UFC 221: Rockhold vs. Romero (February 10, 2018)

[TPowell]

Hard to lay (-290) on Tuivasa even though I think the most likely outcome is Tuivasa R1 TKO. His gas tank is terrible. Might be better to play Tuivasa R1 instead.

I agree with that. Asker is very hittable but if Tuivasa can't do it in R1..... Asker will probably find a TD and at worst make it an ugly decision.

[Hugo de Naranja]

hes knocked out
Ronny Markes
Derek Brunson
Tim Kennedy
Machida
and Chris Weidman in round 3 crazy stat

and before the UFC he tkod Michal Fijalka in IFF before the UFC
Yoel Soldier of ROUND 3 Romero

Congrats Fire! You are this week's winner!

[TPowell]

I think I may have some Romero ITD money honestly. Luke CONTINUES to be casual inside the cage and he has paid for it multiple times. I thought Weidman was winning that fight until around the 3rd round when he threw that stupid ass kick that led to his eventual demise. I don't think Romero can win a decision by any stretch though, so buyer beware.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Weidman
Kennedy
Brunson
Markes
Fijalka (before the UFC)

EDIT: Late lol. Still crazy how many R3 finishes he has

Machida too

[firekillex]

Machida too

by GNP death

[Hugo de Naranja]

by GNP death

Yeah that was some of the most savage GnP I've ever seen.

[turbozed]

I'm not sure. I think Jake has to keep getting better but it was certainly an underwhelming WW debut against Bojan. I thought he could muscle Bojan (a small WW) around pretty easily but it didn't happen. Matthews is still filling out frame wise but I doubt this short break has helped anything. I made Jingliang -150 as I think he's ONLY fought bruisers like Nash, Camacho, and Ottow who he finished before Ottow could grind much with him. Matthews by decision at +250 or so is what I'm looking for. He COULD sub Jingliang I guess but I think more likely for Matthews path to victory is him using Li's aggression against him and timing takedowns/clinching. This being in Australia could help because it would be a close fight.

I wouldn't call Nash a bruiser only. Nash is a HS state champion and wrestled NCAA Div 1 for Michigan State. In their fight, Li stuffed 2 of 3 takedowns. The third takedown Li was able to wall walk after a few seconds on the ground. And in the clinch Li looked like he was resting while Nash was grinding.

I wish we could've seen more of Li's wrestling against Ottow or Camacho (who took him down with that Judo trip that now looks more excusable after he constantly landed them in hist last fight). But it looks like that time with Follis and Xtreme Couture helped since he hasn't had a problem chilling on his back for the last few years.

I give the striking, toughness, chin, size, strength, and cardio advantage to Li. Li is also travelling around the world learning from different camps. He was at Jackson's prior to last fight, now at least spending some time at Phuket Top Team. Trained with Follis and other coaches who said he's the most coachable athlete they've seen. I expect him to get better.

On the other hand, Matthews has been training with his Dad and looks to not have learned any new skills in the past few years while his body has taken a beating with surgeries, extreme weight cuts to LW, etc.

The only thing Matthews appears to have in his favor is crowd support and no need to travel. Small point but Perth is in the same time zone as Shanghai so ironically Li will not be jetlagged but Matthews may be.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I wouldn't call Nash a bruiser only. Nash is a HS state champion and wrestled NCAA Div 1 for Michigan State. In their fight, Li stuffed 2 of 3 takedowns. The third takedown Li was able to wall walk after a few seconds on the ground. And in the clinch Li looked like he was resting while Nash was grinding.

I wish we could've seen more of Li's wrestling against Ottow or Camacho (who took him down with that Judo trip that now looks more excusable after he constantly landed them in hist last fight). But it looks like that time with Follis and Xtreme Couture helped since he hasn't had a problem chilling on his back for the last few years.

I give the striking, toughness, chin, size, strength, and cardio advantage to Li. Li is also travelling around the world learning from different camps. He was at Jackson's prior to last fight, now at least spending some time at Phuket Top Team. Trained with Follis and other coaches who said he's the most coachable athlete they've seen. I expect him to get better.

On the other hand, Matthews has been training with his Dad and looks to not have learned any new skills in the past few years while his body has taken a beating with surgeries, extreme weight cuts to LW, etc.

The only thing Matthews appears to have in his favor is crowd support and no need to travel. Small point but Perth is in the same time zone as Shanghai so ironically Li will not be jetlagged but Matthews may be.

Excellent breakdown as always Turbo. I'm with you on Jingliang.

[turbozed]

Excellent breakdown as always Turbo. I'm with you on Jingliang.

Thanks Hugo. I usually avoid betting on 2-1 favorites so I'm going to look at this one from all angles and keep an open mind. Have a unit on Li but may adjust based on new info.

I think UFC might be giving Li a favorable matchup here and expect him to beat Matthews decisively. Not to sound conspiratorial but Li is their biggest ticket into the Chinese market, and Matthews' stock has been declining sharply. I don't think it's a coincidence that they scheduled Li in a fight in Perth which has the same time zone as Shanghai/Beijing/etc. I would guess that they want Li to be fighting prime time for China.

