UFC 221: Rockhold vs. Romero (February 10, 2018)

[MMANick]

Kind of cool having a card where there isn't any crazy, long odds.

[HurlSweatPants]

Man the more I watch Luke the more I get worried about his chin. I remember Branch stunning him in their last fight but Rockhold looked stationary and hittable for a large portion of that fight until it hit the mat. Not mentioning the Bisping and TRT Belfort fight. Wasn't really impressed with the CW fight either as far as defense was concerned.

The stats say Luke but the more I watch film the more I like the Gay Crusader in this fight.

[Demonata]

Am I the only one on yoel Romero?

[HurlSweatPants]

Am I the only one on yoel Romero?

I would like to see if I can get a better price before I pull the trigger, I have a feeling a lot of the public is going to be on Luke anyway so I think that line could move.

[MMANick]

Am I the only one on yoel Romero?

I would think not. If Luke thinks he can back up with his hands down and sit against the cage versus Romero, he's going to get stopped.

[TPowell]

Rockhold is super talented but I still don't know if he's learned his lesson yet defensively. Tough to call

[Hugo de Naranja]

Man the more I watch Luke the more I get worried about his chin. I remember Branch stunning him in their last fight but Rockhold looked stationary and hittable for a large portion of that fight until it hit the mat. Not mentioning the Bisping and TRT Belfort fight. Wasn't really impressed with the CW fight either as far as defense was concerned.

The stats say Luke but the more I watch film the more I like the Gay Crusader in this fight.

Romero is definitely a Knockout Artist but I’m not convinced that he has a path to victory outside of the KO. He’s not a submission threat or a consistent roundwinner.

[Shagdogy]

Definitely liking Blaydes here, and probably the over in that fight as well. I see +115 that it will go to decision. Wonder what the o/u will be? Where are these lines?

[HurlSweatPants]

Romero is definitely a Knockout Artist but I’m not convinced that he has a path to victory outside of the KO. He’s not a submission threat or a consistent roundwinner.

Definitely, the further it goes the better for Luke (I know Romero has a ton of 3rd finishes, I don't see lightning striking again). Looking at small money on GCR in the first or second and maybe live bet Luke if he makes it out of the first. This fight is similar to the Stipe fight, as long as Luke sticks to a gameplan I can see him working Romero, I am just really afraid of his chin.

[Shagdogy]

All right - anyone wanna poke holes in this logic for me?

Hunt vs. Blaydes
I feel like if you look at Mark Hunt's past three fights you see that there's a very clear and realistic path to victory for Curtis Blaydes in this fight. I'll go in order:

Hunt vs. Lesnar: IMO this fight clearly showed Mark Hunt to be a hesitant striker against someone with a high takedown threat. You could see his striking was limited. He hung out way back at range and just kept his hands cocked, waiting, but failed to really initiate any offense. He didn't throw any kicks at all to try damage the lead leg, probably for fear of having them caught. In the center he showed some solid TDD, but mostly because he wasn't really fighting, he was just waiting to defend the TD. And against the cage once Brock could chase him there, he was unable to stuff multiple TD attempts or get his back off the cage.

Hunt vs. Reem: Hunt clearly upped his striking volume compared to the Lesnar fight. No threat of a takedown. Problem for him vs. Blaydes is that TD threat is as real as ever. Even though Hunt's striking looked a bit better in this fight, he was still low volume with his hands and didn't look to counter over top of kicks all that much (an opening that would be there vs. Blaydes). Also, Hunt's increased output seemed to gas him out faster, and he was easily walked to the cage and leaned on early in the 2nd round and on.

Hunt vs. Lewis: Perfect matchup for Hunt. A one punch striker with even worse cardio. Hunt could walk forward as Lewis backed himself up to the cage and looked for moments to rest constantly. Even striking as freely as he has in recent memory, Hunt still seemed to have trouble actually hurting Lewis, and Blaydes has a solid chin and Hunt isn't getting any younger. Also, Hunt showed very few (maybe none?) counters to Lewis's kicks as well. He took advantage of Lewis when he was backing up.

So what does all of this mean? Well, Hunt will likely be stymied a bit by Blaydes's wrestling threat. He will probably not have his heavy right leg kick working very well, and he will be keeping a distance that's a bit too far for his hands. The standup exchanges will probably be a lot of Blaydes using long jab and kicks to keep Hunt at range, and Hunt plodding forward but struggling to really pull the trigger. If he couldn't hurt Brock in a fight this style, then why will he hurt Blaydes? Further, Blaydes will not back up like Derick Lewis did, making Hunt even more hesitant. Finally, as shown by both Brock and Reem, Hunt can be controlled against the cage and taken down against the cage, particularly in round 2 and later. So all of that said, there is a very solid edge for Blaydes here. Am I reading any of this wrong?

[HurlSweatPants]

All right - anyone wanna poke holes in this logic for me?

