UFC 213: Nunes vs. Shevchenko (July 08, 2017)

[Shagdogy]

I'm sure he's gonna be a big fav but anyone else ready to HAMMER Curtis Blaydes??

This is my first live UFC event I'll be at and I'm PUMPED but I need some winners so I don't end up leaving T-Mobile Arena for the county jail, LOL.

Leans here are Whittaker, Reem, and Blaydes so far. Time to get serious.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm sure he's gonna be a big fav but anyone else ready to HAMMER Curtis Blaydes??

This is my first live UFC event I'll be at and I'm PUMPED but I need some winners so I don't end up leaving T-Mobile Arena for the county jail, LOL.

Leans here are Whittaker, Reem, and Blaydes so far. Time to get serious.

I'm with ya bud. Let's get these $$$

[Hugo de Naranja]

They should market the headliner for this card as "The Bullet Versus The Mullet"

[Shagdogy]

So Blaydes vs. Omie... This one seems simple to me. Blaydes has taken down every UFC opponent. He's probably taken down every opponent he's faced. He has never been KO'd. The only stoppage and loss is when Ngannou closed his eye and there's no shame in getting hit by Ngannou. The biggest weakness he has seems to be throwing leg kicks without setting them up and getting hit with long counters. Omie is not particularly a counter striker, and he's also not very long for HW. Even when Blaydes gets hit and stunned a little, he always works immediately for clinch and takedown and buys himself time.

Omie has a decent left hand and left leg, but he doesn't have notable power for HW. He's only knocked out 3 opponents in 28 fights, and only 1 at the UFC level and that was Chris De La Rocha who barely counts as UFC level. Most of his wins by submission but they're top game or back take submissions and he just simply won't get those positions on Blaydes unless something goes horribly wrong. His takedown defense has looked improved lately, but is he really ready for the takedowns of Blaydes? Seeing as nobody has stopped his takedowns, I'm not gonna bet Omie will be the first.

So if this fight goes to decision, you have to imagine Blaydes is going to win on his takedowns. Because of his wrestling he is going to dictate the ground position and Omie will not be able to threaten subs. So that leaves KO as the only path to victory for Omie. Can he be the first guy to KO Blaydes? I won't bet on it. Playing Blaydes with confidence here, just hoping the line opens somewhere half decent.

[Thor4140]

If whittaker becomes more a favorite than -140 I'm taking romero but if under that taking whittaker lol. Romero is no.bum and is super athletic and fit as hell. I don't see this fight going to decision at all one of these guys going to get knocked out.

Your wish is almost here

[Sanity Check]

Anyone think Nunes putting her fist in Shevchenko's face is an indication of Nunes being afraid of Shevchenko?

[Demonata]

Your wish is almost here

Not my wish...

[JIBBBY]

Hard to trust Blaydes but he probably is the call... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Curtis-Blaydes-172939



Oli has alot of fights and is hard to finish though. He could take this to decision..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Daniel-Omielanczuk-54303

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hard to trust Blaydes but he probably is the call... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Curtis-Blaydes-172939



Oli has alot of fights and is hard to finish though. He could take this to decision..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Daniel-Omielanczuk-54303

Why hard to trust him? I think ABB rule is in effect.

[JIBBBY]

Why hard to trust him? I think ABB rule is in effect.

LOL, true.. When in doubt always bet on Black.. ...

[Shagdogy]

Why hard to trust him? I think ABB rule is in effect.

Was wondering what's hard to trust? He's not chinny. He doesn't have a bad gas tank. He fights to his strengths and shows decent IQ. Good heart as well, fought with one eye for the entire 2nd round vs. Ngannou and was actually doing better than in the first. What's your concern?

[Shagdogy]

Hard to trust Blaydes but he probably is the call... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Curtis-Blaydes-172939



Oli has alot of fights and is hard to finish though. He could take this to decision..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Daniel-Omielanczuk-54303

Also Jibbs, if this fight goes the distance you think that's bad for Blaydes? He's by far the better wrestler.

[Shagdogy]

Getting so antsy to see some LINES for the TUF card and 213! Cmon!

