UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey (December 30, 2016)

[Hugo de Naranja]

With so much critique of Nunes cardio, cardio will def not be a factor. People said that rodriguez would fade, and then he went 5 rounds. People said mcregor would fade, then he survived 5 rounds. Same thing with Lineker, went five rounds easy. People said that alan joubain would fight reckless, then he paced himself for three rounds. If something happens again and again, at some point it wont happen anymore. Some fighters learn, cardio in nunes training probably becomes a focal point now, IMO.

Both Rodriguez and McGregor did fade. Doesn't the idea that "if something happens again and again, at some point it won't happen anymore" contradict your points about Thatch's TDD and sub defense or is his problem more about heart than technical deficiencies? It's possible her cardio has improved but I'll believe it when I see it.

Cardio has a lot to do with fighting style. Amanda's style is similar to guys like Rumble and McGregor who go out and put everything into getting the early finish. If she doesn't change her approach, her cardio is likely to stay a problem. Look at her fight with Shevchenko where Nunes dominated the first 2 rounds and then gassed badly.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I disagree, Ronda was trying to play the range for a bit until she got tagged then started to charge in more, she got taken down and got angry then started rushing with no gameplan ... Ronda was in the 3rd round with meisha once and didn't really look gassed at all imo, Nunes I don't think will be 70% or up if the fight hits 3rd round and up unless she's greatly improved her cardio at ATT.. I could easily see Ronda coming in wild and taking her out to though similar how cat zingano did in there fight but she didn't take her out in the first round she thoroughly dominated her though

I'd suggest betting RR live after R1 at any +odds. I agree with your analysis here. Nunes likely needs the finish to win.

[Hugo de Naranja]

And showing thatch losing to top notch competition isn't comparable even the slightest to a UFC newcomer lol... Gunnar Nelson is top 10-15 quality this guy he's fighting now would get absolutely starched by Nelson .. thatch has a ton of talent and people say he has asthma ( why he fades late in fights ) at -190 this is a huge steal imo people see somebody lose a few times to good guys and think they suck all of the sudden

A set up matchup for Thatch to win imo.

[bjpenn85]

Both Rodriguez and McGregor did fade. Doesn't the idea that "if something happens again and again, at some point it won't happen anymore" contradict your points about Thatch's TDD and sub defense or is his problem more about heart than technical deficiencies? It's possible her cardio has improved but I'll believe it when I see it.



Cardio has a lot to do with fighting style. Amanda's style is similar to guys like Rumble and McGregor who go out and put everything into getting the early finish. If she doesn't change her approach, her cardio is likely to stay a problem. Look at her fight with Shevchenko where Nunes dominated the first 2 rounds and then gassed badly.

Ive never said anything about thatch technique, but i commented on his weak heart. I cant remember any fighter to date who first demonstrated bad heart, and then go on to have an iron will.

Nunes and rouseys fight will probably be over in a heart beat, so cardio wont be so important in this particular fight i think. Its rousey sub or Nunes tko, with an outside chance of a sub from a KO, in the first two rounds. For me this is probably the most exciting fight on the card.

[firekillex]

I'd suggest betting RR live after R1 at any +odds. I agree with your analysis here. Nunes likely needs the finish to win.

Agreed , on Nunes +140 a while back just because I liked the value but if rousey survives round 1 at + money I'll probably take a stab, this fight is super interesting should be fireworks

and agreed on the thatch fight they want to build him up imo , this is a setup fight -190 is a steal for me regardless what people here are saying.. he has a ton of skills and I think he'll show it on Friday

[JIBBBY]

What do you plan to hedge with?

Bottom line is Thatch has lost his last 3 fights and in quitting fashion.. That's never a good thing...

Thatch has no grit or heart, he's a quitter if the fight drags on.... I don't know enough about Price and still trying to find more fight video on the dude.. Based on Price's 6 ko wins in 8 pro fights I'd have to say I'll probably hedge by KO when it comes out... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Niko-Price-96921


I'll be looking for the Thatch round 1 finish prop...

Price ITD is at +200 now so the KO prop will be a little better... Maybe +250

1805

Price wins inside distance

+200

[JIBBBY]

Nunes will win in R1/R2 or lose.

