UFC on ESPN+ 4: Lewis vs. Dos Santos (March 9, 2019)

[bjpenn85]

I often find it easier to bet on someone going the distance, than betting inside distance. Especially in the lower weight classes, stats also shows that its a lot harder to finish people than end up on the cards. I havent really looked at this line specifically, maybe theres value there, but dawson, hes coming from a layoff? Big x-factor, so this fight as a whole, is a no bet alone, just because of that. Than trying to be cute, betting distance prop? Sounds like a bad idea. This card isnt for betting. Stay away is my tip.

[CasaBonita]

any bookie where i can bet FOTN?
5D use to have it but not anymore...

[t dog]

Jds looked pissed in that face off. Maybe Lewis is getting in his head with this weakest opponent bs because he knows his only chance is clipping jds, if he can make it a brawl.

[TPowell]

Jds looked pissed in that face off. Maybe Lewis is getting in his head with this weakest opponent bs because he knows his only chance is clipping jds, if he can make it a brawl.

If they brawl, it would only take a couple body shots from jds to completely destroy Lewis imo

[Demonata]

Just showing success when you back him up. That's all.

Oh and Stipe KO'd JDS just to correct your statement..

Junior is 35 years old now.. Not a spring chicken anymore..

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Junior-dos-Santos-17272

Yeah so much older than 34 year old derrick lewis...

[Shagdogy]

Have the same thoughts on Schnell. He seems like a pretty smart fighter and has been making adjustments in his previous few fights where Schnell's sharping looks sharper and sharper and training at AKA will help him shore up those defensive grappling holes which are worrisome. As far as chin is concerned, it may be improved at 135 (as well as his power). He should beat up Louis easily on the feet. I feel like the chin issues may be overblown too. He took a pretty hard shot from Font at 135 well before that knee which would probably put anyone else out. The hammerfists that put him out came after getting slammed on his head hard twice, so who knows how compromised he was by those.

Smolka on the other hand has taken a lot of damage in the past two fights and was very fortunate that his opponents weren't better grapplers. I feel like Smolka peaked a long time ago and hasn't been doing anything new. He will need TDs here, which alredy puts him at a disadvantage, but his top control has never been good enough to grind out wins. It may be that Smolka has a bigger frame at 135 than Schnell and can keep him down, but at worst it's a very close fight for Schnell if it is 50/50 striking/grappling. If Schnell can force Smolka to miss on TD attempts, it'll look bad for Smolka in the eyes of the judges by how desperate he looks doing them. So we're getting underdog odds on either a close fight at worse, or a pretty clear victory if it stays standing.

Pulled trigger on Schnell decision +200 and am waiting on further movement on the ML since it seems to be going back to the original opener.

PS Welcome to the board Penny, appreciate your thoughts.

I'm on board with this logic. I haven't really gone deep into this fight, but this is how I think I would view it. Schnell decision seems not a bad play. I need to go rewatch Smolka's last fight, but I feel like he looked a little bit better than previous fights. May have benefited from a solid matchup though. Sumudaerji just couldn't hang in the grappling. Schnell is much more well versed. He prioritizes TDD then he will just have to show that he can deal with pressure over 3 rounds.

[Shagdogy]

Guys schnell is very weak for 135. Rob font big brothered him to the mat not that long ago. Smolka will definitely be able to create scrambles here I believe

I have always viewed physicality as a major tragic flaw of Smolka. He is definitely no Rob Font. Font is quite a big, strong fighter at that weight class and Smolka is a string bean with very little explosiveness/power. I can see some arguments against Schnell but this is not one of them. Smolka has never been a physically imposing fighter.

[bjpenn85]

I'm on board with this logic. I haven't really gone deep into this fight, but this is how I think I would view it. Schnell decision seems not a bad play. I need to go rewatch Smolka's last fight, but I feel like he looked a little bit better than previous fights. May have benefited from a solid matchup though. Sumudaerji just couldn't hang in the grappling. Schnell is much more well versed. He prioritizes TDD then he will just have to show that he can deal with pressure over 3 rounds.

