UFC on ESPN+ 4: Lewis vs. Dos Santos (March 9, 2019)

[HurlSweatPants]

“Usman dec, and Zabit dec. I lost on Misha, as did a lot of sharp bettors.” ...Hurly sweat pants after the fight.

2-26. Hugo said I’m betting Usman,

2-26 hurly sweat pants reply , I’m definitely staying off this one.

Come on man this is silly, just be honest about your bets. I’m sure you would get more respect that way. Now did you really put 10 bucks on jds or not because you hyped up Lewis the whole damn time.

Lol, man you are the gift that keeps on giving. This troll bets one heavy favorite bc he is self admitted too lazy to open an online account (which at minimum is 50$), trying to come on a chat board and swing big dick. If you need 50$ man, just ask, I am sure between your moms side job and all that big money you're throwing at the casinos, you're lazy ass can pony up 50 bucks to open an account.

You took JDS at -250, there is nothing more that needs to be said. Not even a novice bettor would take that without parlaying, and most bettors that make money have multiple books to get the best line. You, however, drive to the casino and throw wads of cash on the counter to take -250 lol. GTFO. Hey everyone, this is t dog, his name is indicative of his betting technique. Pure trash.

You seem to have my post history memorized (although you're too dumb to copy and paste what I actually said). I'll give you some chalky odds since that's what you like, I will give you -300 that you cannot go 10 posts without mentioning my name.

[t dog]

Calm down keyboard warrior, we already established you can’t evaluate a fight correctly so we know damn well you wouldn’t talk to anyone in real life that way.


You admitted you lost money last year. Enough said, I’ll take the chalk and money I made. Now start that thread and list your bets( pre fight of course because I’ve alresdy caught you in multiple lies after the fact from your post history ). -500 odds you refuse to list your bets. I have absolutely no problem listing all mine.

[TPowell]

You guys not wanting to lay juice are hilarious. Who cares laying 2 or 3 to 1 if it has an 80+ percent chance of cashing or more?

[HurlSweatPants]

You guys not wanting to lay juice are hilarious. Who cares laying 2 or 3 to 1 if it has an 80+ percent chance of cashing or more?

If you're speaking on me, HUGE difference between laying juice, and taking a shitty line. Taking -250, when it closed at -180 is throwing away money.

[t dog]

If you're speaking on me, HUGE difference between laying juice, and taking a shitty line. Taking -250, when it closed at -180 is throwing away money.

My largest bet was when the line hit -200. Of course I could’ve found better odds online, you are definitely a rocket scientist for figuring out that one. However I make one or two bets a month after I over analyze the match up. I’m not trying to open up five accounts and get caught up in the matrix because I know damn well I will start making unnecessary bets. This fight Screamed free money which doesn’t happen at these odds often so I hope everyone made some money. I don’t see any up coming cards that I even want to bet on, so I will sit back and watch the Circus.

[TPowell]

If you're speaking on me, HUGE difference between laying juice, and taking a shitty line. Taking -250, when it closed at -180 is throwing away money.

True but unless you are looking at this 24/7 and taking it super seriously which I doubt most are, you can't predict those late money movements. For example, I laid NOT Ivanov ITD at -350 and that was by far the worst the line ever was. I can't predict what idiots are going to do. The only thing I knew was that Ivanov doesn't have any real power and Rothwell is durable as hell.

[Demonata]

If you're speaking on me, HUGE difference between laying juice, and taking a shitty line. Taking -250, when it closed at -180 is throwing away money.

Throwing away money is when you bet and it loses. Not a bad line...

[bjpenn85]

Throwing away money is when you bet and it loses. Not a bad line...

But constantly getting bad lines, still if they cash, wouldnt you then earn less? isnt it just not another way of loosing money.

A less obvious one, i get that, but its still loosing money.

[magpie878]

Late to this, but not knowing most guys on this one, I sat out until the main event.

