UFC on FOX 23: Shevchenko vs. Pena (January 28, 2017)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 23: Shevchenko vs. Pena Picks:
J.C. Cottrell Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Alexandre Pantoja Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Marcos Rogerio De Lima Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Alessio Di Chirico Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Luis Henrique Da Silva Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Li Jingliang Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Raphael Assuncao Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Sam Alvey Round 1 KO (Punch)
Jason Knight Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Francis Ngannou Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Donald Cerrone Round 3 TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Valentina Shevchenko Unanimous Decision (49-46, 48-47 x2)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 23: Shevchenko vs. Pena Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Francis Ngannou ($9,600)
J.C. Cottrell ($8,700)
Jason Knight ($8,500)
Li Jingliang ($8,100)
Julianna Pena ($7,800)
Jorge Masvidal ($7,300)

Risk: 1u

UFC on Fox 23: Shevchenko vs. Pena Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Sam Alvey ($9,000)
Donald Cerrone ($8,900)
J.C. Cottrell ($8,700)
Jordan Johnson ($8,600)
Li Jingliang ($8,100)
Andrei Arlovski ($6,600)

Risk: .2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 23: Shevchenko vs. Pena

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Gonzalez vs. Cottrell
No Bet

Fight #2: Pantoja (DEBUT) vs. Shelton (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #3: Rogerio de Lima vs. Kimball (DEBUT)
Rogerio de Lima+Kimball Under 1.5 (-140) 2.8u to win 2u
Rogerio de Lima/Kimball Draw (+8000) .2u

Fight #4: Spicely vs. Di Chirico
No Bet

Fight #5: Da Silva vs. Johnson (DEBUT)
Henrique Da Silva (+185) 2u
Henrique Da Silva KO/TKO (+465) .5u

Fight #6: Jingliang vs. Nash (DEBUT)
Jingliang (-140) 4.2u to win 3u
Jingliang+Nash Under 2.5 (-110) 2.2u to win 2u

Hedge:
Nash Submission (+1440) .5u

Fight #7: Assuncao vs. Sterling
Assuncao (-125) 3.75u to win 3u
Assuncao Decision (+157) 1u
Assuncao -3.5 (+185) .5u

Hedge(s):
Sterling Scorecards = No Action (+131) 2u
Sterling Scorecards = No Action (+260) .5u
Sterling Submission (+1035) .25u

Fight #8: Alvey vs. Marquardt
Alvey ITD (+100) 3u
Alvey KO/TKO (+135) 1u
Alvey Round 1 (+300) .5u
Alvey Decision (+539) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #9: Knight vs. Caceres
Knight Scorecards = No Action (-145) 4.35u to win 3u
Knight Decision (+178) 1u
Knight Submission (+655) .5u

Hedge:
Caceres Round 3 (+1750) .25u

Fight #10: Ngannou vs. Arlovski
Ngannou Round 2 (+465) .5u
Ngannou Submission (+725) .5u
Ngannou Round 3 (+1100) .25u

Hedge:
Arlovski Round 1 (+825) .5u

Fight #11: Cerrone vs. Masvidal
Cerrone (-115) 7.475u to win 6.5u
Cerrone Round 2 (+750) 1u
Cerrone Round 3 (+1400) 1u
Cerrone/Masvidal Draw (+5500) .2u

Hedge(s):
Masvidal KO/TKO (+855) 2u
Masvidal Round 1 (+1025) .5u

Fight #12: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Shevchenko (+100) 2.5u
Shevchenko Unanimous Decision (+315) .5u
Shevchenko Round 4 (+1650) .25u
Shevchenko Round 5 (+2450) .25u
Shevchenko/Pena Draw (+5000) .2u

Hedge(s):
Pena Submission (+500) .5u
Pena KO/TKO (+825) .5u
Pena Round 1 (+1050) .25u
Pena Round 2 (+1300) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Caceres+Knight Over 2.5/Ngannou+Arlovski Under 1.5 (+123) 1u
Rogerio de Lima U1.5/Ngannou U1.5/Cerrone U2.5 (+626) .5u

