up others threads, its such a weak move. Respond if you must, but this is that last time I will address you unless you want to get down to talking fights and actually trying to make money.

[t dog]

Easy google/ YouTube search my man will show you the admiration jds gets for his training schedule. The same search will show you the concerns many have with Lewis’s lack of training. Plus please stop bringing up his damn title fight, everyone knew that was a last minute “my balls are trending” fill in last minute scam by the ufc...
I said this might end up with jds being -300 at the local casinos and it seems to be headed that way. I see some real value with jds even at -250 because this match up poses some serious problems for Lewis. Pick your spots and I believe this one is easy money. My biggest bet was on Askren as well and I will flip it on jds.

[TPowell]

I think Lewis is about 5 to 1 here and the best capper I know with nearly a 50% roi over 2+ years told me so. Jds has what others didnt have and that is the footwork and speed with sharp boxing plus the gas to not get tired and let Lewis land the big shot

[HurlSweatPants]

Easy google/ YouTube search my man will show you the admiration jds gets for his training schedule. The same search will show you the concerns many have with Lewis’s lack of training. Plus please stop bringing up his damn title fight, everyone knew that was a last minute “my balls are trending” fill in last minute scam by the ufc...
I said this might end up with jds being -300 at the local casinos and it seems to be headed that way. I see some real value with jds even at -250 because this match up poses some serious problems for Lewis. Pick your spots and I believe this one is easy money. My biggest bet was on Askren as well and I will flip it on jds.

BOL. Not sure where you live but sounds like you are getting crushed with that line, -250 is murder right now esp for that much juice IMO. JDS is -204 on Pinnacle and -205 a few other places, -225 at the highest that I see on 5d.

[t dog]

True, much better odds online. I was just being lazy because I was already at the casino picking up cash from the Askren win. Bol to you as well if you decide to bet on this card.

[LandonBang]

I like lewis a lot and have made good money with him but I have always worried about him against the class of the division. Gotta mix in technique with that power.

[magpie878]

+170 vs -210 for the main event right now on DK. I'm probably going a little on Lewis in hopes of a haymaker connecting.

+194 vs -251 on PointsBet too.

[PaperTrail07]

This is a Tee Up win for JDS but he could still lose it LOL.....should be able to easily outbox lewis and aovid the right hand....even if hit , he has a chin given for god himself......awesome fight here IMO.....

[PaperTrail07]

I got to the casino and play BJ.....more than ready to toss some $ at this LOL...but I get it....edge feels lower than most cards...

Card seems very bad for betting.