That Means fight was a fun one to watch, certainly didn't expect that sudden ending.

Ended up putting a good size bet on the main event not going the distance and a baby bet on Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ. Came out ahead, so good enough.

[Thrilla]

But constantly getting bad lines, still if they cash, wouldnt you then earn less? isnt it just not another way of loosing money.

A less obvious one, i get that, but its still loosing money.

Like I said the dumbest dumb fukk on SBR. He's a fukking moron. Stop wasting your energy on that fool. I tried to treat him with respect teach him things about betting aswell. This motherfukker will stab you in the back when he loses. Fkking piece of shit. Nothing but cancer comes out of his mouth. Half his post could cause a healthy person brain cancer.

[Thrilla]

JDS Post-Fight

[bjpenn85]

Like I said the dumbest dumb fukk on SBR. He's a fukking moron. Stop wasting your energy on that fool. I tried to treat him with respect teach him things about betting aswell. This motherfukker will stab you in the back when he loses. Fkking piece of shit. Nothing but cancer comes out of his mouth. Half his post could cause a healthy person brain cancer.

Haha, thast one hell of a combo. Demonata is like that character cartman imitates, when he tries to be a nascar driver...AND THEN YOU TURN TO LEEEEEEEEFT. Call me crazy, but i find demonata pretty funny to be honest.

[Demonata]

Like I said the dumbest dumb fukk on SBR. He's a fukking moron. Stop wasting your energy on that fool. I tried to treat him with respect teach him things about betting aswell. This motherfukker will stab you in the back when he loses. Fkking piece of shit. Nothing but cancer comes out of his mouth. Half his post could cause a healthy person brain cancer.

I would fuk you till you loved me fa/ggot. You are easily the fakest poster here snowflake. You never treat me with respect kid.

[Demonata]

Haha, thast one hell of a combo. Demonata is like that character cartman imitates, when he tries to be a nascar driver...AND THEN YOU TURN TO LEEEEEEEEFT. Call me crazy, but i find demonata pretty funny to be honest.

I respect every one here except for thrilla. I wish he would go play in traffic. He's as fake as hillary or obamas beliefs.

[bjpenn85]

I respect every one here except for thrilla. I wish he would go play in traffic. He's as fake as hillary or obamas beliefs.

But Donald Trumps somehow, is not one of the worst liers of the history of mankind? I understand that there are things to hate with hilary and obama, i get that, but how do you not see that Trump is 1000000000x worse? Its very hard to understand that logic.

Trump does some cool things though. He forced whole of europe to spend more money on military, so i can see that he does some cool things as well. But maaaaaaan, he penetrates up so many things as well. Hes pure evil actually if you see some of the cutbacks he does socially and also allowing super dangerous toxins in the industry, thing that has been banned for years. Why? Just to go against Obama. Man is super duper crazy and fakked up.

Im not really sure you understand the ramification of being a trump voter. I think you have some good arguments for being a trump voter, but you fail to see the big picture. But hey, what do i know? Maybe the world needed one period with trump to shake things up.

[Demonata]

But Donald Trumps somehow, is not one of the worst liers of the history of mankind? I understand that there are things to hate with hilary and obama, i get that, but how do you not see that Trump is 1000000000x worse? Its very hard to understand that logic.

Trump does some cool things though. He forced whole of europe to spend more money on military, so i can see that he does some cool things as well. But maaaaaaan, he penetrates up so many things as well. Hes pure evil actually if you see some of the cutbacks he does socially and also allowing super dangerous toxins in the industry, thing that has been banned for years. Why? Just to go against Obama. Man is super duper crazy and fakked up.

Im not really sure you understand the ramification of being a trump voter. I think you have some good arguments for being a trump voter, but you fail to see the big picture. But hey, what do i know? Maybe the world needed one period with trump to shake things up.