Prop Parlays:
Alvey+Marquardt Won’t Go Distance/Ngannou ITD (-109) 2.18u to win 2u
Jingliang/Ngannou ITD (+123) 1u
Rogerio de Lima+Kimball Won’t Start Round 2/Jingliang (+188) 1u
Cottrell/Shelton/Rogerio de Lima U1.5 (+468) .5u
Sterling SNA/Alvey SNA/Knight SNA/Cerrone SNA (+716) 2u
Cottrell+Gonzalez WGD/Pantoja Decision/Rogerio De Lima Won’t Start R2 (+1005) .25u
Johnson Decision/Caceres Decision (+1012) .5u
Knight Decision/Pena Decision (+1221) .25u
De Lima Round 1/Jingliang Round 1 (+1238) .25u
Marquardt Decision/Masvidal Decision (+1277) 1u
Masvidal Decision/Shevchenko Unanimous Decision (+1311) .25u
Ngannou+Arlovski Under 1.5/Cerrone ITD/Shevchenko Decision (+1468) .25u
Assuncao -3.5/Alvey ITD/Knight Decision (+1738) .25u
Jingliang KO/Alvey KO/Ngannou KO (+1751) .25u
Pantoja Submission/Johnson Submission (+1931) .25u
Di Chirico Decision/Johnson+Da Silva WGD/Jingliang Decision (+1935) .25u
Alvey KO/Masvidal KO (+2144) .25u
Masvidal Decision/Pena Decision (+2174) .5u
Arlovski ITD/Pena ITD (+2585) .25u
Alvey Round 2/Ngannou Round 2 (+3350) .1u
Assuncao Decision/Knight Decision/Cerrone Decision/Shevchenko Decision (+4574) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+242) 1.75u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+621) .5u
Knight/Caceres FOTN (+750) 1.5u
Rogerio De Lima Fastest KO (+850) .25u
No Fights End in Submission (+1348) .25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1930) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Njokuani/Not Lima Decision/Not Da Silva Decision/Not Caceres ITD (-110) 1.1u to win 1u
Njokuani/Assuncao (+137) 1u
Cerrone/Cerrone (+159) 1u

Note: First leg of Cerrone open parlay was his win against Matt Brown.

[JC2008]

Does anyone think Arvlovski and Ngannou will just grapple f uck each other to a decision? Odds for Arv by decision is +700 and Ngannou +1200, Ngannou to win in round 2 is also 700 and 1200 for the 3rd.

[JIBBBY]

Does anyone think Arvlovski and Ngannou will just grapple penetrate each other to a decision? Odds for Arv by decision is +700 and Ngannou +1200, Ngannou to win in round 2 is also 700 and 1200 for the 3rd.

No way.. Arlovsky is purely a stand up fighter and always has been, he's gonna be light on his feet and running for his life in this fight.. Stick and move has to be his game plan, pick his spots and attack...

[JC2008]

No way.. Arlovsky is purely a stand up fighter and always has been, he's gonna be light on his feet and running for his life in this fight.. Stick and move has to be his game plan, pick his spots and attack...

Yeah... I don't think he has the strength or chin to keep away for long and the first punch that lands by Ngannou will probably have him shaken up. Was just thinking if Ngannou somehow gassed but I doubt it lasts long enough for that to happen.

[JIBBBY]

First 4 fights for me - Let's see how this goes to start off.. $100 bets mostly.. $75 on Pajora... Too lazy to copy and paste off 5dimes.. Easier just to type.. ... Trying to cook breakfast right now too.


#1 - Contrell straight hedged with Gonzales by KO

#2 - Panjora straight small

#3 - Over 1.5 (+200 as both guys are tough to KO).. Also De Lima by Sub..

#4 - Spicely by sub.

[JIBBBY]

Yeah... I don't think he has the strength or chin to keep away for long and the first punch that lands by Ngannou will probably have him shaken up. Was just thinking if Ngannou somehow gassed but I doubt it lasts long enough for that to happen.