Here's an article about Matthews' hip surgery and injury issues in early 2017: http://www.news.com.au/sport/boxing/...3dfdf71bb9a5b7

I've been trying to figure out whether or not this sort of surgery brings you back to 100%, or whether he's going to be at a permanent handicap moving forwards.

[TPowell]

I just can't lay that price on a guy that wants to get into a firefight and doesn't have the best defensive wrestling (stuffing 2/3 from Nash is average at best) or strike defense. His chin is good and he has a lot of heart but unless you think Matthews isn't UFC caliber, I don't see how laying 2 to 1 is a good idea.

[TPowell]

Thanks Hugo. I usually avoid betting on 2-1 favorites so I'm going to look at this one from all angles and keep an open mind. Have a unit on Li but may adjust based on new info.

I think UFC might be giving Li a favorable matchup here and expect him to beat Matthews decisively. Not to sound conspiratorial but Li is their biggest ticket into the Chinese market, and Matthews' stock has been declining sharply. I don't think it's a coincidence that they scheduled Li in a fight in Perth which has the same time zone as Shanghai/Beijing/etc. I would guess that they want Li to be fighting prime time for China.

Here's an article about Matthews' hip surgery and injury issues in early 2017: http://www.news.com.au/sport/boxing/...3dfdf71bb9a5b7

I've been trying to figure out whether or not this sort of surgery brings you back to 100%, or whether he's going to be at a permanent handicap moving forwards.

I would think it has to. He may not be 100% but he's better than before if it was bone on bone for a while like he mentioned in that article (I remember it from before the Bojan fight). I bet Jake against Bojan and thought he won the fight but it was a lackluster effort IMO. He looked really good in the 1st round but I think the extra muscle gassed him earlier than normal

[turbozed]

I would think it has to. He may not be 100% but he's better than before if it was bone on bone for a while like he mentioned in that article (I remember it from before the Bojan fight). I bet Jake against Bojan and thought he won the fight but it was a lackluster effort IMO. He looked really good in the 1st round but I think the extra muscle gassed him earlier than normal

In this interview he says that Bojan was heavy but not strong, and he gassed himself out in the first round trying to take him down. Li will be much stronger than Bojan IMO and probably as heavy.

In Li's last 3 or 4 fights, his counter wrestling looked at least competent enough to handle Matthews. What specifically makes you think Li has poor defensive wrestling?

Also, Li looks a bit more disciplined now striking. He got hit with a few big shots from Camacho and one from Nash in the first round, but after that he settled in and looked to be dominating with sharp and defensively sound striking (especially the 3rd round against Nash). This continued with his fight against Ottow where his counters looked sharper than ever.

I don't like laying 2-1 on any fighter so I definitely would like to see what you're seeing so I can reassess.

[Hugo de Naranja]

In this interview he says that Bojan was heavy but not strong, and he gassed himself out in the first round trying to take him down. Li will be much stronger than Bojan IMO and probably as heavy.

In Li's last 3 or 4 fights, his counter wrestling looked at least competent enough to handle Matthews. What specifically makes you think Li has poor defensive wrestling?

Also, Li looks a bit more disciplined now striking. He got hit with a few big shots from Camacho and one from Nash in the first round, but after that he settled in and looked to be dominating with sharp and defensively sound striking (especially the 3rd round against Nash). This continued with his fight against Ottow where his counters looked sharper than ever.

I don't like laying 2-1 on any fighter so I definitely would like to see what you're seeing so I can reassess.

Didn't Jingliang Knock Nash Out late in R2?

[turbozed]

Didn't Jingliang Knock Nash Out late in R2?

Lol thanks for always catching my brainfarts. I meant the 3rd round against Camacho where Li was piecing Camacho up from range and staying defensively sound.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree as well

I agree with that. Asker is very hittable but if Tuivasa can't do it in R1..... Asker will probably find a TD and at worst make it an ugly decision.

[JIBBBY]

Hugo's 100 Point Trivia Question:
Continuing with the hot topic of today's conversation, list the UFC opponents that Yoel Romero has Knocked Out in Round 3. First correct response gets 100 BetPoints from me.

All you have to do is pull a sherdog record link for Romero to get that answer.. Too easy Hugo.. Ya need to get more creative with your MMA trivia posts

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yoel-Romero-60762

[PaperTrail07]

Agree JIBBERS lol....some anti-google shit LOL...

All you have to do is pull a sherdog record link for Romero to get that answer.. Too easy Hugo.. Ya need to get more creative with your MMA trivia posts

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yoel-Romero-60762

[HurlSweatPants]

Thanks Hugo. I usually avoid betting on 2-1 favorites so I'm going to look at this one from all angles and keep an open mind. Have a unit on Li but may adjust based on new info.

I think UFC might be giving Li a favorable matchup here and expect him to beat Matthews decisively. Not to sound conspiratorial but Li is their biggest ticket into the Chinese market, and Matthews' stock has been declining sharply. I don't think it's a coincidence that they scheduled Li in a fight in Perth which has the same time zone as Shanghai/Beijing/etc. I would guess that they want Li to be fighting prime time for China.