Create millions of new jobs (the White House claims as many as 3 million) and bring unemployment down to 3.9 percent, the lowest since 2000 He has secured the release of 19 people, including 16 Americans, from foreign captivity. Manufacturing jobs grew at the fastest rate in 23 years and the unemployment rate for Americans without a high school diploma reached the lowest point ever recorded.Wages rose 3.1 % the highest since 2009. The United States passed both Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s top oil producer. In the six months after the Singapore summit with North Korea, he has made no concessions to Pyongyang. He struck Syria again and eliminated the last vestiges of the Islamic State’s physical caliphate.

That's just to name a few. Lot's of people hate on trump with no facts or reasoning. Since the iq in America today is so low and everyone is offended over everything. Results and facts matter to me. Who cares what he says as long as america keeos getting better. Also one of my friends was killed by an illegal immigrant. Trump making them be legal to get in to the country I'm all for.

[bjpenn85]

Create millions of new jobs (the White House claims as many as 3 million) and bring unemployment down to 3.9 percent, the lowest since 2000 He has secured the release of 19 people, including 16 Americans, from foreign captivity. Manufacturing jobs grew at the fastest rate in 23 years and the unemployment rate for Americans without a high school diploma reached the lowest point ever recorded.Wages rose 3.1 % the highest since 2009. The United States passed both Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s top oil producer. In the six months after the Singapore summit with North Korea, he has made no concessions to Pyongyang. He struck Syria again and eliminated the last vestiges of the Islamic State’s physical caliphate.

That's just to name a few. Lot's of people hate on trump with no facts or reasoning. Since the iq in America today is so low and everyone is offended over everything. Results and facts matter to me. Who cares what he says as long as america keeos getting better. Also one of my friends was killed by an illegal immigrant. Trump making them be legal to get in to the country I'm all for.

But he sort of creates jobs in sectors that harm the environment.

Being top oil producer is that positive? Norway has now stopped investing in oil, after being one of the top traders in the world in many decades. Trump knows its an easy way to money, but its an loosing strategy.

Its like betting 1000 dollars on a big fav at -800, and then go AHA, TOLD YOU HE WOULD WIN, I TOLD YAAAAA.

everyone is like, yeah dumb penetrate, we know...we know you won, but the strategy is flawed.

Who cares if job rates are skyrockets? if the human race dont live past 2130-2140?

At the same time, being unemployed sucks, its a part of the societys responsibility, so Obama can be blamed.

The world is complex and difficult. But survival must me one of the most important things on the Agenda.

I think Trump wants tax cut rather than the human race surviving.

[HurlSweatPants]

Any MMA insight for this card? You guys talked shit about clogging up the thread then I come on here and its political talk about a president who called Tim Cook, Tim Apple. And then doubled down on it....to save time LOL. GTFO.

Can we please get back to something MMA related.

[HurlSweatPants]

Inge went from dog money at the opener, to -150 range. Duffy line going in the opposite direction, -265 to -210 in a matter of days.

[Demonata]

Any MMA insight for this card? You guys talked shit about clogging up the thread then I come on here and its political talk about a president who called Tim Cook, Tim Apple. And then doubled down on it....to save time LOL. GTFO.

Can we please get back to something MMA related.

This fight card already happened. It was last Saturday. Of course a trump hater makes some more dumb comments.

[HurlSweatPants]

This fight card already happened. It was last Saturday. Of course a trump hater makes some more dumb comments.

Trump hater lol? You know nothing about me. But you "respect" every one on here right?

[PaperTrail07]

Can we please leave politics and finger pointing out of the thread lol....JFC.....look to see whats posted and I see this......wtf...

[bjpenn85]

Have anyone made some bets yet?

Im confident in this bets:

Wood + Reyes parlay! It will pay the bill without a sweat i think.

[bjpenn85]

Have anyone made some bets yet?

Im confident in this bets:

Wood + Reyes parlay! It will pay the bill without a sweat i think.

