UFC 221: Rockhold vs. Romero (February 10, 2018)

[Shagdogy]

I like his chin to be honest. He took some shots from Lim and was taking the center of the octagon back in seconds it seems like. Jumeau MAY have a pure power edge but I don't think he can finish Abe. My concern is Abe tends to just counterstrike and I don't think Jumeau is very high volume for the most part, but I could be wrong. Will watch some tape to confirm that.

Jumeau is very low volume and pretty much only counters. Abe does his best work countering, but he at least throws some kicks and works his left hand a little to initiate offense. He will surely be the more active fighter here unless Jumeau has done some soul searching since losing his last fight by decision.

Have you watched Abe's pre-UFC fights? He has been rocked and dropped more than a few times by some just OK fighters. I'll admit that he recovers quickly, and also that his chin looked ok vs Lim. I think Jumeau's chin might be granite though. I've never seen him rocked and he ate a square head kick in one of his fights like it was nothing.

[Shagdogy]

Feels like it could be a controversial split if it goes the distance.

Yup. I have it pretty much even with a sliiiight lean towards Jumeau by hometown judge hookup.

[TPowell]

Jumeau is very low volume and pretty much only counters. Abe does his best work countering, but he at least throws some kicks and works his left hand a little to initiate offense. He will surely be the more active fighter here unless Jumeau has done some soul searching since losing his last fight by decision.

Have you watched Abe's pre-UFC fights? He has been rocked and dropped more than a few times by some just OK fighters. I'll admit that he recovers quickly, and also that his chin looked ok vs Lim. I think Jumeau's chin might be granite though. I've never seen him rocked and he ate a square head kick in one of his fights like it was nothing.

I haven't in a while. Interesting, he looked unphased even when rocked in the Lim fight. He fights very even keel which is a good thing for somebody who takes the center so much.

[TPowell]

Anybody have any recent MMA fights from Israel? I've watched the Guillard fight but curious to see his other last few fights but haven't found them

[Shagdogy]

Anybody have any recent MMA fights from Israel? I've watched the Guillard fight but curious to see his other last few fights but haven't found them

vs. Qing in Sept 2015: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0_Z0cxPGD8

Best I could do.

[TPowell]

Thanks Shaggy. Took the time to watch Asker/Bam Bam footage since I thought he was overpriced. Asker's striking really isn't too bad but his strike defense just isn't good. I'll throw the Cannonier fight out because Cannonier could have been a real contender at 265 with his quickness and boxing IMO. In his 2 UFC wins, he was able to get the fight to the ground and use GnP to win/set up a sub. He has really good transitions and can work from the mount or the back well. Walt Harris knocked him down and finished him but it was more the vicious GnP elbows from Harris that finished him than it was the big shot that knocked Asker down. I just don't see Bam Bam as anywhere near the athlete as Cannonier or even Walt Harris. He could definitely tag Asker and finish him at any point but it is heavyweight. Watching Bam Bam go for that ridiculous throw against Coulter and end up on the bottom certainly raised my eyebrow because he definitely can't afford to do that in this fight with Asker's ground game. I won't be very big on it but I think Asker's ML at +240 is worth a stab.

[TPowell]

I just don't see a ton on this card that I like as far as straight bets go. Guess I'll take a look at my Volkanowski lean now

[Shagdogy]

Thanks Shaggy. Took the time to watch Asker/Bam Bam footage since I thought he was overpriced. Asker's striking really isn't too bad but his strike defense just isn't good. I'll throw the Cannonier fight out because Cannonier could have been a real contender at 265 with his quickness and boxing IMO. In his 2 UFC wins, he was able to get the fight to the ground and use GnP to win/set up a sub. He has really good transitions and can work from the mount or the back well. Walt Harris knocked him down and finished him but it was more the vicious GnP elbows from Harris that finished him than it was the big shot that knocked Asker down. I just don't see Bam Bam as anywhere near the athlete as Cannonier or even Walt Harris. He could definitely tag Asker and finish him at any point but it is heavyweight. Watching Bam Bam go for that ridiculous throw against Coulter and end up on the bottom certainly raised my eyebrow because he definitely can't afford to do that in this fight with Asker's ground game. I won't be very big on it but I think Asker's ML at +240 is worth a stab.

I think for his size, Tuivasa is actually really explosive and quick. His skills are just really green. He has tried that terrible throw TD against McSweeney as well and ended up on bottom. He really needs to give that up. However, in the clinch against the cage, his size advantage will be really big. I don't know that Asker can take Tuivasa down early in the fight unless Tuivasa really screws up and shows some ugly technique (which he has in the past). We'll see when the props come out. There may not be enough value but maybe hedging Tuivasa round 1 is worthwhile.

