UFC 221: Rockhold vs. Romero (February 10, 2018)

[Shagdogy]

Both MMA mania write ups, and a lot of people on here and other forums around the web, seem to be in agreement that Ben Nguyen has significantly improved his grappling and scrambling ability since the Smolka fight and I have no idea where that assessment comes from. He has only fought twice since then and has not had to show that kind of scrambling in either fight.

Against Herrera he fought almost entirely on the feet. Herrera is strong but let's not act like he's an out of this world takedown threat. When he finally shot a double leg with 10 seconds left in round 2 he finished it easily. Nguyen didn't show any scrambling or ground game really in that fight, so then we assume he's so much better now because of what he did to Elliot? Let's talk about that...

First, the fight was super quick so no one showed a whole lot of anything. Nguyen stopped a single leg from Elliot that he didn't look very committed to at all and then took his back on a head throw. Once on the back he sunk in an RNC while Elliot inexplicably didn't fight the hands at all. Not even one. Good job by Nguyen but that's literally ONE sequence.

So why is everyone saying he's so improved since that Smolka fight, where one of the physically weakest fighters in the division eventually solidified his positions and beat him up badly? I just do not think Nguyen can hang with a grappling game as tight as Formiga's and I don't know if I trust him to not engage with the grappling at all costs.

[turbozed]

Nguyen did the same thing to Ryan Benoit as he did to Tim Elliot. Light him up on the feet, stuff a takedown, and then hang on him for a RNC win. It's another short glimpse but I don't think it's a necessarily a bad sign that Nguyen finishes some guys quick.

Here's my notes about Benoit's wrestling against Mokhtarian. Of course Benoit was rocked when he shot for a TD, but still...

ThoughBenoit doesn't have the same wrestling credentials as Moraga, he did startwrestling at 10 years old in Virginia. He went on to place in state wrestlingtournaments and represent Texas in a Junior National tournament. Benoit hasn'tshown a dominant wrestling and top game performance yet in the UFC. He hasshown some good scrambling ability and explosive hips, able to get up frombottom position from the few times he's been taken down (or when he's lethimself get taken down by jumping for guillotines). On 10 days notice, he wasable to counter wrestle Fredy Serrano, who represented Colombia in the Olympicsand won a bronze medal in the Pan American Games. It would be safe to assumethat he has the wrestling edge here.

[Sanity Check]

Anyone look at lines & think dogs will hit?

I'm getting that feeling...

[Shagdogy]

I feel like there's a number of matchups where one fighter is clearly more well rounded, but the other fighter does ONE thing really really well. For example:

Nguyen has the striking and is definitely a good scrambler and at least well versed on the mat, BUT Formiga's grappling is another level.

Volkanovski has power in his hands, good wrestling and strong GNP, BUT Kennedy can absolutely grind in the clinch and land TDs over and over.

Blaydes has very good wrestling, 80" of reach and improves his boxing each time out (been training with Duane Bang), and a solid chin, BUT Mark Hunt has that power.

Asker has decent boxing, good cardio, solid wrestling and good ground transitions BUT Tuivasa is just a steam roller with 20+ pounds on him.

It's interesting to look at all these fights and try to weigh the well rounded skill sets against opponents with that one unique trait or specialty.

[turbozed]

I feel like there's a number of matchups where one fighter is clearly more well rounded, but the other fighter does ONE thing really really well. For example:

Nguyen has the striking and is definitely a good scrambler and at least well versed on the mat, BUT Formiga's grappling is another level.

Volkanovski has power in his hands, good wrestling and strong GNP, BUT Kennedy can absolutely grind in the clinch and land TDs over and over.

Blaydes has very good wrestling, 80" of reach and improves his boxing each time out (been training with Duane Bang), and a solid chin, BUT Mark Hunt has that power.

Asker has decent boxing, good cardio, solid wrestling and good ground transitions BUT Tuivasa is just a steam roller with 20+ pounds on him.

It's interesting to look at all these fights and try to weigh the well rounded skill sets against opponents with that one unique trait or specialty.