[JIBBBY]

Also Jibbs, if this fight goes the distance you think that's bad for Blaydes? He's by far the better wrestler.

He hasn't fought anyone really good other then the guy black beast he lost too.. Not a ton of experience like Omi.. Just thinking outside chance Omi might win by sub since he does get most of his wins by submission.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Daniel-Omielanczuk-54303



I think Blaydes is the call though.. I agree with everything you are saying Shag..

[Shagdogy]

He hasn't fought anyone really good other then the guy black beast he lost too.. Not a ton of experience like Oli.. Just thinking outside chance Omi might win by sub since he does get most of his wins by submission.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Daniel-Omielanczuk-54303



I think Blaydes is the call though.. I agree with everything you are saying Shag..

Yup! A lot of subs... but how many against UFC competition? Zero. Also, you can throw away all those subs that he got from top position since he's not getting on top of Blaydes. That's 7 of his 9 subs. He's gonna have to rock Blaydes to sub him.

[JIBBBY]

Yup! A lot of subs... but how many against UFC competition? Zero. Also, you can throw away all those subs that he got from top position since he's not getting on top of Blaydes. That's 7 of his 9 subs. He's gonna have to rock Blaydes to sub him.

Well let's see where the line comes in with this fight?.. I'm in on Blaydes... I reads ya Shag!!

[Shagdogy]

Aaaaaaaand Blaydes opens -505. Ugh.

[firekillex]

thiago santos -130 hmmm i like these odds

gerald meerschaert has 19 out of 26 submission wins but 8 losses out of 9 came by submission , never really seen anything like that i think santos will pick him apart standing , that spicely loss was a fluke imo still, and i think santos is a solid top 15 talent , he should beat this new comer all day -130 all day

[Hugo de Naranja]

thiago santos -130 hmmm i like these odds

gerald meerschaert has 19 out of 26 submission wins but 8 losses out of 9 came by submission , never really seen anything like that i think santos will pick him apart standing , that spicely loss was a fluke imo still, and i think santos is a solid top 15 talent , he should beat this new comer all day -130 all day

Santos actually opened at (+150) but got insta-bet.

https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/11903-full-ufc-213-opening-betting-odds

[firekillex]

Santos actually opened at (+150) but got insta-bet.

https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/1190...g-betting-odds

wow... wouldve went huge on +150 no clue how they got that price.... people really down playing his skills after that tough spicely loss, im not sure if its just me but i think hes super talented his mind just has to be there and hes a beast... the guy hes fighting basically is submission or nothing and Santos is huge for 85, keep him at distance with strikes and finish him

mein +125 im not sure right now could be a good dog though , ive seen him quit so many times in the cage but this guy has so many offensive skills.. fight not going to decision could be a solid bet here

[Shagdogy]

Meerschaert never been KO'd in a LOT of fights. If he gets Santos on by mat he will dominate. It's all about dictating where this fight takes place. Meerschaert's standup is pretty terrible looking, but I guess he has a chin. Not that he really wants to test it against Santos too often. I just really don't like Santos's TDD and ground game at all.

[Shagdogy]

thiago santos -130 hmmm i like these odds

gerald meerschaert has 19 out of 26 submission wins but 8 losses out of 9 came by submission , never really seen anything like that i think santos will pick him apart standing , that spicely loss was a fluke imo still, and i think santos is a solid top 15 talent , he should beat this new comer all day -130 all day

Why was Spicely loss a fluke? Santos knew he had to defend the takedown and Spicely got the fight on the mat twice, including a pretty weak double leg that Santos should've been able to defend but he got caught upright and Spicely was able to trip and finish it. On the mat he owned Santos. Why is that flukey? Santos wasn't able to stop his best weapon. Similar matchup here.

[firekillex]

because sometimes people have off nights in mma, spicely is a very low level ufc fighter imo where santos is top 15-20 talent
if they fought 10 times i think santos wins 8-9 times thats my opinion , hes just better then spicley and had a bad night
he got stuck in a bad position if they rematched i think santos would starch him and ko him in 1 round but thats me

[turbozed]

Miller is a 2:1 dog. I think that's worth a bet.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Miller is a 2:1 dog. I think that's worth a bet.