Exactly what I'm thinking so these are your props..

Slight chance Rousey could go full mount and pound out Nunes but I don't think I'm betting on that..

1009 Rousey wins inside distance

-111

We gotta remember Rousey loves going to the armbar and is still basically a one trick pony on the ground with it..

1039 Rousey wins by submission

+130

hedge


1015 Nunes wins in round 1

+250

I'm not convinced this fight gets out of the 1st round one way or the other but here is the round 2 prop..

1017 Nunes wins in round 2

+650

[Rich Benjamins]

Exactly what I'm thinking so these are your props..

Slight chance Rousey could go full mount and pound out Nunes but I don't think I'm betting on that..

1009 Rousey wins inside distance

-111

We gotta remember Rousey loves going to the armbar and is still basically a one trick pony on the ground with it..

1039 Rousey wins by submission

+130

hedge


1015 Nunes wins in round 1

+250

I'm not convinced this fight gets out of the 1st round one way or the other but here is the round 2 prop..

1017 Nunes wins in round 2

+650

I like that rd 2 prop. Nunes could beat Ronda up in rd 1, then finish her off in rd 2. That's like what Holly Holm did. And what MacGregor did to Alvarez.

[JIBBBY]

MMAMANIA part 1 short preview reads - Stingy only 2 fights covered so far..




170 lbs.: Alex Oliveira vs. Tim Means

Three consecutive victories paved the way for a tumultuous 2016 for Alex Oliveira (16-4-1), which kicked off with a loss to Donald Cerrone in the first-ever UFC main event for the Brazilian "Cowboy." He proceeded to dominate James Moontasri and upset Will Brooks, although he grievously missed weight in the latter.
He is three inches shorter than the 6’2" Tim Means (26-7).
Means has made the most of his second shot at UFC stardom, going 6-1 since a loss to Neil Magny in 2014. After missing out on a shot at Donald Cerrone because of United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA)-related issues, "Dirty Bird" returned in August to batter Sabah Homasi into submission at UFC 202.
Eighteen of his professional wins have come by knockout.
This is a phenomenal fight, one that should have the winner knocking on the door of the Top 15. While Means has the edge in the feet in terms of slickness, length and strike variety, I’m leaning toward Oliveira. The key here is the wrestling of "Cowboy" -- none of the six men Means smashed during his current run had any sort of takedown prowess. Oliveira is durable enough to survive on the feet and I’m not sure that Means -- who can slip into cruise control at times -- will throw enough volume to overcome the time he spends on his back.
Means is scary in the clinch and could certainly punish Oliveira if he gets too eager, but Oliveira’s brutal pace and ground control are just too much. He controls the fight on the mat to take the decision win.
Prediction: Oliveira via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Brandon Thatch vs. Niko Price

(Note: This was today promoted to the FOX Sports 1 "Prelims," but will keep it here to we can preview more than just one fight).
Once touted as the future of the Welterweight division, three consecutive submission losses leave Brandon Thatch (11-4) fighting for his UFC life. His first main event turn saw him tap to Benson Henderson, after which "Rukus" was dropped and stopped by Gunnar Nelson and submitted by Siyar Bahadurzada (of all people).
All of his wins have come by first-round stoppage, eight of them knockouts.
Niko Price (8-0) opened his career with an armbar win, then proceeded to knockout his next six opponents. His last fight, in August, saw him go to the judges for the first time after six first-round finishes and one in the second. He steps in for Sabah Homasi in short notice.
Honestly, the Henderson and Nelson losses were understandable -- "Bendo" is a former champion and Nelson has really come into his own of late. Against Bahadurzada, though, Thatch just looked helpless. No part of his game worked. Indeed, his striking was powerless, his takedown defense woeful, and he did absolutely nothing to defend against the finishing arm-triangle.
This is a fight he both can and has to win. Though I’ve yet to find any recent footage of Price, he looks like the sort of slow, flat-footed bruiser who Thatch ought to beat to a pulp. Of course, the exact same could be said of Bahadurzada and Thatch still struggled.
I’m giving "Rukus" one more chance. If there’s anything left of the confident, aggressive bulldozer who once enthralled the fans, he smashes Price in one round.
Prediction: Thatch via first-round technical knockout