You make a good point. It's also good to keep in mind for live betting purposes. When the less well-rounded fighter isn't successful at getting the fight to his strengths, it's a good time to bet on the more well rounded guy between rounds.

With regards to Blaydes, sometimes getting more well rounded works against the fighter. Blaydes might have gotten so good at striking that he might spend too much time doing it. His striking coach on UFC Countdown is there drilling shifting punches. I don't think this is a good use of time against Hunt. It's possible that Blaydes wins striking, but it's not very likely, and it's definitely a bad strategy.

Danaher had a good post about why being able to dictate where the fight takes place is one of the most important attributes to winning. Like we saw with Bochniak and Davis, Davis is just another level better than Bochniak at striking diversity and pocket exchanges. But he had no way to get Bochniak to fight that way because he just plodded forward and couldn't cage cut or lead from distance.

In the same way, Formiga will have to have the ability to take Nguyen down and create scrambles to be able to use his grappling advantage.

I think with Volkanovski, the jury is still out whether Kennedy is the better wrestler. Aside from his UFC fights and maybe 1 or 2 of his fights directly prior to signing with the UFC, his record is extremely padded with terrible competition. There's a good chance that Volk may be able to neutralize Kennedy in the clinch. However, Volk's striking variety and creativity in the clinch means that he'll be scoring points during that stalemate as well. I think we'll know very quickly whether or not Volkanovski wins comfortably or whether it's a grinding 50/50 fight after the first real grappling exchange.

[Shagdogy]

If Volkanovski gets steamed leading up to fight time and Kennedy looks good on the scale, I may stab at him. He's +166 now but it's not inconceivable he could hit 2-1.

[Shagdogy]

Turbo, great points. Particularly about the live betting.

With regards to Blaydes, I hope he knows not to strike with Hunt. Hunt is real good at lulling guys into some comfort before unloading on them. I'd hate to see Blaydes get comfy on the feet, but I do think he has the chin to get cracked once and hurry and change his mind back to wrestling. I'm pretty heavily invested in Hunt not getting that early KO so fingers crossed.

[HurlSweatPants]

Which book do you use?

I just started using 5d for MMA. The two other books I use dont have live wagering and the props are generally trash.

I looked again today and they have most of the props but I am not seeing any point handicap lines yet. Maybe I am missing something I would think they would be out by now....

[MMANick]

I just started using 5d for MMA. The two other books I use dont have live wagering and the props are generally trash.

I looked again today and they have most of the props but I am not seeing any point handicap lines yet. Maybe I am missing something I would think they would be out by now....

Sometimes they come out the day of the fights.

[HurlSweatPants]

Sometimes they come out the day of the fights.

Awesome, thanks for the info.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I just started using 5d for MMA. The two other books I use dont have live wagering and the props are generally trash.

I looked again today and they have most of the props but I am not seeing any point handicap lines yet. Maybe I am missing something I would think they would be out by now....

Their longtime oddsmaker Nick Kalikas moved on to another sports book so the full 20 props and point spreads have been slower that usual. I’m very interested to see what props they have available come fight day. Hopefully they don’t rein things back now that Kalikas is gone.

[HurlSweatPants]

Their longtime oddsmaker Nick Kalikas moved on to another sports book so the full 20 props and point spreads have been slower that usual. I’m very interested to see what props they have available come fight day. Hopefully they don’t rein things back now that Kalikas is gone.

Oh wow. Sounds about right since I just moved some money there specifically for MMA props. Do you happen to know what book he went to and if he will be sending out the same lines? I have heard that name before, not sure if he wrote for mmmania or BE.

[PaperTrail07]

yup same.....its been day of except top 2-3 fights for a few cards now...

Their longtime oddsmaker Nick Kalikas moved on to another sports book so the full 20 props and point spreads have been slower that usual. I’m very interested to see what props they have available come fight day. Hopefully they don’t rein things back now that Kalikas is gone.

[strictlypaypal]

Going to do a $500 parlay on Blaydes / Rockhold and just sit back and relax

[Demonata]

Only underdogs I like are minute hirota, nguyen, and yoel Romero.