[Shagdogy]

I've watched Matthews and Jingliang and I really want to be confident in Jingliang but I'm having a hard time of it. Do I think that he can stuff Matthews's takedowns? Yeah, probably. But the problem is that Matthews is really good at hugging and pressing into the cage. Jingliang doesn't just need to stuff the takedowns. He needs to be able to create space and get himself off the cage so that he can get back to the striking. Every second he spends with Matthews leaning on him, the judges will be leaning to Matthews. And it was less than two years ago that Anton Zafir took Jingliang down with relative ease twice in the first round. Hmmmmm... I do believe that Jingliang is the more promising prospect in this fight, and he is definitely the more fun fighter to watch. I'm just not sure I think he's got much value at that line. I'm really gun shy about betting against these hometown guys recently. Boston got me.

[TPowell]

I think for his size, Tuivasa is actually really explosive and quick. His skills are just really green. He has tried that terrible throw TD against McSweeney as well and ended up on bottom. He really needs to give that up. However, in the clinch against the cage, his size advantage will be really big. I don't know that Asker can take Tuivasa down early in the fight unless Tuivasa really screws up and shows some ugly technique (which he has in the past). We'll see when the props come out. There may not be enough value but maybe hedging Tuivasa round 1 is worthwhile.

Tuivasa is definitely explosive for a HW but I feel like Harris and Cannonier are 2 of the better overall athletes in the UFC at HW as far as power and speed together. Watching Asker take the awful Dmity Smoliakov was eye opening as he is a huge HW as well (an awful one but still). Not sure what I want to do prop wise... maybe some Asker R2 with Asker ML

[turbozed]

You real confident in Abe? His chin is a little worrisome to me. I think Jumeau has a chin and power advantage, so he is the more dangerous fighter here - meaning he's the one most likely to rock/hurt the other.

However, if they kickbox for 3 rounds and neither gets rocked, dropped, etc, then I think Abe easily carries an edge on volume alone. But then you need hometown judges to get it right. Seems like a no play to me.

I think Abe has the power and chin advantage. He's also got a handspeed, distance management, footwork and volume advantage. In other words, this should be a mismatch on the feet. Since Jumeau has never looked to wrestle, I think Abe lights him up.

In Abe's fights, he's good about throwing feints and just touching with jabs before loading up on something strong. Double jab touches and then big power straight with big step in. Watch how he finishes Miura. He steps in with a feint lead low kick and then throws out a touching jab all to load up a huge overhand right. This type of stuff will be devastating to Jumeau who backs up straight, is slow, and leaves his chin in the air.

Needless to say, I like Abe a lot here. He's just undersized and we haven't seen a lot of him wrestling (he's apparently a black belt in judo and purple belt in gi bjj). I don't think the public likes young undersized Japanese dudes fighting outside their country so I'll wait until line gets closer to even to unload.

I'll just add that I think Abe is the most talented Japanese striker I've seen fight in the UFC for a long time. Maybe more raw talent and striking instincts than Horiguchi. He just needs better training (and looks like he's starting to get it because he spent a few weeks at ATT in November).

[turbozed]

I've watched Matthews and Jingliang and I really want to be confident in Jingliang but I'm having a hard time of it. Do I think that he can stuff Matthews's takedowns? Yeah, probably. But the problem is that Matthews is really good at hugging and pressing into the cage. Jingliang doesn't just need to stuff the takedowns. He needs to be able to create space and get himself off the cage so that he can get back to the striking. Every second he spends with Matthews leaning on him, the judges will be leaning to Matthews. And it was less than two years ago that Anton Zafir took Jingliang down with relative ease twice in the first round. Hmmmmm... I do believe that Jingliang is the more promising prospect in this fight, and he is definitely the more fun fighter to watch. I'm just not sure I think he's got much value at that line. I'm really gun shy about betting against these hometown guys recently. Boston got me.

Thanks for the input on this one. Always good to temper enthusiasm with the strongest opposing viewpoint and I think you nailed one of the concerns. There's a few reasons which make me more comfortable going forward despite it though:

Prior to the Zafir fight, Li just started working on Xtreme Couture to shore up his grappling. So the plus is that he recognized the issues and went about fixing it.

The only time we've seen Li against the cage against a wrestler was against Nash in the 2nd round. Nash is an NCAA Div 1 wrestler and should be worlds better than Aussie Matthews in that department. Li was able to wall walk and looked strong in the clinch against the cage. Nash is a big welterweight who has fought at middleweight. Matthews is probably a natural MW but who is still growing into that division since he's been unnaturally stunting his growth cutting massive weight to LW.

