UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey (December 30, 2016)

[bjpenn85]

she's spent months working on just this against men.

Haha. Nunes with lions though.

[strictlypaypal]

Flight is booked. Flying out of LAX friday 6am -__-

so based on Ronda now at -135 we can assume the public is on Nunes big correct

[Hugo de Naranja]

What was the best price you folks observed on the Nunes ML win? Has it ever been at +140 to +150 range?

Opened at +220 on 5Dimes

[Thrilla]

[Unwritten Law]

How would Ronda handle a loss this time around if she gets submitted? I feel if Amanda hurts her bad enough she will attempt a submission much like she did vs Tate. I think that's the worst scenario for Rousey. Also, how does she approach from the opening bell? Take the center of the octagon or pace herself for a potential war and try to wear Amanda down because Rousey has mentioned that she lacks cardio. Gonna be good and interesting but this highly anticipated fight will probably last a few minutes or no more than 2 full rounds.

[firekillex]

How would Ronda handle a loss this time around if she gets submitted? I feel if Amanda hurts her bad enough she will attempt a submission much like she did vs Tate. I think that's the worst scenario for Rousey. Also, how does she approach from the opening bell? Take the center of the octagon or pace herself for a potential war and try to wear Amanda down because Rousey has mentioned that she lacks cardio. Gonna be good and interesting but this highly anticipated fight will probably last a few minutes or no more than 2 full rounds.

id almost guarantee she retires if she gets starched again imo, and either she comes out like a beast which i anticipate or she tries to play the range game and bring nunes into deep water which she tried against holm and didnt work.... well see this friday should be interesting to see her approach with the worst coach in mma history

[Sanity Check]

[JIBBBY]

This is my preview.. ... Could happen again.. I'll post all the event write ups in a couple days...

[Unwritten Law]

Indeed Ronda has the worst coach and the advice he was giving vs Holm was atrocious. He's gotta love getting that massive cut and rub all over her while getting paid.

[firekillex]

Indeed Ronda has the worst coach and the advice he was giving vs Holm was atrocious. He's gotta love getting that massive cut and rub all over her while getting paid.

Not sure what was worse that or the Travis Browne cornering vs werdum 2... guy single handily is ruining careers

[JIBBBY]

MMAMANIA part 1 short preview reads - Stingy only 2 fights covered so far..




170 lbs.: Alex Oliveira vs. Tim Means

Three consecutive victories paved the way for a tumultuous 2016 for Alex Oliveira (16-4-1), which kicked off with a loss to Donald Cerrone in the first-ever UFC main event for the Brazilian "Cowboy." He proceeded to dominate James Moontasri and upset Will Brooks, although he grievously missed weight in the latter.
He is three inches shorter than the 6’2" Tim Means (26-7).
Means has made the most of his second shot at UFC stardom, going 6-1 since a loss to Neil Magny in 2014. After missing out on a shot at Donald Cerrone because of United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA)-related issues, "Dirty Bird" returned in August to batter Sabah Homasi into submission at UFC 202.
Eighteen of his professional wins have come by knockout.
This is a phenomenal fight, one that should have the winner knocking on the door of the Top 15. While Means has the edge in the feet in terms of slickness, length and strike variety, I’m leaning toward Oliveira. The key here is the wrestling of "Cowboy" -- none of the six men Means smashed during his current run had any sort of takedown prowess. Oliveira is durable enough to survive on the feet and I’m not sure that Means -- who can slip into cruise control at times -- will throw enough volume to overcome the time he spends on his back.
Means is scary in the clinch and could certainly punish Oliveira if he gets too eager, but Oliveira’s brutal pace and ground control are just too much. He controls the fight on the mat to take the decision win.
Prediction: Oliveira via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Brandon Thatch vs. Niko Price