[JIBBBY]

UFC 221 - Middleweight 5 rounds - Perth Arena - Perth, Australia - PPV
Sat 2/10		1001 Luke Rockhold		-150	o1½ -185
11:59PM		1002 Yoel Romero		+130	u1½ +160

I'm trying to think of ways to bet this Rockhold/Romero fight.. I could see Rockhold sinking in a sub when Romero gasses or I could see Romero catching Rockhold on the chin and winning by KO... Hmmm?

Luke is solid with his submissions and looks for them in fights.. Romero extremely hard to KO... Most of Luke's wins come by sub also..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Luke-Rockhold-23345

1035 Rockhold wins by submission

+300

On the flip 10 of Romero's 12 pro wins have come by KO simply said.. I also don't think Romero is gonna out work Luke for 5 rounds and win this fight by decision so it's KO or bust I believe... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yoel-Romero-60762

1041 Romero wins by TKO/KO

+202

Yoel
Romero
"Soldier of God"
vs
Luke
Rockhold

CUBA
Country
UNITED STATES

12-2-0
Record
16-3-0

83%
KO/TKO
38%

0%
SUB
50%

17%
DEC
13%

72 in
Height
75 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

73 in
Reach
77 in

42 in
Leg Reach
45 in

[TPowell]

Oh wow. Sounds about right since I just moved some money there specifically for MMA props. Do you happen to know what book he went to and if he will be sending out the same lines? I have heard that name before, not sure if he wrote for mmmania or BE.

I'm not sure. May listen to The Premium Oddscast on MMA Oddsbreaker later. He's on that podcast so hopefully he mentions it

[TPowell]

I couldn't resist Brown NO CARDS at +172. Opinion seems to be against me though so I put a unit down for now. Will be parlay NOT Kim ITD at the -271 for sure as well. Will let line movement dictate the rest. May take a stab at Brown ITD if it hits +500

[HurlSweatPants]

I'm not sure. May listen to The Premium Oddscast on MMA Oddsbreaker later. He's on that podcast so hopefully he mentions it

Listening to it now.

Also the points handicap is up at 5d for those interested.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 221 - Middleweight 5 rounds - Perth Arena - Perth, Australia - PPV
Sat 2/10		1001 Luke Rockhold		-150	o1½ -185
11:59PM		1002 Yoel Romero		+130	u1½ +160

I'm trying to think of ways to bet this Rockhold/Romero fight.. I could see Rockhold sinking in a sub when Romero gasses or I could see Romero catching Rockhold on the chin and winning by KO... Hmmm?

Luke is solid with his submissions and looks for them in fights.. Romero extremely hard to KO... Most of Luke's wins come by sub also..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Luke-Rockhold-23345

1035 Rockhold wins by submission

+300

On the flip 10 of Romero's 12 pro wins have come by KO simply said.. I also don't think Romero is gonna out work Luke for 5 rounds and win this fight by decision so it's KO or bust I believe... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yoel-Romero-60762

1041 Romero wins by TKO/KO

+202

Yoel
Romero
"Soldier of God"
vs
Luke
Rockhold

CUBA
Country
UNITED STATES

12-2-0
Record
16-3-0

83%
KO/TKO
38%

0%
SUB
50%

17%
DEC
13%

72 in
Height
75 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

73 in
Reach
77 in

42 in
Leg Reach
45 in

Luke does have a lot of his wins by submission and this was my initial thought as well. Romero doesn't have much of a neck to choke though. He's never lost by submission either.

[JIBBBY]

Luke does have a lot of his wins by submission and this was my initial thought as well. Romero doesn't have much of a neck to choke though. He's never lost by submission either.

So what do you like Luke by pound out like he did to Chris Weidman that is if Luke doesn't get KO'd first then? I could see Romero giving up his back and neck before getting pounded out in mount..

[HurlSweatPants]

Grabbed Blaydes -3.5 (+135), I am assuming the line wont be as juicy by the time the fight rolls around.

