UFC on ESPN+ 4: Lewis vs. Dos Santos (March 9, 2019)

**bjpenn85** · 03-03-19, 03:39 PM

Card seems very bad for betting.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-03-19, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Card seems very bad for betting.

Agreed. My biggest challenge here will be staying disciplined and not forcing bets just for action's sake.

**bjpenn85** · 03-03-19, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Agreed. My biggest challenge here will be staying disciplined and not forcing bets just for action's sake.

I forgot to add a parlay in my thread, but i have one last leg with Tim Means, but im thinking about hedging and taking a cut back in max profit, cause i dont f trust tim means. Very talented skillwise, but not very bright. Wouldnt hurt with a college education i tell ya. But outside that i need to apply caution, even harder for me who constantly looses even when prefight plays seems logical, they still end up terrible somehow someway. Betting on cards like this wont make profiting easier though.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-03-19, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

I forgot to add a parlay in my thread, but i have one last leg with Tim Means, but im thinking about hedging and taking a cut back in max profit, cause i dont f trust tim means. Very talented skillwise, but not very bright. Wouldnt hurt with a college education i tell ya. But outside that i need to apply caution, even harder for me who constantly looses even when prefight plays seems logical, they still end up terrible somehow someway. Betting on cards like this wont make profiting easier though.

I think you should let it ride or hedge with a Price prop rather than Price ML.

**HurlSweatPants** · 03-03-19, 08:05 PM

Love Smolka at dog money, someone talk me out of it.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-03-19, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by HurlSweatPants

Love Smolka at dog money, someone talk me out of it.

That fight seems like a pass to me. Smolka doesn't offer much on the feet and isn't too good at getting the fight to the mat. Relies on grappling scrambles to win which isn't a formula for consistent success.

**JIBBBY** · 03-03-19, 10:03 PM

This event can't come soon enough..

Derrick Lewis always bet on black and by KO.. Tim Means ITD too.. Nikko gets shell shocked under the bright lights.. Dirty Bird will grind him and finish. Gotta fade Tim Boetsch and Ben Rothwell too.

**JIBBBY** · 03-03-19, 10:05 PM

Fade all the old vets in this event and I think you clean up..

**Demonata** · 03-03-19, 10:18 PM

A tough card, i like it. I enjoy watching dirty bird. Kind of want to take boetsch and rothwell....

**t dog** · 03-03-19, 10:41 PM

Dos Santos should be at least -300 imo. Yes Lewis has reach and size but who the hell has he beat. He looked horrible on that McGregor card. Honestly don’t even remember who he beat that night but he was losing the whole fight. Battle tested/ experience , better cardio, better boxing for Santos. Please explain why anyone should put money on Lewis?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-03-19, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by t dog

Dos Santos should be at least -300 imo. Yes Lewis has reach and size but who the hell has he beat. He looked horrible on that McGregor card. Honestly don’t even remember who he beat that night but he was losing the whole fight. Battle tested/ experience , better cardio, better boxing for Santos. Please explain why anyone should put money on Lewis?

Alexander Volkov.

**JIBBBY** · 03-03-19, 11:04 PM

Depends if The black beast is trained up and his back is not shot.. One good shot to the chin to JDS and I think he gets dropped.

JDS has a good chance if he goes to his wrestling though and makes the fight go into deep waters.. I still like DL by KO maybe though.. JDS has been cracked and dropped before..

Derick Lewis coming off a loss to DC and should be motivated I think to show up. JDS not a world beater any more at age 35. JDS has been KO'd in 3 of his last 7 fights.. Chin is suspect.. Black Beast can drop the bomb.

JDS doesn't fair well against black heavy punchers either

Black Beast is a big boy also..

**JIBBBY** · 03-03-19, 11:09 PM

IF JDS can think and fight to the ground though I like him..