In his post fight interview with Bojan, Matthews admitted that Bojan was hard to take down in the first because he was heavy and that's why he spent so much energy and looked gassed for the rest of the fight. Well Bojan isn't very hard to take down and he's not particularly strong. I think Li will be much stronger. Watch Matthews' body language between rounds 1 and 2.

All that combined with Matthews' injury issues and him getting surgeries at 23 which people usually get when they are 50 are red flags for being confident in Matthews' ability to outgrind.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks for the input on this one. Always good to temper enthusiasm with the strongest opposing viewpoint and I think you nailed one of the concerns. There's a few reasons which make me more comfortable going forward despite it though:

Prior to the Zafir fight, Li just started working on Xtreme Couture to shore up his grappling. So the plus is that he recognized the issues and went about fixing it.

The only time we've seen Li against the cage against a wrestler was against Nash in the 2nd round. Nash is an NCAA Div 1 wrestler and should be worlds better than Aussie Matthews in that department. Li was able to wall walk and looked strong in the clinch against the cage. Nash is a big welterweight who has fought at middleweight. Matthews is probably a natural MW but who is still growing into that division since he's been unnaturally stunting his growth cutting massive weight to LW.

In his post fight interview with Bojan, Matthews admitted that Bojan was hard to take down in the first because he was heavy and that's why he spent so much energy and looked gassed for the rest of the fight. Well Bojan isn't very hard to take down and he's not particularly strong. I think Li will be much stronger. Watch Matthews' body language between rounds 1 and 2.

All that combined with Matthews' injury issues and him getting surgeries at 23 which people usually get when they are 50 are red flags for being confident in Matthews' ability to outgrind.

Not sure if I agree with this. Matthews is somewhat thick but he's only listed at 5'9". Would be (one of?) the smallest MWs on the roster at that height.

[Shagdogy]

Not sure if I agree with this. Matthews is somewhat thick but he's only listed at 5'9". Would be (one of?) the smallest MWs on the roster at that height.

Listed at 5'9" on Wikipedia but 5'11.5" on the tale of the tape for his most recent fight. These things are always inconsistent.

[Shagdogy]

I think Abe has the power and chin advantage. He's also got a handspeed, distance management, footwork and volume advantage. In other words, this should be a mismatch on the feet. Since Jumeau has never looked to wrestle, I think Abe lights him up.

In Abe's fights, he's good about throwing feints and just touching with jabs before loading up on something strong. Double jab touches and then big power straight with big step in. Watch how he finishes Miura. He steps in with a feint lead low kick and then throws out a touching jab all to load up a huge overhand right. This type of stuff will be devastating to Jumeau who backs up straight, is slow, and leaves his chin in the air.

Needless to say, I like Abe a lot here. He's just undersized and we haven't seen a lot of him wrestling (he's apparently a black belt in judo and purple belt in gi bjj). I don't think the public likes young undersized Japanese dudes fighting outside their country so I'll wait until line gets closer to even to unload.

I'll just add that I think Abe is the most talented Japanese striker I've seen fight in the UFC for a long time. Maybe more raw talent and striking instincts than Horiguchi. He just needs better training (and looks like he's starting to get it because he spent a few weeks at ATT in November).

Wow Turbo. Always interesting to read your opinions... surprised to see you this high on Abe. Don't really disagree with any of the technical analysis of yours, but I question the chin assessment. I admit Abe has recovered very quickly when he has been rocked, but I can't unsee the fact that he has been dropped and rocked multiple times, whereas I haven't seen that from Jumeau and I've seen him eat a head kick square.

Even if he doesn't get the finish, Jumeau could get a ton of credit from the judges if he manages to wobble or drop Abe even once. I think if he lands one strike hard enough to wobble Abe, that could steal the round for him even if it's the only strike he lands that whole round. I believe the judges will be looking for any reason to award rounds to the Aussies.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Listed at 5'9" on Wikipedia but 5'11.5" on the tale of the tape for his most recent fight. These things are always inconsistent.

Yeah they are ugh. I'm seeing 5'11" on UFC.com but 5'9" on the TotT for his Case fight.

[Shagdogy]

^ Left this out, but I think the Judo background for Abe could be a HUGE factor if he decides to use it. Jumeau has been susceptible to TDs in the past (albeit mostly power doubles) and can be controlled at times. If Abe is willing to mix in some grappling with his higher volume striking, that would make me like his chances much more. As much as I can see from him though, he prefers to stand and bang.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm excited to see a few Tiger Muay Thai studs on this card.