(Note: This was today promoted to the FOX Sports 1 "Prelims," but will keep it here to we can preview more than just one fight).
Once touted as the future of the Welterweight division, three consecutive submission losses leave Brandon Thatch (11-4) fighting for his UFC life. His first main event turn saw him tap to Benson Henderson, after which "Rukus" was dropped and stopped by Gunnar Nelson and submitted by Siyar Bahadurzada (of all people).
All of his wins have come by first-round stoppage, eight of them knockouts.
Niko Price (8-0) opened his career with an armbar win, then proceeded to knockout his next six opponents. His last fight, in August, saw him go to the judges for the first time after six first-round finishes and one in the second. He steps in for Sabah Homasi in short notice.
Honestly, the Henderson and Nelson losses were understandable -- "Bendo" is a former champion and Nelson has really come into his own of late. Against Bahadurzada, though, Thatch just looked helpless. No part of his game worked. Indeed, his striking was powerless, his takedown defense woeful, and he did absolutely nothing to defend against the finishing arm-triangle.
This is a fight he both can and has to win. Though I’ve yet to find any recent footage of Price, he looks like the sort of slow, flat-footed bruiser who Thatch ought to beat to a pulp. Of course, the exact same could be said of Bahadurzada and Thatch still struggled.
I’m giving "Rukus" one more chance. If there’s anything left of the confident, aggressive bulldozer who once enthralled the fans, he smashes Price in one round.
Prediction: Thatch via first-round technical knockout

[JIBBBY]

I don't know about you guys but I have a very hard time betting on Thatch straight even in this fight.. Dude seems to find ways to lose fights if he doesn't win in the 1st round.. Certainly a live bet option if it's up on the board and the fight goes past round 1...

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brandon-Thatch-22298

Niko no UFC experience and a relatively unknown.. Is undefeated though.. Hmmm? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Niko-Price-96921

I'm thinking Thatch round 1 finish, hedge Niko ITD when the props come out.....

UFC 207 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass

Fri 12/30		1801 Niko Price		+165	o1½ +125
8:00PM		1802 Brandon Thatch		-190	u1½ -145

[firekillex]

Thatch is going to absolutely steam roll this guy

[bjpenn85]

Thatch is going to absolutely steam roll this guy

The skill disparity seems huge. But fading fighters skill drop of are sometimes unlimited. Emil Meek shouldnt beat Jordan Mein, and do i dare to say the skill diff also in that fight was large. And the deciding factor there was loss of heart and it is one thing that will decribe thatch these days, thats probably deminishing heart/will. So i would be careful betting Brandon Thatch, but very tempting to gananas on that line, because it seems a bit off.

[Unwritten Law]

Thatch went into this camp with two fellow Fight Elevation team members, Magny and Dillashaw.

[bjpenn85]

Thatch went into this camp with two fellow Fight Elevation team members, Magny and Dillashaw.

Who cares? Does that make sense? if you dont want to fight, you dont want to fight. Hes a quitter regardless of whom he trains with. Its something deep segmented in his mind. Its nothing you can suddenly change.

Hes still the better fighter, but you just cant know with quitters. Unstable entity.

[JIBBBY]

Thatch goes balls out in round one always, if he doesn't get the finish and gets tested he quits.. I lost money on that dude in the last 3 fights.. I learned my lesson..

I gotta agree with BJ, dude is skilled but has no heart and he will give up and lose if the fight drags on.. While talented it's still risky to bet big on Thatch right now IMO even against a skill challenged fighter that is undefeated in his UFC debut..

I'm gonna have to hedge myself.. I can't trust Thatch..

[PaperTrail07]

Northcutt.....exactly my point...

Who cares? Does that make sense? if you dont want to fight, you dont want to fight. Hes a quitter regardless of whom he trains with. Its something deep segmented in his mind. Its nothing you can suddenly change.

Hes still the better fighter, but you just cant know with quitters. Unstable entity.

[Unwritten Law]

Was trying to point at the fact he has some good sparring partners in his camp. Not really a fight to even bet on but I guess good for general discussion. Very small play just for action I suppose. No question he doesn't have much heart or even fight IQ. He reminds me of a Todd Duffee.

[bjpenn85]

Was trying to point at the fact he has some good sparring partners in his camp. Not really a fight to even bet on but I guess good for general discussion. Very small play just for action I suppose. No question he doesn't have much heart or even fight IQ. He reminds me of a Todd Duffee.

Agreed

[CaptChaos145]

id almost guarantee she retires if she gets starched again imo, and either she comes out like a beast which i anticipate or she tries to play the range game and bring nunes into deep water which she tried against holm and didnt work.... well see this friday should be interesting to see her approach with the worst coach in mma history

Ronda didn't try to play the range game with Holly. She charged Holly every chance she got and it backfired cause Holly is a counter striker. That fight was the bull vs. the matador and the matador won.

Amanda is the more explosive fighter and can take anyone out early. Neither girl ha sa lot of experience in deep water fights but we have seen Nunes fade after 2 rounds. IF Ronda charges Nunes early it will give Nunes her best chance of winning.