I agree. Favorable style matchup against an overrated Pettis

[turbozed]

Romero in Rd 2, 3, and 4 at +850, +1150, and +1650 worth a look too.

[Shagdogy]

Where's the TUF finale lines!?

[firekillex]

Miller is a 2:1 dog. I think that's worth a bet.

i think pettis wins here but its definitely solid value at 2:1 for a game miller, should be a close fight whoever wins imo

[Shagdogy]

Overeem is going to come into this fight ready and willing to go the distance vs. Werdum. He has been very calculated in his fights over the past year or two and it has paid off for him. If he comes in with a game plan to keep distance, keep the fight on the feet, and pick Werdum apart without headhunting for the KO, I don't see why he won't be successful at winning on the cards, and possibly stopping Werdum.

Werdum's striking is sloppy and not particularly powerful. He only landed as much as he did on Cain because Cain was willing to stand right in front of him. Overeem won't do that. Werdum's takedowns are even worse. Against guys like Brown and Stipe who can move, he simply could not take the fight down. He barely even tried. His shots were lazy, not set up, and super far away. Werdum seems to rely on two things: his chin and his pressure. Problem is, this is a terrible strategy against possibly the best heavyweight kickboxer in the history of the UFC.

This fight takes place on the feet. Overeem moves and runs and fights very patient, lands a very high percentage of his strikes, and takes a decision or possibly stops Werdum. Overeem's chin is always a worry, but he took punches from Hunt, Arlovski, and Dos Santos. Only Stipe put Overeem away, and he did the same to Werdum. Against Hunt, Overeem showed excellent composure when he got rocked, and tied up Hunt immediately and then pushed to space when he was ready. Overeem has been fighting very very smart lately, whereas Werdum fights like a caveman.

[JIBBBY]

Aaaaaaaand Blaydes opens -505. Ugh.

-700 on Dimes.. Lol.. That line is nuts..

Depending on the prop odds I'll probably go Blaydes by decision hedged with Omi by sub probably.... Straight play is untouchable even in a parlay..

UFC 213 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 7/8		1201 Daniel Omielanczuk		+500	o1½ -160
11:00PM		1202 Curtis Blaydes		-700	u1½ +140

[Demonata]

-700 on Dimes.. Lol.. That line is nuts..

Depending on the prop odds I'll probably go Blaydes by decision hedged with Omi by sub probably.... Straight play is untouchable even in a parlay..

UFC 213 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 7/8		1201 Daniel Omielanczuk		+500	o1½ -160
11:00PM		1202 Curtis Blaydes		-700	u1½ +140

I renember bellator couple weeks ago took Michael chandler with mitrione parlay and chandler broke his foot. Wont do that again lol

[Shagdogy]

-700 on Dimes.. Lol.. That line is nuts..

Depending on the prop odds I'll probably go Blaydes by decision hedged with Omi by sub probably.... Straight play is untouchable even in a parlay..

UFC 213 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 7/8		1201 Daniel Omielanczuk		+500	o1½ -160
11:00PM		1202 Curtis Blaydes		-700	u1½ +140

Might be better off playing Blaydes by decision and Blaydes TKO if they get you anywhere -400 or under on your total. He's not losing.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Shev, like Max Holloway, has a style that is really well suited to 5 rounds. If she can win this fight, I see her as a long-reigning champ at 135.

[Demonata]

Been watching romeros training and I just got to go with him. He's so damn strong and an amazing wrestler with so many olympic gold medals. Also some of his training I watched he gets a group of wrestlers and just keeps throwing them over his shoulder like they are light as feathers. I see romero knocking out whittaker or winning a split decision. Cant bet against him, he has ao much confidence and even when he's gassed he is deadly. I can see him taking whittaker down too. Yoel romero for the win.

[Shagdogy]

^ disagree. Don't watch his training. Watch his fights. He catches lightning in a bottle every time he wins. Never seen a guy on a win streak like his that loses so many rounds. If he doesn't KO Whittaker, he loses. And Whittaker is preparing for exactly that.

Seems like the way to play this is Whittaker hedged Romero TKO/KO. Does anyone realistically see any other outcome??