Schnell dec is a good bet, but be aware that Smolka is not interested to box with Schnell, he will force takedowns as relentless as Maia. So the fight may become dirty and chaotic instead of finesse striking from schnell on the outside, which is desirable, but perhaps utopic?

[t dog]

If they brawl, it would only take a couple body shots from jds to completely destroy Lewis imo

Oh I get it. I’m about to drop more money on jds. Pick your spots wisely( I don’t go big that often) and I’m feeling good with jds. As sweat pants said I have a “boner” for jds in this fight. Free money is what gets me excited.

[CasaBonita]

I can see Lewis puting pressure and KO Dos Santos inside 3 rounds or i can see Dos Santos out class Lewis like he did with ben rothwell... i think ill just pass would love to take Dos Santos -5.5 opening line tho

Good Luck guys staying out of this one!

[TPowell]

I have always viewed physicality as a major tragic flaw of Smolka. He is definitely no Rob Font. Font is quite a big, strong fighter at that weight class and Smolka is a string bean with very little explosiveness/power. I can see some arguments against Schnell but this is not one of them. Smolka has never been a physically imposing fighter.

The fact is though that Font is NOT an offensive wrestler at all and he was easily able to take Schnell down. Working at ATT, maybe that has improved but I think its VERY unlikely that Smolka doesn't initiate some scrambles in this fight and take advantage.

[TPowell]

In other news, I thought Rothwell looked decent on the scale for a massive guy that has been out of the octagon for 3 years.

[JIBBBY]

Yeah so much older than 34 year old derrick lewis...

In fighting years Lewis is much younger.. JDS has been in some serious wars lately..

Lewis by KO or JDS ITD sub/ko is the only way I see this fight going.. I highly doubt it goes the distance..

[Demonata]

In fighting years Lewis is much younger.. JDS has been in some serious wars lately..

Lewis by KO or JDS ITD sub/ko is the only way I see this fight going.. I highly doubt it goes the distance..

I think jds is in better shape than lewis. I see a jds decision.

[Sanity Check]

Lewis still has an injured back and isn't 100% healthy, if I'm remembering right.

If Lewis lands flush on the chin, he can finish JDS.

But JDS is so good with that hit-and-run-away style, stats are in his favor.

[JIBBBY]

I think jds is in better shape than lewis. I see a jds decision.

Maybe Dem if you are only looking at JDS.. I just think 5 rounds is a long time for either fighter to go based on their past histories and age..

Beast has only gone to decision 2 times in his career and those were 3 rounders.. Farthest he's gone in any fight is 4 rounds.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Derrick-Lewis-59284

I can't bet that and feel good about it going to the decision.. Value on this prop is garbage too..

1011 Dos Santos wins by 5 round decision

+260

[JIBBBY]

Dem if anything DC just sub'd Lewis out via RNC in his last fight and that could be the blue print for beating Beast in JDS's mind if he can get him to the ground..

Ground him and sub him when he gasses.. JDS is a Brazilian Black belt bottom line, I think he may try to use that in this fight if he can get into the later rounds and get the Black Beast gassed out and take his back..

This is a hedge for me... Still like the Beast by KO..

$100.00

$775.00

Pending

3/9/19 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1039 Dos Santos wins by submission +775* vs Any other result

[Demonata]

Its a 5 round fight?

[firekillex]

Its a 5 round fight?

any main even is 5 rounds now amigo
tbh 5 rounds is actually better for Lewis imo since hell have more time to get a KO

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 4: Dos Santos vs. Lewis Picks:
Dan Moret Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Alex Morono Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Matt Schnell Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Jeff Hughes Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Yana Kunitskaya Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Sergio Moraes Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Grant Dawson Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Tim Boetsch Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Beneil Dariush Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Ben Rothwell Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Tim Means Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Curtis Millender Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Junior Dos Santos Round 2 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 4: Dos Santos vs. Lewis

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Moret vs. White
Moret+White Won’t Go Distance (+115) .5u
Moret ITD (+330) .5u
Moret Submission (+450) .5u