If you think AA is gonna dance and just try to last perhaps these long shot props have a chance.. I don't think I'm gonna touch them though as I don't trust AA's chin..

1211 N’Gannou wins by 3 round decision

+739

1203

Arkovske / Ngannou goes 3 rnd distance

+425

[JC2008]

If you think AA is gonna dance and just try to last perhaps these long shot props have a chance.. I don't think I'm gonna touch them though as I don't trust AA's chin..

1211 N’Gannou wins by 3 round decision

+739

1203

Arkovske / Ngannou goes 3 rnd distance

+425

Yeah, Ngannou also has a 6 inch reach advantage. If anything, Ngannou round 2 +700, round 3 +1200 minor sprinkles but Ngannou ML or by KO/TKO/DQ -275 is the way to go with some parlays imo.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah, Ngannou also has a 6 inch reach advantage. If anything, Ngannou round 2 +700, round 3 +1200 minor sprinkles but Ngannou ML or by KO/TKO/DQ -275 is the way to go with some parlays imo.

Ngannou KO/TKO is (-162) on 5Dimes

[Hugo de Naranja]

First 4 fights for me - Let's see how this goes to start off.. $100 bets mostly.. $75 on Pajora... Too lazy to copy and paste off 5dimes.. Easier just to type.. ... Trying to cook breakfast right now too.


#1 - Contrell straight hedged with Gonzales by KO

#2 - Panjora straight small

#3 - Over 1.5 (+200 as both guys are tough to KO).. Also De Lima by Sub..

#4 - Spicely by sub.

Best of luck today bud. Hope you cash!

[JIBBBY]

Best of luck today bud. Hope you cash!

Thanks Hugo same back to ya bud!!

Only fight I'm still twisted on is that Cowboy Cerronne/Masvidal scrap.. I really wanna bet on Masvidal as the dog, good body shot or punch and I think Cowboy could fold, but logic suggests Cerrone will have a slightly higher out put in the striking department with punches and kicks.. He may also mix in a take down here and there..

Masvidal is impossible to finish as well.. So I think you gotta go Cerrone by decision at the +140 since it's only a 3 rounder..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks Hugo same back to ya bud!!

Only fight I'm still twisted on is that Cowboy Cerronne/Masvidal scrap.. I really wanna bet on Masvidal as the dog, good body shot or punch and I think Cowboy could fold, but logic suggests Cerrone will have a slightly higher out put in the striking department with punches and kicks.. He may also mix in a take down here and there..

Masvidal is impossible to finish as well.. So I think you gotta go Cerrone by decision at the +140 since it's only a 3 rounder..

Check out my long shot breakdown on this fight if you've got the chance. I thought Cote and Story would be super tough to finish as well as Cowboy dominated them so I'm going with ITD here. No disrespect to Masvidal as I'm a big fan of him too.

[JIBBBY]

Check out my long shot breakdown on this fight if you've got the chance. I thought Cote and Story would be super tough to finish as well as Cowboy dominated them so I'm going with ITD here. No disrespect to Masvidal as I'm a big fan of him too.

I did Hugo - I just really can't see Masvidal getting finished.. He's tough as nails, granite chin, defensive and solid ground game.. He's got masterful defense standing as well..

Just for the record - Masvidal hasn't been finished since the Bellator days (8 years ago) when he was raw and just a kid.. I think if anyone is to finish in this fight it's gonna be Masvidal laying the wood down on Cowboy.. He's really fighting with a purpose lately since he's been robbed in recent decisions.. Upped his pace and volume recently...

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jorge-Masvidal-7688

It's also beyond me why this fight isn't the main event?