If someone doesnt further stimulate to mma conversation, im willing to go back to politics, just for the sake of speaking my mind.

So dont be sitting here and say nothing and expect super sweet reflections about mma, if you say nothing yourself. Kabllæææm

[HurlSweatPants]

Need to watch more film on Wood, I think it was TPowell who was on Quionnes b/c of fighter IQ and motor, but I could be wrong.

[HurlSweatPants]

I say we move this discussion to the current fight thread, this one seems to be a spawn for silly talk.

[Demonata]

I say we move this discussion to the current fight thread, this one seems to be a spawn for silly talk.

You were part of the "silly talk"

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 4: Dos Santos vs. Lewis Picks:
Dan Moret Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Alex Morono Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Matt Schnell Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Jeff Hughes Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Grant Dawson Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Yana Kunitskaya Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Sergio Moraes Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Tim Boetsch Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Beneil Dariush Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Ben Rothwell Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Tim Means Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Curtis Millender Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Junior Dos Santos Round 2 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 4: Dos Santos vs. Lewis

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Moret vs. White
Moret+White Won’t Go Distance (+115) -.5u
Moret ITD (+330) -.5u
Moret Submission (+450) -.5u

Result: Alex White Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Fight: -1.5u
Card: -1.5u

Fight #2: Morono vs. Ottow
No Bet

Result: Alex Morono Round 1 Verbal Submission (Elbows)

Fight #3: Schnell vs. Smolka
No Bet

Result: Matt Schnell Round 1 Submission (Triangle Choke)

Fight #4: Hughes (DEBUT) vs. Greene
Hughes (-150) -1.5u

Hedge:
Greene Submission (+650) -.5u

Result: Maurice Greene Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Fight: -2u
Card: -3.5u

Fight #5: Dawson (DEBUT) vs. Erosa
Dawson+Erosa Won’t Go Distance (-180) -1.8u
Dawson ITD (-107) -1.07u
Dawson Submission (+450) -.75u

Result: Grant Dawson Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 29-27)
Fight: -3.62u
Card: -7.12u

Fight #6: Kunitskaya vs. Reneau
Kunitskaya (-153) +2.5u

Hedge:
Reneau ITD (+380) -1u

Result: Yana Kunitskaya Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Fight: +1.5u
Card: -5.62u

Fight #7: S. Moraes vs. Martin
S. Moraes+Martin Won’t Go Distance (-145) -1.45u
S. Moraes (+180) -1u
S. Moraes Submission (+435) -.5u

Hedge:
Martin Round 3 (+950) -.5u

Result: Anthony Rocco Martin Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Fight: -3.45u
Card: -9.07u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Boetsch vs. Akhmedov
Boetsch+Akhmedov Won’t Go Distance (-165) -2.48u
Boetsch (+180) -1u
Boetsch Round 2 (+550) -.5u
Boetsch Round 3 (+950) -.5u

Added:
Boetsch KO/TKO (+225) -1u

Result: Omari Akhmedov Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Fight: -5.48u
Card: -14.55u

Fight #9: Dariush vs. Dober
Parlays

Hedge(s):
Dober Scorecards = No Action (+254) -.5u
Dober KO/TKO (+670) -.5u

Result: Beneil Dariush Round 2 Submission (Armbar)
Fight: -1u
Card: -15.55u

Fight #10: Rothwell vs. Ivanov
Rothwell+Ivanov Won’t Go Distance (-110) -1.1u
Rothwell Submission (+670) -.75u

Result: Blagoi Ivanov Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Fight: -1.85u
Card: -17.4u

Fight #11: Means vs. Price
Means -3.5 (-130) -1.3u

Hedge:
Price Submission (+570) -.5u

Result: Niko Price Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Fight: -1.8u
Card: -19.2u

Fight #12: Millender vs. Zaleski dos Santos
Millender+Zaleski dos Santos Goes Distance (-150) -1.5u

Result: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Fight: -1.5u
Card: -20.7u