Here's an article about Matthews' hip surgery and injury issues in early 2017: http://www.news.com.au/sport/boxing/...3dfdf71bb9a5b7

I've been trying to figure out whether or not this sort of surgery brings you back to 100%, or whether he's going to be at a permanent handicap moving forwards.

Interesting, I will be looking forward to the results of what you find.

[PaperTrail07]

Easier said that done though..... I'll give it a shot...

[MMANick]

I knew the trivia question without looking it up damn it!

[Demonata]

Beddsi has rockhold at +150. You guys can bet rockhold at + odds and then hedge him with Romero + odds at another book and guarantee profit!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

All you have to do is pull a sherdog record link for Romero to get that answer.. Too easy Hugo.. Ya need to get more creative with your MMA trivia posts

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yoel-Romero-60762

It’s more about making a point about something that people might not know right away, I.e. that Romero has finished FIVE UFC fights in R3. That said I’ll consider making them harder in the coming weeks.

[PaperTrail07]

Exactly --gives insight to a "shocking" stat.....on occasion I even double check stats and see something that blows me away...

It’s more about making a point about something that people might not know right away, I.e. that Romero has finished FIVE UFC fights in R3. That said I’ll consider making them harder in the coming weeks.

[MMANick]

If I were to bet the main event, I'd be going ITD either way. I think I favor Romero to end it inside of 2 rounds, but I'm not sure I'm betting it yet. I haven't rewatched Lukes recent fights, but I seem to remember being alarmed by the constant backward moving and that he kind of just leaves his chin out there. I also don't think he takes a punch well.

The only advantage I see Luke having in the first 2.5 rounds is SUBs.

[firekillex]

It’s more about making a point about something that people might not know right away, I.e. that Romero has finished FIVE UFC fights in R3. That said I’ll consider making them harder in the coming weeks.

its your points do what you like Hugo
anything is googable ... what you gonna look up which fighter hit 25 significant strikes in the first african amazon league fight

[Shagdogy]

I haven't fully capped Jingliang/Matthews yet but I believe I will favor Jingliang around where the number is. This is one probably worth waiting to bet though. The last minute local money could start to push the line towards Matthews. Happens often and the Aussie's love their home fighters. Matthews is very popular there.

[PaperTrail07]

LOL FIRE...atleast make someone dig deeper down the rabbit hole...

its your points do what you like Hugo
anything is googable ... what you gonna look up which fighter hit 25 significant strikes in the first african amazon league fight

[PaperTrail07]

tough fight to call IMO

I haven't fully capped Jingliang/Matthews yet but I believe I will favor Jingliang around where the number is. This is one probably worth waiting to bet though. The last minute local money could start to push the line towards Matthews. Happens often and the Aussie's love their home fighters. Matthews is very popular there.

[firekillex]

LOL FIRE...atleast make someone dig deeper down the rabbit hole...

im just playing, ya i feel what you guys are saying
its just funny because the guy after me actually got it wrong still lmaoooo

[firekillex]

surprised no talks of ben ngyuen vs formiga really going on.... darkhorse fight of the card

[Demonata]

I think I'm going to take yoel Romero. I really think this fight is a coin flip.

[TPowell]

Damn, I thought I may be able to get Abe or Quinones cheaper. Sucks. I do like Volkanowski at under -200 though

[Shagdogy]

Damn, I thought I may be able to get Abe or Quinones cheaper. Sucks. I do like Volkanowski at under -200 though

You real confident in Abe? His chin is a little worrisome to me. I think Jumeau has a chin and power advantage, so he is the more dangerous fighter here - meaning he's the one most likely to rock/hurt the other.

However, if they kickbox for 3 rounds and neither gets rocked, dropped, etc, then I think Abe easily carries an edge on volume alone. But then you need hometown judges to get it right. Seems like a no play to me.

[TPowell]

You real confident in Abe? His chin is a little worrisome to me. I think Jumeau has a chin and power advantage, so he is the more dangerous fighter here - meaning he's the one most likely to rock/hurt the other.

However, if they kickbox for 3 rounds and neither gets rocked, dropped, etc, then I think Abe easily carries an edge on volume alone. But then you need hometown judges to get it right. Seems like a no play to me.

I like his chin to be honest. He took some shots from Lim and was taking the center of the octagon back in seconds it seems like. Jumeau MAY have a pure power edge but I don't think he can finish Abe. My concern is Abe tends to just counterstrike and I don't think Jumeau is very high volume for the most part, but I could be wrong. Will watch some tape to confirm that.

[Hugo de Naranja]

You real confident in Abe? His chin is a little worrisome to me. I think Jumeau has a chin and power advantage, so he is the more dangerous fighter here - meaning he's the one most likely to rock/hurt the other.

However, if they kickbox for 3 rounds and neither gets rocked, dropped, etc, then I think Abe easily carries an edge on volume alone. But then you need hometown judges to get it right. Seems like a no play to me.

Feels like it could be a controversial split if it goes the distance.