**t dog** · 03-04-19, 12:26 AM

Yes santos has been knocked out by Overeem and Stipe. Stipe has been on a complete tear since losing to santos in 2014, so no shame in that one. Lewis has not faced the same level of competition as Santos. My only worry is Lewis’s reach and knockout power because santos will push and not let this be a boring headlining fight. You have to ask yourself who is the more experienced fighter with the most weapons here. At the end of the day all heavy weights have a punchers chance but do you feel comfortable putting a big bet on a powerful right hand. Lewis needs more weapons. We will see.

**firekillex** · 03-04-19, 01:19 AM

Lewis is the worst HW with big wins imo his power has saved him so many times 3-4 times i can remember just off the top of my head fights he was losing and landed a hail mary bomb to win.. can never really go big on his opponent because his power is so insane though.... but Dos Santos is just a better fighter plain and simple

**cryptocap** · 03-04-19, 03:15 AM

Junior is zapped tho...Lewis is not half the fighter he is but with that power it will be too much for Junior...fade the fav

**t dog** · 03-04-19, 04:01 AM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kQIGpuG95xM little more insight from other ufc fighters. The last clip about Lewis not training much because of his back is troubling. If santos fights smart he should win with no problems. I’m not going big because I’m worried about this one being a head lining fight so santos might have to push the pace to make it exciting and get caught.. I believe odds are now santos -250 at a local book.

**HurlSweatPants** · 03-04-19, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

That fight seems like a pass to me. Smolka doesn't offer much on the feet and isn't too good at getting the fight to the mat. Relies on grappling scrambles to win which isn't a formula for consistent success.

True, his stand up isn't polished by any means, and he is at his best when he can scramble or reverse position.

However he dominated Nguyen in every aspect of their fight, and handled Elliot a lot better than Schell did. Schnell may have a better technical advantage, but I don't believe he has the power to take Smolka out. Smolka is going to press him, force scrambles, and make this a dog fight like he normally does.

Maybe it is more of a fade on Schnell, I just don't see him winning this fight. I will definitely hedge a DEC, but I just cant put my faith in a guy who was 0-2 before getting 2 victories (both decisions, one split) against fighters that aren't even in the promotion anymore.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-04-19, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by HurlSweatPants

True, his stand up isn't polished by any means, and he is at his best when he can scramble or reverse position.

However he dominated Nguyen in every aspect of their fight, and handled Elliot a lot better than Schell did. Schnell may have a better technical advantage, but I don't believe he has the power to take Smolka out. Smolka is going to press him, force scrambles, and make this a dog fight like he normally does.

Maybe it is more of a fade on Schnell, I just don't see him winning this fight. I will definitely hedge a DEC, but I just cant put my faith in a guy who was 0-2 before getting 2 victories (both decisions, one split) against fighters that aren't even in the promotion anymore.

What about playing Smolka SNA or ITD then hedging with Schnell Decision? Smolka seems like the more likely finisher as you said but he rarely wins if he doesn't finish. Schnell on the other hand is easier to finish but seems more likely to win rounds.

**HurlSweatPants** · 03-04-19, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

What about playing Smolka SNA or ITD then hedging with Schnell Decision? Smolka seems like the more likely finisher as you said but he rarely wins if he doesn't finish. Schnell on the other hand is easier to finish but seems more likely to win rounds.

That's where I am heading, want to see what the props look like of course, but I was thinking Smolka SNA if the line is appeasing, that way if Schnell outpoints him to win a DEC it nulls out.

**JIBBBY** · 03-04-19, 11:20 AM

Daruish vs Dober is an interesting match up? I think you have to like Daruish in that one.. Dober is an active fighter though, moves around alot..

**JIBBBY** · 03-04-19, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by firekillex

Lewis is the worst HW with big wins imo his power has saved him so many times 3-4 times i can remember just off the top of my head fights he was losing and landed a hail mary bomb to win.. can never really go big on his opponent because his power is so insane though.... but Dos Santos is just a better fighter plain and simple

He can knock ya out with one punch..JDS better tuck that chin. Derrick Lewis will come in as the much bigger man too..