Part 2 -

170 lbs.: Johny Hendricks vs. Neil Magny
Johny Hendricks (17-5) hasn’t enjoyed a smooth road since losing his Welterweight title to Robbie Lawler and bouncing back with a decision over Matt Brown. "Bigg Rigg" started by eating himself out of a fight with Tyron Woodley, then went on to suffer a career-first knockout loss to Stephen Thompson and subsequently miss weight in a decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum.
Eight of his 17 wins have come by knockout.
A 1-2 start for Neil Magny's (18-5) Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) tenure gave way to a 10-1 run that included victories over the aforementioned Gastelum and Hector Lombard. His last time out, he faced former Strikeforce standout Lorenz Larkin and suffered the first (technical) knockout loss of his professional career.
He is six inches taller than Hendricks and, according to UFC's website, will have an 11-inch reach advantage.
We’re long past the point where I can have any confidence in Hendricks. "Bigg Rigg’s" repeated struggles with weight and tepid performance against Gastelum have sapped any momentum the former champion once possessed. Neither his takedowns nor his once-fearsome left hand have posed any danger to his recent opposition.
Even at the best of times, he’d struggle with the incredibly rangy Magny. Now, when he looks weaker than ever, he’s in for a rough night. Magny’s sheer length precludes Hendricks’ surprisingly-solid combination punching and low kicks while simultaneously turning the lunging left the Oklahoman is fond of into a dangerous gambit.
Barring residual trauma from the Larkin fight, Magny’s ever-improving wrestling defense and ability to get stronger as the fight progresses should carry him to a striking-heavy decision.
Prediction: Magny via unanimous decision

185 lbs.: Antonio Carlos Jr. vs. Marvin Vettori

Antonio Carlos Jr. (6-2) won The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Brazil 3" as a Heavyweight before returning to 205 pounds and, after a loss to Patrick Cummins, dropping further to 185 pounds. "Cara de Sapato" has gone 2-1 with one "No Contest" in the division with wins over Eddie Gordon and Leonardo "Leleco," the fourth and fifth submission wins of his career.
He will have two inches of height and five inches of reach on Marvin Vettori (11-2).
The 23-year-old Vettori cranked out five consecutive victories to earn a shot in UFC, including a guillotine submission of Igor Araujo in Venator. In his debut, he out-grappled Brazil’s Alberto "Uda" and ultimately locked up another guillotine late in the first.
He has eight wins by submission and two by (technical) knockout ... all in the first round.
Vettori’s a skilled, scrappy kid, but Carlos seems all wrong for him. The Brazilian’s power gives him the edge on the feet and his literally world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills spell disaster for Vettori if the Italian goes for his usual takedown-heavy onslaught.
The only real question in this fight is whether Carlos’ cardio will fail him again as it did against Daniel Kelly. Luckily, his strong performance against "Leleco" demonstrated a solid gas tank. Vettori’s aggressiveness costs him as Carlos locks up a choke in transition.
Prediction: Carlos via first-round submission

170 lbs.: Mike Pyle vs. Alex Garcia

Mike Pyle (27-12-1) -- who turned 41 this past September -- looked ageless in his February war with Sean Spencer, battering "Black Magic" into submission in the fifteenth minute. The comeback wasn’t there next time against Alberto Mina, who knocked "Quicksand" cold with a flying knee in July.
He has 16 submission wins among his 23 finishes.
Alex Garcia (13-3) opened his UFC career 3-1, including a brutal knockout of Ben Wall and a very close decision loss to Magny. He last fought in February against Sean Strickland and suffered his first UFC stoppage defeat in Pittsburgh.
"Dominican Nightmare" will give up four inches of height to the 6’1" Pyle.
Two or three fights ago, I would have picked Pyle in a heartbeat. Garcia’s the exact sort of free-swinging, cardio-deficient slugger whom Pyle has built his recent career out of knocking out in the clinch after a rough start. After that Mina fight, though, I can’t pick "Quicksand" with any confidence.
It’s not the fact that Pyle got knocked out -- Lord knows that happens often enough. It’s the fact that he threw practically nothing before eating the flying knee. Pyle always starts slow, sure, but not that slow and not for that long.
Garcia’s too limited to ever crack the Top 15, but his power is too much for Pyle -- first-round knockout for the Dominican.
Prediction: Garcia via first-round knockout

[JIBBBY]

I like that rd 2 prop. Nunes could beat Ronda up in rd 1, then finish her off in rd 2. That's like what Holly Holm did. And what MacGregor did to Alvarez.

