UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey (December 30, 2016)

[PaperTrail07]

Going w Cowboy here....almost simply bc of his last 2 wins...

[JIBBBY]

Going w Cowboy here....almost simply bc of his last 2 wins...

Same can be said for Dirty Birds in his last 2 fights - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tim-Means-11281

That's why I think someone is going to sleep in this one.. Cowboy can eventually be broken mentally when getting pressured and beat up (Cowboy Cerrone broke him) and Means doesn't have an absolute granite chin (been rocked in fights) and can be KO'd himself maybe.. Cowboy can bang... Something should give in this fight..

If this fight goes to decision I lose. Hoping it doesn't..

[PaperTrail07]

Not in my opinion.....John Howard does not move....sits there to hit...and it was Homasi's first fight in the UFC.....nor very impressed by those wins....set up for means...

Same can be said for Dirty Birds in his last 2 fights - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tim-Means-11281

That's why I think someone is going to sleep in this one.. Cowboy can eventually be broken mentally when getting pressured and beat up (Cowboy Cerrone broke him) and Means doesn't have a granite chin either and can KO'd himself.. Something should give in this fight..

[PaperTrail07]

Cowboy avoids the elbows of means he should be oK.....will win grapple battle youd think....

[JIBBBY]

Cowboy avoids the elbows of means he should be oK.....will win grapple battle youd think....

Well let's see what happens Paper? If it becomes a grappling fight at any point I like Means chances for a sub.. Maybe a choke out like Cowboy Cerrone did to him or something.. Oli showed nothing on the ground and was quick to tap out last I checked when getting pressured standing, touched up and gassing like in the Cowboy Cerrone fight..

I'm really pulling for the Cowboy KO though for my bets.. If Means stays in range most of the fight at some point Cowboy could tag him and maybe put him out on the flip..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks BJ and Papes

[PaperTrail07]

For sure we will see.....Cowboy CERRONE has the ability to make people look dumb I give him a pass there...

Well let's see what happens Paper? If it becomes a grappling fight at any point I like Means chances for a sub.. Maybe a choke out like Cowboy Cerrone did to him or something.. Oli showed nothing on the ground and was quick to tap out last I checked when getting pressured standing, touched up and gassing like in the Cowboy Cerrone fight..

I'm really pulling for the Cowboy KO though for my bets.. If Means stays in range most of the fight at some point Cowboy could tag him and maybe put him out on the flip..

[Hugo de Naranja]

$71.00	$658.43		Pending	5 Team Parlay
					Pending	12/30/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -165* vs Amanda Nunes
					Pending	12/30/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Dominick Cruz -210* vs Cody Garbrandt
					Pending	12/30/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Neil Magny -160* vs Johny Hendricks
					Pending	12/30/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Alex Garcia -180* vs Mike Pyle
					Pending	12/30/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1901 Alex Oliveira -140* vs Tim Means

I like it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Big parlay of the night for me is Cruz ML/Lineker NO CARDS (+150)

Love this one. Two of my biggest bets as well. Lineker SNA somehow got up to (+150) before dropping all the way down to (-165).

[Hugo de Naranja]

Garcia fades badly though. Pyle is a slow starter so I think its either Garcia early with the TKO or Pyle late or a 2-1 decision

All comes down to how the second round plays out

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ya know this card is kinda stacked.. First fight in the early prelims is even decent.. Tim Means vs mini fake Cowboy Brazilian...

This is how I'm playing that first fight - My feelings are both are finishers and someone is gonna finish and probably by KO...

Fight #1 -

$100.00

$320.00

Pending

12/30/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1909 Means wins inside distance +320* vs Not Means inside distance

Hedged

$100.00

$500.00

Pending

12/30/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1929 Oliveira wins by TKO/KO +500* vs Any other result

Alex
Oliveira
"Cowboy"
vs
Tim
Means
"The Dirty Bird"

BRAZIL
Country
USA

15-3-1, 1NC
Record
26-7-1

67%
KO/TKO
69%

13%
SUB
15%

20%
DEC
15%

71 in
Height
74 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

I think Means has almost never been KO'ed in his career. Possible that Brazilian Cowboy could get him by late GnP but I think sub is more likely if Aloe Vera is going to finish at all.