Fight #2: Morono vs. Ottow
No Bet

Fight #3: Schnell vs. Smolka
No Bet

Fight #4: Hughes (DEBUT) vs. Greene
Hughes (-150) 1.5u to win 1u

Hedge:
Greene Submission (+650) .5u

Fight #5: Kunitskaya vs. Reneau
Kunitskaya (-153) 3.83u to win 2.5u

Hedge:
Reneau ITD (+380) 1u

Fight #6: S. Moraes vs. Martin
S. Moraes+Martin Won’t Go Distance (-145) 1.45u to win 1u
S. Moraes (+180) 1u
S. Moraes Submission (+435) .5u

Hedge:
Martin Round 3 (+950) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Dawson (DEBUT) vs. Erosa
Dawson+Erosa Won’t Go Distance (-180) 1.8u to win 1u
Dawson ITD (-107) 1.07u to win 1u
Dawson Submission (+450) .75u

Fight #8: Boetsch vs. Akhmedov
Boetsch+Akhmedov Won’t Go Distance (-165) 2.48u to win 1.5u
Boetsch (+180) 1u
Boetsch Round 2 (+550) .5u
Boetsch Round 3 (+950) .5u

Fight #9: Dariush vs. Dober
Parlays

Hedge(s):
Dober Scorecards = No Action (+254) .5u
Dober KO/TKO (+670) .5u

Fight #10: Rothwell vs. Ivanov
Rothwell+Ivanov Won’t Go Distance (-110) 1.1u to win 1u
Rothwell Submission (+670) .75u

Fight #11: Means vs. Price
Means -3.5 (-130) 1.3u to win 1u

Hedge:
Price Submission (+570) .5u

Fight #12: Millender vs. Zaleski dos Santos
Millender+Zaleski dos Santos Goes Distance (-150) 1.5u to win 1u

Fight #13: Dos Santos vs. Lewis
Dos Santos (-145) 1.45u to win 1u
Dos Santos Decision (+414) .5u

Hedge(s):
Lewis KO/TKO (+270) 1u
Lewis Round 3 (+1000) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Dariush/Means (+125) 1u
Hughes/Dariush (+127) 1.75u

Prop Parlays:
Dariush+Dober GD/Means+Price WGD (+142) 1u
Dawson+Erosa WGD/Dariush+Dober GD/Means+Price WGD (+258) .5u
Dawson Submission/Dariush Decision/Rothwell Submission/Means Round 2 (+50108) .1u

Full Card Props:
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+385) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+975) .3u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+2925) .2u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Jones/Means (-131) 2.63u to win 2u
Hughes/Reyes (+105) 1.5u
Means/Reyes (+106) 1u
Stamann/Means (+147) 1u

[Penny2323]

GET IT Hugo!! Goodluck.

[Penny2323]

That JDS number is getting enticing would love to see it under -200. Lewis getting a lot of love for somebody whose been dominated in his last two bouts all but 10 seconds.. he also lucked out an drew a gunshy Ngannou I would be surprised if he beats Junior in this spot. Gl all

[bjpenn85]

UFC on ESPN+ 4: Dos Santos vs. Lewis

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Moret vs. White
Moret+White Won’t Go Distance (+115) .5u
Moret ITD (+330) .5u
Moret Submission (+450) .5u

Fight #2: Morono vs. Ottow
No Bet

Fight #3: Schnell vs. Smolka
No Bet

Fight #4: Hughes (DEBUT) vs. Greene
Hughes (-150) 1.5u to win 1u

Hedge:
Greene Submission (+650) .5u

Fight #5: Kunitskaya vs. Reneau
Kunitskaya (-153) 3.83u to win 2.5u

Hedge:
Reneau ITD (+380) 1u

Fight #6: S. Moraes vs. Martin
S. Moraes+Martin Won’t Go Distance (-145) 1.45u to win 1u
S. Moraes (+180) 1u
S. Moraes Submission (+435) .5u

Hedge:
Martin Round 3 (+950) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Dawson (DEBUT) vs. Erosa
Dawson+Erosa Won’t Go Distance (-180) 1.8u to win 1u
Dawson ITD (-107) 1.07u to win 1u
Dawson Submission (+450) .75u

