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This for me is probably the toughest fight on this card imo...
Been in love with Schev since her first fight with Nunes, which that was a great night for me as I had Nate and Miesha in a 2 leg ML parlay which payed out a lil' over 2200 bucks for 130 bet.
I have taken her both times since then and she has not failed. That night was also when I started taking Nunes, as well, and at 200 she was a great payout ITD. She pretty much had to be taken/hedged against Ronda, knowing that girl's inability to take punishment.
The problem now is they're improvement since then, Nunes is showing she ain't gonna be just wingin' that one power punch anymore. In the Miesha and Ronda fight, she used a lot more punches to set up them power strikes, and even the setup strikes had a nasty sting to em'. Her time at ATT is definitely paying off and she has been getting used to training against southpaws, as well as improving her ground game.
Schevchenko on the other hand has been training in Denver with Thug Rose, since before her last fight with Pena. For a training partner, especially one that can help you work on your ground game, Thug is probably one of the best to help with that. Not to mention, all that time at altitude, can't do nothing but improve that redic cardio Schev already has, making it even better. My primary concern for her is the opening rounds, even against Holly she dropped the first, albeit afterwards she had her timing down, and preceded to tear her apart on the feet for the next 4 rounds. She did armbar Pena in the first, but still was taken down by her to begin with. Niether of these seems like a good place to be against Nunes.
Seems like Nunes does have tough time when on bottom on the ground though, especially after throwing heavy for a few rounds. Both times she's been finished, have come by TKO while on bottom. I'm not quite confident about her chin either, she seems like she can be hurt, of course this means you have to be in range of her punches, and by that record she has, she doesn't allow that to happen without making someone pay severely.
I like Valentina's chances here, I think 5 rounds might just give her the time if she can make it through the early rounds, so I am betting a few props and considering some others.
Betting:
Sat 7/8 1007 Shevchenko wins by 5 round decision +436 Sat 7/8 1025 Nunes wins in round 1 +400 Thankfully, I also have Schev as a +105 dog, before the line went wonky on Nunes, still can't see how they arrived at that conclusion but okay.Sat 7/8 1027 Nunes wins in round 2 +675
Considering:
Sat 7/8 1029 Nunes wins in round 3 +1075 Sat 7/8 1037 Shevchenko wins by TKO/KO +510 Sat 7/8 1035 Shevchenko wins by submission +280 Sat 7/8 1043 Shevchenko wins by 5 round unanimous dec +610
If Nunes has been working on her cardio later round KO's might be in play. If Valentina gets all 5 to work with I am liking the UD, but her ITD options are really hard to pick. Would lean towards a TKO meslef, but sub is not impossible.Comment -
I disagree, you have to watch training and fights.I think he can get a split decision depending how the judges are. If he tags whittaker multiple times in rounds it could cancel out whittakers many shots he lands especially if romero can get a few takedowns to sway the judges. I just can never agree a fighters only chance is by knock out or sub when sciring and judges make it so interesting when it goes to decisions.Comment -
Whittaker amazing wrestler too? He will have an easier time then the weidman fight controlling him. I strongly disagree with an amazing wrestler not being good with too control. He has had an amazing wrestling career and you have to have good top control to be a good wrestler. From experience I wasn't bad in high school wrestling. Whittaker I don't believe is better from the bottom than romeros wrestling on top.Comment -
I'll probably play it something like that.. Instead of round 1 and 2 hedge I'll probably just play it with Nunes ITD..
The more info I took in on this fight the more I'm thinking Shevchenko may win this by decision. But if Nunes gasses she could stop her before the final bell..1009 Nunes wins inside distance +165
I'm still going thru this fight in my mind.. Tough call really even when hedging..Comment -
You know who else was an Olympic wrestler? Dan Henderson. Almost never used his wrestling, especially later in his career. Despite his background and credentials, Romero, like Henderson, prefers to strike.
When he does get TDs, his opponents get up, either by scrambling (Tavares fight) or having Romero let them up (Markes fight). His TDD is also not bulletproof as he got taken down by Weidman, Jacare, Brunson, Markes, and Cavalcante. Add to that Whittaker's excellent TDD and scrambling ability and I don't see Romero's wrestling playing much of a role at all.Comment -
^ thank you Hugo. Beat me to it. Demon, you gotta watch his fights. His resume says wrestler but that's it. If you bet Romero expecting a smothering ground game then you don't know either fighter in this matchup.Comment -
Also 51% of romero of romeros fights are takedowns and 49% of it is striking. For whittaker 15% takedowns and 85% is striking. Based of ufc.coms fighter tracker.Comment -
The more I think about this fight, the more I like Nunes. She has had plenty of time to train for the 5 round fight, and knows Shev well. This is like a woman versus a girl, I think Nunes could give her a serious beatdown. it still is close but I think Nunes should be the favorite.
