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JIBBBY I think Nash is terrible...will GAsComment -
Yep Nate will be smart and pull the play book from the Elais fight.. Just keep distance and try and pepper and out point Alvey for 3 rounds..
I think even Nate knows he's not gonna out slug Alvey in the pocket.. Crowd won't like it and either will Dana White but it would be a way for Nate to get a Win and further secure his job with Zuffa...
I'm gonna play Nate straight and by decision myself..Comment -
Ya think Paper? Can't argue your MMA logic, Nash has only fought bums in small venues.. This is his first fight in the UFC also..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bobby-Nash-75423
Nash seems hard to finish though so if it goes to the cards it could get interesting.. Jing only wins decisions about half the time thru out his career.. I do think fading Nash is the call though..
No Asian fade in this scrap for Jibs...Comment -
MMA MANIA parts 1 and 2
Prelims - Short reads and predictions..
185 lbs.: Alessio Di Chirico vs. Eric Spicely
The first Italian to step foot in the Octagon since Alessio Sakara’s exit, Alessio Di Chirico (10-1) saw his unbeaten record slip away against Bojan Velickovic in his Octagon debut. Undaunted, he returned to the cage in Aug. 2016 to take a split decision over Garreth McLellan.
At 6’0," he is two inches shorter than Eric Spicely (9-1).
Team Claudia Gadelha’s second Light Heavyweight pick on TUF 23, Spicely reached the semifinals before running afoul of teammate and eventual winner, Andrew Sanchez. He fell to a Sam Alvey guillotine in his promotional debut, but managed to submit Thiago Santos at a 4.5:1 underdog.
He owns five wins via submission and two via technical knockout.
Both fighters defied my expectations in their last fights, though in decidedly different ways. I expected Di Chirico to dominate McLellan and Spicely to get knocked silly by Santos. After those performances, I’ve got Spicely. Whatever issues Spicely has, he’s a damn good grappler and Di Chirico wound up on his back far too often against "Soldier Boy." Unless Di Chirico can lay hands on him early, expect TUF vet to earn another early finish.
Prediction: Spicely via first-round submission
205 lbs.: Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Jeremy Kimball
After falling short in Strikeforce and on TUF: "Brazil," Marcos Rogerio de Lima (14-4-1) joined UFC proper in 2014 and has gone 3-2 with three first-round finishes. Most recently, "Pezao" took on top Russian prospect Gadzhimurad Antigulov and tapped to a guillotine 67 seconds in.
At 6’2", he is three inches taller than Jeremy Kimball (14-5).
Kimball split his two Bellator bouts, knocking out Keith Berry before tapping to a Perry Filkins guillotine. After falling to Chris Camozzi, he rattled off four consecutive wins, including a knockout of Maro Perak for a regional title.
He replaces the injured John Phillips on a week’s notice.
I’ve given up hope that "Pezao" will ever have the defensive grappling to challenge the division elite, but he ought to win big here. Kimball is not a Light Heavyweight -- he weighed in at 201.8 pounds in June 2016 and carries a lot of unnecessary fat. Further, he seems to be undisciplined, missing weight by four pounds in Jan. 2016 while looking extremely soft. He still moves well, but not well enough to overcome this kind of size and strength discrepancy.
"Pezao’s" monster power carries him to a first-round victory.
Prediction: Rogerio de Lima via first-round technical knockout
125 lbs.: Eric Shelton vs. Alexandre Pantoja
Ranked No. 15 and carrying the Caged Aggression Flyweight title, Eric Shelton (10-2) upset Yoni Sherbatov and Ronaldo Cadido on his way to TUF 24's semifinals. There, he faced Tim Elliott and lost a controversial decision to the eventual tournament winner.
Six of his 10 wins have come by submission.
With a nine-fight win streak, including a submission over castmate Damacio Page, Alexandre Pantoja (16-2) earned the No. 1 rank and became TUF 24 coach Henry Cejudo’s first pick. His grappling carried him all the way to the semis, where he fell to the show's No. 5-ranked Hiromasa Ogikubo by decision.
He owns six wins apiece by knockout and submission.
Both fighters looked great on the show, but looking outside reveals a massive discrepancy in high-level experience. Pantoja is far more proven on the world stage, taking on men who -- at least at the time -- were among the best outside UFC. He’s also fighting out of the stronger camp in Nova Uniao and, at least based on what I’ve seen, should have at least a slight edge wherever the fight goes.
Shelton has an extremely high ceiling and Pantoja’s struggles with Ogikubo’s top control have me concerned, but the Brazilian just seems like the stronger overall fighter at this point. Effectvie kicks and well-timed takedowns carry him to victory.