Fight #13: Dos Santos vs. Lewis
Dos Santos (-145) +1u
Dos Santos Decision (+414) -.5u

Hedge(s):
Lewis KO/TKO (+270) -1u
Lewis Round 3 (+1000) -.25u

Added:
Dos Santos -5.5 (-175) +1u
Dos Santos Scorecards = No Action (-145) +1u
Dos Santos Round 2 (+500) +2.5u

Result: Junior Dos Santos Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Fight: +3.75u
Card: -16.95u

Straight Parlays:
Dariush/Means (+125) -1u
Hughes/Dariush (+127) -1.75u

Added:
Dariush/Dos Santos (+118) +1.18u

Results: See Above
Fights: -1.57u
Card: -18.52u

Prop Parlays:
Dariush+Dober GD/Means+Price WGD (+142) -1u
Dawson+Erosa WGD/Dariush+Dober GD/Means+Price WGD (+258) -.5u
Dawson Submission/Dariush Decision/Rothwell Submission/Means Round 2 (+50108) -.1u

Results: See Above
Fights: -1.6u
Card: -20.12u

Full Card Props:
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+385) -.5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+975) -.3u
Over 10.5 Fights Go Distance (+2925) -.2u

FOTN: Dos Santos+Lewis
POTN: Price, Dariush
Fastest Submission: Zaleski dos Santos R1 (2:35)
Fastest KO: Price R1 (4:50)
Decisions: 7
Results: See Above
Fights: -1u
Final Card Total = -21.12u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Jones/Means (-131) -2.63u
Hughes/Reyes (+105) -1.5u
Means/Reyes (+106) -1u
Stamann/Means (+147) -1u

Results: See Above
Fights: -6.13u
Multi-Event Parlays = -6.13u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Got absolutely owned on this card despite risking far less than usual. By far the worst card in my four year betting journey as far as percentage of bets won goes. Gave back a lot of my profit from UFC 235 but still up a good bit for the year.

Taking this loss on the chin and looking to put up better performances on the next few cards. Nights like these are obviously tough but they teach us good lessons which will improve us as bettors.

[TPowell]

Need to watch more film on Wood, I think it was TPowell who was on Quionnes b/c of fighter IQ and motor, but I could be wrong.

Yep, I can't believe how that line has went so crazy. Johnny Eduardo was beating the guy like a drum until he shot a TD for absolutely no reason and then got subbed because he's TERRIBLE outside of just striking (Nova Uniao's striking coach is why he doesn't fight much). He looked good against Ewell for sure but so did the ghost of Renan Barao before he just flat gassed as usual. You can look at Quinones and say he hasn't fought anybody and I would agree but he's beating lower level UFC guys by outworking them and putting a pace on them. The last thing I like is that he's a Mexican fighter that came out of TUF that fights once a year since 2015 (hasn't been pulled from ANY fights) and ALWAYS shows up much better than he was before due to him adding new skills and new wrinkles. I believe he's still at Alliance which is a great camp for someone who is always training like this kid.

[bjpenn85]

Yep, I can't believe how that line has went so crazy. Johnny Eduardo was beating the guy like a drum until he shot a TD for absolutely no reason and then got subbed because he's TERRIBLE outside of just striking (Nova Uniao's striking coach is why he doesn't fight much). He looked good against Ewell for sure but so did the ghost of Renan Barao before he just flat gassed as usual. You can look at Quinones and say he hasn't fought anybody and I would agree but he's beating lower level UFC guys by outworking them and putting a pace on them. The last thing I like is that he's a Mexican fighter that came out of TUF that fights once a year since 2015 (hasn't been pulled from ANY fights) and ALWAYS shows up much better than he was before due to him adding new skills and new wrinkles. I believe he's still at Alliance which is a great camp for someone who is always training like this kid.

I agree to some extent, but imo your overdoing your criticism a bit, which means that you arrive at the wrong conclusion here imo.