I still can't believe Roy took this on the chin and remained standing.. JDS will be out cold if he takes one on the chin like this below.

**firekillex** · 03-04-19, 01:07 PM

Juniors chin has actually held up pretty well lately tbh... Tai Tuivasa is basically another version of Lewis with less power , Dos Santos got caught a few times in that fight though .. HWs with this power always hard to bet big on because anything can happen

**JIBBBY** · 03-04-19, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

Juniors chin has actually held up pretty well lately tbh... Tai Tuivasa is basically another version of Lewis with less power , Dos Santos got caught a few times in that fight though .. HWs with this power always hard to bet big on because anything can happen

True that.. One punch from either fighter can be a game changer in the HW division especially when both the fighters aren't wrestling based and both can throw sledge hammers for punches..

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-04-19, 05:18 PM

I was at that fight where Lewis hit Nelson with that huge right hook. Spit flew out of his mouth several feet in the air. Biggest punch I’ve ever witnessed in person.

**JC2008** · 03-04-19, 06:25 PM

Lewis +200. Maybe JDS in some parlays though but I sure can't lay no -250 if it's not a Boxing fight.

**t dog** · 03-04-19, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by cryptocap

Junior is zapped tho...Lewis is not half the fighter he is but with that power it will be too much for Junior...fade the fav

if you are going to make such a bold statement about Santos please explain how he is zapped. I’m curious because he just proved his last two fights that he still has a chin and knockout power. How did Lewis look in his last three? I still think santos has decent value at -250.

**Demonata** · 03-04-19, 08:35 PM

Dariush means parlay looks really good to me!

**HurlSweatPants** · 03-04-19, 08:36 PM

Originally posted by t dog

if you are going to make such a bold statement about Santos please explain how he is zapped. I’m curious because he just proved his last two fights that he still has a chin and knockout power. How did Lewis look in his last three? I still think santos has decent value at -250.

Speaking of bold statements, you said the line should be -300 LOL!!!

You also asked who Lewis beat. Ummm, how about Ngannou, Volkov, Tybura just in the last 2 years.

Lewis is 3-1 in his last 4, and just fought for the belt. Your boner for JDS is over the top, he should win this fight but he's definitely not anywhere near a -300 favorite.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-04-19, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by Demonata

Dariush means parlay looks really good to me!

I like it!

**Demonata** · 03-04-19, 09:25 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I like it!

I think dober isn't that good at defending takedowns at all and as long as dariush fights smart he should win fairly easy. Going to be dariush decision or dober itd imo.

**cryptocap** · 03-04-19, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by HurlSweatPants

Speaking of bold statements, you said the line should be -300 LOL!!!

You also asked who Lewis beat. Ummm, how about Ngannou, Volkov, Tybura just in the last 2 years.

Lewis is 3-1 in his last 4, and just fought for the belt. Your boner for JDS is over the top, he should win this fight but he's definitely not anywhere near a -300 favorite.

which is why I am not going to even explain myself to him.

**t dog** · 03-04-19, 10:26 PM

not that bold of a statement because line was listed at -205 when I made that statement. It’s been going up since I guess because I Just placed my bet at -250 today unfortunately. As for Lewis’s last four fights just go rewatch them and tell me you are comfortable placing money on him for this fight. Again I ask cryptocap why is jds “zapped”. Just curious...

**cryptocap** · 03-04-19, 11:13 PM

Hes 35, which is by no means old in the sport but someone who went against the best for 10 years takes a toll...hes also lost every major fight since 2012...His decisions vs Stipe the only thing that stands as worthy. Theres two angles here...You believe Lewis is the real deal in the division and can get to Junior before the final bell...orrrr you think Lewis is just another meat bag on Juniors redemption run since 2012...

I for one believe the former in that Lewis provides a very real threat to him and has value @2.55