Maybe Richy, I just don't trust where Rousey's head is at.. Once she starts getting hit hard in the face under the big lights she may have Holly Holm flash backs and look for an out at the end of round 1.. Hard to tell...

Nunes does hit hard for a chick and has a variety of ways to connect to Rousey's chin too.. Knees, kicks and punches as Nunes is pretty well rounded with her strikes now.. Meisha Tate got hit with knees, strikes you name it from Nunes and dropped..

[PaperTrail07]

Don't complicate the obvious IMO

Take Rousey -130
Take Cruz -225 (over 2.5 -210) Cruz gameplan will work again.
Linekar +205 (I expect a SPLIT decision) could go against us LOL...
Garcia- 175
Magny -115 (just avoid lay and pray-Jab will be there all day)

[PaperTrail07]

Not saying I'm taking the over at -210....Will post bets later---

[Hugo de Naranja]

Exactly what I'm thinking so these are your props..

Slight chance Rousey could go full mount and pound out Nunes but I don't think I'm betting on that..

1009 Rousey wins inside distance

-111

We gotta remember Rousey loves going to the armbar and is still basically a one trick pony on the ground with it..

1039 Rousey wins by submission

+130

hedge


1015 Nunes wins in round 1

+250

I'm not convinced this fight gets out of the 1st round one way or the other but here is the round 2 prop..

1017 Nunes wins in round 2

+650

This is how I played it. Was initially on Nunes R1/R2 + KO but have switched my pick to Rousey with those as my hedges.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Don't complicate the obvious IMO

Take Rousey -130
Take Cruz -225 (over 2.5 -210) Cruz gameplan will work again.
Linekar +205 (I expect a SPLIT decision) could go against us LOL...
Garcia- 175
Magny -115 (just avoid lay and pray-Jab will be there all day)

My boy Papes about to go 5/5 here.

[Snowball]

Rousey -130/-140 area is the biggest MMA bet I've made all year.

Even if she somehow loses I won't regret this bet.

It's just the right thing to do.

That friend of mine who coaches this stuff and has been betting
MMA for a decade confirmed 100% Rhonda is the right choice.

[JIBBBY]

This is how I played it. Was initially on Nunes R1/R2 + KO but have switched my pick to Rousey with those as my hedges.

No I hit Nunes straight over a week ago when the odds were good.. Now I may be looking for Rousey in round 1 finish for a hedge and that's it..

If I didn't hit Nunes straight already I would be playing the props and the fight differently...

[JIBBBY]

Don't complicate the obvious IMO

Take Rousey -130
Take Cruz -225 (over 2.5 -210) Cruz gameplan will work again.
Linekar +205 (I expect a SPLIT decision) could go against us LOL...
Garcia- 175
Magny -115 (just avoid lay and pray-Jab will be there all day)

Paper, I can't knock you for the simple straight plays in MMA, but I'm a hedger and love the insurance when the odds make sense with the props.. It's been hit and miss for me in the last 3 or 4 UFC events but over the years I've won alot of money hedging fights that are iffy that could go one way or the other... Gotta stick to my guns as I know the prop hedge plays will start to pay off again consistently...

You guys know how I roll

[PaperTrail07]

Haha For sure Jibbbz........It seems square but I cant go against it lol

[Shagdogy]

Don't complicate the obvious IMO

Take Rousey -130
Take Cruz -225 (over 2.5 -210) Cruz gameplan will work again.
Linekar +205 (I expect a SPLIT decision) could go against us LOL...
Garcia- 175
Magny -115 (just avoid lay and pray-Jab will be there all day)

I stick with the straight plays as well. Garcia and Magny both seem solid plays. I'm not THAT impressed with Magny but Hendricks has disappeared. Garcia is in a strong spot for his style. Pyle is def crafty but his volume has gone down and down and his chin is leaving too. Not good for him here.