[bjpenn85]

With so much critique of Nunes cardio, cardio will def not be a factor. People said that rodriguez would fade, and then he went 5 rounds. People said mcregor would fade, then he survived 5 rounds. Same thing with Lineker, went five rounds easy. People said that alan joubain would fight reckless, then he paced himself for three rounds. If something happens again and again, at some point it wont happen anymore. Some fighters learn, cardio in nunes training probably becomes a focal point now, IMO.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Cardio is probably the hardest thing to fix in MMA.. You have to change up everything, diet, the way you work out, the way you fight in regards to your energy output, maybe compromise strength training even, etc... Not many fighters that have been in the sport as long as Nunes can auto correct that immediately, just saying..

I do think her cardio has probably improved a bit though especially knowing this a 5 round fight. Aggressive fighters and grappling fighters have a tendency to gas fast just because of their fighting style.. Stick and move stand up fighters can go on and on like the energizer rabbit if the fight stays standing....

If this becomes a ground fight then advantage Rousey in all areas, if it stays standing advantage Nunes I think..

[firekillex]

Ronda didn't try to play the range game with Holly. She charged Holly every chance she got and it backfired cause Holly is a counter striker. That fight was the bull vs. the matador and the matador won.

Amanda is the more explosive fighter and can take anyone out early. Neither girl ha sa lot of experience in deep water fights but we have seen Nunes fade after 2 rounds. IF Ronda charges Nunes early it will give Nunes her best chance of winning.

I disagree, Ronda was trying to play the range for a bit until she got tagged then started to charge in more, she got taken down and got angry then started rushing with no gameplan ... Ronda was in the 3rd round with meisha once and didn't really look gassed at all imo, Nunes I don't think will be 70% or up if the fight hits 3rd round and up unless she's greatly improved her cardio at ATT.. I could easily see Ronda coming in wild and taking her out to though similar how cat zingano did in there fight but she didn't take her out in the first round she thoroughly dominated her though

[Thor4140]

Ronda didn't try to play the range game with Holly. She charged Holly every chance she got and it backfired cause Holly is a counter striker. That fight was the bull vs. the matador and the matador won.

Amanda is the more explosive fighter and can take anyone out early. Neither girl ha sa lot of experience in deep water fights but we have seen Nunes fade after 2 rounds. IF Ronda charges Nunes early it will give Nunes her best chance of winning.

He must have seen a different fight because I didn't see any kind of range game against holly.

[Thor4140]

Any chance big rigg finds a way to come in shape or we gonna have the same saga again with him desperately trying to make weight. Ever since the steroid ban his power seems to have disappeared

[JIBBBY]

Rhonda by Armbar or Nunes by RNC submission now is what I'm thinking.. Nunes could get the pound out after dropping Rousey standing though.. So maybe Nunes ITD is the safer bet... Either way it's highly unlikely this fight drags on the more I think about it.. Both these girls are finishers by nature... I may try Nunes round 1 finish also just for giggles and kicks for small..

Also thinking Dom straight and hedge with Cody round 1 finish (KO) prop as a hedge. I'm not leaning towards Dom by decision anymore as I think the kid Cody will press, get frustrated and probably get dropped if the fight drags on.. Cody will come out trying to finish in round 1 for sure though...

[firekillex]

He must have seen a different fight because I didn't see any kind of range game against holly.

The first minute of the fight she was being the clear aggressor but wasn't rushing in for takedowns she wasn't playin the range to see the timing , she got tagged and started getting even more aggressive about 1:30 in she gets holly against cage and didn't get the takedown, she was pushing forward the entire fight but still wasn't fully committing to takedowns it was a clear stand up fight in kicking distance range ( why holm won ) she went for a judo takedown about 2-3 minutes in missed it then went for a failed arm bar then she just started getting careless let her emotions get the best of her and started rushing far to much, she was using a strategic range / aggressive style at firs that turned into just straight reckless abandon aggression which is why she lost... holm plays the range much better since she has great kicks and is long, Nunes has better power then holm but we've yet to see if she can keep that pace up for rounds , it's basically a style clash because holm has great movement and I feel like Nunes will not back up she'll engage rousey straight on in the middle which could play to rouseys strengths. Still a coin flip of a fight so I take the dog Nunes + money but I could easily see rousey taking this

[firekillex]

And showing thatch losing to top notch competition isn't comparable even the slightest to a UFC newcomer lol... Gunnar Nelson is top 10-15 quality this guy he's fighting now would get absolutely starched by Nelson .. thatch has a ton of talent and people say he has asthma ( why he fades late in fights ) at -190 this is a huge steal imo people see somebody lose a few times to good guys and think they suck all of the sudden

[Shagdogy]

Thatch goes balls out in round one always, if he doesn't get the finish and gets tested he quits.. I lost money on that dude in the last 3 fights.. I learned my lesson..