Hunt vs. Blaydes
I feel like if you look at Mark Hunt's past three fights you see that there's a very clear and realistic path to victory for Curtis Blaydes in this fight. I'll go in order:

Hunt vs. Lesnar: IMO this fight clearly showed Mark Hunt to be a hesitant striker against someone with a high takedown threat. You could see his striking was limited. He hung out way back at range and just kept his hands cocked, waiting, but failed to really initiate any offense. He didn't throw any kicks at all to try damage the lead leg, probably for fear of having them caught. In the center he showed some solid TDD, but mostly because he wasn't really fighting, he was just waiting to defend the TD. And against the cage once Brock could chase him there, he was unable to stuff multiple TD attempts or get his back off the cage.

Hunt vs. Reem: Hunt clearly upped his striking volume compared to the Lesnar fight. No threat of a takedown. Problem for him vs. Blaydes is that TD threat is as real as ever. Even though Hunt's striking looked a bit better in this fight, he was still low volume with his hands and didn't look to counter over top of kicks all that much (an opening that would be there vs. Blaydes). Also, Hunt's increased output seemed to gas him out faster, and he was easily walked to the cage and leaned on early in the 2nd round and on.

Hunt vs. Lewis: Perfect matchup for Hunt. A one punch striker with even worse cardio. Hunt could walk forward as Lewis backed himself up to the cage and looked for moments to rest constantly. Even striking as freely as he has in recent memory, Hunt still seemed to have trouble actually hurting Lewis, and Blaydes has a solid chin and Hunt isn't getting any younger. Also, Hunt showed very few (maybe none?) counters to Lewis's kicks as well. He took advantage of Lewis when he was backing up.

So what does all of this mean? Well, Hunt will likely be stymied a bit by Blaydes's wrestling threat. He will probably not have his heavy right leg kick working very well, and he will be keeping a distance that's a bit too far for his hands. The standup exchanges will probably be a lot of Blaydes using long jab and kicks to keep Hunt at range, and Hunt plodding forward but struggling to really pull the trigger. If he couldn't hurt Brock in a fight this style, then why will he hurt Blaydes? Further, Blaydes will not back up like Derick Lewis did, making Hunt even more hesitant. Finally, as shown by both Brock and Reem, Hunt can be controlled against the cage and taken down against the cage, particularly in round 2 and later. So all of that said, there is a very solid edge for Blaydes here. Am I reading any of this wrong?

That's pretty solid, IMO. Blaydes has shown to have a chin and is getting better in striking although his bread and butter is his power wrestling. Meanwhile, Hunt seems to not be as accurate and hesitant to throw combos. That said, he has nasty power so I would definitely hedge any heavy bet with Hunt either winning ITD or winning by KO. I think the logical choice is Blaydes by decision if you ask me.

[Shagdogy]

That's pretty solid, IMO. Blaydes has shown to have a chin and is getting better in striking although his bread and butter is his power wrestling. Meanwhile, Hunt seems to not be as accurate and hesitant to throw combos. That said, he has nasty power so I would definitely hedge any heavy bet with Hunt either winning ITD or winning by KO. I think the logical choice is Blaydes by decision if you ask me.

I find myself doubting Hunt can get the KO in this fight. Waiting for the line, but I will be looking at the over as well.

[UncleChael]

Hugo, who you got? Rockhold or Romero?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo, who you got? Rockhold or Romero?

Rockhold

[rsynweap84]

Am I the only one on yoel Romero?

I think not my boy, but I will be looking to hedge any Yoel bets by Rockhold in the later rounds.

Course I hope Yoel smashes him, if he can get slept by a aging short-notice Bisping, Yoel can as well!

[Shagdogy]

Pulled the trigger on Blaydes, Blaydes/Hunt o1.5, and Jingliang. I like these plays in a vacuum, but I hate to be stacking up against the home fighters.

[turbozed]

Looks some significant movement on Li and Abe fights. Action on Matthews and Abe. Was totally expecting action on both fights to go the other way.

Guess I'm adding more to Li then...

[Shagdogy]

Taking a close look at Ross Pearson right now. He actually looked a little bit improved vs. Hooker IMO, until he got KTFO of course. He has been struggling in his past few fights against bigger, longer fighters, but Hirota won't be that. Also, he was pulled from his last bout after a poor weight cut, and this card will not be having early weigh ins and/or IV rehydration. Hirota could be getting a bit old for this.

[turbozed]

Taking a close look at Ross Pearson right now. He actually looked a little bit improved vs. Hooker IMO, until he got KTFO of course. He has been struggling in his past few fights against bigger, longer fighters, but Hirota won't be that. Also, he was pulled from his last bout after a poor weight cut, and this card will not be having early weigh ins and/or IV rehydration. Hirota could be getting a bit old for this.