FOX Main Card



Donald
Cerrone
"Cowboy"
vs
Jorge
Masvidal
"Gamebred"

UNITED STATES
Country
USA

32-7-0, 1NC
Record
31-11-0

25%
KO/TKO
39%

50%
SUB
6%

25%
DEC
55%

73 in
Height
71 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

73 in
Reach
74 in

40 in
Leg Reach
39 in

[Unwritten Law]

Schevchenko
Gamebred
Ngannou
Jingliang
Cottrell

[Shagdogy]

I'll post my plays in a bit... figuring out my numbers but looks like I'm seeing things much the same as Hugo tonight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Fair enough. We'll see. It's not the main event since this fight was added to the card after the main event had already been announced. Remember Cowboy fought at UFC 206 in early December.

[JIBBBY]

OK here we go!! Early prelims starting now!!! GL to all!!!

[TPowell]

Sweet! Had gonzo on my draft king's gpp team.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I've got that one 29-28 Pantoja but nothing from 29-28 Shelton to 30-27 would surprise me. Good fight

[rsynweap84]

Deez fights r already NUTZ!!!!



EDIT: But will it stay this way?...

EDIT 2: Can Cerrone KO Mas? I mean is it realistic? I know he's been KO'ing ppls for their first time lately...or will he go for the D? This fight is really troubling for me...by far one of the toughest to pick on.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

good evening fellow professionals

[Hugo de Naranja]

Got that pick straight on. Pantoja split

[Shagdogy]

De Lima 2u, -140
Jingliang 2u, -137
Sterling 2u, +122
Alvey 1.5u, -145
Da Silva 1.5u, +170

I would've been much bigger on De Lima but the altitude and his missed weight scared me, and I just don't feel great about it, but my capping has him as a big fav in my eyes. Alvey is just a stab against an older, weak chinned opponent. Just could not get comfortable on this card. Hoping for just a moderate gain. Good luck everyone. I may add something on Masvidal/Cerrone later. We'll see.

[TPowell]

Not bad, had Pantoja in my cash game. Thought he would score some even if he lost. The win helps for sure and I had a unit on him at +115 as well. GREAT start! Lets keep it rolling. Need Kimball in both of my draftkings lineups!

[JIBBBY]

Dogs are barking early..

1-1 so far.. Got lit up on that first fight with the hedge .. Won the 2nd fight as the dog hit.... Hit and miss down a tiny bit.. It's early still not worried about it yet....

[TPowell]

92 points from Gonzo and 52 from Pantoja. Was hoping for more takedowns and advances and such but oh well. 52 isn't bad. Just need Kimball to pick up a ton of points and I'm rolling on both!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:
Kimball Round 2 (+925) .25u
Kimball Round 3 (+1750) .1u

[TPowell]

Sorry, up to 59.5 now for Pantoja. Hate how slow DK is updating scores for guys.


One thing, those guys were gassed and they were flyweights. These big guys are going to be sucking air EARLY

[TPowell]

Adding:
Kimball Round 2 (+925) .25u
Kimball Round 3 (+1750) .1u

On both of those as well in this fight. That is all I'm on though

[JIBBBY]

Let's see how this works out in this next fight... Going in the opposite direction then Tpow and Hugo..

$100.00

$200.00

Pending

1/28/17 5:00pm UFC Fighting 1901 Marcos Rogerio de Lima/Jeremy Kimball Over 1½ +200*

$50.00

$173.50

Pending

1/28/17 5:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1927 De Lima wins by submission +347* vs Any other result

[Shagdogy]

Adding:
Kimball Round 2 (+925) .25u
Kimball Round 3 (+1750) .1u

Hard to argue with this.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Sorry, up to 59.5 now for Pantoja. Hate how slow DK is updating scores for guys.


One thing, those guys were gassed and they were flyweights. These big guys are going to be sucking air EARLY

That's what I'm thinking. Pretty decent exposure to Under and Fight Won't Start R2

[Ty$]

Who's taking Pena and Masvidal??? I like them both wish they were bigger 🐶 dogs

[JIBBBY]

Who's taking Pena and Masvidal??? I like them both wish they were bigger  dogs

No plays on either yet.. Thinking Cowboy by Dec, hedge Masvidal ITD... I think that's how I'm gonna play it.. Fight goes the distance with the chicks..