Prediction: Pantoja via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Jason Gonzalez vs. J.C. Cottrell
Jason Gonzalez (10-3) joined Team Urijah Faber on TUF 22, knocking out Tim Welch in the elimination round before dropping a decision to Abner Lloveras. After a win outside UFC, he made his promotional debut on short notice at UFC 203, suffering a first-round knockout at the hands of Drew Dober.
He owns six wins by submission and four by knockout.
J.C. Cottrell (17-4) brought a six-fight win streak into his own Octagon debut, which pitted him against experienced grinder Michel Prazeres. "Superstar" struggled with his foe’s wrestling and ultimately lost for just the second time since 2010.
He will give up five inches of height to the 6’2" Gonzalez.
The stylistic match up seems to favor Cottrell in this bout. In addition to having experience going 15 minutes, his wrestling is generally effective when not fighting tanks like Prazeres. Gonzalez’s takedown defense is generally underwhelming and I’m not convinced he can maintain his customary pace in a grinding battle. The jury’s out on Cottrell’s ceiling, but it looks quite a bit higher than Gonzalez’s. Regular takedowns earn him the decision.
Prediction: Cottrell via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Sam Alvey vs. Nate Marquardt
Sam Alvey (29-8) -- whose three consecutive first-round knockouts left him poised for a crack at the division elites -- hit a stumbling block with losses to Derek Brunson and Elias Theodorou. He has since rebounded with another three wins, including a decision over fellow slugger Alex Nicholson in Nov. 2016.
Eighteen of his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) wins, including eight of his last 11, have come by knockout.
With six losses in his previous eight fights, including four by knockout, Nate Marquardt (35-16-2) entered his Oct. 2016 battle with Tamdan McCrory as the underdog. The nearly 18-year veteran managed to briefly turn back the clock with an impressive head kick knockout that earned him his third UFC post-fight bonus.
"Nate the Great" is two inches shorter than the 6’2" Alvey.
Alvey may have technical holes you could drive a truck through, but ferocious power and a chin that could shrug off said truck may be all he needs against the current Marquardt. "The Great" simply can’t withstand the sort of punishment his aggressive style demands he take anymore. I expect Marquardt to look great early, bouncing a wide array of strikes off Alvey’s iron dome. Eventually, though, Alvey’s going to land the one punch he needs to turn things all the way around.
Prediction: Alvey via first-round knockout
135 lbs.: Raphael Assuncao vs. Aljamain Sterling
From 2011 to 2014, Raphael Assuncao (23-5) put together a seven-fight win streak that put him on the verge of a title shot. A slew of injuries led to a 21-month layoff, after which he lost a decision to former foe T.J. Dillashaw at UFC 200.
He owns 10 wins by submission and another three by knockout.
Submissions of Takeya Mizugaki and Johnny Eduardo -- the former of which earned him "Performance of the Night" -- put Aljamain Sterling (12-1) in the division’s Top 5. He couldn’t quite complete the run, suffering an upset decision loss to Bryan Caraway in May 2016.
"The Funkmaster" stands an inch taller than Assuncao and has submitted six professional opponents.
My biggest takeaway from Sterling’s loss to Caraway was how ineffective and awkward "The Funkmaster" was on the feet. When the takedown wasn’t there, he looked like he barely knew what a punch was. Unfortunately for him, the takedown likely won’t be there against Assuncao, who easily outwrestled Caraway and held his own in the grappling with Dillashaw. The style match up is just all wrong for Sterling, who is sorely outgunned on the feet and at least matched on the mat. Assuncao chews him up on the feet for a dominant decision win.
Prediction: Assuncao via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Jingliang Li vs. Bobby Nash
China’s Jingliang Li (11-4) has alternated wins and losses in UFC since joining in 2014 with a decision over David Michaud. "Leech" last fought in Sept. 2015, earning a first-round knockout of Anton Zafir, and was subsequently flagged and exonerated by United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA).
He owns four wins via guillotine.
Since losing a decision in his third professional fight, Bobby Nash (8-1) has stopped all but one opponent, all within two rounds. Most recently, he flattened World Series of Fighting (WSOF) and UFC veteran Lewis Gonzalez to earn a "Knockout of the Night" bonus.
He replaces the injured Yancy Medeiros on short notice.