[turbozed]

I heard Kalikas moved to Bookmaker. But I can't verify.

I was considering a Bookmaker account anyway. A lot of good value in those lines lately (better prices than 5D)

[BIGDAY]

I heard Kalikas moved to Bookmaker. But I can't verify.

I was considering a Bookmaker account anyway. A lot of good value in those lines lately (better prices than 5D)

BMaker a great book.

But 5D is tough to beat for parlaying props

[JIBBBY]

Grabbed Blaydes -3.5 (+135), I am assuming the line wont be as juicy by the time the fight rolls around.

I'm liking Blaydes also in the match up.. Hunt is a hundred years old.. Blaydes even probably finishes him..

[TPowell]

Blaydes ML/Kim NOT ITD parlayed together gives you +122 (have it for 1 unit)

[TPowell]

I'm thinking about a play on Quinones the more I think about it. Ishihara's cardio was SO bad at 145 and now he's dropping to 135? I said earlier I didn't think he'd make the weight but he did. Now though, he has less than 24 hours to recover (less than normal) against a grinder and a guy that has steadily improved. Line is down in that -150 wasteland where you don't have to tease but you do have to give up a lot of juice.

[TPowell]

Someone asked me about the Matthews/Jingliang fight earlier and I still don't know honestly. Watched plenty of tape on Jingliang and he's just so different from everyone that Matthews has ever faced. I think Matthews could get frustrated and quit in this spot honestly. He's probably going to take quite a bit of damage because his wrestling isn't going to win every round for him. Jingliang will get his shot on the feet and he should hurt him. I'm leaning towards a sprinkle on the Jingliang R3 prop at +1225 because I feel like Matthews hasn't experienced this type of firefight before and by R3 he will be gassing with his new muscle and Jingliang should be able to land and make him quit. On the flip side though, Jake could grind on him early and make this an ugly fight. I would look at playing Jingliang live if you want him though because he's virtually a lock to start off slow and lose round one.

[Hugo de Naranja]

So what do you like Luke by pound out like he did to Chris Weidman that is if Luke doesn't get KO'd first then? I could see Romero giving up his back and neck before getting pounded out in mount..

I think he could get a GnP finish or UD.

[Demonata]

Did Romero miss weight?

[turbozed]

Did Romero miss weight?

Yeah 187.7 on his second attempt

[rsynweap84]

Don’t really make a difference really whoever wins likely gets the next crack at reaper...

[Richard Clock]

Pretty unbelievable that this Romero line opened at -190 on 5Dimes and is all way down to +155. For one, the opening line never made sense, as I don't see anyway the books could expect action on both sides when Yoel is so consisently underestimated. I have money in on him at +105, +110, +120, +130 for slightly above 1 unit, as I think Yoel should be favored in the matchup and was not expecting the line to continue to move. But here we are, with Yoel not making weight but not exactly killing himself to get there, while Luke looks like absolute death, may be nursing a knee injury (read something on Reddit about him wearing a knee brace?). Adding some more money on Romero at +155 is tempting.

[TPowell]

No way I'm playing that Romero fight. I'm betting Romero did try to cut in the extra 2 hours and he literally could only cut less than half a pound. That means he was more than likely dried out to start with. On the other hand, Luke looked bad as well and has talked of going to 205. Luke has always been huge for 185 so it makes sense cutting down is getting harder and harder. To top it off, no early weighins so less time to get hydrated and back to normal

[Richard Clock]

BMaker a great book.

But 5D is tough to beat for parlaying props

BookMarker good for US players? I am considering adding a 2nd book so I have the ability to arb, hedge, etc. on MMA.

I am at the point with my 5Dimes balance that I want to start withdrawing some money from my account. Feel like it is dangerous for a US player like myself to be keeping too much money in an offshore book. I apologize if I am disobeying the SBR T&C on my 2nd post, but do any US players know the easiest way to withdraw from 5D? I use BTC to deposit onto account with little problems and have withdrawn a portion of my bankroll back onto my BTC wallet, but would like to limit my BTC exposure and withdraw some ol' fashioned Franklins in the near future