[TPowell]

Glad to see Turbo high on Abe as well. Thought it may have been my lack of sleep lately between MMA and crypto

[TPowell]

Anybody like Jeremy Kennedy? I'm just trying to figure out what Kennedy can do to win here outside of squeak out a decision against an Aussie in Australia. He isn't the better striker by any means and Volkanowski is near impossible to stop from getting you against the cage and on your back early on. The way he dominated a very strong wrestler like Hirota not long ago was impressive. He hit him with a lot of shit that could have finished others on the feet as well.

[TPowell]

Parlayed Volkanovski with Mike Perry in 2/3 weeks against Max Griffin for +118 on 5Dimes. Can't take the credit for the Perry play but Griffin just doesn't have a real path to victory against Perry. Perry is the better technical fighter for a change in this one and Griffin eats overhands like nobodies business. I'll be on Perry ITD at -130 or lower.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anybody like Jeremy Kennedy? I'm just trying to figure out what Kennedy can do to win here outside of squeak out a decision against an Aussie in Australia. He isn't the better striker by any means and Volkanowski is near impossible to stop from getting you against the cage and on your back early on. The way he dominated a very strong wrestler like Hirota not long ago was impressive. He hit him with a lot of shit that could have finished others on the feet as well.

Kennedy’s a solid fighter but I’m on Volk all the way here.

[turbozed]

Wow Turbo. Always interesting to read your opinions... surprised to see you this high on Abe. Don't really disagree with any of the technical analysis of yours, but I question the chin assessment. I admit Abe has recovered very quickly when he has been rocked, but I can't unsee the fact that he has been dropped and rocked multiple times, whereas I haven't seen that from Jumeau and I've seen him eat a head kick square.

Even if he doesn't get the finish, Jumeau could get a ton of credit from the judges if he manages to wobble or drop Abe even once. I think if he lands one strike hard enough to wobble Abe, that could steal the round for him even if it's the only strike he lands that whole round. I believe the judges will be looking for any reason to award rounds to the Aussies.

I was actually pretty high on Abe before the Lim fight. You could see flashes of brilliance from Abe despite being a very young fighter (in terms of amount of fights). Him beating Miura in just his 5th fight the way he did and win a King of Pancrase title is very impressive. But I'm more high on his natural ability and potential bu he's definitely not a developed product yet.

He gets hit a bit too much but his chin holds up pretty well. Lim hits damn hard with some solid shots and wasn't ever phased. I'm not sure Jumeau can even connect that hard. I was a bit disappointed when I saw Abe get tagged by Lim in the 2nd round so often after winning the 1st so decisively, but now watching again I think that the eye poke *really* affected him. He jumped into a pretty solid eyepoke, and was almost not willing to get back into the fight. Then Lim started spamming right hands to that side.

Jumeau does appear to have some strong defensively wrestling, stuffing a lot of of Steele's and Anzai's takedowns. But other than that and a somewhat home region advantage (Jumeau is a Kiwi, not an Aussie), I don't see anything that Jumeau does too well. His slow hands, poor striking variety, and lack of footwork makes me see it hard to see him landing anything on Abe much less something so hard as to wobble him.

Maybe I'm being too harsh on Jumeau. I bet against him +550 even against a pretty bad fighter in Anzai. So in a way I'm rolling with my previous bet on Abe and fade on Jumeau. I'm even more confident this time but I was really expecting even odds or slight + odds for Abe.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I was actually pretty high on Abe before the Lim fight. You could see flashes of brilliance from Abe despite being a very young fighter (in terms of amount of fights). Him beating Miura in just his 5th fight the way he did and win a King of Pancrase title is very impressive. But I'm more high on his natural ability and potential bu he's definitely not a developed product yet.

He gets hit a bit too much but his chin holds up pretty well. Lim hits damn hard with some solid shots and wasn't ever phased. I'm not sure Jumeau can even connect that hard. I was a bit disappointed when I saw Abe get tagged by Lim in the 2nd round so often after winning the 1st so decisively, but now watching again I think that the eye poke *really* affected him. He jumped into a pretty solid eyepoke, and was almost not willing to get back into the fight. Then Lim started spamming right hands to that side.

Jumeau does appear to have some strong defensively wrestling, stuffing a lot of of Steele's and Anzai's takedowns. But other than that and a somewhat home region advantage (Jumeau is a Kiwi, not an Aussie), I don't see anything that Jumeau does too well. His slow hands, poor striking variety, and lack of footwork makes me see it hard to see him landing anything on Abe much less something so hard as to wobble him.