Same exact thoughts as you. I actually liked Pearson in that fight against Hooker but Hooker was able to time that knee against Pearson's boxing-style head movement. I don't think Hirota has the sense, speed, or length to capitalize on that so Pearson probably boxes him up. The only question is whether Hirota has the chops to ground Pearson. I'll be looking at the fight later too so let me know what you see.

[Shagdogy]

^ Just recalling Hirota will be moving up to LW. Weight cut shouldn't be such a factor, but at least Pearson finally gets to be in there with someone his size, maybe even smaller.

[turbozed]

Pulled the trigger on Blaydes, Blaydes/Hunt o1.5, and Jingliang. I like these plays in a vacuum, but I hate to be stacking up against the home fighters.

Your patience netted you a 30 pt discount on Li hehe. Congrats!

[Shagdogy]

Your patience netted you a 30 pt discount on Li hehe. Congrats!

Yeah that was weird. Didn't see that movement coming. Really it wasn't patience as I just had to wait and my book was one of last to open the line and when it did it was -155.

About Pearson - I honestly can't tell about the wrestling. Hirota looked like he could outwrestle the world against Cole Miller, but he is a tall, skinny, weaker fighter who likes the ground. Nothing like Pearson. Meanwhile Pearson was taken down and pinned to the cage by Will Brooks, but he's a much larger fighter than Hirota will be moving up to LW for this fight. I was thinking I'd be ready to pull the trigger on Pearson, but I just can't get a good picture of how I think clinch/TD exchanges will go.

[Thrilla]

MMA Pros pick Rockhold vs Romero.

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[Shagdogy]

Formiga vs Nguyen:

A lot of love going around for Ben Nguyen lately and he's earned it with some solid performances. The question is, will he avoid scrambling with Formiga? He's a very action heavy fighter and he tends to just roll with the fight wherever it may be. Against Formiga he will need to reign it in, prioritize TDD and avoiding scrambles, and keep it on the feet where he can outstrike Formiga IMO. But can we trust him to do that?

[PaperTrail07]

last few cards have been that way....and I agree....I like the surprise factor and the capping is more entertaining.....rather than HOW this -1000 wins...

Kind of cool having a card where there isn't any crazy, long odds.

[PaperTrail07]

In general formiga>nguyen...........

formiga vs nguyen:

A lot of love going around for ben nguyen lately and he's earned it with some solid performances. The question is, will he avoid scrambling with formiga? He's a very action heavy fighter and he tends to just roll with the fight wherever it may be. Against formiga he will need to reign it in, prioritize tdd and avoiding scrambles, and keep it on the feet where he can outstrike formiga imo. But can we trust him to do that?

[PaperTrail07]

That said.....it would be cool to see Nguyen do well.....

[PaperTrail07]

Right -the guy is Bi pOlar-what Luke shows...

I think not my boy, but I will be looking to hedge any Yoel bets by Rockhold in the later rounds.

Course I hope Yoel smashes him, if he can get slept by a aging short-notice Bisping, Yoel can as well!

[Hugo de Naranja]

In general formiga>nguyen...........

I disagree. Nguyen is the wayyy better striker. Formiga is certainly a better grappler but he basically only has a back take game and not much else in terms of a diversity of ground attacks.

[PaperTrail07]

I not totally disagreeing on the eye test.....but he has gone to decision with fighters like Cejudo, Borg, and also beat some good competition...While Nguyen has been on a tear, Formiga is the more polished veteran IMO....all around better....maybe not as young and hungry....but come on...

[Teem]

Formiga hasn't KO'd anyone and has been dropped by some heavy hitters. With Nguyen's striking game, Nguyen won't be afraid to exchange with him. Nguyen can crack and hasn't been submitted since 2006. I think Nguyen cracks Formiga early or picks up the decision with his strikes.

[Teem]

What do you guys think of Pedro getting a sub win here in round 1? Of course I'm thinking a KO in round 1 for him as well against Safarov.

[Hugo de Naranja]

What do you guys think of Pedro getting a sub win here in round 1? Of course I'm thinking a KO in round 1 for him as well against Safarov.

Seems reasonable. I think he’s finished all of his career wins in R1

[Shagdogy]

I'm on both sides of this Nguyen/Formiga debate. I think Ben wins on the feet pretty clearly, and while he has some slick, excellent scrambles, I don't think his ground game is tight enough to hang with Formiga. He may not get subbed but I think he ultimately gets controlled.

[PaperTrail07]

Should we maybe lean Nguyen +3.5 here boys? Formiga is not a 10-8 round winner by any means....would just need 1 round win and solid judging lol...

I'm on both sides of this Nguyen/Formiga debate. I think Ben wins on the feet pretty clearly, and while he has some slick, excellent scrambles, I don't think his ground game is tight enough to hang with Formiga. He may not get subbed but I think he ultimately gets controlled.