I gotta agree with BJ, dude is skilled but has no heart and he will give up and lose if the fight drags on.. While talented it's still risky to bet big on Thatch right now IMO even against a skill challenged fighter that is undefeated in his UFC debut..

Thatch's TDD is horrible, especially when he doesn't get momentum early. His ability to fight off his back is nonexistent. He has a wide open guard, lays flat on his back, and throws up lazy sub attempts that he only half commits to. Hard to see much on Price, but from what you can find, he's an aggressive, pressure fighter who is willing to trade and if it starts going south he will drop down for a takedown quickly. I mean, be honest, if you were fighting Thatch in your debut wouldn't you just tell yourself to not get cute and just take his sorry ass to the ground where he can't do anything? Just get the win. If Price comes in determined to drag it to the mat, Thatch has shown absolutely nothing that suggests he can win that kind of fight against pretty much anyone with any skill. Can't put money on Thatch. Lay off or take a stab on Price if you must but Thatch is just waaaaay too bad on the ground and can't stuff takedowns. Can't bet him.

[Shagdogy]

How will Means grind him? He usually prefers to strike at range.

Disagree. He's not particularly fast paced, but he's aggressive and always moving forward. He will walk right through his outside range if you let him and will fight a dirty fight in close with elbows, knees, short punches. He is very comfortable in close. I think that's where his best work is. Oliveira will not win a straight up striking match. He will almost certainly look to clinch and drag it to the ground but that means wading into dangerous waters with Means. He's built to hurt in close range. Tough fight to call though. IMO, Means will almost certainly do the most damage, but Oliveira could win a decision by smothering if he is successful enough at it. The dirtier fight the better for Dirty Bird.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Disagree. He's not particularly fast paced, but he's aggressive and always moving forward. He will walk right through his outside range if you let him and will fight a dirty fight in close with elbows, knees, short punches. He is very comfortable in close. I think that's where his best work is. Oliveira will not win a straight up striking match. He will almost certainly look to clinch and drag it to the ground but that means wading into dangerous waters with Means. He's built to hurt in close range. Tough fight to call though. IMO, Means will almost certainly do the most damage, but Oliveira could win a decision by smothering if he is successful enough at it. The dirtier fight the better for Dirty Bird.

You're right I was watching some tape for this today. Means likes the clinch and I think if he wins it will be by finish, probably TKO. Oliveira may lay and pray a decision though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Rhonda by Armbar or Nunes by RNC submission now is what I'm thinking.. Nunes could get the pound out after dropping Rousey standing though.. So maybe Nunes ITD is the safer bet... Either way it's highly unlikely this fight drags on the more I think about it.. Both these girls are finishers by nature... I may try Nunes round 1 finish also just for giggles and kicks for small..

Also thinking Dom straight and hedge with Cody round 1 finish (KO) prop as a hedge. I'm not leaning towards Dom by decision anymore as I think the kid Cody will press, get frustrated and probably get dropped if the fight drags on.. Cody will come out trying to finish in round 1 for sure though...

I think if Nunes wins it will be by TKO, probably in R1. I played Garbrandt R1 as a hedge at (+675) for 2 full units since his best chance to win will be catching Dom early. Once Cruz adjusts to his repetitive striking combinations, No Love is in for a long night. Can't deny his punching power and killer instinct though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thatch goes balls out in round one always, if he doesn't get the finish and gets tested he quits.. I lost money on that dude in the last 3 fights.. I learned my lesson..

I gotta agree with BJ, dude is skilled but has no heart and he will give up and lose if the fight drags on.. While talented it's still risky to bet big on Thatch right now IMO even against a skill challenged fighter that is undefeated in his UFC debut..

I'm gonna have to hedge myself.. I can't trust Thatch..

What do you plan to hedge with?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ronda didn't try to play the range game with Holly. She charged Holly every chance she got and it backfired cause Holly is a counter striker. That fight was the bull vs. the matador and the matador won.

Amanda is the more explosive fighter and can take anyone out early. Neither girl ha sa lot of experience in deep water fights but we have seen Nunes fade after 2 rounds. IF Ronda charges Nunes early it will give Nunes her best chance of winning.

Nunes will win in R1/R2 or lose.