Nash looks like a pretty solid prospect from what I’ve seen -- he’s got sharp, powerful hands with some deceptive speed behind them. He has, however, had mixed success stopping takedowns, which is a serious red flag against a powerhouse like Li. If Nash can’t get the early finish, things are going to shift rapidly out of his favor. Li’s punching power and sheer strength can drain a man, especially one with less than a month to prepare. Li uses steady takedowns and ground-and-pound to take an increasingly dominant decision.
Prediction: Li via unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Luis Henrique da Silva vs. Jordan Johnson
The grit of Luis Henrique da Silva (12-1) carried him to victory in his first two UFC appearances, which saw him come back from knockdowns to pound out Jonathan Wilson and submit Joachim Christensen. In his fourth fight of 2016, "Frankenstein" took on Scottish prospect Paul Craig and fell victim to "The Bearjew’s" submission prowess early in the second.
Eleven of his 12 wins have come by form of knockout.
Jordan Johnson (6-0) thrashed his first four opponents with ease, stopping all of them inside the first round and three of them within 62 seconds. He then proved his cardio with a third-round submission of Shaun Asher and five-round decision over Lemarcus Tucker, the latter of which earned him the RFA Light Heavyweight title.
"Big Swingin’" Johnson (yes, really) is three inches shorter than the 6’1" Henrique.
Despite the nickname that so tickled Mike Schiavello, Johnson is primarily a grappler, using a bevy of solid trips to compensate for wooden striking. da Silva’s issues with Paul Craig have me a bit concerned, but the experience gap and the Brazilian’s striking edge have me leaning in his favor.
Johnson’s head doesn’t move when he punches and he lacks the acumen to blend his takedown attempts with his striking. Assuming he shows the grappling prowess he did against Christensen, expect Silva to sprawl-and-brawl his way to an early finish.
Prediction: Henrique da Silva via first-round technical knockoutComment -
Good Write up this time IMO...Comment -
Kind of surprised on the line movement for Sterling's Scorecards = No Action prop. Opened (+131) now up to (+260).Comment -
I got to hand it to you guys that jump on early lines when you see value.. I'm always late to the show as I take my time to fully cap the fights to know and understand what exactly I'm betting on...
I can't tell you how many times I lost massive value on line movement waiting til after weigh ins.. I made a decision a year ago that I'd rather lose line value and win the bet then get huge value early on and lose the bet..
I guess I don't know and trust the fighters as much as some of you guys early on when the lines first hit the board in alot of these prelim fights..Comment -
Bobby Nash had about a month to prepare for this fight.
Jeremy Kimball took his fight on a week's notice.
Both guys might be underrated, not sure on that.Comment -
Cerrone will humble Masvidal.
He's more powerful and smarter.
I know this has nothing to do with what happens in the ring,
but seriously, what is wrong with this guy?
Cerrone in his home town. I love this bet.Comment -
Big play on Shev for me at -125 and I have a Caceres by decision (+250) ticket as well. Nothing else so far but majority of my plays are right after weigh ins/day of fightsComment -
I liked Alessio De Chirico for some reason when he debuted but I had him in multiple parlays and he BARELY squeaked out a decision against easily one of the worst guys on the UFC roster, Gareth McClellan. He's one of those movement style strikers but he doesn't have any pop in his hands IMO and gets taken down too easily. I think his cardio is questionable as well. If Spicely gets him down early, this fight is over. I think he could easily gas out just being on bottom and trying to scramble back up. I'm thinking maybe Spicely NO CARDS (-185).Comment -
she'll gas about mid-way through round 2 and I'm still not sure she gets Shev on the ground and holds her there that well. Shev has a decent ground game herself. This is Rousey/Nunes except Pena is tougher and Shev doesn't have the power that Nunes has on the feet but is even more technicalComment -
Da Silva wins in Round 1 (+525) for a little bit as well. Don't think he wins this fight but he's better than Johnson everywhere outside of the wrestling more than likely. Da Silva SHOULD try and swarm him early because there is no way he'll have the cardio to make it 3 rounds at altitude when he didn't even get out there early to adjust to it. I may add something on Johnson as well to use this as a hedge but who knows. Da Silva is certainly the better fighter in this one and with his power, he's a threat in round one. 5 to 1 is a good shotComment -
IMO, there is no way Sterling is the better fighter than Rafael but Rafael is 34 and a bantamweight. He looked pretty decent against TJ at UFC 200 though. He defended takedowns very well but lost all 3 rounds. My only worry is that now he's kind of given up on the fact that he'll ever get to the top of the mountain which could lead to him falling off the cliff at his age in this division. Outside of that, this is all AssuncaoComment -
Betting Tip 2: Nate Marquardt to beat Sam Alvey
Sam Alvey has proven throughout his career that he has KO power, but he has also shown that he is slow, one dimensional and easy to gameplan for. Nate Marquardt is extremely skilled in every single aspect of MMA and has the experience required to avoid Alvey’s power left hand and win this fight easily.