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Whittaker will fight Romero just like he did Jacare.. Whittaker is pretty slick standing and not taken down and controlled easily.. If it stays standing which I think it will I'm liking Whittiker...
Leaning Whittaker by KO myself... Romero isn't getting any younger at age 40 either..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yoel-Romero-60762 He's fighting a solid and younger 26 year old in Whittaker that may be in his MMA prime now..
The big guy should begin to gas out late and I think that's when Whittaker lands something big and then pounds out a tired gassed out Romero..
Romero round 1 as a hedge isn't out of the question either.. Romero is probably gonna be at his best in round 1 when he's still fresh and explosive..1137 Whittaker wins by TKO/KO +153
For these +600 odds not a bad hedge to play anyways even just for insurance...
1125 Romero wins in round 1 +600 Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-03-17, 10:14 PM.Comment -
I think I'm the only one on romero lol.I just can't bet against a guy that hasn't lost in the ufc. Can knock you out at any time and any way even if gassed. Just at + money I got to take him. He's so damn strong and I keep watching the knea against weidman when he made his head explode.Comment -
I'm also on Romero, but I don't like him at even odds. I took the Rd props since there's a much bigger payout (+850 and +1150 for rd 2 and rd 3). Don't think Romero is likely to win if it goes the distance. The only problem here is if the two go balls out first round and one just drops the other. I think both fighters are too patient for that, since both respect the other's power, especially in a 5 rder.Comment -
I would Hedge with Romero KO/TKO instead. Almost all of his UFC knockouts have come in R3Comment -
One concern I've noticed is Whittaker has a tendency to duck his head down to his right when he lunges in with his jab. Without any fear of being taken down at all, Romero doesn't need to back away from this jab. He can sit down on it and counter with a left knee or left kick which could be light out if Whittaker ducks right into it. That's why this is a must hedge fight.
I think it's interesting that Romero is favored over Whittaker for the wins decision prop. Even with Whittaker favored the books think Romero is more likely of the two to win a decision? Romero decision would be my top concern if playing Whittaker hedged with Romero TKO.Comment -
i highly highly doubt yoel romero can win a 5 round decision
its either romero TKO or whittaker tko/ decision imo
I honestly think whittaker wins this 70/30 , hes going to be to fast for yoel and has a big striking advantage technically
yoel is getting old and that takes a wear on the body, yoel is a beast and super explosive he can catch anybody but ill take technique and accumlation of strikes then brute strength and one strike ko powerComment -
anybody have thoughts on werdum vs overeem or travis browne vs oleksiy oliynyk??
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Post #204. The short of it is I like Overeem. He can dictate where the fight takes place (on the feet) and has advantages in speed, power, and technique there. His chin is my only worry, but he's fighting smart, avoiding damage, and has only been KO'd by Stipe since he started fighting this patient, careful gameplan. Werdum is hardly a big KO threat for HW.Comment -
Have a couple hundred bucks on him at +120. Placed about a month ago!Comment -
I need to watch Oliynyk closer but Browne has never been submitted. He's faced Barnett and Werdum. Never even got taken down against Werdum and that was during the dark days training with best coach in history Edmond.Comment -
^ Oliynyk's quality of opponents is less than impressive and his loss to Omie stands out as a worrisome sign that he will struggle even more with Browne who has had better TDD in the octagon.Comment -
Still no betting lines for The Ultimate Fighter finale card?Comment -
Nevermind. Finally here! Michael Johnson -160, Tavares +115, Jordan Johnson -300. Thoughts?Comment -
I'm going with kenny florians picks. Nunes,overeem,romero,pettisComment -
I saw that... Maybe my Romero round 1 finish hedge at +600 idea is not a good one after all.. Romero gasses almost in every fight but still often times gets the KO's in the 3rd round.. This is a 5 round fight and I was thinking Romero is gonna go for it early and try to end it before he knows he begins to breath hard and gas out as the rounds go by..
Romero does bring that x factor, he believes he's a warrior for God.. He brings intangibles into every fight for sure.. Really can't count him out even late in fights...
Once again Hugo I believe you are right...
1141 Romero wins by TKO/KO +244 Comment -
Interesting fact about Whittaker. He has the seventh highest TDD in UFC history at 91.4%Comment -
Has Whittaker been dropped or rocked by strikes? Which fight? I thought I remembered Brunson had him hurt but after rewatching pretty sure he was fine.Comment -
Yah. Forgot about that one. Feels like it almost doesn't count, I don't know why. He took a solid head kick and knee about 5secs apart in the 3rd rd of his fight with Uriah Hall. Ate both of them. I think Hester had him rocked for a millisecond in the first rd of their fight but he recovered instantly. If Whittaker's chin holds strong then there's almost no way he loses this. Big if vs Romero but Whittaker's chin seems up to the task for a couple shots at least.Comment