Fight #8: Boetsch vs. Akhmedov
Boetsch+Akhmedov Won’t Go Distance (-165) 2.48u to win 1.5u
Boetsch (+180) 1u
Boetsch Round 2 (+550) .5u
Boetsch Round 3 (+950) .5u

Fight #9: Dariush vs. Dober
Parlays

Hedge(s):
Dober Scorecards = No Action (+254) .5u
Dober KO/TKO (+670) .5u

Fight #10: Rothwell vs. Ivanov
Rothwell+Ivanov Won’t Go Distance (-110) 1.1u to win 1u
Rothwell Submission (+670) .75u

Fight #11: Means vs. Price
Means -3.5 (-130) 1.3u to win 1u

Hedge:
Price Submission (+570) .5u

Fight #12: Millender vs. Zaleski dos Santos
Millender+Zaleski dos Santos Goes Distance (-150) 1.5u to win 1u

Fight #13: Dos Santos vs. Lewis
Dos Santos (-145) 1.45u to win 1u
Dos Santos Decision (+414) .5u

Hedge(s):
Lewis KO/TKO (+270) 1u
Lewis Round 3 (+1000) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Dariush/Means (+125) 1u
Hughes/Dariush (+127) 1.75u

Prop Parlays:
Dariush+Dober GD/Means+Price WGD (+142) 1u
Dawson+Erosa WGD/Dariush+Dober GD/Means+Price WGD (+258) .5u
Dawson Submission/Dariush Decision/Rothwell Submission/Means Round 2 (+50108) .1u

Full Card Props:
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+385) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+975) .3u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+2925) .2u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Jones/Means (-131) 2.63u to win 2u
Hughes/Reyes (+105) 1.5u
Means/Reyes (+106) 1u
Stamann/Means (+147) 1u

Youre one intelligent human being Hugo! These bets - you done a hell of a job!

[slikec]

Hugo knows MMA. He beats closing line by nice margin almost everything he bets which is amazing considering how many bets he is making.

[t dog]

would love to know where you got jds at -145? Bol man

[bjpenn85]

would love to know where you got jds at -145? Bol man

Its about being first. Hes first, so gets the best lines. Everything starts with 5dimes at tuesdays, then the other bookies follow. Occationally some other bookies tries to set lines themselves, and they will be off, but they also have very low limit to prevent loss.

[Shagdogy]

Not loving the spots on this card. Trying to show at least some restraint, but of course I ended up betting more than I intended. Here’s what I’m on so far:

Reneau +160, win 2u
Erosa +160, win 1.3u

Means/Price WGD -225, win 1u
Akhmed/Boetsch WGD -200, win 1u
ZDS/Millender WGD +137, win 1u
Rothwell sub +650, win 1.5u

Martin/Means/JDS parlay +247, risk 1u
Hughes/Dariush parlay +120, risk 1u

Think that’s gonna be it.

[Demonata]

any main even is 5 rounds now amigo
tbh 5 rounds is actually better for Lewis imo since hell have more time to get a KO

I have a feeling lewis is going to gas fast with jds picking him apart and body shots.

[UncleChael]

The only Big Ben I know is a clock tower in London. Rothwell ITD +200.
Tell 'em Uncle Chael sent ya, you're welcome.

[Hugo de Naranja]

would love to know where you got jds at -145? Bol man

That's where he opened. Was (-145) for less than 30 seconds.

[bjpenn85]

I have a feeling lewis is going to gas fast with jds picking him apart and body shots.

How many Lewis vs Volkov performances can one have without loosing? Is it sustainable? Beeing beat up for every second in every round and then win?

[UncleChael]

Derrick Lewis is going to put out Junior Dos Santos tonight...

[HurlSweatPants]

That JDS number is getting enticing would love to see it under -200. Lewis getting a lot of love for somebody whose been dominated in his last two bouts all but 10 seconds.. he also lucked out an drew a gunshy Ngannou I would be surprised if he beats Junior in this spot. Gl all

-195 on 5d FYI.

Surprisingly the HC isn't far from the straight line, holding at -175.

[Hugo de Naranja]

-195 on 5d FYI.

Surprisingly the HC isn't far from the straight line, holding at -175.

I'm hoping it resets to a better price.