[Kermit]

Looks like this will be Goldberg's last UFC event. Wonder who he'll be replaced by?

Jim Rome is rumored.

Max Kellerman is also part of the rumor mill.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Odds on Hendricks to miss weight? He says he is super close but I'm skeptical.

[JIBBBY]

Odds on Hendricks to miss weight? He says he is super close but I'm skeptical.

If he misses weight I'll fade him even more.. That just tells me he's not serious about keeping his job and or really making another run for the UFC title.. If he makes weight comfortably I'll be a little nervous on my Magny bets..

That weigh should tell alot in other words IMO....

[Hugo de Naranja]

If he misses weight I'll fade him even more.. That just tells me he's not serious about keeping his job and or really making another run for the UFC title.. If he makes weight comfortably I'll be a little nervous on my Magny bets..

That weigh should tell alot in other words IMO....

Agreed. Hendricks never makes weight comfortably and he is mentally not all there. Magny all day my friend.

[Ty$]

Exactly what I'm thinking so these are your props..

Slight chance Rousey could go full mount and pound out Nunes but I don't think I'm betting on that..

1009 Rousey wins inside distance

-111

We gotta remember Rousey loves going to the armbar and is still basically a one trick pony on the ground with it..

1039 Rousey wins by submission

+130

hedge


1015 Nunes wins in round 1

+250

I'm not convinced this fight gets out of the 1st round one way or the other but here is the round 2 prop..

1017 Nunes wins in round 2

+650

I think Ronda throws her on her face and breaks her arm. Nunes has ok sprawl for a double but is clueless compared to Ronda tied up in the clinch. Ronda has never been less than -500. Easy $

[jtoler]

Shouldnt be too hard to make money on this fight.

[Unwritten Law]

Anyone playing RIZIN 3 starting in 15 mins? 10PM PST!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

^ yea I threw some Rizzin favs in some parlays for fun, King Mo, Cruickshank etc...

[Unwritten Law]

LOCKSMITH, you have a thread or starting one? I would've definitely be live in attendance if I were still in Japan. Miss it a lot! It's gonna be a long 5-7 hours long and will be tired for work in the morning if I watch the entire event!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Dont think there is much need for its own thread since the bets are off the board at 1:00 am eastern, dont know how many poster are actually watching it, but there is a day 2

[JIBBBY]

Bets are still on the board at 5dimes Locky.. I'm on the final 3 favorites... If you guys wanna stream it here you go... Starting now..

I'm surprised you guys knew about this..

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/12/28/14109934/rizin-world-grand-prix-2016-live-stream-online

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ok Jibs

[Kermit]

Shouldnt be too hard to make money on this fight.

Which fight?

[JIBBBY]

ok Jibs

Heath Herring lol... Remember that guy in the UFC 100 years ago? He was a tough brute brawler but had no wrestling... I remember that guy..

He's gonna get slaughtered...

[GunShard]

^^ Cardio is probably the hardest thing to fix in MMA.. You have to change up everything, diet, the way you work out, the way you fight in regards to your energy output, maybe compromise strength training even, etc... Not many fighters that have been in the sport as long as Nunes can auto correct that immediately, just saying..

I do think her cardio has probably improved a bit though especially knowing this a 5 round fight. Aggressive fighters and grappling fighters have a tendency to gas fast just because of their fighting style.. Stick and move stand up fighters can go on and on like the energizer rabbit if the fight stays standing....

If this becomes a ground fight then advantage Rousey in all areas, if it stays standing advantage Nunes I think..

That's true about cardio. Fighters with heavy hands like Dos Santos, Shane Carwin and Anthony Johnson gas out in the first few rounds due to their KO power. That's why Dominick Cruz was comparing Cody Garbrandt to Shane Carwin.

[eligibletackle]

Nunes not tackle eligible this time?

Haha! TY for appreciating a tackle eligible play but can't endorse Nunes here unless she's somehow +250 and even then I'd be hesitant to rub the front of my jersey as I come off the sidelines ...