Maybe I'm being too harsh on Jumeau. I bet against him +550 even against a pretty bad fighter in Anzai. So in a way I'm rolling with my previous bet on Abe and fade on Jumeau. I'm even more confident this time but I was really expecting even odds or slight + odds for Abe.

Huh?

[turbozed]

^ Left this out, but I think the Judo background for Abe could be a HUGE factor if he decides to use it. Jumeau has been susceptible to TDs in the past (albeit mostly power doubles) and can be controlled at times. If Abe is willing to mix in some grappling with his higher volume striking, that would make me like his chances much more. As much as I can see from him though, he prefers to stand and bang.

I'd like to see Abe mix in some of his judo as well, but I don't think he'll be the one to initiate any clinches. As someone who will have money on Abe, I won't mind if this stays a pure kickboxing match because I'd rather go with the devil I know then that devil I don't. As a bjj purple belt, I don't think he'd be terrible on the ground, but I think he'll have a big advantage on the feet.

[turbozed]

Huh?

Sorry +550 Decision prop

[Hugo de Naranja]

Sorry +550 Decision prop

Got it.

[turbozed]

I just don't see a ton on this card that I like as far as straight bets go. Guess I'll take a look at my Volkanowski lean now

That's next on my list. Didn't think we'd see him at reasonable odds against non top 15 talent so I'm gonna see what sort of threat Kennedy is going to be.

[TPowell]

That's next on my list. Didn't think we'd see him at reasonable odds against non top 15 talent so I'm gonna see what sort of threat Kennedy is going to be.

Takedown and grind threat from what I've saw

[turbozed]

New rules in effect for this event which might go against wall and stall/lay n pray fighters.

Also no early weigh ins and under 24 hours to rehydrate, which will hurt big weight cutters.

[TPowell]

New rules in effect for this event which might go against wall and stall/lay n pray fighters.

Also no early weigh ins and under 24 hours to rehydrate, which will hurt big weight cutters.

Volk cuts like no weight to make 145.... good news there

[Shagdogy]

New rules in effect for this event which might go against wall and stall/lay n pray fighters.

Also no early weigh ins and under 24 hours to rehydrate, which will hurt big weight cutters.

Why do the new rules go against wall and stall?

Do you think this affects the Blaydes/Hunt fight? I'm thinking Blaydes might be one of the better spots on this card. At HW he has shown no reason to doubt his chin that I can remember, and he has taken down every fighter he has faced. Even when he's not taking them down with ease, he's controlling the clinch. I believe he also has pretty good fight IQ.

[turbozed]

Why do the new rules go against wall and stall?

Do you think this affects the Blaydes/Hunt fight? I'm thinking Blaydes might be one of the better spots on this card. At HW he has shown no reason to doubt his chin that I can remember, and he has taken down every fighter he has faced. Even when he's not taking them down with ease, he's controlling the clinch. I believe he also has pretty good fight IQ.

Control is not rewarded as much as it used to be. So holding a guy against the fence isn't supposed to be worth anything unless there's a takedown or strikes. So in striker vs grappler matchups, a guy landing let's say 5 strikes gets credit for it. The grappler controlling the striker against the fence without doing anything else gets no credit. So controlling the clinch shouldn't be worth anything unless it means strikes in clinch or leads to TD/sub attempt. Of course, judges are dumbfucks so they'll of course still care a little bit about control.

Here's a good breakdown of the new scoring system:

http://fightland.vice.com/blog/understanding-the-new-unified-rules-of-mixed-martial-arts

[TPowell]

Control is not rewarded as much as it used to be. So holding a guy against the fence isn't supposed to be worth anything unless there's a takedown or strikes. So in striker vs grappler matchups, a guy landing let's say 5 strikes gets credit for it. The grappler controlling the striker against the fence without doing anything else gets no credit. So controlling the clinch shouldn't be worth anything unless it means strikes in clinch or leads to TD/sub attempt. Of course, judges are dumbfucks so they'll of course still care a little bit about control.

Here's a good breakdown of the new scoring system:

http://fightland.vice.com/blog/under...d-martial-arts

Good stuff Turbo. Will definitely read that later

[TPowell]

Why do the new rules go against wall and stall?

Do you think this affects the Blaydes/Hunt fight? I'm thinking Blaydes might be one of the better spots on this card. At HW he has shown no reason to doubt his chin that I can remember, and he has taken down every fighter he has faced. Even when he's not taking them down with ease, he's controlling the clinch. I believe he also has pretty good fight IQ.

I'd say his chin is excellent tbh. He ate everything Ngannou threw at him and was only finished because his eye was swollen shut and stopped by the doctors at the end of the 2nd round