[JIBBBY]

I think Means has almost never been KO'ed in his career. Possible that Brazilian Cowboy could get him by late GnP but I think sub is more likely if Aloe Vera is going to finish at all.

Tim Means has never been KO'd in fights but he has been wobbled and rocked before.. Oli has a 70% KO finish rate and is capable of knocking out anyone in the UFC if he begins to land.. That includes Dirty Bird..

Same can go the other way if Dirty Bird begins to pressure and land elbows and punches on Cowboy.. We've seen Cowboy fold and quit in fights like in the Donald Cerrone fight.. He got rolled under the pressure.. Dirty Bird is a pressure fighter in a sense also.. If he begins to back up Cowboy I think he will knock him out or drop him with volume striking and then pound him out or sub him out..

I'm also on Means straight now on a few of my other books that aren't offering props... I'm leaning Tim Means for the straight win now and by finish ITD hopefully.

[JIBBBY]

All comes down to how the second round plays out

I agree with Tpow.. Pyle has a glass jaw and I think he gets dropped by Garcia and knocked out cold again.. Dude is old and the chin is shot.. Big fade on Pyle for me in that one.. I'm not even hedging in this fight..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tim Means has never been KO'd in fights but he has been wobbled and rocked before.. Oli has a 70% KO finish rate and is capable of knocking out anyone in the UFC if he begins to land.. That includes Dirty Bird..

Same can go the other way if Dirty Bird begins to pressure and land elbows and punches on Cowboy.. We've seen Cowboy fold and quit in fights like in the Donald Cerrone fight.. He got rolled under the pressure.. Dirty Bird is a pressure fighter in a sense also.. If he begins to back up Cowboy I think he will knock him out or drop him with volume striking and then pound him out or sub him out..

I'm also on Means straight now on a few of my other books that aren't offering props... I'm leaning Tim Means for the straight win now and by finish ITD hopefully.

Fair points

[Hugo de Naranja]

I agree with Tpow.. Pyle has a glass jaw and I think he gets dropped by Garcia and knocked out cold again.. Dude is old and the chin is shot.. Big fade on Pyle for me in that one.. I'm not even hedging in this fight..

On Garcia + KO as well

[TPowell]

Hendricks up to +160 at 5Dimes. Even though he's overweight and looks awful, his style matches up decently with Magny IMO. Magny pumps the jab alot but he tries to grapple way more than he should because his striking is only decent. I think Hendricks could out-wrestler Magny in this one if he can neutralize the reach (big if). If this stays there or close I'll probably play it right before the fight

[TPowell]

I can't see a finish in the Oli/Means fight. Means is tough and Oli would have to land something lucky IMO. Think Oli closes distance and makes it a boring fight

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hendricks up to +160 at 5Dimes. Even though he's overweight and looks awful, his style matches up decently with Magny IMO. Magny pumps the jab alot but he tries to grapple way more than he should because his striking is only decent. I think Hendricks could out-wrestler Magny in this one if he can neutralize the reach (big if). If this stays there or close I'll probably play it right before the fight

When was the last time Hendricks used his wrestling effectively?

[PaperTrail07]

Right LOL...

When was the last time Hendricks used his wrestling effectively?

[JIBBBY]

Yep Hendricks is alot like Josh Koscheck now.. Doesn't use his wrestling in fights.. Hendricks doubles and shots are crap though anyways.. Magny should be able to keep this fight standing and eventually get the KO or win it by decision...

If Hendricks fought smart and used his wrestling and looked to lay and pray he'd probably win though... Not in his DNA anymore. Hendricks is clearly on the decline lately.... Magny has to be the logical call especially after seeing what happened at the weigh ins....

FS1



Johny
Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
vs
Neil
Magny

USA
Country
USA

17-5-0
Record
18-6-0

47%
KO/TKO
33%

6%
SUB
17%

47%
DEC
50%

[Snowball]

good luck bros.

just wanted to say I'm closing out multiple open parlays
with Ronda tonight, and that's the only fight I really care about.

good luck again - and if you win, win again tomorrow.
The Eagles look good vs a Dallas team that will rest.

[Shagdogy]

Hendricks up to +160 at 5Dimes. Even though he's overweight and looks awful, his style matches up decently with Magny IMO. Magny pumps the jab alot but he tries to grapple way more than he should because his striking is only decent. I think Hendricks could out-wrestler Magny in this one if he can neutralize the reach (big if). If this stays there or close I'll probably play it right before the fight

Given his failed weight cuts and how he was dehydrated to the point of delusion for two days I'm thinking if he tries to wrestle he will gas out QUICK.