Of course it’s possible that Alvey could win this fight by KO, but Marquardt wins 9 times out of 10 if Alvey fails to get it done inside the distance. Sam Alvey has a puncher’s chance of beating Nate Marquardt and that’s about it.
Reasons for placing this bet...
- Nate Marquardt is from Denver which means that he will have home advantage on his side. Judges in Denver are notoriously biased towards home town fighters, which gives Nate a significant advantage in this fight.
- Nate Marquardt lives and trains in Denver, so he’ll be used to the high altitude.
- Nate Marquardt is significantly better than Sam Alvey in every single aspect of MMA.
- Nate Marquardt has excellent distance control. Alvey is very one dimensional and telegraphs his attacks. Marquardt does a great job of staying out of his opponent’s range. He should be able to avoid Alvey’s powerful left hand.
- Sam Alvey is very slow, very one dimensional and very easy to gameplan for. Marquardt just has to avoid the power left hand and he’ll win this fight easily.
- Nate Marquardt has excellent reactive takedowns, strong wrestling and he’s very heavy from top position. Alvey has poor takedown defence, weak wrestling and a low level ground game. He also plods forward flat footed, which should make it easy for Marquardt to hit reactive takedowns. Marquardt can win this fight easily if he uses his wrestling to take Alvey down and control him on the ground.
- Sam Alvey is not the same fighter since he broke his jaw. He now struggles to let his hands go and he’s a lot more tentative than he used to be.
- This fight is taking place at altitude, which means that Sam Alvey will become significantly less dangerous as the minutes tick by.
- Alvey struggles to wear a mouth guard. This leaves him wide open to being KO’d by Marquardt’s heavy hands.
- Alvey has fallen in love with the knockout and spends too much time head hunting. This makes him predictable and very easy to outpoint.
Risk Factors...
- Sam Alvey has KO power in his left hand.
- Nate Marquardt is now 37 years old and in the tail end of his career.
NOTE: An interesting write-up from MMA Betting Tips, they're also taking Schevchenko and Assuncao, so far.Comment - Nate Marquardt is from Denver which means that he will have home advantage on his side. Judges in Denver are notoriously biased towards home town fighters, which gives Nate a significant advantage in this fight.
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Nate has to fight smart. Nate by decision and hedge with Sam by KO imo are the only 2 bets to make in this fight.
Pena scares me cause she's super tough and comes forward. Yes Shevchenko is the more polished striker but will it be enough to keep Pena off her for 5 rounds?
Lastly I think draws are going to be a lot more frequent since the scoring rules have become more liberal. i think now is the time to get in on betting draws as hedges since they are still paying 50 to 1 and up. The draw lines will tighten up imo. They already have.
Hugo you like long shot props? Put $10 on the Pena/Shevchenko draw for $500.Comment -
Both guys will circle like sharks.....avoid the big shots and tie up in a grapple fest IMO....Reason I lean Alvey:
Decent TDD
Very Selective With his shots..(MQ takedown will have to be precise)
Does not kick often...
I like Alvey and the Over....Nate the Great comes out and shocks everyone in under 1.5 rounds....take my $....Comment -
Bobby Nash's last fight outside the UFC.
Bobby Nash 2 fights before his last fight.
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I've seen a few people saying his takedown defense isn't good enough to fight Spicely, but I'm not convinced. I don't think he was really worried about defending takedowns at all vs. Mclellan and going back through his fights there's just not much to see about his TDD one way or the other. However, I think the altitude actually helps De Chirico because he moves much easier on the feet and Spicely tends to get desperate and chase takedowns if they don't come easy to him. Between Spicely's soft chin and desperation for takedowns, I don't really see any reason to bet him. Granted, if he comes in and gets the early takedown he is a BEAST on the mat. If he doesn't get it early though, I think Di Chirico could end up being the better conditioned guy, and I definitely think he's the mentally tougher of the two. I'll prob be laying off this fight.Comment -
Guys, why is De Lima only -175?? Jeremy Kimball is going to be WAY undersized in this fight and is coming in on a week's notice. This is fishy as hell IMO. Anyone else think this is absurd value? The only chance Kimball has in this fight is to survive some serious time underneath De Lima and hope that he gasses. That's a scary place to be. I think De Lima finishes him.Comment -
Thanks for posting the Nash tape Sanity.Comment