[TPowell]

Given his failed weight cuts and how he was dehydrated to the point of delusion for two days I'm thinking if he tries to wrestle he will gas out QUICK.

Guys like Hendricks can wrestle without gassing much better than others because of the amateur background IMO. When you grow up wrestling, it makes it easier. Magny's takedown defense just isn't that good

[Ty$]

Guys like Hendricks can wrestle without gassing much better than others because of the amateur background IMO. When you grow up wrestling, it makes it easier. Magny's takedown defense just isn't that good

If Hendricks can't KO him in round one he doesn't win

[TPowell]

Up to +165, a washed up Hendricks still has a shot against Neil Magny who grapples way too much for his own good. Wish that +3.5 would go down. I think it easily cashes but -160 is a little high

[JIBBBY]

If Hendricks can't KO him in round one he doesn't win

1521 Hendricks wins in round 1

+1025

1533 Hendricks wins by TKO/KO

+650

on the flip

1505 Magny wins inside distance

+238

[Ty$]

1521 Hendricks wins in round 1

+1025

1533 Hendricks wins by TKO/KO

+650

on the flip

1505 Magny wins inside distance

+238

Can magny get him out in under 15 minutes??? That's the tough call ... magny wins tho IMO. +1025 tho is nuts cuz I feel jony needs to touch that chin fast to have a shot against a human gazelle.

[JIBBBY]

Speaking about one round fighters, Thatch fits that bill... Thatch steam rolls or gets taking out soon after.. That's the trends.. Not knowing this new comer I'm leaning Thatch by steam roll in the 1st... All of Thatch wins come in the 1st round http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brandon-Thatch-22298


This is how I'm playing it... Leaning towards Thatch and the 1st round finish..

Fight #2 -

$100.04

$195.80

Pending

12/30/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1805 Price wins inside distance +195* vs Not Price inside distance

Hedged

$150.00

$275.50

Pending

12/30/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1821 Thatch wins in round 1 +185* vs Any other result

FS1



Brandon
Thatch
"Rukus"
vs
Niko
Price
"The Hybrid"

USA
Country
UNITED STATES

11-4-0
Record
8-0-0

73%
KO/TKO
75%

27%
SUB
13%

0%
DEC
13%

[Ty$]

I'm on the first 2 dogs tonight straight

[Hugo de Naranja]

If Hendricks can't KO him in round one he doesn't win

Agreed. I hedged my Magny play with Hendricks R1. Hendricks could maybe win a dirty split but I doubt it

[Kermit]

Going w Cowboy here....almost simply bc of his last 2 wins...

Same here.

[Shagdogy]

Magny -125 over Hendricks, 4u to win 3.2
Magny/Hendricks Under 2.5 +161, 1.5u to win 2.36
Means -115 over Oliveira (terrible line), 1u to win .87
Garcia -165 over Pyle, 4u to win 2.42
Kim -143 over Saffiedine, 3u to win 2.1

Laying a lot of juice on this card. Not my favorite. I wanted to find a solid dog that I like but I'm not sold on Lineker. I think he lost the Dodson fight and he was frustrated at his movement and Dodson moves about half as much as TJ. I kinda like Nunes but I think Rousey is a big time unknown coming into this fight. Gonna need to be right more often than wrong on this one. Good luck everyone. Should be some good fights.

[JIBBBY]

Can magny get him out in under 15 minutes??? That's the tough call ... magny wins tho IMO. +1025 tho is nuts cuz I feel jony needs to touch that chin fast to have a shot against a human gazelle.

Magny is long and rangy just like Wonder boy Thompson.. Wonderboy took him out quickly.. Considering Hendricks was severely drained from the cut also makes me believe so..

[TPowell]

Magny is long and rangy just like Wonder boy Thompson.. Wonderboy took him out quickly.. Considering Hendricks was severely drained from the cut also makes me believe so..

Surely you aren't comparing the two. Magny is nowhere near the striker that Thompson is and his takedown defense isn't good

[Kermit]

I got 10 people coming down for the fights tonight and I am sick as Hell. So pumped for this card and I feel like shit.